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-   -   TWG 188: MAD17, Who's Role Is It Anyway? [GAME THREAD] (http://www.flashflashrevolution.com/vbz/showthread.php?t=151148)

MixMasterLar 08-14-2019 10:06 PM

Re: TWG 188: MAD17, Who's Role Is It Anyway? [GAME THREAD]
 
I wouldn't doubt hate blocked me because I was the counterwagon and that would be the technical smartest move made all game from his point of view

But without a claim that's 100% speculation that doesn't do much good.

the sun fan 08-14-2019 10:07 PM

Re: TWG 188: MAD17, Who's Role Is It Anyway? [GAME THREAD]
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by SubaruPoptart (Post 4693323)
So if no antori worlds exist what other worlds could?

some antori worlds exist based on mechanical info, its just that, out of all possible worlds of the two remaining wolves, we know for a fact that antori is in the least number of all of them

all I can eliminate is that its never
sunfan/antori
roundbox/antori
and almost certainly never xelicopter/antori

based on mechanical information

all other worlds exist

the sun fan 08-14-2019 10:10 PM

Re: TWG 188: MAD17, Who's Role Is It Anyway? [GAME THREAD]
 
errr
all other worlds can possibly exist*

MixMasterLar 08-14-2019 10:21 PM

Re: TWG 188: MAD17, Who's Role Is It Anyway? [GAME THREAD]
 
Precarious claim irks me because it's literally giving no new information and all it proves is that he knows something that was already public knowledge

I think I'm more on the side that Antori would try that "I forgot" stint as wolf, it's just I can see it slipping his mind as town too. I think that we shouldn't assume he's "never lying here"

I also, while believe that Roundbox would target SunFan both times, have to admit that SunFan was never a wolf target and that act of doctoring doesn't really rule put he's fakeclaiming either. Had we one less kill to show it would be extremely believable but as it stands it really doesn't prove anything.

I think I'm 100% clearing Xel though it feels like he's working with knowledge he should have and to steal AA's phrasing post read pure.

the sun fan 08-14-2019 10:25 PM

Re: TWG 188: MAD17, Who's Role Is It Anyway? [GAME THREAD]
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Precarious (Post 4692979)
Subaru--feels new. Hard for me to parse so far. Claims an N2 vig shot. After questioning from sunfan, did NOT shoot funnygirl? Means they shot Zenith.
Shot because Zenith had a vote and was thinking "what if." Tone seems honest.
Lots of newness stuff. Probably town, hard to believe they could keep this up while having info elsewhere.

alright precarious
you're dead

the sun fan 08-14-2019 10:28 PM

Re: TWG 188: MAD17, Who's Role Is It Anyway? [GAME THREAD]
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Precarious (Post 4692993)
Subaru--ultra new. Not 100% convinced, but 90% probably--it would be hard to do this as a new wolf.

and later

the sun fan 08-14-2019 10:32 PM

Re: TWG 188: MAD17, Who's Role Is It Anyway? [GAME THREAD]
 
that is /not/ the progression of a read of someone who saw Subaru visit Zenith in the night
Precarious is not the n2 watcher

the sun fan 08-14-2019 10:44 PM

Re: TWG 188: MAD17, Who's Role Is It Anyway? [GAME THREAD]
 
setting up a plan of attack for the night actions now:

I've actually never seen this scenario before, and the proof for it is exceedingly long, so if someone asks me for it, I can give it, you'd just have to give me a long time in order to prove that this is the best course of action

this is actually pretty bonkers

KAYLA AND I NEED TO TARGET THE SAME PLAYER TONIGHT

I am assuming we are lynching precarious after I went back and looked at those subaru reads from the phase before. This plan only has any value if Precarious is a wolf. If Precarious is not a wolf, Kayla and I should do whatever tonight, as should Antori.

Therefore, the only way to extract value from this is for Kayla and I to roleblock the same player (wolves have a really funny outplay and smoke-cloud for cover if we don't)

If there is a nightkill, then that player becomes cleared, unless they are mafia and have been holding onto their strongman kill all this time, which I think is unbelievably unlikely to be the case

so, kayla and I need to figure out who we are both targeting tonight

antori, you should target between kayla and myself tonight
DO NOT SAY WHICH ONE OF US YOU ARE TARGETING

should be the best course of action

and, just repeating this just to be as clear as possible
entirely discard any plans if precarious does not flip red

SubaruPoptart 08-14-2019 10:48 PM

Re: TWG 188: MAD17, Who's Role Is It Anyway? [GAME THREAD]
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by the sun fan (Post 4693334)
setting up a plan of attack for the night actions now:

I've actually never seen this scenario before, and the proof for it is exceedingly long, so if someone asks me for it, I can give it, you'd just have to give me a long time in order to prove that this is the best course of action

this is actually pretty bonkers

KAYLA AND I NEED TO TARGET THE SAME PLAYER TONIGHT

I am assuming we are lynching precarious after I went back and looked at those subaru reads from the phase before. This plan only has any value if Precarious is a wolf. If Precarious is not a wolf, Kayla and I should do whatever tonight, as should Antori.

Therefore, the only way to extract value from this is for Kayla and I to roleblock the same player (wolves have a really funny outplay and smoke-cloud for cover if we don't)

If there is a nightkill, then that player becomes cleared, unless they are mafia and have been holding onto their strongman kill all this time, which I think is unbelievably unlikely to be the case

so, kayla and I need to figure out who we are both targeting tonight

antori, you should target between kayla and myself tonight
DO NOT SAY WHICH ONE OF US YOU ARE TARGETING

should be the best course of action

and, just repeating this just to be as clear as possible
entirely discard any plans if precarious does not flip red

G o t it. Who's Kayla though?

the sun fan 08-14-2019 10:50 PM

Re: TWG 188: MAD17, Who's Role Is It Anyway? [GAME THREAD]
 
also, this should be obvious, but we can't choose antori in that plan to double-roleblock

the sun fan 08-14-2019 10:50 PM

Re: TWG 188: MAD17, Who's Role Is It Anyway? [GAME THREAD]
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by SubaruPoptart (Post 4693335)
G o t it. Who's Kayla though?

psychoangel691

SubaruPoptart 08-14-2019 10:52 PM

Re: TWG 188: MAD17, Who's Role Is It Anyway? [GAME THREAD]
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by the sun fan (Post 4693338)
psychoangel691

O h I thought she was Azlyn cuz that's her thing on twitch

the sun fan 08-14-2019 10:57 PM

Re: TWG 188: MAD17, Who's Role Is It Anyway? [GAME THREAD]
 
DBP's reads:
Lar scummy
funnygurl lock town
svaz lock town
roundbox town
shadow_god scummy
antori/lar together as tinfoil (unlikely)
eventually comes around to lar being prolly town (I think?)
voted shadow_god and encouraged others to do so

these have aged pretty well tbh
entirely possible that all of these, aside from the antori/lar tinfoil, are correct

roundbox 08-14-2019 11:02 PM

Re: TWG 188: MAD17, Who's Role Is It Anyway? [GAME THREAD]
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by the sun fan (Post 4693329)
alright precarious
you're dead

Quote:

Originally Posted by the sun fan (Post 4693331)
that is /not/ the progression of a read of someone who saw Subaru visit Zenith in the night
Precarious is not the n2 watcher

yeah you need to die

roundbox 08-14-2019 11:03 PM

Re: TWG 188: MAD17, Who's Role Is It Anyway? [GAME THREAD]
 
why the fuck didn't I just go with xiz yesterday

remind me to not be a moron and be complacent if we seem ahead again thx

the sun fan 08-14-2019 11:07 PM

Re: TWG 188: MAD17, Who's Role Is It Anyway? [GAME THREAD]
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by roundbox (Post 4693341)
yeah you need to die

I assume you mean precarious needs to die and not me

the sun fan 08-14-2019 11:09 PM

Re: TWG 188: MAD17, Who's Role Is It Anyway? [GAME THREAD]
 


score another for "Sort by postcount; win game"

the sun fan 08-14-2019 11:12 PM

Re: TWG 188: MAD17, Who's Role Is It Anyway? [GAME THREAD]
 
if its precarious/kayla then like
I'm actually in awe of sort-by-postcount

think I'm mostly done posting for tonight

if anyone has any questions about why I think Precarious is always a wolf, or about why I've proposed the night actions be such as they are, lmk

roundbox 08-14-2019 11:19 PM

Re: TWG 188: MAD17, Who's Role Is It Anyway? [GAME THREAD]
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by the sun fan (Post 4693343)
I assume you mean precarious needs to die and not me

of course
if I really wanted you to die I wouldn't have protected you


and uh

Quote:

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar (Post 4693328)
I also, while believe that Roundbox would target SunFan both times, have to admit that SunFan was never a wolf target and that act of doctoring doesn't really rule put he's fakeclaiming either. Had we one less kill to show it would be extremely believable but as it stands it really doesn't prove anything.

why do you say this? I hard disagree

roundbox 08-14-2019 11:20 PM

Re: TWG 188: MAD17, Who's Role Is It Anyway? [GAME THREAD]
 
part of me wants precarious not to be a wolf ONLY BECAUSE sunfan made a comparison to fucking Balls of Fury

I wanted that movie out of my brain


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