Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
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oh wait that might be mine actually |
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as an aside, leetic what is your home community?
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fellow drifters
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Inside of the game though your vote is bad and you should feel bad but past that i await your reads list |
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1) Information. In the late-game we have more information on other players. An inactive player is a ???? that usually necessarily needs to be resolved because their slot is more valuable. That is, the information entropy of each slot is higher in endgame. So when a slot is completely unreadable in Final 5, it's much worse than if that slot is unreadable in Final 15 or w/e. 2) Similar to above--- when we make critical lynches we need them to be informed. D0 is never a critical lynch, so in the world where Inactive X is town, that outcome is less shitty than if you save that lynch for later. 3) Hiding space. Simply put, by killing off potential dead-weight you are necessarily forcing the wolves to engage more, since there will be less hiding room. 4) What happens so many times (read: Animal Crossing game) is that an actual wolf player will get traction in some middle phase, but -somehow- the momentum shifts to an inactive. Usually very hard to tell is anybody is pulling the strings, so we always say "OK, if this inactive is town, ALWAYS ALWAYS lynch this wolfy person" but guess what? There is ALWAYS a fucking way out of it the NEXT phase if there are still inactive presences. This literally is what lost town the last game: our inability to stick to our convictions and instead be distracted by random noise. 5) Making this an actual policy forces wolves in general to post more. This is pro-town since it increases the amount of information we have about each wolf, as well as increasing the volume of incriminating/contradictory/slippish posts there you go |
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Serious post i think DBP's reaction to Haku skews hin town enough that as long as he doesn't take his town read and dips outta the thread until d2 I'm good to take him off the table
I'll never be able to read Haku d0 so he can just get off my table as well. I'll gutread Bolth and FFA as town too but we're not taking them off the table so much as placing them on the lazy susan and spinning them to the far side for a bit |
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I'll provide my cheat sheet if someone wants to win this game as town.
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Like idk if you guys ever played Final Fantasy 10, but if you had Kimahri in your party for the majority of the game, you're gonna have a bad fuckin time in endgame because he sucks. typically you get Kimahri and then never play as him so that those experience points can go to like, Auron or Rikku.
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Just having another read up to speed before dinner...
IDK what to feel about most stuff up to #281. I feel so lost without any meta. (other than the Animal Crossing game obv) I will say that MML vs Haku feels TvT. |
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that's why you cull inactives early on. QED
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active wolves pick off active/easy targets yeah. the question is what are we left with after that's done. a buncha mid-high posters or a buncha nobody posters. your choice |
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surprisingly, I do not get nightkilled very frequently on this forum despite being among the higher posters
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Although, I do think we should stop this discussion. We can argue about the ethics of lynching inactives as long as we want, but none of this is getting us any closer to finding scum. |
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For that, there needs to actually be pressure...I don't think any one person is even close to lynch at this point. How about Haku and their whole interaction with MML? What's your take on it? |
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watching tv is a bad habit tho
my mom watches this thing almost every day called "news" and I swear she's addicted |
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mml
leetic is right |
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If nobody lynches low-posters because "no information" and wolves only nightkill "high-posters" then literally you are gonna be left with a bunch of fucking no-posters and that is quite literally game over. Sure if you have a power-scumread early on go for it. I use to do it all the time until very recently. If you are correct then we have a better best-case scenario. The problem is that the worst-worst-case scenario of doing this brings the game into the shit-tier. The other thing is that your odds of correctly guessing a wolf in D0 is so, so low unless you really have convincing evidence. Most of the time you're trading off a proactive town (which is VERY valuable later on) for an inactivate town (which usually actually gives town a mathematical disadvantage). I'd go as far as to say that the mathematically-optimal best move for ensuring a solid average-case scenario is to lynch the inactive D0. I had the same reservations you do now, I thought of it as an easy wolf copout. But at least on this site, this shit wins games. |
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I mean fuck, people used to call my D0 "Hero Mode" because of how often I deliberately avoided inactives and when balls-to-the-wall on a specific scumread I had. When it works it's badass as fuck but most of the time it's wrong, then the inevitable "well, DBP is wolf because he pushed so hard here", and then the me having to try Hero Mode AGAIN to convince people that I'm actually town, etc.
more of an anecdotal thing which I'm trying to stray away from, and also why I've been advocating more towards democratic&policy-based lynches instead of hot shounen fire |
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yeah man being wrong sucks but on the plus side it makes your scum game a lot better
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the reason why I'm wasting so much of my time explaining this is so that you all actually get it and we don't end in a shitty CFD like we always do |
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except I was the hero and I was a wolf |
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Not sure what I'm expected to do. Throw a hissy fit and type out a bunch of wordy dirds to prove I'm town? Frankly, leetic's case is all the defense i should even need |
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hey I should go ask nutella to be a sub for this game so that we can all reunite, but this time we set the timeline straight and lynch you |
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personally I hear MML's accent when he types
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Without this we'd be sitting here watching Haku spin out of control and whining there wasnt anything going on anyway. |
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at any rate, I think MML, Haku, Xelnya, DUsk are towny you are leaning-town but that also depends on how you engage after you dig on MML Of course in terms of actual lynching psycho, jessie, and xiz is the best pool. Xiz in particular I want to directly engage with because reasons. rest I'm not focusing on so far, maybe ully and bolt on the scummier end of null |
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So like, there aint even nothing for me to defend against here unless i go hulk mode over a meaningless d0 vote |
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Yeah Think it's funny? Perhaps Because? Naaaah |
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You know, the discussion thats been dominating the thread? |
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If you have less than 25 posts, please post more if/when you have free time to do so.
You may have no idea how to go about the game, but it doesn't matter. Our team of trained monkeys need to evaluate your very valuable data. This is an automated message from the haku cbf hotline |
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unless you become an actual serious lynch target, it helps me to watch this play out because stifling conversation/arguments isn't usually a good thing unless it's Haku when two characters argue, usually they either arrive at a Socratic conclusion, OR there will be lingering tension. both outcomes are useful from a game-solving standpoint. for me right now, it's mostly about leetic, but hearing these developments regardless is not a bad thing |
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stand up for you? I've said my opinions already and I don't want to spend all my time on an investigation on something I find stupid that is currently yielding diminishing returns I can say that I think the leetic/MML discussion doesn't seem fruitful in its own sake, I'm not going to railroad the thread about this right now though, and like I said I'd rather see this play out a little bit longer and focus on other things so I can make more useful progress for my own game solving |
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what I was going to say to leetic earlier was that I don't think MML's reaction to leetic voting him is that unusual. I'm more accustomed to town reactions being something like his, or "why?", and asking for actual reasoning
if the voter has a bad case, or a single-liner, townies are more likely not throw a bitch-fit about it, unless the voter is really insistent on the vote leetic's one stated argument is not compelling to me, and MML's reactions to it are mostly what I would expect from towny MML that's all I have to say about that atm |
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I'm just popping off raw thoughts that are (perhaps unfairly) directed at you |
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ok y'all started talking
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I have great expectations of you |
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your tone is more acerbic than i'm used to |
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I was gonna wait for Xiz to come back but I'll just elaborate on this now
Xiz is in the low-poster pool obviously, but this post gave me extra reason to suspect him: Quote:
Normally I wouldn't raise an eyebrow about this, the SK might be part of the game, but there are a few red flags here in particular His response is in terms of "getting information from the game". He asserts that mislynching is better than no-lynching, which is certainly true, even if the mislynch information is from an inactive. But then he says "we ONLY get new information from wolves" which is technically not true because of Power Roles, but ok I can see why you might say that in shorthand. But THEN he tacks on the SK as a source of information which is... not the logical next step there. It's unnatural to stick the SK there and not, like, any other mention of PRs... even if you were thinking of nightkills, then surely there's the Vigi too. Unless something specific is in your consciousness as you type. Add on top of this the fact that this is his only substantive post (out of four posts total), and that to the best of my knowledge, this is the first time anybody has mentioned the Serial Killer. Somebody's got Serial Killer on the mind. IMO that is wolf-aligned. |
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Worth having Xiz answer for. |
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that makes sense
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ii pocketing me hard
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hmm
could dbp be town |
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I think so! |
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Ok i know i typed Uli
Not sure what word autocorrect was reaching for but considering as much as I've mistyped and warped the feature it doesn't surprise me ----- I'm stepping away from the game for a few hours. Wanna see Uli push more and wanna see Leetic address the questions and posts aimed at him. And morw from you Funny Dont quote people, make jokes and then dip, it wouldnt be nice to talk me into a game and then not give it your all. We gotta have you drop serious insights. |
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In general it's really dangerous to reason about other players' states of mind on something like this, which is why I find it important that Xiz come back and have something specific to respond to so that we can directly engage with him
I know he's playing FF14, which is gonna take some time from him, but I'm hoping that any kind of further interaction will at least steer us in the right direction |
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