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-   -   TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread] (http://www.flashflashrevolution.com/vbz/showthread.php?t=149562)

Celirra 08-28-2018 01:17 PM

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 
I'm as clear as tps is

inDheart 08-28-2018 01:22 PM

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Celirra (Post 4646613)
I'm as clear as tps is

if he's town, yes

if he's a wolf, you're clear just by virtue of there being no other scum in the game

+ i see reasons why someone could leave tps alive over you once that world's game goes to singleball

inDheart 08-28-2018 02:02 PM

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 
like lemme just write up a fuller explainer maybe of why i'm saying what i'm saying

i'm town. fg and blind will be able to substitute my name for their own throughout this post, because either they are both town and that's how they should be viewing the game state too, or they are both scum and that's how they can pretend the same

cel is always town here. either he is cleared from a real-claiming tps hiding behind him, or tps is exactly the wolf, the setup is RRTTTTT and there's no SK for him to possibly be

tps is """clear""" by claim, and his claim has created a POE that means believing it requires me to believe that blind and fg are exactly the scum. we could lynch tps today, but i would be equally happy with a lynch into either of blind or fg, because that either removes one of the hypothetical scum factions from the game, or they flip town, send the game to f3, and both i and whoever we didn't lynch know something's fishy and lynch tps there

like, say we lynch fg today and she flips town - tomorrow blind and i always lynch tps, no exception, because the game state makes no sense with any other scum. say we lynch fg today and she flips wolf - fmpov blind is always the SK and the game goes to final 3 and he and i thunderdome, with either cel or tps having the hammer

i guess i get your worry about the last scenario there, having to actually play the final 3 in the multiball world, but i find myself believing less and less that that's the world we're in anyway

inDheart 08-28-2018 02:04 PM

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 
lol RRTTTTT basically just means we're playing a cop setup but as a full game

that's kinda funny

inDheart 08-28-2018 02:06 PM

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 
i guess this goes without saying but

do not believe tps if he ever rescinds or changes his claim

blindreper1179 08-28-2018 02:19 PM

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 
I have a question celery. Yes it is serious and no i don't want a sarcastic answer.


Are you the sk using tps's claim to help you advance? I get this may be silly, and you'll because of it, but i want to know.

blindreper1179 08-28-2018 02:19 PM

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 
You'll lose because*

blindreper1179 08-28-2018 02:20 PM

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 
And tbh, this is a three way thunder dome between funny, ind, and myself. Yatta yatta yatta, it's not me, it's them spiel.

inDheart 08-28-2018 02:30 PM

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by blindreper1179 (Post 4646621)
And tbh, this is a three way thunder dome between funny, ind, and myself. Yatta yatta yatta, it's not me, it's them spiel.

i mean the alternative is we're all town and we realize that and hero lynch tps at 5, but that might be hard to get to

guess something i can do with my time is look at wolf interactions looping in tps this time instead

Celirra 08-28-2018 02:34 PM

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 
If I'm the sk and tps is a wolf, then theres another 1 letter unknown, which is impossible
The exception is if tps did not actually hide behind me but I dont know what he would gain by lying

inDheart 08-28-2018 02:49 PM

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Celirra (Post 4646623)
If I'm the sk and tps is a wolf, then theres another 1 letter unknown, which is impossible
The exception is if tps did not actually hide behind me but I dont know what he would gain by lying

he gains preventing town from being able to pin down the setup. he doesn't gain anything as town, which is why i think he's never fake claiming as town

but either way you can't be SK

Celirra 08-28-2018 03:02 PM

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 
That was in response to blind's question
But yes you are right too

blindreper1179 08-28-2018 05:20 PM

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 
Just asking.
My theory was if you're sk, he says he hides behind you, but you know he doesn't because he'd die. You wouldn't kill him until you two took out town first. You would feel safe not being night killed because you didn't react to his defense judging behind you in a negative way. You kill him when Convenient for you.

inDheart 08-28-2018 05:35 PM

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by blindreper1179 (Post 4646632)
Just asking.
My theory was if you're sk, he says he hides behind you, but you know he doesn't because he'd die. You wouldn't kill him until you two took out town first. You would feel safe not being night killed because you didn't react to his defense judging behind you in a negative way. You kill him when Convenient for you.

this can't be the game because then there's a town role that didn't claim or something

would be RRxTTTT to have an SK
tps being real would explain the x, but then means he couldn't have hid behind cel, and he has no reason to lie about that
tps being fake, but cel still being SK, means we don't have that x accounted for

Funnygurl555 08-28-2018 05:36 PM

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 
unvote

ehhhh

inDheart 08-28-2018 05:39 PM

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 
semi-real suggestion: blind/funny/me vote each other in a circle, tps and cel abstain

2/3 chance of lynching scum if that's the world

cases:
1. blind and funny are the scum and the lynch rands to me. in this case they play prisoner's dilemma (33% chance of happening in the "tps is real" world)
2. blind and funny are the scum and the lynch rands to one of them. tps should no-hide tonight and then we play final 3 (67% chance in that world)
3. tps is scum and the lynch rands to...well, any of us. the others who are alive lynch tps tomorrow

Tps222 08-28-2018 05:58 PM

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 
This is how I view it:

5 left, Cel and I are town. InD/Funny/Blind are the other 3, 2 of them are SK/Scum. If we lynch one of those 3 correctly today, we will have a 2v1 with either Cel or myself alive tomorrow assuming one of us two are night killed and I don't hide. That means that tomorrow we have a 50 50 shot at picking the correct person and winning.

If we lynch incorrectly today, it will be Cel/Myself and then SK/Wolf, who then have to decide if they want to go after one another or Cel/Myself. If they go after each other then we obviously win. if the wolf goes after Cel or I, they're risking the SK killing them and them for all purposes losing. If the SK goes after one of us, he risks the wolf killing them and them losing. If they both go after Cel and myself and hit us each, then they get a 1v1 draw, which in my mind is a pretty lame result. All of their options result in either a loss or draw, unless they either both hit the same target or one abstains from killing, this would create a 2v1 where they would hope the other gets lynched to win with a 1-1 ratio. Lynching incorrectly is the worst situation of the three described here imo.

If we no-lynch today, we will create a situation where the wolf and SK won't be able to know who each other are for sure, and this will greatly increase our odds of them hitting one another. The chance of them both targeting cel or I at the same time would create a draw scenario, but if either one of them gets hit then we have a 2v1 scenario the next day. This is our best option if we aren't confident with getting a correct lynching today.

In the three scenarios I described above we have a pretty good chance to get the SK/Wolf to at least night kill one of each other in the no-lynch scenario or win with a coin-flip vote if we lynch correctly today. Please let me know if I'm missing a scenario here or if my math is off.

Celirra 08-28-2018 06:20 PM

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Tps222 (Post 4646638)
This is how I view it:

5 left, Cel and I are town. InD/Funny/Blind are the other 3, 2 of them are SK/Scum. If we lynch one of those 3 correctly today, we will have a 2v1 with either Cel or myself alive tomorrow assuming one of us two are night killed and I don't hide. That means that tomorrow we have a 50 50 shot at picking the correct person and winning.

If we lynch incorrectly today, it will be Cel/Myself and then SK/Wolf, who then have to decide if they want to go after one another or Cel/Myself. If they go after each other then we obviously win. if the wolf goes after Cel or I, they're risking the SK killing them and them for all purposes losing. If the SK goes after one of us, he risks the wolf killing them and them losing. If they both go after Cel and myself and hit us each, then they get a 1v1 draw, which in my mind is a pretty lame result. All of their options result in either a loss or draw, unless they either both hit the same target or one abstains from killing, this would create a 2v1 where they would hope the other gets lynched to win with a 1-1 ratio. Lynching incorrectly is the worst situation of the three described here imo.

If we no-lynch today, we will create a situation where the wolf and SK won't be able to know who each other are for sure, and this will greatly increase our odds of them hitting one another. The chance of them both targeting cel or I at the same time would create a draw scenario, but if either one of them gets hit then we have a 2v1 scenario the next day. This is our best option if we aren't confident with getting a correct lynching today.

In the three scenarios I described above we have a pretty good chance to get the SK/Wolf to at least night kill one of each other in the no-lynch scenario or win with a coin-flip vote if we lynch correctly today. Please let me know if I'm missing a scenario here or if my math is off.

Sunfan is secretly yelling at you

I dont think it's a good idea because I've been bullied about the basis behind this for a while this game

Tps222 08-28-2018 07:10 PM

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 
I feel bad that I wasn't around enough initially to remember what you had said regarding this, care to remind me?

YoshL 08-28-2018 08:14 PM

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 
Votes from post 2904 to post 2959
Night in 2:46:46

---
  • Votes -- Lynch -- Voters
  • 1 -- unvote -- Funnygurl555 (8)
  • 4 -- not voting -- blindreper1179 (8), Celirra (13), inDheart (22), Tps222 (3)


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