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-   -   TWG 194 - Game Thread (http://www.flashflashrevolution.com/vbz/showthread.php?t=151853)

Duskfall 04-30-2020 05:07 PM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by ShadoWolfe (Post 4728370)
You were quicker than me, but you're wrong too.

The binomial probability of rolling 3 Cs out of 7, where the chance of each C is 1/10, is roughly 2.296%

I cheated tho I used a calculator
https://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial.aspx

i realised i was wrong after but you are also wrong LOL

its around 1 percent because its 2 cs out of 5 since we already have 1 c and 1 v given

Hakulyte 04-30-2020 05:08 PM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 
I think you're forgetting that we only need 2 wrong votes to have a vote rush into a mislynch.

leetic 04-30-2020 05:09 PM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Duskfall (Post 4728372)
i realised i was wrong after but you are also wrong LOL

its around 1 percent because its 2 cs out of 5 since we already have 1 c and 1 v given

But the one C and one V were rolled with the rest of the numbers, so leaving them out skews the results

ShadoWolfe 04-30-2020 05:10 PM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by leetic (Post 4728369)
How are you doing it? For me it's (1/10)^3*(9/10)*4=about 0.00065

Oh the mistake here is that you're calculating for 3 consecutive C rolls and then 4 consecutive non-C rolls and then taking the odds of both those events happening.
No wonder it's such a small chance.

Duskfall 04-30-2020 05:12 PM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by leetic (Post 4728374)
But the one C and one V were rolled with the rest of the numbers, so leaving them out skews the results

you are calculating the odds of mikey's claim being correct now, not pre roll, and we have more info now so not including it makes the odds of him being that role incorrect because the knowledge you have skews the odds. If you are calculating the pre roll odds of him being C then you would actually need to remove the fact you are already claimed 1 shot cop because that does not effect the result you are trying to look for and you should be account for every scenario thats has more than one C, as all those setups allow for a cop and therefore for mikey to claim cop.

ShadoWolfe 04-30-2020 05:12 PM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Duskfall (Post 4728372)
i realised i was wrong after but you are also wrong LOL



its around 1 percent because its 2 cs out of 5 since we already have 1 c and 1 v given

No. It's 3 Cs out of 7. The V just gets treated as a non-C roll and you'd never take out anything because the setup was rolled out of 7

Duskfall 04-30-2020 05:13 PM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by ShadoWolfe (Post 4728377)
No. It's 3 Cs out of 7. The V just gets treated as a non-C roll and you'd never take out anything because the setup was rolled out of 7

what are you trying to calculate exactly?

Hakulyte 04-30-2020 05:14 PM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 
I feel like we should lynch every PRs who claims something in every C9 games with numbers like that.

That doesn't make sense to me.

Duskfall 04-30-2020 05:15 PM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hakulyte (Post 4728379)
I feel like we should lynch every PRs who claims something in every C9 games with numbers like that.

That doesn't make sense to me.

its because they are calculating the pre roll odds of someone rolling a specific pr in a specific setup, all the setups have incredibly low chances of happening but that doesnt mean they dont happen and no matter what pr someone is, the chance of that pr occuring in any given setup is low because there is an incredible amount of variables in this setup

Duskfall 04-30-2020 05:16 PM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 
btw lynching based on statistics like this is obviously terrible and irrelevant to the game in real terms

Makilaz 04-30-2020 05:18 PM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 
Vote Count:
5/1 @ 19:00

00:59 = GOOD
00:00 = BAD


==============

flashflash account [3]
DaBackpack, MixMasterLar, leetic

DaBackpack [2]
flashflash account, Duskfall

jessiebessie [1]
ShadoWolfe

Duskfall [1]
Bolth mannn

Duskfall 04-30-2020 05:19 PM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 
if you look at it in a different way, given we have 1 C and 1 V already that leaves 5 letters remaining

using the knowledge we have right now, if we were to assume 5 Ts, then the odds of that is 0.5 to the power of 5, about 3 percent

so about 97 percent of more power rolls exisiting, there are just so many worlds of different power rolls that the odds of every little thing occuring is small. It is not a convenient world of "oh such a small chance", it is a case of out of many possibilities and possible claims, probably hundreds, this is the one world we are in because we have to be in one so it is not that convenient a number

ShadoWolfe 04-30-2020 05:19 PM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 
Stop guys stop, this is besides the point. The odds of 3 Cs out of 7 is 2.296.

Leetic, I've seen this setup with 3 doctors on here and with 3 cops before too. These things happen

The fact is that there's a red check and the way to resolve it is to lynch the red check to resolve the cop claim. Either FFA is lying and he gets lynched tomorrow or he's not and you can tinfoil on them being partners all you want, though no one will ever follow you on it

Hakulyte 04-30-2020 05:19 PM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 
The odds of mislynch in this scenario is extremely high because wolves just have to push the balance on the wrong side.

If there's not a strong argument going over one side or another, this will end poorly.

ShadoWolfe 04-30-2020 05:22 PM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Duskfall (Post 4728378)
what are you trying to calculate exactly?

The same thing leetic originally was. The probability of there being 3 Cs out of 7 rolls

Duskfall 04-30-2020 05:22 PM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 
it is like saying "oh aliens dont exist on this planet because the odds of that are close to infinitely unlikely", because of all the planets in the universe it is extremelly unlikely any given planet does not have life. But in the grand scheme of things there is probably life on one planet.

So mikey's claim is unlikely to be the case the same way me typing this exact post was unlikely to be the case. But someone was also going to be some pr someone (or very likely to be) and in this case it just so happens it is mikey and he is a cop.

Duskfall 04-30-2020 05:22 PM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by ShadoWolfe (Post 4728384)
Stop guys stop, this is besides the point. The odds of 3 Cs out of 7 is 2.296.

Leetic, I've seen this setup with 3 doctors on here and with 3 cops before too. These things happen

The fact is that there's a red check and the way to resolve it is to lynch the red check to resolve the cop claim. Either FFA is lying and he gets lynched tomorrow or he's not and you can tinfoil on them being partners all you want, though no one will ever follow you on it

ok that calculation doesnt even make sense to make still but i think we have tangented way too much LOL

Hakulyte 04-30-2020 05:29 PM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by ShadoWolfe (Post 4728384)
you can tinfoil on them being partners all you want, though no one will ever follow you on it

That's spicy. I should note that for my future wolf games.

flashflash account 04-30-2020 05:31 PM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hakulyte (Post 4728389)
That's spicy. I should note that for my future wolf games.

jokes aside, me being partners with dbp and bussing for cred makes slightly more sense than me sacrificing myself to defend jess

and it's not even lylo

Hakulyte 04-30-2020 05:34 PM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 
I don't seriously think jess has anything to do with you two on that.


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