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-   -   TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread] (http://www.flashflashrevolution.com/vbz/showthread.php?t=149562)

the sun fan 08-25-2018 05:23 PM

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 
tbh I think the only way town loses is to the serial killer or if Tps is somehow fake which it really, really, really looks like isn't the case

Celirra 08-25-2018 06:53 PM

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 
youre gonna be mad at me
but my first thought actually when today's events happened was "what if sunfan and tps are w/w"

blindreper1179 08-25-2018 06:59 PM

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 
you're grounded, don't come back to the thread until you've realized what you've done, and have learned your lesson.

the sun fan 08-25-2018 07:02 PM

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Celirra (Post 4646070)
youre gonna be mad at me
but my first thought actually when today's events happened was "what if sunfan and tps are w/w"

literally impossible because there can only be 3 wolves so

I don't know what you've been smoking to get 27 on that rice test but give me some I felt like my number was too high

the sun fan 08-25-2018 07:12 PM

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 
something to keep in mind just in case Tps/Freezin talked and planned this out and decided that their best path to victory involved Freezin committing sudoku

if Tps is alive in f4/f3, a serial killer has not flipped, and there has never been more than 1 visible KP in a night (meaning that there has never been more than 1 death in a night phase), lynch him. The quickest he can win is f3 and if its at that point of the game where there's just been 1 nightkill every night forever, I think that'd be the only point where I'd consider lynching him.

before that point, I think I am going to stop thinking about whether or not he is fake (if he is the last wolf then we know there is not a serial killer so there's nothing to worry about there).

the sun fan 08-25-2018 07:14 PM

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 
for now, precarious

Celirra 08-25-2018 07:57 PM

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by the sun fan (Post 4646080)
I don't know what you've been smoking to get 27 on that rice test but give me some I felt like my number was too high

hey I got 38
I blame one week for a lot of those points

also you know im pretty much anti drugs and haven't/wouldn't touch 'em

but i too am surprised you were so high

Celirra 08-25-2018 08:05 PM

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 
hey so like


should we discuss strategy for tps hiding this phase as a pseudo-seer?

Celirra 08-25-2018 08:06 PM

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 
actually theres a chance that if we do that we lose

7 right now
if tps hides behind a town and we choreograph it then thats -2
then the faction that didnt kill the town he hides behind kills another
puts us at 4
and then I think we cant win

Precarious 08-25-2018 08:08 PM

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 
The Freezin death is weird.

Here's what we know: the seven-roll is dependent on town roles; anti-town roles are merely a result of the number. Freezin lied. Tps has claimed blue; all other remaining players claimed vanilla.

Tps is either telling the truth (blue town), or is lying (scum/SK).

That means the starting state was either RRxTTTT (assuming truthful Tps) or RRTTTTT (assuming anti-town Tps).

Truthful Tps gives us TTTT, which is 2 goons, a JOAT, and an SK.
Fake Tps gives us TTTTT, which is 2 goons and a bus driver.

Fake Tps is problematic, but possible. It requires the scum team to sacrifice Freezin in order to more firmly cement Tps as town. Both Freezin and Tps were likely town yesterday, due to their claims; however, their blue claims would make them popular night targets. Each day both survived would be suspicious, and Xiz's death left them with no path to LYLO or MILO today. Therefore, both would survive multiple nights post-massclaim, which could look suspicious. Tps also waited to "read" yesterday before generically claiming blue, which may have involved the wolves determining the safest course of action going forward.

On the other hand, this would be an extremely reckless gambit (if we assume a scum self-kill). If Tps is a wolf, then there is no SK, and he is the only remaining anti-town player in the game, now facing a brutal 6:1 slog toward victory. Tps would be forced to survive on his own without any accompanying votes, leaving him vulnerable to any shift in the thread overmeta (and with a case such as the previous paragraph available). Given that Tps' role is unrevealed, and because there's not really a counterclaim possibility in this format, the potential hider/doctor-jailkeeper dichotomy would make both blues surviving at least plausible the first night.

If Tps is telling the truth, things are more complicated. TTTT necessitates the inclusion of a serial killer, which is...odd. (It's worth noting that Tps can't be the SK, since TTTT requires an additional blue, and everyone else has claimed vanilla). If there is a SK, then we have to assume they either accidentally or deliberately didn't shoot the first two nights, or that Tps has a defensive power (hider/jailkeeper/doctor--can't be a commuter because that requires the existence of both a hider and a 1-shot commuter) which stymied a kill by either wolves or SK. Bluntly, there has been only one kill each night, which would mean even assuming the SK used up a vest, SK or wolves would have had to have misfired due to Tps' defensive powers twice.

We're thus left with the scenario that the SK was waiting in the shadows (I don't buy inactivity, since everyone has been relatively active other than Tps, and while he can be a wolf, he can't be a serial killer), or that three separate kill actions failed in a game that might not even have a single protective power.

The only other possible explanation for the night result is that Tps is a Vigilante and shot Freezin--and that simply doesn't work. RRKTTTT gives us a SK (and the extra shot per night that assumes), while also suggesting that town-Tps shot Freezin despite Freezin's claim apparently syncing with his knowledge of the game state (the now proven false RRKKTTT, which seemed likely yesterday given the assumed lack of an SK).

*************************
*************************

Therefore, we're left with two possibilities.

1. Tps is a wolf. All other remaining players are town.

2. Tps is a town power role. Of the other remaining players, one is a wolf and one is a serial killer.

Assuming (2.), all living player interactions are out the window as far as worldbuilding goes. There are no anti-town allies remaining; the wolf and SK would oppose each other, and wouldn't know who the other is anyway. However, past interactions with and from both Xiz and Freezin are still relevant.

the sun fan 08-25-2018 08:10 PM

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Celirra (Post 4646095)
actually theres a chance that if we do that we lose

7 right now
if tps hides behind a town and we choreograph it then thats -2
then the faction that didnt kill the town he hides behind kills another
puts us at 4
and then I think we cant win

town sleeps and hopes the anti-towns kill one another in the night, or that the wolf kills the sk but hits a vest, and the sk kills the wolf
OR
the wolf roleblocks the sk and the sk tries to kill the wolf

that's town's only out in that f4 scenario if the 2 towns are vanilla

the sun fan 08-25-2018 08:12 PM

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Celirra (Post 4646094)
hey so like


should we discuss strategy for tps hiding this phase as a pseudo-seer?

beyond telling him that he shouldn't hide behind me or you again, which he probably already knows, I don't see too much point in that because if he is real town can potentially get put in a really bad situation like you outlined

its not too likely but I think I do agree with you here that being conservative seems to be for the best

the sun fan 08-25-2018 08:17 PM

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 
the game is like
so boring if Tps is a wolf

he plays to his out of repping hider until f4/f3, probably f3, and then gets lynched if there's been no more than 1 nightkill every night and no sk has flipped, which is what would happen if he is the last wolf, and then loses

I really hope that's not the case is all

Precarious 08-25-2018 08:18 PM

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 
Our mechanical best course of action for now is to assume that Tps is telling the truth.

I'm more skeptical of him than most, given that all scenarios with an SK require unlikely results, but the alternative is far more dangerous--a lone Tps shouldn't be a great threat.

Because if he's lying, then he is by definition the only remaining anti-town player, and can be lynched at any point, and I feel like that will become more obvious as the player pool whittles. Because for him to be telling the truth, there must be both a wolf and a serial killer present in the game that isn't him, and neither appearing as the game narrows would make Tps look bad in the end game.

the sun fan 08-25-2018 08:22 PM

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Precarious (Post 4646101)
Our mechanical best course of action for now is to assume that Tps is telling the truth.

I'm more skeptical of him than most, given that all scenarios with an SK require unlikely results, but the alternative is far more dangerous--a lone Tps shouldn't be a great threat.

Because if he's lying, then he is by definition the only remaining anti-town player, and can be lynched at any point, and I feel like that will become more obvious as the player pool whittles. Because for him to be telling the truth, there must be both a wolf and a serial killer present in the game that isn't him, and neither appearing as the game narrows would make Tps look bad in the end game.

agreed
that's y I wanna lynch u tho

Celirra 08-25-2018 08:27 PM

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 
isnt this technically potentially mylo

the sun fan 08-25-2018 08:28 PM

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Celirra (Post 4646103)
isnt this technically potentially mylo

if you argue for sleeping I swear to god I'm never speaking to you again

Celirra 08-25-2018 08:30 PM

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 
uhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

Celirra 08-25-2018 08:30 PM

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 
:D ?

Celirra 08-25-2018 08:30 PM

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 


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