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-   -   TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD (http://www.flashflashrevolution.com/vbz/showthread.php?t=143935)

Hakulyte 03-2-2016 11:03 PM

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 
Look, storn is dead, you should be happy and thank the SK.

DaBackpack 03-2-2016 11:03 PM

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Red Blaster (Post 4413415)
Can we just insta today?

please fontisian

j-rodd123 03-2-2016 11:03 PM

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 
sigh

Hakulyte 03-2-2016 11:04 PM

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 
I'm up for it too.

fontisian

DaBackpack 03-2-2016 11:04 PM

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 
6 people left, careful insta is a 4

Red Blaster 03-2-2016 11:05 PM

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by DaBackpack (Post 4413416)
Regarding the no mafia nightkill, the other option is that AA was a mafia, which I am rejecting outright

Even if he was a mafia hit, I don't think we were in a one mafia world.

j-rodd123 03-2-2016 11:05 PM

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 
i hate myself

DaBackpack 03-2-2016 11:05 PM

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Red Blaster (Post 4413424)
Even if he was a mafia hit, I don't think we were in a one mafia world.

which scares me but we will have to deal with that eventually

Hakulyte 03-2-2016 11:05 PM

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 
What's up jrodd?

Red Blaster 03-2-2016 11:06 PM

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 
I'm down with a font insta, but I'd at least like Xiz to weigh in first

DaBackpack 03-2-2016 11:06 PM

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 
if there is still a mafia left we enter final 4 I think

j-rodd123 03-2-2016 11:07 PM

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 
so if you think mafia hit fonti last night, but haku's medic save on fonti earlier was a reason, then how would that work out

j-rodd123 03-2-2016 11:07 PM

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 
was a reason there was no kill*

DaBackpack 03-2-2016 11:08 PM

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by j-rodd123 (Post 4413430)
so if you think mafia hit fonti last night, but haku's medic save on fonti earlier was a reason, then how would that work out

mafia targeted font (SK) -> saved by Haku
mafia targeted font last night -> bulletproof went off

DaBackpack 03-2-2016 11:09 PM

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 
first one should be vendetta*

Hakulyte 03-2-2016 11:09 PM

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 
My theory is that Mafia is dead and that there's only fonti left.

It's not a bulletproof theory, but I like dreaming.

#that pun

j-rodd123 03-2-2016 11:09 PM

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 
oh im really tired from studying, my brain is fried lol my bad

DaBackpack 03-2-2016 11:09 PM

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hakulyte (Post 4413435)
My theory is that Mafia is dead and that there's only fonti left.

It's not a bulletproof theory, but I like dreaming.

#that pun

we can pray

Red Blaster 03-2-2016 11:10 PM

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 
I'm honestly surprised the sk killed.
I would've no killed and gone utr

j-rodd123 03-2-2016 11:10 PM

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 
fontisian

Hakulyte 03-2-2016 11:12 PM

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 
Prepare for massive bullshit if it's not over.

DaBackpack 03-2-2016 11:12 PM

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 
i know this is a completely worthless thing to say

but if a mafia member is still alive and can tell us if they targeted font, that would be really great right now

j-rodd123 03-2-2016 11:13 PM

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 
if it continues and haku isn't the godfather, then we might have to have a DBP/xiz thunderdome :O

Hakulyte 03-2-2016 11:14 PM

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 
jrodd, on what grounds are you lock clear btw?

DaBackpack 03-2-2016 11:15 PM

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 
yeah I thought about Haku some more, I don't think he would try to defend botchi in the scenario when he claimed if he was a wolf

if there's a wolf it's between jrodd and xiz, but I think the mafia were wiped out

j-rodd123 03-2-2016 11:15 PM

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 
because like duh!

Hakulyte 03-2-2016 11:16 PM

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 
How are you certain that I'm 100% Town?

j-rodd123 03-2-2016 11:16 PM

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by DaBackpack (Post 4413446)
yeah I thought about Haku some more, I don't think he would try to defend botchi in the scenario when he claimed if he was a wolf

if there's a wolf it's between jrodd and xiz, but I think the mafia were wiped out

im now thinking storn wasnt a wolf so it would be AA which would cause the mafia team to be eliminated

Hakulyte 03-2-2016 11:16 PM

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 
..because I'm pretty sure you said that 2-3 times by now.

j-rodd123 03-2-2016 11:17 PM

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hakulyte (Post 4413450)
How are you certain that I'm 100% Town?

im not, but it's a leap of faith ive taken to POE this game ive joined 2 weeks too late

j-rodd123 03-2-2016 11:18 PM

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 
100% certainty is silly to say. if youre a godfather then gg youve put up a hell of a performance, ill reread your earlier stuff if we're both alive at a next phase and put that in the context of lynches and who i think are def misses and maybe hits

otherwise i think it's highly unlikely from a statistical perspective and based on your volume and actions

DaBackpack 03-2-2016 11:19 PM

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by j-rodd123 (Post 4413457)
100% certainty is silly to say. if youre a godfather then gg youve put up a hell of a performance, ill reread your earlier stuff if we're both alive at a next phase and put that in the context of lynches and who i think are def misses and maybe hits

otherwise i think it's highly unlikely from a statistical perspective and based on your volume and actions

can you explain your references to godfather? what does that have to do with anything?

j-rodd123 03-2-2016 11:20 PM

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 
xiz asked the question earlier about godfather

thesunfan 03-2-2016 11:21 PM

Vote Count
 
Votes from post 3593 to post 3632
Night in 47:39:27

---
  • Votes -- Lynch -- Voters
  • 3 -- fontisian -- DaBackpack (15), Hakulyte (9), j-rodd123 (11)
  • 3 -- not voting -- fontisian (0), Red Blaster (4), Xiz (0)

*** MAJORITY LYNCH IN POST 3620 ***

thesunfan 03-2-2016 11:21 PM

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 
majority has not been met, ignore that

j-rodd123 03-2-2016 11:22 PM

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 
lol vote counter cant count

j-rodd123 03-2-2016 11:23 PM

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 
so i think it's about bed time, it's quite late

DaBackpack 03-2-2016 11:24 PM

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 
how do you feel about this lynch RB?

j-rodd123 03-2-2016 11:25 PM

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 
are these questions validating you in any way dbp

DaBackpack 03-2-2016 11:25 PM

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by j-rodd123 (Post 4413469)
are these questions validating you in any way dbp

he was opposed to it yesterday, so I'm trying to find if that changed or not

Hakulyte 03-2-2016 11:26 PM

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 
What if AA and storn were both wolves?

j-rodd123 03-2-2016 11:26 PM

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by DaBackpack (Post 4413468)
how do you feel about this lynch RB?

well i mean he did just say this


Quote:

Originally Posted by Red Blaster (Post 4413428)
I'm down with a font insta, but I'd at least like Xiz to weigh in first


DaBackpack 03-2-2016 11:27 PM

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by j-rodd123 (Post 4413473)
well i mean he did just say this

whoops

j-rodd123 03-2-2016 11:27 PM

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hakulyte (Post 4413472)
What if AA and storn were both wolves?

upon reanalyzing yesterday and rereading a bit deeper, the probability AA was a wolf > the probability of storn being a wolf. and they were like ~never wolf/wolf so i hate to burst your tinfoily bubble but that's not the case

Red Blaster 03-2-2016 11:27 PM

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by DaBackpack (Post 4413468)
how do you feel about this lynch RB?

Meh I don't know.
If Font is the SK and was actually hit last night, lynching her now would be us doing the mafias job for them.

Here's another theory: what if wgen Haku covered V, the mafia hit someone else who actually was the SK?

Red Blaster 03-2-2016 11:28 PM

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Red Blaster (Post 4413478)
Meh I don't know.
If Font is the SK and was actually hit last night, lynching her now would be us doing the mafias job for them.

Here's another theory: what if wgen Haku covered V, the mafia hit someone else who actually was the SK?

Nevermind shitty theory and completely useless

j-rodd123 03-2-2016 11:29 PM

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Red Blaster (Post 4413478)
Meh I don't know.
If Font is the SK and was actually hit last night, lynching her now would be us doing the mafias job for them.

Here's another theory: what if wgen Haku covered V, the mafia hit someone else who actually was the SK?

that was the other thing i was thinking, and once again the answer boils down to DBP/xiz

Hakulyte 03-2-2016 11:29 PM

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 
That's starting to be complex shenanigans even for my wild imagination.

DaBackpack 03-2-2016 11:29 PM

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Red Blaster (Post 4413478)
Meh I don't know.
If Font is the SK and was actually hit last night, lynching her now would be us doing the mafias job for them.

Here's another theory: what if wgen Haku covered V, the mafia hit someone else who actually was the SK?

my problem is that we don't know if there are even any mafia remaining, whereas we are certain there is a SK remaining

Red Blaster 03-2-2016 11:31 PM

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 
Jrodd out of Font and Dap who would you think more likely to be the SK?

j-rodd123 03-2-2016 11:31 PM

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 
i wonder why the SK killed storn anyway. prolly went wolf hunting and hit a town LOLOL you

j-rodd123 03-2-2016 11:32 PM

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Red Blaster (Post 4413487)
Jrodd out of Font and Dap who would you think more likely to be the SK?

again, i hate SK hunting. i thought yesterday it made perfect sense for it to be font, but i see 0 reason why it can't be DBP

Hakulyte 03-2-2016 11:32 PM

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 
Having me and DBP still alive at this point in the game is making me deeply confused.

I'm probably overthinking.

j-rodd123 03-2-2016 11:33 PM

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 
i just dont like playing with SKs but thats a me problem, theyre way more crapshooty to find

Hakulyte 03-2-2016 11:33 PM

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 
So, let's say we lynch fonti and it's a miss.

What could happen tomorrow?

j-rodd123 03-2-2016 11:33 PM

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hakulyte (Post 4413490)
Having me and DBP still alive at this point in the game is making me deeply confused.

I'm probably overthinking.

what does a combo of you AND dbp mean? do you just mean you think he was super clear?

j-rodd123 03-2-2016 11:34 PM

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 
6 people, let's say 1 wolf and SK. we mislynch 5 through the night, let's say 2 town get killed, it's the classic wolf/SK/villager f3 but the SK can't claim in that gambit. essentially it's possible for town to lose today if at least 1 wolf is left

Red Blaster 03-2-2016 11:34 PM

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by j-rodd123 (Post 4413489)
again, i hate SK hunting. i thought yesterday it made perfect sense for it to be font, but i see 0 reason why it can't be DBP

I only ask because I think you're human and you made that post about how dap's never mafia here based off of your experience with him

Hakulyte 03-2-2016 11:35 PM

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 
Anyone here is heavily convinced Xiz is Town?

j-rodd123 03-2-2016 11:36 PM

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Red Blaster (Post 4413495)
I only ask because I think you're human and you made that post about how dap's never mafia here based off of your experience with him

yea i did, and i pretty much stand by that. if he's a wolf, like AA said, then it was a complete shift from his wolf meta. when i played with DBP and he was a wolf there was a lot of slanking, and it was FROZEN city. here hes lead poster and actively doing stuff. now maybe the veil of no cardflips could lead to more confident wolf play, that's a possibility

DaBackpack 03-2-2016 11:36 PM

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hakulyte (Post 4413496)
Anyone here is heavily convinced Xiz is Town?

not heavily, but sort of

j-rodd123 03-2-2016 11:37 PM

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hakulyte (Post 4413496)
Anyone here is heavily convinced Xiz is Town?

i've come to switch DBP and xiz in my POE order with DBP trending up and xiz trending down. i still think his presence in the thread has been more towny than not tho

Red Blaster 03-2-2016 11:37 PM

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 
What if we elect to no lynch to see how the night actions pan out?

j-rodd123 03-2-2016 11:37 PM

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 
unvote

you all can insta without me because i have to go to bed really soon and dont really see a point leaving my vote on fonti when we can tinfoil a lot more!

DaBackpack 03-2-2016 11:38 PM

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Red Blaster (Post 4413500)
What if we elect to no lynch to see how the night actions pan out?

this might work actually

If there are no mafia kills, there is only SK, and we don't accidentally mislynch

If there are mafia kill, then the SK is dead, and there is only mafia

j-rodd123 03-2-2016 11:39 PM

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Red Blaster (Post 4413500)
What if we elect to no lynch to see how the night actions pan out?

i think i like this plan. ill decide tomorrow because like ive said im super tired right now. did someone mention that the wolf team can't no kill but the SK can? clicking the OP to check the rules is too much work

DaBackpack 03-2-2016 11:39 PM

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 
my question is, would the mafia ever NOT shoot the SK tonight?

j-rodd123 03-2-2016 11:40 PM

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 
ok i checked the OP, wolves can't no-kill but SK does so night actions will be very telling

Hakulyte 03-2-2016 11:40 PM

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 
No-Kill Off (For Mafia only)

^ Mafia is forced to shoot something.

DaBackpack 03-2-2016 11:41 PM

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hakulyte (Post 4413507)
No-Kill Off (For Mafia only)

^ Mafia is forced to shoot something.

basically no-lynching here guarantees that in the next phase, there is only ONE anti-town faction

(which is why I asked the above question to make sure)

j-rodd123 03-2-2016 11:41 PM

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 
the SK no killing would be a pretty bad play anyway because it's a heavy POE right now and it's not like that would clear them in any way

j-rodd123 03-2-2016 11:42 PM

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by DaBackpack (Post 4413508)
basically no-lynching here guarantees that in the next phase, there is only ONE anti-town faction

(which is why I asked the above question to make sure)

i imagine if the wolves shot the SK they would finish them off, yes. especially if theres one wolf it's not worth having the SK alive and could shoot them at whim

Hakulyte 03-2-2016 11:47 PM

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 
I'd rather take a risk and possibly end the game here tbh even if I understand why we could wait.

Hakulyte 03-2-2016 11:49 PM

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 
What's the winning scenario if we no lynch and there's 1 wolf and a SK?
What's the winning scenario if we no lynch and there's only 1 SK but it's not fonti?

Red Blaster 03-2-2016 11:51 PM

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hakulyte (Post 4413511)
I'd rather take a risk and possibly end the game here tbh even if I understand why we could wait.

I say we sleep on it and let Xiz and Font het a chance to weigh in

Hakulyte 03-2-2016 11:53 PM

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 
Fine, I have nothing against waiting until EoD.

DaBackpack 03-2-2016 11:54 PM

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 
unvote

Hakulyte 03-2-2016 11:55 PM

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 
Actually, I do. I work overtime tomorrow and I won't be here to vote or unvote past a certain point in time.

Hakulyte 03-2-2016 11:55 PM

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 
Just doing this in case you guys want to no lynch in the end and fonti is stuck on 1 vote.

unvote

Red Blaster 03-2-2016 11:56 PM

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hakulyte (Post 4413512)
What's the winning scenario if we no lynch and there's 1 wolf and a SK?
What's the winning scenario if we no lynch and there's only 1 SK but it's not fonti?

If there's a mafia and SK kill I think mafia have no choice but to kill the sk at this point unless they are super ballsy, but given the SK knows neither you or myself are mafia they have a fairly narrow pool to shoot in so yeah.

If it's just an SK kill, we lynch fonti 100%..if the game goes on after that then whoever is left between Xiz and Dap would go next


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