Stock Market Chit Chat
 

hello, with the recent boom of new retail investors and the general age demographic of this forum slowly rising over time, i wanted to see if anybody else here dabbles in the stock market or even just financial planning. you know, the basic 401k, roth IRAs, things like that.

recently the only things i'm really passionate about is the stock market. we've seen a "once in a generation" type of collapse earlier this year with the introduction of COVID-19 and economy shutdowns. this is like the 2008 global financial crisis, except it happened much faster and much sharper than people expected - in both the DOWN and UP direction.

do you have any comments on the federal reserve, the future of the dollar, commodities like gold and lumber, certain sectors (energy, financials, technology, consumer cyclicals, etc)?



i would like to start off by saying i'm personally very concerned about the possibility of a second stimulus not happening (the powers that be do not reach an agreement in time) and things like eviction moratoriums running out, CARES act mortgage forbearance running out. i feel a housing inventory increase will be happening in the future and when it does, housing prices will crash. maybe the time to buy a house might be coming soon.. prices are super high even though the economy looks doomed from a main street standpoint.

Re: Stock Market Chit Chat
 

figured i might as well post some positions for those who know the speak

15x SPY $350c 10/16
20x QQQ $310c 10/16
10x GLD $190c 9/18 (in case of a 2nd stimulus announced, inflation expected + gold rising)
2x FB $275c 1/15/21
2x BABA $250c 1/15/21
5x SNAP $20c 1/15/21
5x MSFT $215c 10/16

Re: Stock Market Chit Chat
 

I'm dum

Re: Stock Market Chit Chat
 

well with lots of money being printed, the US dollar's buying power's bound to go down. banks will give you crappy %s. having your dollar sit around in cash or in banks for measly 1% interests is not going to help you beat inflation :(

Re: Stock Market Chit Chat
 

yeah but most folks already have to play the game (in terms of where they work / who pays them) to get by. might as well go the extra mile and then redistribute on a small scale.

that's my only contribution to this thread though, I have an open roth ira and never look at it, hopefully it trends ok enough in the long term lol

Re: Stock Market Chit Chat
 

update:

without another announcement of the stimulus, gold prices tanked for a day so i unloaded that.
the general market (S&P 500) and NASDAQ had insanely strong days the past 7 sessions and with the new Apple and Tesla splits taking effect today, both of their stocks have been on a tear.

i'm seeing Tesla/Apple trend on twitter right now and i'm seeing "TikTok influencers" touting their stock market gains and giving advice on how to invest.

i feel a dot com bubble sort of atmosphere here.. nothing seems right. needless to say, i'm afraid we're due for a heavy correction and the music will stop playing. and when it does, retail investors will be the ones left standing.. and it won't be pretty. just don't know when the music will stop. until then, remember to invest in your future wisely!!

new positions today!!
COST 11/20 $360c
QQQ 11/20 $315c
QQQ 10/16 $305c
SPY 11/20 $360c
UVXY 9/4 $25c
AAPL 11/20 $140c

Re: Stock Market Chit Chat
 

i personally think this is a good thread topic but can't contribute 'cause i'm not well-versed in this type of stuff

Re: Stock Market Chit Chat
 

I've considered getting involved in stock market in the near future, just can't really get into it at the moment because, y'know, living at the bottom of the barrel at 25 years old and don't really make the kind of money to meaningfully contribute to the stock market.

Still quite interested in it though.

Covid-19 doesn't necessarily help my case either here. Kudos to the guys near my age that can afford placing savings in the stock market to make meaningful short-term returns.

Re: Stock Market Chit Chat
 

well, don't fret it too much. i honestly believe there is a bubble going on right now and when it pops, it's going to wipe out probably trillions and won't be pretty.

everyone and their moms are getting into it (you have tiktok influencers and youtubers who tweet about ~the market~) and i just see people everywhere doing stupid stuff and somehow they keep getting rewarded for it.

everybody needs an exit plan. i mean, look at this guy and the comments in the thread.
https://twitter.com/KEEMSTAR/status/1300210707879940103

Re: Stock Market Chit Chat
 

Yeah what you don't see posted as often are the big losses. See this Twitter comment as an example: https://twitter.com/TWolvesSZN/statu...10837819396096

Re: Stock Market Chit Chat
 

Out of curiosity, what are your thoughts about the possibility of policy makers manipulating the gains/losses of the stock market? There was some talk earlier this year about how that could have played a motivating role in the U.S.'s slow response to COVID-19. Excluding inflated death rates current in the U.S., are there some potential ramifications associated from this collusive effort assuming that was true?

Re: Stock Market Chit Chat
 

i have no doubt that policy makers are pushing SOME sort of agenda, it's just that the general public (including you and me) don't know exactly what it is. people always say the stock market is looking forward, and i get that - but sometimes it blows my mind that a 30% GDP contraction hasn't done much to the stock market in general.

i think the problem here is that the businesses that are going out of business are not publically traded ones, or companies even. and the big name companies that have a plethora of cash to plow through COVID with will just end up buying up / soaking up all the competition and business that previously other consumers went to.

on the topic of collusive efforts, if the republican party doesn't win.. you damn well know they'll try their damnest to crash the market so they can put the blame on the dems. and if the republicans win, they'll probably just keep the charade going for as long as possible and then blame the eventual downfall on the dems.

if the dems win, they'll do the same to keep their image up.. blah blah..

the potential ramification is that, at some point, the market will call the feds' bluff and finally we'll see the effects on the real market. you can see knee jerk reactions happening in the gold/dollar exchange every time somebody like jerome powell speaks, the spokesperson for the one policymaking entity that everybody has their eyes on right now.

Re: Stock Market Chit Chat
 

do you think that's a good time to invest then?

edit: i mean when the bubble pops

Re: Stock Market Chit Chat
 

the dot com bubble lasted for some years (although it really took off in the last few months of its duration) and it was completely different to what it is now.

back then, companies with literally 0 relation to the .com or Internet just slapped on '.com' at the end of their current names and it would just skyrocket in value for no real reason..

at least now we have things like apple and even tesla which has an actual business model.. and some stuff like nikola (without a real business model) being valued at tens of billions.

if anything, people should look to make money off of this stupidity and the retail investors flooding (this includes you, and me) but also have a valid exit plan. after joining the workforce i've met all kinds of people, including people whom you'd never expect to be "wealthy," like people who've flipped houses during 2005-2007 for millions of dollars when they knew all too well it was a bubble.

basically, the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. so why not enjoy the ride? personally speaking i'm up $18,000 today and i didn't even contribute anything to society. it's really, a joke honestly.

Re: Stock Market Chit Chat
 

Re: Stock Market Chit Chat
 

i invested a little into tesla and im seeing good return on that lol other than that i don't know shit i just knew tesla would be big one day

Re: Stock Market Chit Chat
 

I like that there is an increase in market participation. It should mean more people can become financially literate, and learn how to read financial statements.

I still question why some new-ish companies see huge share price growth without the profits to back it up. It know it's based on potential profits and possible future cash flows, but at some point it becomes a question of just how long you'd have to wait to see actual profit out of the company. Hype only lasts so long. That's why I like Warren Buffet; his strategy is actually pretty simple with time in market and investing in business models you can understand.

As far as your last point, you can consider the taxes you pay on your earnings a contribution to society. :)

Re: Stock Market Chit Chat
 

I mainly trade Canadian stocks as they're free on the platform I use.

I have a pretty conservative portfolio so far. Mostly just holding for retirement, but definitely willing to take some risk before this tech bubble pops.

Re: Stock Market Chit Chat
 

just gotta dance until the music stops. then we need to sit down.

tesla is just insane.. i refuse to touch it though.

funnily enough i think the current state of the market is bringing in people who are not willing to learn about the fundamentals or technicals behind 'trading and investing' and they will permanently take their leave once they get burned. i'm already seeing a lot of it happen after tesla drew down yesterday and today. people can't even seem to stomach 2 days of fat red candles going downwards.

and as for the huge share price growth, the market looks forwards.. sometimes too forwards. like zoom for example. i don't think the market actually cares about profit anymore. because if they did, intel should be way higher, but it's not - because people only look at the potential room for growth. the only exception to 'potential growth' would be megacaps like apple/amazon where there is still unlimited room for growth based on their business model & scale.

and yeah, that short-term gains tax is going to suck. especially as a california resident. i'm thinking of moving to someplace like washington if i get bigger and bigger.

Re: Stock Market Chit Chat
 

Sounds like someone needs to explain the concept of risk to people before they invest.

Do you think that this is because of a rise in investment social media (like Keemstar shown above), or more easy to use apps like RobinHood opening the market to more people? (Probably both)

I think that one force you won't see too much in just the stock market is still going to be interest rates. Remember, companies raise capital either through selling shares or taking on/issuing debt. Debt has been so cheap for so long there is little incentive to not take more debt. Debt magnifies returns for the shares you do sell too. The long term effect is a constant upward pressure on share prices. Investors want dividends too, but a limited number of shares pushes prices up.

As far as future growth, I think more investors need to look at what happened with the We company. Grew to be "worth" billions, but had no profits and died VERY quick. It emphasizes the need to understand both financial statements and the business model you'll be investing in. Also judge executives. I like this video on it.


Can't speak on American tax, so good luck on that. Keep some cash in reserve for it.

Re: Stock Market Chit Chat
 

How are those Nvidia stocks?

Re: Stock Market Chit Chat
 

it's 100% a new wave of retail investors, but the thing is - they don't have as big of a driving force in the market versus say, market makers and the big boys (banks, funds, etc)

it does show a frenzy however, on stocks like tesla for example. and a bunch of pump and dump penny stocks. kodak is another good example.. i watched it blow up overnight from $2.50 to $8 and said to myself, there's no way this can go higher after just 1 announcement of a COVID related government loan.

then the next day, trump mentioned kodak as a COVID vaccine chemicals producer (or the potential to be) and it jumped to $54. now it's back down under $8.. and the amount of people still holding kodak shares from >$20.. extremely sad. people seem to not do their due diligence these days and those who do seem to make it big.

for example, peloton/dick's sporting goods/lumber skyrocketed (for obvious reasons) but most people didn't think about any of that because well, who wants to buy boring stocks like dick's sporting goods? we want to buy tesla for fast, quick money instead!

i heard there's a way to defer the tax then have it written off if you make enough for this year (something like, if you made 110% of your previous yearly salary via short term gains tax, you can have it written off completely for this year..) - i need to look into that.

i'm up $19k today for reference.

Re: Stock Market Chit Chat
 

the $499 price point for RTX 3070 is fucking insane. NVDA is up from $508 earlier this week, and jumped last night after jensen huang's announcement.

it's phenomenal, and i believe NVDA has further room to grow. i personally grabbed one 1/15/21 $660 call for it today.

Re: Stock Market Chit Chat
 

Don't quote me, I've never invested, never have the money to do so. There's a shit-ton of media coverage right now on Nvidia, and it's at a time where young adults are looking into making computers themselves, because pre-builts are 'expensive', and the knowledge to build one yourself is there. Multiply that with Covid keeping everyone indoors for extended periods, compiled against release of next-gen video game console hardware specifications, and yeah, can probably see an Nvidia bubble similar to Tesla happening in the near future when they get released.

Re: Stock Market Chit Chat
 

not to mention i think nvidia's datacenter business has outgrown its GPU business. and if we see another crypto mining boom or A.I. related boom, we're in for a major rocketship up on nvidia.

Re: Stock Market Chit Chat
 

do you think you're beating the market?

Re: Stock Market Chit Chat
 

only time will tell

Re: Stock Market Chit Chat
 

but what do you think right now?

Re: Stock Market Chit Chat
 

I hope this doesn't mean the 2000 series will get more expensive. I was specifically waiting for the 3000 series announcement to hopefully see a decrease in the 2080's.

...But I'm assuming it will since Nvidia themselves pretty much just stated "yeah, our new shit is only $600 or less if you get the 3070"

Maybe I should invest in a 3000 series instead. We'll see what the price drop will be for the 2080's as a response to this.

Re: Stock Market Chit Chat
 

I'd like to think so, yeah. But only short term, which is significantly risky to most investors. Chit chat on the topic is generally trading information/insight on stocks and how they might perform in the first place, which essentially is better than any single person doing their own research. /shrug

Also, what qualifies as 'beating the market' nowadays? If the definition there means being more accurate than numerous stocks for retirement and for stuff like Dow Jones & Nasdaq, then yes. My 2 cents on it, is that the market as a whole, has gotten a lot more volatile in the past 10-ish years, as young adults get involved in the business of investing. The instances of bubbles in a particular stock forming has increased massively. And because of that, there is a bigger, and broader range of things that people generally know about, and have more experience in investing compared to back in the 2000's.

Re: Stock Market Chit Chat
 

don't know because we don't know whether we'll have hyperinflation or deflation

even if people "beat the market" but they fail to beat the inflation, they're not really beating it, right?

Re: Stock Market Chit Chat
 

also today we saw a major correction to the tech "bubble" that we've been seeing

god knows how much money these guys lost by going in on short-dated positions or not realizing everything (especially tesla) was due for a correction soon.

Re: Stock Market Chit Chat
 

i got tesla and apple! :D
OOOO GRATS!! now wathc your money GROOWWWW!

top 2 infamous quotes muttered moments before disaster

Re: Stock Market Chit Chat
 

How much are you down today?

Re: Stock Market Chit Chat
 

down $9k today! still up for the week by the hefty amount. i was saved by my UVXY calls since i knew fear levels would rise and boy, today was that day. my tech positions are dated through january and november however so i'm not tripping hard. people who bought into tesla or short-dated options got absolutely fucked though

Re: Stock Market Chit Chat
 

today will be very exciting! heading into a 3-day weekend with the markets closed on labor day.

will trump let the market die under his name and the election on the line?

Re: Stock Market Chit Chat
 

Yeah I'm down across the board, but not panicking like everyone else seems to be. Might just average down a bit.
Down $780 today

Re: Stock Market Chit Chat
 

WHOO that's an exciting day. we nearly touched the 200 day moving average for QQQ so now i feel it's a pretty safe time to go long through january. sold off all my hedge UVXY calls and jumped back into AAPL $120c for 1/15/21. despite all of apple's production issues and iphone release delay, i feel that AAPL took the brunt of the market correction so will be rebounding just as hard when the time comes.

Re: Stock Market Chit Chat
 

i think if we open green on labor day, we're officially done with the downturn correction. the fundamentals are still the same, it's just that everybody was WAYYY too frothy and the entire market was melting UPWARDS the past week.

hopefully this event shook out all the people with no conviction (doing 0 due diligence and just buying tesla blindly for example) and hopefully the market returns to slower, steadier gains (and also slower and steadier LOSSES).

Re: Stock Market Chit Chat
 

hahahahaha November is going to be a shitshow.

Re: Stock Market Chit Chat
 

Probably smart I bet a decent amount of people just lost some money to it thankfully I randomly sold mine conveniently the day before it's new high and also right before it went down a lot lol.

Re: Stock Market Chit Chat
 

and there was just news that Tesla won't be included in the S&P 500, which was what drove a lot of the buying action, things are not looking for Tesla lol

Re: Stock Market Chit Chat
 

Re: Stock Market Chit Chat
 

yep i just read that, funny stuff but also pretty concerning

Re: Stock Market Chit Chat
 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/04/jobs...ust-2020-.html

hopefully this signals a more stable return to normality..

Re: Stock Market Chit Chat
 

I've been pretty consistently just dca bi-weekly into the usual suspects. I almost held off the latest period (right before the recent dip), but decided not to pretend I could time the market. Ah well ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Re: Stock Market Chit Chat
 

this week will probably be red but not by much, i can see tech still pulling back for another 2 weeks like it did in early june.. if i see banks and oil pull back along with tech though while the dollar ALSO falls, we have a different story altogether

Re: Stock Market Chit Chat
 

pogchamp

are you guys ready for a 5 year long depression

Re: Stock Market Chit Chat
 

I thought we were already in the 5 year long depression back in March.

Re: Stock Market Chit Chat
 

Same

Re: Stock Market Chit Chat
 

WHERE'S BILL












oh i meant the stimulus bill.

Re: Stock Market Chit Chat
 

Here's my portfolio. Wish I sold my Vanilla stock when it was 100$ a pop but I missed the window, hoping for a rebound that never occurred. My nut stock has been hovering around 60 since forever, just waiting for a little spike before selling. Butter stocks have been rock bottom since forever.





Oh wait we're not talking about Cookie Clicker...

Re: Stock Market Chit Chat
 

TIL Cookie Clicker has a stock market. I stopped playing that after like 10-ish minutes.

Re: Stock Market Chit Chat
 

market is yikers as shit right now, but i might get back in with longs today

Re: Stock Market Chit Chat
 

@mi40 do you have any recommendations for resources for learning about options? I know the absolute basics but I'm not fucking with them until I really know what I'm doing. I have no problem studying for months if needed

Re: Stock Market Chit Chat
 

investopedia has great articles, and while you're at it, you should read about futures as well. and all the financial instruments & derivatives available to people.

everything is interconnected so reading and learning is important yeah. you REALLY start learning with a small amount of money at play as well since you start reading the news and other macroeconomic signs as well

https://www.investopedia.com/options...torial-4583012
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f...l%20instrument.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/v...nt%20decisions.

and so on. good luck my man

Re: Stock Market Chit Chat
 

basically options are derivatives. you're leveraging and playing the financial instrument that was originally created for insurance/hedging purposes (calls/puts), learn about the greeks, what they meant, how they're generated
and how volatility works (put/call ratio, VIX index, VIX futures, etc) & how they affect options pricing

learn about market events like earnings, ex-dividend dates, sector rotations, the different indexes, which stocks comprise which index.. just really start reading into everything and it starts to click together.

anyways, i went long on sept 15 and got stopped out by another 2 weeks of red but the market's been on another rebound and i've been riding crude oil & financials back up (GS/JPM and /CL)

donald's tweet a few days ago really shook the markets but it looks like the market is pricing in a delayed stimulus already and isnt reacting as hard anymore.

Re: Stock Market Chit Chat
 

Thanks man, I appreciate it. I picked up a few books as well.
I'll let you know how much I lose when I begin haha

Re: Stock Market Chit Chat
 

:l
really do the studying and as long as you have strict discipline & keep up with world events and macroeconomic trends you should be able to make money over time

8% a year as an average investor is cool but honestly, might as well try while we're young - to try and make it big

Re: Stock Market Chit Chat
 

just started buying stocks directly with a bit of fun money for high risk investments. Only made a bit off unity stocks when they came out, but the hype seems to have died down quickly

Re: Stock Market Chit Chat
 

unity was talked about a lot 2 weeks ago yep, lots of eyes on NIO (big call volume there this week) after JPM raised price targets to $40+ on NIO

HTZ lots of action today (i would never touch this trash) because of new $1.5 billion secured in financing, monthly OPEX day today and lots of OTM calls being pinned down for major tech companies like AMZN, AAPL, FB.. 100% today was gonna be a red day.




my current plays are
AAL 1/18/22 $10c (down 20% on these ._.)
GS 200 shares (avg 206.72, waiting for 210 target next week to sell)
DIS 6/18/21 $130c (got in before disney announcement to shift focus to streaming/online platform more - restructuring basically)
AAPL 1/15/21 $115c (got these a while ago in sept, holding til 0.8 delta or 130)
SPY 12/18 $340p (got these on monday, small hedge)
VXX 1/15/21 $25c (hedge against volatility pop on elections)

Re: Stock Market Chit Chat
 

Remember when I said November was going to be a shitstorm

Yeah how's that looking

Re: Stock Market Chit Chat
 

september was a shitstorm
november we don't know yet
but we know for sure politicians are too far up their own asses to pass a stimulus bill

rest in peace average american

Re: Stock Market Chit Chat
 

let's fucking GO germany!
monday is gonna be lovely green for america.

Re: Stock Market Chit Chat
 

Anybody else ever get pissed off looking at ZM (Zoom) knowing you couldv'e bought it at multiple points but didn't trust it would continue going up and it just keeps going up?

I've been watching it since the whole thing started. 80 a share, thought it was too risky, 120, 200, 300, too risky. Never bought. Now at 500, still feel like it isn't worth the risk. Fuck

Re: Stock Market Chit Chat
 

yeah zoom is such a stupid stock, i refuse to touch it at this point.

Re: Stock Market Chit Chat
 

i mean for crying out loud, it went from $300 to $450 overnight (a 50% jump, FIFTY PERCENT) like a penny stock would after the earnings report that it quadrupled revenue projections (like, 2 cents a share, to 6 cents a share.. big woop..)

hate that stock so much, can't wait until it fades into obscurity

Re: Stock Market Chit Chat
 

dang SNAP

Re: Stock Market Chit Chat
 

5x SNAP $20c 1/15/21
sold for $1720 per contract today, up from $470 per contract!

Re: Stock Market Chit Chat
 

good fucking job. hope you got an extra large bowl of poke (or chipotle) lmao

Re: Stock Market Chit Chat
 

big moves today in the market, not so hot for tech

airlines (AAL, ALK, DAL, LUV) (american airlines, alaska airlines, delta airlines, southwest) all up huge
retail & sales (M, KSS, JWN) (macy's, kohl's, nordstrom) also up 7-9% across the board
oil recovery (XOM, CVX)
entertainment & hospitality (RCL, CCL, DIS, MGM, HLT) all up huge as well today

looks like we're pricing in a vaccine now, stimulus or not. GILD (gilead sciences) had remdesivir approved by the FDA as coronavirus treatment today.

will airlines recover? we just crossed 1 million passengers throughput for the first time since march just this week.

https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput

Re: Stock Market Chit Chat
 

retail & sales up again today
oil down
everything saw recovery starting midday.. all the tech giants have been lagging this week but starting midday today we saw a vertical recovery on guys like FB, AMZN, GOOG (not AAPL though since that one's manipulated to all hell by market makers)

election's week coming up.. happy with me +$7k today!

Re: Stock Market Chit Chat
 

Can I give you all my credit to invest, you can keep 25% :monkey:

Re: Stock Market Chit Chat
 

no because playing with somebody else's money always leads to worse decision making, hedge fund managers typically don't beat the overall market anyways!

Re: Stock Market Chit Chat
 

Makes me want to figure out options trading. Always felt it was too risky to ever research how to make it work

Re: Stock Market Chit Chat
 

extremely risky yes, it's meant to be an insurance & hedging tool but you know how human nature is.. so people turned it into a hyper leveraged gambling thing.

well, with the right research it can be used to amplify gains.

Re: Stock Market Chit Chat
 

who ready for black monday!!

Re: Stock Market Chit Chat
 

No stocks for me. Just a 401(k) through my employer.

Re: Stock Market Chit Chat
 

i can respect it.

Re: Stock Market Chit Chat
 

dump it