Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
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Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
Something I noted in the Plop post....
He somehow knows how to solve the unsolvable Haku... and has Sunfan as town and both of them have Freezin' as their top wolf... |
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The more likely scenario is that Plop is wolf and both T-Force/FG are town, which makes that wagon pretty pure. |
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(Context: Sunfan pushing for a Subaru lynch) |
Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
Like. Haku's last major read is that Plop is a wolf.
Is there more that I'm missing or isn't this like, really easy today? |
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Every conclusion that I come to sounds so incredibly simple it's almost stupid to even believe |
Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
I still have a lot of work to do--- gonna look directly at Plop's contributions now, but I feel pretty good about lynching Plop today. Current headspace: Plop/Freezin/YoshL in that order
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Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
I should be making mental notes of who I should be blocking based off your stuff here.
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There's no real incentive for wolf Sunfan to challenge wolf Plopadop this early for a weak push |
Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
Moreover, Plop defending himself to Sunfan like this here also is not W/W
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Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
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The reason this is important is because, if I were in Plop's shoes here as a town, I would see the mechanics post and think, "she's focusing on mechanics. That's a wolf tell." because that's the most immediate response I'd have. The telling part is that Plop REACHES this read but then flips it over, saying "ah! She's towny because her post is so obviously wolfy that it can't be wolfy!!" This is a literal example of WIFOM... and yet, Plop magically seems to arrive at the unintuitive "correct" answer of "Ulli is town!" It's a very safe, easy move for Plop to make here, because it's a freebie read, because all he has to do is mentally invoke WIFOM and use the "contrarian" response. This is a very easy contrarian read for Plop to make, and it serves a dual purpose of making Plop seem like he's critically thinking about player alignment, but also saving his ass in case Ulli ends up lynched later. |
Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
YoshL responds to Plop's weird Ulli read.
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Another example on the following page: Quote:
YoshL makes it a point to disagree with Plop's interpretation, but the conversation with Plop never results in any development of a read in either direction. Because Plop is a wolf with YoshL. Plop's response to YoshL's response is also EXTREMELY awkward and after that the conversation between them IMMEDIATELY stops. Plop's like, "OK, yeah, sure, I'll think about it." And that's it. This isn't how players talk to each other. Especially not YoshL. He'd be weirded out by Plop's post, just like I am. |
Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
To be more concise, maybe.
Wolf partners have a very hard time interacting with each other in thread. The reason is because, in the context of pushing an agenda, they have no reason to. Towns interact with towns and wolves because they want to solve the game. Wolves interact with towns because they need to trick town and push them to make mislynches. Why do wolves need to interact with wolves? Because people will notice if they don't. So wolf-wolf communication in-thread is purely a MAINTENANCE task: it's just something you sometimes have to do. And, unlike the other cases, these conversations are necessarily fake, performative. That's why it can really look stilted when two wolves talk to each other in thread. They're only doing it because they "have to." Plus, it's super hard! It can be harder to talk to your fellow wolves than it would be to talk to towns. As a rule of thumb, you rarely observe meaningful, compelling wolf dialogue, and many times you'll notice that some wolf pairs just flat-out do not talk to each other unless they have to. YoshL at least took the initiative to respond to Plop's observation because he knows this. He knows that he has to talk to his partners or else he looks bad. The problem is, as I pointed out, it is clear that YoshL/Plop's interaction exists only for its own sake. Nothing changes as a result of this conversation. In fact, if you pay attention, YoshL's post actually talks past Plopadop. And Plopadop, in response, terminates the conversation, and they both move on like nothing happened. |
Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
I'm not nearly done to finishing but I 100% expect to see more of the same pattern here: Plop and/or YoshL staging useless conversations and then quickly dropping them to actually get shit done.
If I'm lucky, the third compadre is actually just Freezinice. |
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I've got all I need!! Plopadop. See you in court!! |
Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
DBP quick question for you:
Are you considering the posts and interactions from an emotional standpoint as well? Like, for me, I get 0 emotion from YoshL when I read through his stuff compared to maybe... We'll use Trevor as an example Trevor (If we're town reading him) has a very dry and sarcastic tone which, if you happen to know the dude, you can pick up on |
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I mentioned this earlier but whenever I read Trevor based on tone I think he's wolfing, so I'm trying to... not do that this time. If I see interesting, authentic emotion I'll point it out, since I do still think it can be useful to analyze outbursts and such |
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Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
Something I've been thinking of as I use this thread to just get thoughts off my mind:
IF we manage to hit two wolves and I somehow manage to block at LEAST one wolf kill, we're out of mylo This means nothing right now, but a neat thing to be hopeful for |
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* Engages in a fake conversation with YoshL, it ends immediately * Asks FFA about his read on YoshL * Makes a comment that "everyone should always live in fear of YoshL" * Makes a big post with his thoughts about the game. * Never mentions YoshL in it. * Straddles the line between FFA and Ulli, both of who end up as wagons. Quote:
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According to the Wolf Matrix, sunfan and YoshL both have each other as 2nd-place wolves. With all of this in mind, as well as my past posts tonight, I'm willing to completely reject a sunfan/YoshL wolf pairing. |
Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
Can I also point out, DBP
The bolded text that you have for Ulle, is so contradictory 1. Plop says he's not sure, but says she's town on gut, but ALSO says that this is how he (Plop) usually plays as a wolf. So he's gone up and down the town/wolf scale in one sentence here and uses self-meta to G U T READ town It actually took my reading that section 4 times before I clicked those in together Am I over analyzing that? Maybe. |
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Hindsight says contradictory was the incorrect word to use
I have no idea how to describe what I'm getting at here: Best guess would be "It's everywhere" but just settles for town |
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Regarding the Plop quote in here: Quote:
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This is another "devil's advocate"/contrarian take, one which he rides to the very end of the phase. In fact, if we look at the final votecounts: Quote:
And yet--- knowing full well that Subaru was going to be lynched, he would easy peasy be able to enter this phase (MYLO) with a perfect mislynch alibi. "I've been sus of T-Force, I even voted for him yesterday! Can we please just kill him?" It's likely that YoshL did this too, in order to give himself a free ride through MYLO. Of course, it would be pretty weird if T-Force was the unanimous suspect today, so there is a bit of variation in the Wolf Matrix--- YoshL has T-Force as a 3, Plop only has T-Force as a 1. But despite this, because of voting patterns and breadcrumbing, both Plop and YoshL have absolutely plausible alibis as to why they'd be OK with a T-Force lynch. |
Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
Another stray observation, from looking at the votecounts: Plopadop is the first vote on both of his wagons, which on the surface would indicate leadership and confidence, but in practice really reveals a lack of panic or concern during CFDs. He also has a proclivity for hard defending the competing wagon targets, in a way that doesn't really feel justified. (A mismatch between "low effort", "low panic", and "high read confidence")
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Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
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Now FREEZIN is most sus, and T-Force is LEAST sus. This is seemingly incongruent, so I'm gonna try to see if/where he justifies this switch. (Or, he can justify it after reading this :) ) My gut is telling me that, since Plop has been playing a completely contrarian game, his job on the wolf team is to make it seem like T-Force isn't the de facto sacrificial lamb. I imagine his job is to push back a little bit against voting T-Force, and instead being contrarian and pushing Freezin first. Knowing, of course, that the rest of us wanted T-Force mega-dead, so he would "compromise" on T-Force, since he still has those T-Force lynch breadcrumbs. Plop's mistake, however, was not realizing that this morning (IRL), sunfan would pop in and ALSO list Freezin as his highest scum. Freezin actually has a pretty good chance of dying this phase--- at least, before I popped in with this massive fucking expose on Plop himself, hopefully. It would be pretty funny to watch Plop actually retract his hard Freezin scumlean and move it to T-Force, to make the T-Force mislynch a more certain thing, but I digress. |
Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
This EOD is going to be sheer. Fucking. Chaos.
I will ready the lube |
Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
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He quotes plop several times here but NOT ONCE takes a moment to comment on his alignment. Remarkable, still, because early in the post he "hard disagrees" with Plop's take on Haku, yet later on in the post he quotes a plop post that is "literally how [YoshL] feels". And STILL, there's no real attempt at solving Plop... and afterwards, any Plop-related lines of reasoning go "poof." If this sounds familiar it should, because it's the same exactly fucking pattern I described involving YoshL+Plop's conversation about Ulli. Plop made a bad take about Ulli, YoshL entered to say "actually I strongly disagree!" and then... nothing happens. At best, YoshL has said that he's "fine" with Plop based on a general problem-solving mindset, which is pretty special, because nobody else in this game has gotten such a free ride from YoshL based solely on problem-solving ethic. Plop definitely isn't the only person with displaying that ethic this game, but for some reason you've been holding those other players to different standards of conduct so you can conveniently ignore plop altogether. ---------- His overview of Freezin, by comparison, isn't as obviously disingenuous, but you can still observe a different standard of "solving" when he describes literally anybody else in this post. |
Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
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Maybe his progression is actually natural, that's for us to figure out. I will say on average that if Freezin is wolfing with Plop and YoshL then they're doing a pretty good job of hiding that fact. It's harder to find any specific connection or interaction to nail him to the cross. With that said, I really, really don't think sunfan can be a third wolf... T-Force most likely can't be with Plopadop... and Raeko is a really hard sell, maybe it's possible she's a wolf, but that's a question for like literally F3 or whatever. |
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Why? Oh, no reason." |
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Freezin makes a massive fucking wagonomics post, then T-Force comes in to say, "hey! I like this post, but I actually think my version is more accurate!" and does the same fucking thing. It... really, REALLY feels like a poor use of time for T-Force and the wolf team to nearly fucking duplicate Freezin's work if they're working together. That would signal a complete failure of wolf communication that is kind of hard to imagine, ESPECIALLY if you know that T-Force is a major scumlean for the majority of the thread... You'd imagine that T-Force and Freezin would, in wolf chat, collaboratively write-up a single wagonomics perspective that suits BOTH of their agendas. That way you can give T-Force time and energy to actually, you know, defend himself for the remainder of the phase. This might sound like a really nitpicky thing, and maybe it is, but if I'm potentially worried about one of my wolf partners getting lynched today, the LAST thing I'm going to let him do is waste time with a duplicate post like that. The most important thing is to let him focus on not fucking dying instead. |
Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
pretty much caught up
i thought about making a post refuting/explaining all the nitpicks people had with me but decided that would most be for my own ego so nah |
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Freezin, would you be comfortable lynching Plop instead of sunfan today? |
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Yeah, the dynamic between Freezin and Plop feels quite different than the dynamic between YoshL and Plop. I don't exactly know what this means practically, but it's weighing on my mind a little bit. I'm still, like, 50% sure Freezin is the third wolf, but I would feel better with some more "gotcha!"s, I guess. sunfan, if you're town, your job is to prove that Freezin is a wolf on his own terms if I'm not able to link him to the others. I really would not advocate a Freezin lynch today, but he really DOES need to be solved if we want to completely win this game. |
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You'd have no problem lynching Plop today, right, Freezin? |
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id rather kill sunfan and yoshi before plop if at all possible
the only place where i think i could be wrong is tforce/plop. Im pretty sure plop is the wolf in that pairing but im obviously not 100% certain. Since they are never wolfing together in my mind and im ride or die on that read, it makes sense to kill my 100% scumreads before visiting that choice. I guess im all in on raeko town too but im ok with that. if we're lucky we can get a save on someone dying in the night from dbp/shadow and get out of mylo, which gives myself room to be wrong when im choosing between tforce and plop near the end |
Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
oh i didnt read your latest posts
one sec let me see if i need to add anything |
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To me, what you're saying is you'd rather just lie down and die That's basically throwing the game |
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Unless I'm reading what you're saying incorrectly
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funny that the thing you want me to address was what i made a post about
id be ok with it but i would prefer sunfan/yoshi first |
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"maybe im getting too heated here" I think I mentioned this before but this reads like a breadcrumb to copout of a Plop lynch in case it actually gains momentum. |
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i was just trying to create pressure on plop for reactions and was out for his blood for what felt at the time like the wrong reason |
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i dont feel like its worth getting bogged down explaining every little thing that someone finds in their progressions thru my posts even if it makes me look bad. Unless its a direct point they feel is important enough that they ask me in real time or its something so egregious it bears immediate correction. ive tried fighting that battle and not only is it tiring as fuck but its largely pointless |
Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
like i corrected plop on his incorrect read on me yesterday in his big post.
i felt like that was actually a big thing worth bringing up and it still didnt make any difference cause he just doubled down. plenty of other examples going back, not just that one. Iono if everyone plays like that but i feel like its a natural progression of me as a TWG player and a lesson that was not that easy to learn |
Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
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Three strikes and you're out, buddy. You've invested all this time, all this effort into responding to Plopadop's megapost-- specifically, where he calls you out-- and even though you seem to disagree with almost everything he says, there's no semblance of an actual read on Plopadop himself here. Why does this keep happening? The rest of your megapost has --actual reads-- in it, but for some fucking reason the literal first half of the post has nothing in the way of actual reads towards the person you're supposedly directly responding to. It's because it's a fucking performance. Plop needed to create SOME tension between the two of you, and, naturally, you needed to respond to it. But here's the thing, and it's a thing I think wolves fall for a lot when theatering in thread... If you create "conflict" between yourself and a wolf partner, you will have a natural tendency to resolve that "conflict" in a neat, tidy way, with a sparkly bow on top. Ah, Plop had a scum read on me? My response will completely sate him, or at least get him to stop talking about me. That sense of lingering doubt and tension will dissipate, and then we can both move on to other topics. But this isn't how townies usually operate. There is almost never any complete conflict resolution between townies and wolves in TWG. If I have a scumread on you, and you respond to it, even if it's pretty convincing, I'm not gonna just "drop" it. I'll still feel that insecurity, that "what if". I'll probably bring your name up later, or I might even continue the conversation then and there. You're not gonna feel comfortable as town, so when I see that your interactions with Plop seem to try to emulate that feeling of "initial conflict->resolution", I'm gonna really ask myself if you're totally satisfied with that resolution. Townies rarely are, or at the very least, it takes time to change your perspective on another person. If you respond to a post, don't add anything of your own to the conflict, I dunno, maybe to actually probe about Plop's alignment? It's gonna look like theatrical denouement. And that theatrical denouement is exactly what I keep seeing with you and Plop's interactions. |
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If you want something concrete to latch on to, you can focus on selling me on sunfan being a wolf, and also more detail on why he takes precedence over Plop this phase. |
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Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
im definitely not the type of person who puts stock on interactions and posturing before the vote unless im specifically baiting for it because (probably erroneously) it defaults in my mind to "Oh thats just theatre or they have their own plan"
its usually during wagon analysis that i pick that stuff up |
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Especially if it's the same weird interaction three fucking times across 72 hours |
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they are both wolves so i dont really care which order they die in, just i feel like i have a bigger chance being wrong on plop than sunfan |
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Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
I need to sleep. It's 6am.
I do feel pretty strongly about Plop being a hit, with YoshL coming in 2nd place. The third wolf is exactly within Freezin/Sunfan. The good news (for me) is that I'll almost certainly be nightkilled before I have to make that decision, haha... If time permits, I'd still rather make headway in that direction though. Especially if it will help Raeko and T-Force moving forward. |
Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
By the way. If I'm totally right about Plop and YoshL. I deserve a fucking trophy. Hall of Fame me, motherfuckers
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Garfield is dead. And we fucking killed him
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not my finest moment of thread reading comprehension thats why i was giving sunfan shit about the last min subaru vote today when i first came to the thread, because in my mind it was a last minute vote at eod In reality it was just me completely blanking out |
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understanding*
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tbh looking back that was a pretty cringe eod for me
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Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
Good news: I'm off for 3 days
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Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
I'm not too focused on who I'm lynching today
My brain is more focused on how I'm going to pull a save out of my ass and keep DBP alive. If I can pull that off, we should be in a better position to squeak this out |
Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
I know, I know
Worry about that when it happens But I'm sure we've got at least one hit here today |
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