Re: TWG Turbo 30 - The Nonary Werewolf Games [Game Thread]
 

I think he's a false positive, but that could be it.

I just feel like wolf Plop would want to distance from FFA and hide in the forest of FFA voters.

I think Plop just legitimately want to figure things out.

Re: TWG Turbo 30 - The Nonary Werewolf Games [Game Thread]
 

can we stop entertaining "if ffa flips wolf" discussions
I'm town, and I really don't like our chances of winning if we lynch me first

whichever way you try to argue, I have several points nearly proving I can't be fake
CK, if you're confident that town wins a F3 with raeko/sunfan/plop, be my guest
but that seems like a really hard F3 to me
the F5 with 3 confirmed towns is a lot more luxurious

Re: TWG Turbo 30 - The Nonary Werewolf Games [Game Thread]
 

i can't be sure of anything until i see flips




someone who's not ffa tell me what the best mechanical move is here lol

Re: TWG Turbo 30 - The Nonary Werewolf Games [Game Thread]
 

If ffa does turn out to be a wolf then that means either sunfan or raeko bussed him last EOD, putting or otherwise keeping him in a KITB scenario. Or it means haku really did get coverup'd. But none of that seems likely.

Re: TWG Turbo 30 - The Nonary Werewolf Games [Game Thread]
 

If ffa fakeclaimed, why do you think he decided to out himself right then and there?

Re: TWG Turbo 30 - The Nonary Werewolf Games [Game Thread]
 

FFA is a wolf (lol), TWGma is town:

Lynch twgma first, ck dies in the night, ffa is lynched, haku dies in the night > F3 raeko/sunfan/plop where ugh as soon as I hit this point my brain stops working because how can any of them be a wolf when I flip wolf? It's not possible. But like, I guess plop is the best lynch there and is probably the best odds at being my partner from your guys' pov?

Lynch FFA first, TWGma either succeeds in a block or dies and clears a townie, lynch plop anyway

The order doesn't matter in worlds where I'm a wolf, you see? Can you agree with this statement, or do you have other ideas

Re: TWG Turbo 30 - The Nonary Werewolf Games [Game Thread]
 

i'd have to go back and read (can't right this second, but i can in a lil while if you'd like me to) to try and find out. i hadn't really thought about why he chose when he did.

Re: TWG Turbo 30 - The Nonary Werewolf Games [Game Thread]
 

TWGma is a wolf (duh), FFA is town:

Lynch twgma first, FFA either succeeds in a block or dies and clears sunfan, lynch the fallout (mechanical victory)

Lynch FFA first, CK dies in the night, TWGma is lynched, haku dies in the night > F3 raeko/sunfan/plop where plop is probably town, you guys probably end up lynching sunfan?

The order here matters a ton, as it changes who you guys actually lynch meaningfully

so tldr it's higher EV to lynch TWGma first, even if he ends up being town, but he's not, because I wouldn't have claimed to block him in any scenario where I am a wolf

Re: TWG Turbo 30 - The Nonary Werewolf Games [Game Thread]
 

I'd suggest it just so you can get an unbiased look at how it all went down. It seemed really out of the blue.

Also, while ffa is the type who can plan out a fakeclaim well in advance, he admittedly softed while twgma, who suspected he might be lynched, only offered a brief reads list.

Re: TWG Turbo 30 - The Nonary Werewolf Games [Game Thread]
 

nothing about the timing was super specific
I just realized that the time I claim today doesn't matter if I'm the lead wagon anyway, so I'd better give town time to reread with that knowledge
I'll be honest, I wasn't expecting a fake claim because it isn't lylo, but now I'm realizing it's not as much of a throw as it looked, since that F3 is really hard to win.
A factor in my claim timing was you coming to the terms that I looked town by threadspew, but couldn't get over my soft yesterday.

Re: TWG Turbo 30 - The Nonary Werewolf Games [Game Thread]
 

boo, this is bad
you've never played a game with me

Re: TWG Turbo 30 - The Nonary Werewolf Games [Game Thread]
 

so this is where i think i'm getting confused. i legitimately don't understand why lynching twgma first is the best plan.

if we lynch twgma first (and you're lying), it goes as you said.

if we lynch you first (and you're lying), twgma either saves me or haku, or tries to roleblock a wolf. does a jailkeeper die if their target is "killed" by a wolf? (i legitimately do not remember, sorry)

if he doesn't die in that case: either haku/i die or neither of us do (depends on who the wolf targets) and if neither of us died, we have a chance of having extra people around

if we lynch twgma first (and you're not lying), haku or i will still probably die in the night

if we lynch you first (and you're not lying) then haku or I die in the night anyway and we're back to where we started.

Re: TWG Turbo 30 - The Nonary Werewolf Games [Game Thread]
 

This was at 11:58, technically before but really at the same time the CFD onto bolth happened:

So while it was ffa[3] and twgma[3] at that time, the speed of the thread means we can say twgma thought it was different. But either way, he knew he was up there, and at two mins to EOD, why would the non-1 shot PR not claim to save themselves?

But then again, why wouldn't ffa either?

Re: TWG Turbo 30 - The Nonary Werewolf Games [Game Thread]
 

twgma always needs to go for the roleblock, he can't target himself so the wolf is always going to kill him
the wolf will not even begin to entertain killing you or haku first in worlds where I'm a wolf, because he's confirmed town already and is the only PR able to win the game at that point

Re: TWG Turbo 30 - The Nonary Werewolf Games [Game Thread]
 

I would have claimed at 4
I didn't think I was in any real danger of dying if I wasn't at 4
I was only in the kitb because I couldn't vote fast enough

Re: TWG Turbo 30 - The Nonary Werewolf Games [Game Thread]
 

Compare this to my prior game where I did the exact same thing.. this isn't out of the realm of normalcy for me to do as a blue.

Re: TWG Turbo 30 - The Nonary Werewolf Games [Game Thread]
 

maybe you can explain to me
how do you think I arrived at a fake claim of "roleblocker, targeted twgma"?
I'm interested in seeing what kind of bull you can concoct actually

Re: TWG Turbo 30 - The Nonary Werewolf Games [Game Thread]
 

As boomer? Didn't the opposite happen? You thought you were gonna be insta'd so you claimed early into the phase. Here you thought you might be lynched but you didn't claim anything.

Re: TWG Turbo 30 - The Nonary Werewolf Games [Game Thread]
 

taking a break from assembling a desk for danceguy to pick up our food (gonna be a bit)
will catch up

Re: TWG Turbo 30 - The Nonary Werewolf Games [Game Thread]
 

I eagerly await sunfan's analysis