Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 

Look, storn is dead, you should be happy and thank the SK.

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 

please fontisian

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 

sigh

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 

I'm up for it too.

fontisian

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 

6 people left, careful insta is a 4

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 

Even if he was a mafia hit, I don't think we were in a one mafia world.

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 

i hate myself

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 

which scares me but we will have to deal with that eventually

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 

What's up jrodd?

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 

I'm down with a font insta, but I'd at least like Xiz to weigh in first

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 

if there is still a mafia left we enter final 4 I think

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 

so if you think mafia hit fonti last night, but haku's medic save on fonti earlier was a reason, then how would that work out

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 

was a reason there was no kill*

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 

mafia targeted font (SK) -> saved by Haku
mafia targeted font last night -> bulletproof went off

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 

first one should be vendetta*

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 

My theory is that Mafia is dead and that there's only fonti left.

It's not a bulletproof theory, but I like dreaming.

#that pun

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 

oh im really tired from studying, my brain is fried lol my bad

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 

we can pray

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 

I'm honestly surprised the sk killed.
I would've no killed and gone utr

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 

Prepare for massive bullshit if it's not over.

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 

i know this is a completely worthless thing to say

but if a mafia member is still alive and can tell us if they targeted font, that would be really great right now

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 

if it continues and haku isn't the godfather, then we might have to have a DBP/xiz thunderdome :O

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 

jrodd, on what grounds are you lock clear btw?

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 

yeah I thought about Haku some more, I don't think he would try to defend botchi in the scenario when he claimed if he was a wolf

if there's a wolf it's between jrodd and xiz, but I think the mafia were wiped out

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 

because like duh!

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 

How are you certain that I'm 100% Town?

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 

im now thinking storn wasnt a wolf so it would be AA which would cause the mafia team to be eliminated

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 

..because I'm pretty sure you said that 2-3 times by now.

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 

im not, but it's a leap of faith ive taken to POE this game ive joined 2 weeks too late

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 

100% certainty is silly to say. if youre a godfather then gg youve put up a hell of a performance, ill reread your earlier stuff if we're both alive at a next phase and put that in the context of lynches and who i think are def misses and maybe hits

otherwise i think it's highly unlikely from a statistical perspective and based on your volume and actions

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 

can you explain your references to godfather? what does that have to do with anything?

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 

xiz asked the question earlier about godfather

Vote Count
 

Votes from post 3593 to post 3632
Night in 47:39:27
---

• Votes -- Lynch -- Voters
• 3 -- fontisian -- DaBackpack (15), Hakulyte (9), j-rodd123 (11)
• 3 -- not voting -- fontisian (0), Red Blaster (4), Xiz (0)

*** MAJORITY LYNCH IN POST 3620 ***

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 

majority has not been met, ignore that

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 

lol vote counter cant count

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 

so i think it's about bed time, it's quite late

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 

how do you feel about this lynch RB?

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 

are these questions validating you in any way dbp

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 

he was opposed to it yesterday, so I'm trying to find if that changed or not

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 

What if AA and storn were both wolves?

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 

well i mean he did just say this

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 

whoops

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 

upon reanalyzing yesterday and rereading a bit deeper, the probability AA was a wolf > the probability of storn being a wolf. and they were like ~never wolf/wolf so i hate to burst your tinfoily bubble but that's not the case

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 

Meh I don't know.
If Font is the SK and was actually hit last night, lynching her now would be us doing the mafias job for them.

Here's another theory: what if wgen Haku covered V, the mafia hit someone else who actually was the SK?

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 

Nevermind shitty theory and completely useless

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 

that was the other thing i was thinking, and once again the answer boils down to DBP/xiz

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 

That's starting to be complex shenanigans even for my wild imagination.

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 

my problem is that we don't know if there are even any mafia remaining, whereas we are certain there is a SK remaining

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 

Jrodd out of Font and Dap who would you think more likely to be the SK?

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 

i wonder why the SK killed storn anyway. prolly went wolf hunting and hit a town LOLOL you

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 

again, i hate SK hunting. i thought yesterday it made perfect sense for it to be font, but i see 0 reason why it can't be DBP

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 

Having me and DBP still alive at this point in the game is making me deeply confused.

I'm probably overthinking.

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 

i just dont like playing with SKs but thats a me problem, theyre way more crapshooty to find

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 

So, let's say we lynch fonti and it's a miss.

What could happen tomorrow?

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 

what does a combo of you AND dbp mean? do you just mean you think he was super clear?

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 

6 people, let's say 1 wolf and SK. we mislynch 5 through the night, let's say 2 town get killed, it's the classic wolf/SK/villager f3 but the SK can't claim in that gambit. essentially it's possible for town to lose today if at least 1 wolf is left

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 

I only ask because I think you're human and you made that post about how dap's never mafia here based off of your experience with him

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 

Anyone here is heavily convinced Xiz is Town?

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 

yea i did, and i pretty much stand by that. if he's a wolf, like AA said, then it was a complete shift from his wolf meta. when i played with DBP and he was a wolf there was a lot of slanking, and it was FROZEN city. here hes lead poster and actively doing stuff. now maybe the veil of no cardflips could lead to more confident wolf play, that's a possibility

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 

not heavily, but sort of

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 

i've come to switch DBP and xiz in my POE order with DBP trending up and xiz trending down. i still think his presence in the thread has been more towny than not tho

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 

What if we elect to no lynch to see how the night actions pan out?

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 

unvote

you all can insta without me because i have to go to bed really soon and dont really see a point leaving my vote on fonti when we can tinfoil a lot more!

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 

this might work actually

If there are no mafia kills, there is only SK, and we don't accidentally mislynch

If there are mafia kill, then the SK is dead, and there is only mafia

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 

i think i like this plan. ill decide tomorrow because like ive said im super tired right now. did someone mention that the wolf team can't no kill but the SK can? clicking the OP to check the rules is too much work

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 

my question is, would the mafia ever NOT shoot the SK tonight?

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 

ok i checked the OP, wolves can't no-kill but SK does so night actions will be very telling

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 

No-Kill Off (For Mafia only)

^ Mafia is forced to shoot something.

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 

basically no-lynching here guarantees that in the next phase, there is only ONE anti-town faction

(which is why I asked the above question to make sure)

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 

the SK no killing would be a pretty bad play anyway because it's a heavy POE right now and it's not like that would clear them in any way

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 

i imagine if the wolves shot the SK they would finish them off, yes. especially if theres one wolf it's not worth having the SK alive and could shoot them at whim

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 

I'd rather take a risk and possibly end the game here tbh even if I understand why we could wait.

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 

What's the winning scenario if we no lynch and there's 1 wolf and a SK?
What's the winning scenario if we no lynch and there's only 1 SK but it's not fonti?

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 

I say we sleep on it and let Xiz and Font het a chance to weigh in

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 

Fine, I have nothing against waiting until EoD.

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 

Actually, I do. I work overtime tomorrow and I won't be here to vote or unvote past a certain point in time.

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 

Just doing this in case you guys want to no lynch in the end and fonti is stuck on 1 vote.

unvote

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 

If there's a mafia and SK kill I think mafia have no choice but to kill the sk at this point unless they are super ballsy, but given the SK knows neither you or myself are mafia they have a fairly narrow pool to shoot in so yeah.

If it's just an SK kill, we lynch fonti 100%..if the game goes on after that then whoever is left between Xiz and Dap would go next