Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

First of all, "fake softed roleblocker" doesn't sound good and I can't find the post in question. Secondly, why would you send a no-kill? Simple, to make your claim more believable when Mikey's flip would put it into question and to help push forward a potential mislynch. It's MyLo, it's not like scum has anything to lose.

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

I feel like I either have to believe both of MML and DBP or believe none of them...

It just seems like too many things would have to fall into place for yesterday to work if only one of those two are scum

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

I dont know about that....

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

Ok to be fair, he's saying for you to believe the quoted post you had to believe he faked it as early as d0

Bro they must be big on slips where your from this is like the 5th time you tried pointing out wording that had no business being pointed out.

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

If both of us are scum then explain my claim. And no, before you repeat what FFA tried to say, my second claim doesnt back up DBP at all.

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

They're not partners. An MML/DBP world doesn't exist here for a lot of reasons

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

If we can prove that DBP is fake; can MML still be real ?

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

Yeah, I'm saying that you would have to believe that my roleblocker softs are fake for this to make sense in that world

sending in a no-kill is suicidal because if MML actually targets a wolf partner then I am needlessly endangering my own chances of success. this would be catastrophic for one major reason

You're looking at TT vs. TTTT. the only difference is the 1-shot role cop vs the regular role cop. if I'm lying then we're in TTTT. if MML happened to target the 1-shot role cop and that person got lynched, they would flip 1-shot role cop which mathematically proves we are in TTTT instead of the TT I was trying to dupe you into. That mechanically outs me too. By no-killing I'm potentially sacrificing 2 wolves for a single gambit that isn't even needed.

so no, fakeclaiming roleblocker and then knowingly no-killing is just not a thing that ever happens in this situation

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

Most likely, otherwise it throws the setup into question.

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

From your perspective, meaning if Haku=Town is a requirement

Then DBP being scum would necessitate an intentional scum nokill last night*



*pending one thing which remains to be seen

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

You still haven't pointed out your supposed softs

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

DBP i need you to link me that D0 soft please

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

Yes it is, because of how conditional probabilities

the difference between 0.1% and 2.5% is marginal in the grand scheme of rands in this setup

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

because I was busy responding to your post calm your tits

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

4T is 27% vs. 16% for 2T. Not too significant a difference on its own, but compounded by the three roleblockers in the latter scenario. Four Ts with three distinct PRs is a normal setup.

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

It didn't take me too long to bring up my softclaim

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

idk, there's a pretty big difference in total rand likelihood.

Odds of exactly VCBTTTT = (0.2734375*0.3720087*0.3720087*0.3720087)*100 = ~1.41%

Odds of Exactly VCBBBTT = (0.1640625*0.0229635*0.3720087*0.3720087)*100 = ~0.05%

The difference is by a factor of 27. That's not marginal

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

Math's my weakest subject

I could use a calculater and google formulas and probably figure it out, but I won't.

DBP's being scum doesn't contradict the known set up and thats all I need to know in regards to rather or not he needs to be considered. Imma be pissed if he's wolf tho because for most of the game he was strongest townread

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

Alright well my head was originally at the fact that dbp would have had to make an obscene risk as scum to claim before knowing there was another roleblocker, but I just realised scum team have a cop so lol

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

Like my gut doesn't believe he's a fake.