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-   -   TWG 194 - Game Thread (http://www.flashflashrevolution.com/vbz/showthread.php?t=151853)

DaBackpack 05-4-2020 04:12 AM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

Originally Posted by leetic (Post 4729529)
The one problem is why scum would select Haku to perform the kill, since he was under a good amount of scrutiny at the end of D3. I can see why they'd choose Haku over jessie, but they had to have a third person that was less risky to try and perform the kill...

how many scrutiny was Haku actually under last phase?

DaBackpack 05-4-2020 04:14 AM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

-I think haku's wishy washiness is bad, they seemed to sheep the townread on me when i was consensus town in early days but not that it is apparent i could be mislycnhable they are building into lynching me, but still not really committing to a scumread. I get i can be tough to play with, but their progression on me feels super fake

Originally Posted by Duskfall (Post 4729522)
How likely are you to vote outside me now?

Considering you were hard townreading me up to earlier today

"I don't think you're town. But please don't vote me this phase"

DaBackpack 05-4-2020 04:16 AM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

Originally Posted by Hakulyte (Post 4729563)
That would also explain why DBP was looking for a SK in Xiz at the beginning of the game.


bro I wasn't looking for a serial killer, I accused XIZ of looking for a serial killer

Hakulyte 05-4-2020 04:18 AM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
Well, I was mostly thinking out loud even if like 75% of it was probably nonsense if you take 5 seconds and think about it.

I bet I correct myself in the later posts too.

DaBackpack 05-4-2020 04:19 AM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

Originally Posted by Hakulyte (Post 4729595)
Well, I was mostly thinking out loud even if like 75% of it was probably nonsense if you take 5 seconds and think about it.

I bet I correct myself in the later posts too.

I'm stream-of-consciousness as I'm catching up it's fine

DaBackpack 05-4-2020 04:37 AM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
I highly doubt MML is lying his role, I think leetic is town despite having a lot of "what-if" posts

Haku feels like he's just confused and going tinfoil mode, which is standard for town Haku; in one lens it might look like he's freezing up and doesn't know what to do to defend himself but given the two options I'm inclined to think he's just overthinking and not able to confidently coalesce on any one worldview. It would be good to force him to behave coherently and at least get something committal from him, especially as time passes, so that Haku can be held actually accountable for something

Dusk has been a transient presence this game and his performance this phase has been underwhelming. I hesitate to think too much about "who would the wolves feel most comfortable with to send in the nightkill?", even though Dusk does potentially fit that bill because of a lack of attention. Duskfall comes from a really bad D3 performance, but he also wasn't really on anybody's radars.= The ideal selection for the nightkill if we decide to go down that route. So TL;DR I find it highly plausible that Duskfall WOULD be considered safe, especially if the wolves knew they could roleblock 1/2 roleblockers. It's impossible to prove anything obviously but I want to establish that-- yes, it is highly likely that Duskfall would be trusted to send in the NK if necessary. (That doesn't mean he DID; I'm responding to claims that "he couldn't possibly have.")

All of his main reads come from other players. He justifies his entire general presence in the game-- his "towniness", the "quality of his reads"-- entirely in terms of dead players. He's gaslighting other players about his towniness ("other dead players thought I was town. You all suck if you don't see that too!"). Haku looks better than Dusk when we look at the game as a whole, and Dusk's only real "way out" is to assert the "no kill" theory so that he can wiggle his way out and maybe take advantage of town's uncertainty and chaos to push some bullshit wagon.

So I'm not willing to give him that wiggle room, at least so easily. Instead of relying on the graciousness of everyone's rabid imaginations, you need to unambiguously act of your own accord and ----convince us---- that you are actually town, instead of weaseling out by saying "hmm I think a no kill is what we should be looking at instead of me directly!"

I intend to vote for Duskfall if things don't radically change in the next 12 hours or so.

DaBackpack 05-4-2020 04:44 AM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
One other thing. "No kill" and "Duskfall are wolves" are not mutually exclusive worlds. There is this convenient idea permeating the thread that even if we believe that a no kill happened, Duskfall is not worthy of scrutiny and that we should direct our attention to other players.

No, Duskfall CAN be a wolf AND not have sent in the wolfkill. For all we know Dusk/Haku are both wolves and neither of them sent in a kill. But the point to hammer home is

Dusk's alignment should not depend exclusively on any of these worlds

The only mechanical information we have about his alignment is that he was blocked and no kills happened. This adds scum equity to him.

If wolves truly did no-kill that should not make you slingshot your read and give him town cred. Please please please look at his slot and properly evaluate him.

When I was catching up it felt like somebody had laid a trap down. The narrative of a no-kill is still possible but Duskfall himself took advantage of that possibility to create the false dichotomy above. I want to stop this trap from firing before we all enter confirmation bias mode.

@Haku, what do you ACTUALLY THINK is happening right now? Put the bullshit aside, take off your tinfoil hat. You are not on the spot. Give us your honest-to-god thoughts

Hakulyte 05-4-2020 04:46 AM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

Originally Posted by flashflash account (Post 4728795)
I don't really think it's that anti town at all
me getting lynched a day before lylo is not a big deal especially when it forces wolves to claim to survive

I'm not quite sure exactly what was FFA's plan in details here, but it seems like he had a strong interest in making claims roll and that it would lead to a wolf.

Originally Posted by flashflash account (Post 4728798)
I'm VT. I didn't check anyone, I don't know if I got roleblocked.
DBP knows I was roleblocked, but I'm still claiming a red check. The only way that's mechanically possible is if dbp got roleblocked as well. They need to account for that possibility by having MML claim roleblocker as well

This turn of event feels like FFA might have caught a wolf MML here because of how specific and convenient was the roleblock on FFA. (or very unlucky coincidence #IForgot)

Originally Posted by flashflash account (Post 4728804)
I did make a case against dbp

what happened? MML threw a tantrum

I had zero influence or inertia into pushing a dbp lynch, just like I had no influence or inertia trying to keep xiz alive till massclaim

I feel like FFA was barking at the wrong tree, but had the right idea.

Duskfall/MML are probably the most confident wolf reads I would give here.

The thing is that I could be wrong about MML in the world where we know that the entire wolf team is in the "VT pool".

I had a lot of talking about a potential MML/DBP team, but that world leads to the game having a SK which seems to be strangely incompatible with what's going on overall.

Honestly, I have a hard time town reading MML over DBP based on game progression and how things unfolded.

MML doesn't even look that bad either. It's just the claim that felt very out of place.

Hakulyte 05-4-2020 05:03 AM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
I think the highest % successful play here is to trust the roleblock on Duskfall (even if it's a no kill scenario).

Also, revisit MML if the game is not over.

I'm a bit worried about Jessie.
I have to say that I don't like how her posts are mostly about objective stuff.
Don't like X because didn't do enough or not enough by the book etc. and then kind of back away.
She was here, but it feels dodge-y kind of like Duskfall to me.

Bolth had a very similar game to me so, I tend to believe he feels organic enough for what the game gave him. I tend to town read him even if I'm not completely sure why. It's more like we keep reacting the same way to the same things.

ShadoWolfe is being ShadoWolfe I guess. I have no reason to scum read here, but paranoia.

Pretty much praying game is as simple as Duskfall/MML/Jessie.

Hakulyte 05-4-2020 05:06 AM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
That being said, I wanted to priorize a VT pool player.

Duskfall has mechanic baggage supporting the block. (well, at least from my perspective)
Jessie is mostly the UTR card being played a little too much.

MML feels too convenient for what the FFA vs DBP gave me and I think the point of him claiming here was to fit under the 1 PR/2 VTs pool to make solving more difficult.

Hakulyte 05-4-2020 05:07 AM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
Basically, MML would be a reverse pocket and the real person being pocketed here was DBP.

I'm going to look stupid in postgame aren't I ?

Hakulyte 05-4-2020 05:12 AM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

Originally Posted by DaBackpack (Post 4729598)
If wolves truly did no-kill that should not make you slingshot your read and give him town cred. Please please please look at his slot and properly evaluate him. [/b]

I went there, but I got to the conclusion that the only way a no-kill world would make sense is if both you and MML are wolves.

That world would lead to VCTTTTT and there's no sign of a SK.

That dimension kinds of become bogus because of it.

Hakulyte 05-4-2020 05:15 AM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
It's either that of MML took a gamble that your roleblock would fail.

The thing is that if MML and you are W/T then why in the world he doesn't just RB + NK you ?

It's sub optimal and nonsensical to me. I understand it can happen, but I don't want to believe it.

Hakulyte 05-4-2020 05:17 AM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

Originally Posted by Hakulyte (Post 4729361)
If 2 roleblockers roleblock each others, but the wolf roleblocker is also doing a NK on that town player, does the town block succeed or they die ?

It leads me back to this question ^

Hakulyte 05-4-2020 05:22 AM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

Originally Posted by Makilaz (Post 4725954)
All mafia roles will be able to both perform any of their role actions AND also make the nightkill.

This may be noteworthy.

The idea would be that wolves may have taken a risk by stacking the night actions on 1 player and it ended up very poorly.

Hakulyte 05-4-2020 05:24 AM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
tl;dr: I think Duskfall is exactly the Wolf Roleblocker.

Hakulyte 05-4-2020 05:26 AM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
[cricket noises]

Hakulyte 05-4-2020 05:30 AM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
I still have a very hard time understanding how this team makes sense with all the PR actions in this game.

Hakulyte 05-4-2020 05:42 AM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
It's also not unthinkable to believe that a wolf could have created a fake alibi with the roleblocker role.
I just find DBP's neural network thing more logical than "I forgot".

If I tinfoil hard enough, I could town read MML's claim over making little sense as a wolf.
I could say that the neural network thing could have been a plan for wolf DBP to setup an alibi for later on "just in case".

If DBP is fake then Duskfall would become a victim in that world and most likely be a town player.
You'd have a no kill scenario here for baiting a NK on Duskfall/X.

tl;dr: This would create a Duskfall/DBP thunderdome or a Haku/Duskfall thunderdome if both DBP/MML are town.
So, really, it's just a matter of who you town read the most, why, what do you think makes sense here and what do you think has the best odds of being right.

Bolth mannn 05-4-2020 05:44 AM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
Hey guys, Iím on for a few more hours tonight, but I donít think Iím going to be able to make EoD tomorrow.. Iíll be up 2 hours before EoD but I have a pretty hectic morning so Iíll try to skim/catch up but it really depends how much activity there has been and if I have the time

Should I cast my vote now? I donít want to put town in a mechanically worse position by voting early but nothing Iíve read today has changed my mind, only really strengthened it

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