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-   -   TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread] (http://www.flashflashrevolution.com/vbz/showthread.php?t=149562)

Tps222 08-28-2018 10:02 PM
Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by inDheart (Post 4646679)
ok well i currently forget how conditional probabilities work, so i'm not in a position to show you math

but fmpov the 2/3 is 100% because i'll always be voting to lynch not-me

following your scenario actually just kinda makes things longer for no reason

(i'm into the last 50 xiz posts btw)
You/funny/blind will all of course push that position forward, it
means nothing and then we face the possibility of an SK/wolf bandwagon at the last second that literally loses us the game.

inDheart 08-28-2018 10:06 PM
Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Xiz (Post 4641437)
but like, if you are my partner then would that mean you would go kill yourself?
this is from super early game to me and is hilarious now in the context of this reading i'm doin

Quote:
Originally Posted by Xiz (Post 4641948)
theres no way greg would slip like that this early, like if tps and greg were in wolf chat together, i refuse to believe he would say that.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Xiz (Post 4641951)
oh wait, no did tps say something about that i forgot
Quote:
Originally Posted by Xiz (Post 4641952)
k no tps didn't. Not a hard iso with 2 posts lol
these last two posts are just super throwaway

Quote:
Originally Posted by Xiz (Post 4641957)
Sorry cel but if anything that vote looks more wolfy than anything. It would be more beneficial for you to go after someone actually here or talking or at least have made 2 posts this game lol

hot take: if cel is a wolf then sunfan might be partners with him
Quote:
Originally Posted by Xiz (Post 4641964)
but like, if he doesnt post he will get modkilled so he will post or die its that simple

now if he does something and pull a xel like the previous game and come in to post 5 posts at eod then thats just not helping town progress at all
hey thanks, past me for not liking this at the time and saying he could be using it to protect a partner

Quote:
Originally Posted by Xiz (Post 4641968)
cel if that was a joke vote that went over my head lol
defusal

Quote:
Originally Posted by Xiz (Post 4641973)
okay, i get what you are saying but while you are in thread now, its better for town for you to look into people who are here or responsive.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Xiz (Post 4641982)
no i don't like it either, perhaps i misspoke.

it's more of like, if they get modkilled then so be it but for the time being, it's better to go after someone else until they show up. that we can agree on, no?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Xiz (Post 4641988)
if this was at the end of d1 then yes, i would agree with that point.

at this current stage of the game, no theres time so like, it's kinda a dead vote.
pretty attentive to wanting people off tps, but then...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Xiz (Post 4642204)
i was thinking of a possible tps/sunfan pairing with sunfans previous thoughts, but would sunfan have the balls to post the entire wolf team like that?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Xiz (Post 4642463)
While a lot of what ind has said i dont understand (his whole thing on me and cel must being a pair) i like his read on tps.

I still am kinda spooked by the whole sunfan comments about tps from earlier but im not sure how much weight that carries right now.

Also what do you mean by blinds paranoia, especially when (was it you?) who stated that his wolf and town games are really similar, i cant remember who said it. I am unsure of how i feel about blind personally but i wanna know more where you are comin from
tps becomes a pop wolf he likes naming and floating but not lynching

Quote:
Originally Posted by Xiz (Post 4642469)
i don't remember him doing that
re: tps picking 3 names, suggesting it's not a worthy point in favor of him being town

Quote:
Originally Posted by Xiz (Post 4642724)
whats the point of this question
felt like he jumped on this question (gradiant's "share views with tps?" to fg) at the mention of tps

Quote:
Originally Posted by Xiz (Post 4643150)
In b4 wolf team is precarious/blind/tps actually lol
rule of 3 rules again?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Xiz (Post 4643672)
tps feels ooportunistic
i think this is in reaction to me voting tps, rather than saying tps is opportunistic

Quote:
Originally Posted by Xiz (Post 4644334)
the 3 tps posts had no context just complaints
Quote:
Originally Posted by Xiz (Post 4644344)
Freezin/Funny would make sense here for me, third being somewhere probably in that afk's like TPS

if the wagons are actually clean, i think prec and cel would be looked at next? but i still think theres gotta be one on the grad/sunfan wagons d1
Quote:
Originally Posted by Xiz (Post 4644380)
for the time being i'd like you to try and think of a world where funny is a wolf. I can agree with blind, i might be wrong on him but it's a mistake to think like that. I'm bias because i aint no woof woof but still

also where are you on TPS
Quote:
Originally Posted by Xiz (Post 4644391)
not too likely that you will look at tps or funny/blind
(both of these are to sunfan in sequence, sunfan responds that he'd consider lynching tps but doesn't share the reads on funny/blind and xiz gives a "big oof")

2270 long post where he's "devil's advocate" putting tps as the 3rd in his hypothetical wolf team

Quote:
Originally Posted by Xiz (Post 4645251)
i feel as though im good at finding softs but I never caught it, no way to prove it i guess. I can't even remember why i voted for dbp at this stage but i know i liked my reason.
tps scumleans xiz, citing past game experience and knowing what he's capable of, and thinking he caught the dbp soft

reaction to mass claim just seems kinda headnoddy


hwap

inDheart 08-28-2018 10:07 PM
Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Celirra (Post 4646680)
So if we no lynch, that puts this phase at 5, which can actually lead to an insta draw here if sk and wolf kill a town each, or if tps hides even though he shouldn't.
It could put us at 4, with a town dying, which creates ambiguity of if there is even a SK. In that situation we would have to no lynch as well though, and effectively leave it up to RNG that we win.
No lynch is useless; but arguably as well, it's the only way for a wolf tps to win. I cant see any other angle for wanting a no lunch here
yeah since he said it i've been thinking about the ramifications

if he's just a wolf, then only one person can die, and then i think it's no longer allowed to be you

and what he's gonna spin is "huh, they both must have flipped the coin wrong, that's weird"

so like, maybe it's not that bad of an outcome actually because i just figured out the story lol, but it feels bad

Tps222 08-28-2018 10:09 PM
Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 
Cel, I'm trying to bank on prisoners dilemma with two chances for us to essentially lock the game this night vs fucking it up and losing for sure today. I'm not saying it's the only path, just the optimal. Your strategy is based around the worst case scenario happening post no-lynch instead of the most likely one. You're the only person I trust at this point right now so I'm a little disappointed that you're playing as discouraged as you are. Pit the desperate roles against each other makes the most sense to me, I don't even understand why you think I would want this to go any further than what is reasonable.

Tps222 08-28-2018 10:14 PM
Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 
If we want to stake the game on a 66% chance of getting it right today then I'll do it, but we have to be sure about the target or it's game over.

Celirra 08-28-2018 10:26 PM
Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 
Well thats why I advocated for a mislynch, so that if we do mislynch then they would actually have to kill each other if they want any chance of winning, because technically if we mislynch it's impossible for a sk or wolf to win

Celirra 08-28-2018 10:33 PM
Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 
Anyways how do you guys feel about a fg lynch
fg if you're town I hope you realize even still that you getting lynched is better than a no lynch

inDheart 08-28-2018 10:33 PM
Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by FreezinIce (Post 4643325)
Why do you only show up to trash me
lmao

Quote:
Originally Posted by FreezinIce (Post 4643469)
Why blind
to dbp's lynch pool, which includes himself and tps

1697 reads, xiz town, tps scumlean but kinda shruggy
"Tps: Entrance, vote on me, pce out. That is Tps' presence today which is filthy. The only thing giving me pause is I know Tps' meta from ffya twg heavily emphasizes ootc so this might be a fish out of water situation. Wouldn't mind him dying just to simplify the game."

1931 updated reads, tps in purgatory along with prec, xiz scum

Quote:
Originally Posted by FreezinIce (Post 4644269)
Tps some reads today would be nice
Quote:
Originally Posted by FreezinIce (Post 4645231)
Give me what your smoking
(in response to cel's "what if tps and freezin are w/w")

2460 reads, by now tps has claimed, he calls xiz a "mislynch waiting to happen" here


bope. i left tps for last since fewest posts

notably neither of the two has really dealt with whether or not tps' claim was real at the time, although that sentiment may have been common because his claim made for a valid setup. but it's not even like "oh i was wrong", it's just, stopped talking about him at all

inDheart 08-28-2018 10:34 PM
Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Celirra (Post 4646690)
Anyways how do you guys feel about a fg lynch
fg if you're town I hope you realize even still that you getting lynched is better than a no lynch
it works for me

also thanks for writing this, i've meant to get around to writing a post like that like "i may not even be lynching you as a wolf here but this is part of resolving this to my mechanical satisfaction"

YoshL 08-28-2018 10:47 PM
Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 
Votes from post 2904 to post 2989
Night in 0:13:26
---
  • Votes -- Lynch -- Voters
  • 1 -- unvote -- Funnygurl555 (9)
  • 4 -- not voting -- blindreper1179 (8), Celirra (21), inDheart (33), Tps222 (12)

:00 good :01 bad

inDheart 08-28-2018 10:48 PM
Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 
463 also nice rule of 3 lol (in me/sunfan/xiz)

next post is calling sunfan townie, so leaving me and xiz in the void there, and that's all of day 1

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tps222 (Post 4643195)
Despite sunfan repeatedly calling me out all game I still think he's one of the most townie.

and I think [vote]freezn[/vote] is the least townie. Posts like this don't sit well with me:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tps222 (Post 4643322)
You're so full of shit lmao. You and DBP are riding this same logic wave with indheart. I am convinced that 2/3 of you are wolves, and that there is a concerted effort to going against either myself or Sunfan right now without any merit aside from vague feelings.

I'm comfortable leaving my vote on you until EoD at this point.
and this was all of day 2: hard push into freezin that doesn't really get picked up because he has not much thread pull and people were doing other things

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tps222 (Post 4645129)
Town Leans:

Cel, Freezn, inDHeart, Funnygurl

Neurtal:

Sunfan, Prec

Scum lean:

Blindreper, Xiz

I've had a town lean on sunfan all game so I'm honestly a little surprised to see that he isn't seeing the forest through the trees here.

Precarious worries me a little bit for his reaction, I agree with inDHeart that his delayed claim (yeah I know pot calling kettle black) was weird, and his back and forth with Blindreper seemed really forced after a while. I really get the feeling that Xiz is capable of coaching Blind up on that and was happy to take advantage of freezn bringing that fight back up yesterday, and that I'm relatively confident that there is 1 wolf out of Blind/Xiz/Prec.
freezin now town from claim, i'm now town just as a read i guess, leaving xiz from that initial 3 who he has at scumlean

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tps222 (Post 4645141)
I think he's most likely to have guessed DBP as a power role after the way he went after him on Day 1, including leaving his vote on him.

He backed off onto FG day 2 but that was a pretty weak vote in itself. He has played pretty chaotically in general and is one of the few people in this game that I have actually played more than one game with before, so it'a combination of motive and what I believe he is capable of.

I'm not necessarily at the point of putting a vote on him yet though, I'm curious to hear what BlindReper thinks of him.
talked about this before with xiz's posts, this is his reason for the scumlean on xiz

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tps222 (Post 4645394)
My internet is shoddy at my friend's house, I'm feeling more confident that there is a wolf between xiz and blind after the most recent back and forth

The only reasons im holding off on xiz is the fact that he didn't try to justify or explain his day 1 vote on DBP, in my mind a wolf would have tried to give a plausible explanation for it considering the card flip.

I'm not reassured that blind is clear just because people think this is normal behavior for him. Him and precarious have been going at it all game and I find precarious to lean much more town with his recent posts than blind has been. Blind banking off that cockiness meta is the right play if he's a wolf and a dumb play imo if he's not.

Posting from my phone so apologies if i fuck up that bbcode.
ends up favoring blind over xiz toward eod3, which was almost good enough to save xiz

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tps222 (Post 4646311)
Alright, home and caught back up.

We absolutely should be lynching today, I understand what Celirra is saying but I agree more with Sunfan's line of reasoning here, like the ol' Coach Herm Edwards famously said "You play to win the game".
honestly this quote makes the current argument funny, because i think i'm definitely playing to win by moving to lynch


not as much as i thought there'd be; i think a team with tps wolf on it thinks they can get a lot of mileage out of claiming, but it's not a route available to xiz because they already went forward and made the two claims they could safely make, and the situation they dealt with eod3 was a lot of town being very right about him

the claims give tps an escape hatch to just suddenly townread freezin here after having him at scum and voting him all d2, because otherwise nothing explains the progression

and similarly xiz can get pulled out of his scumread on tps, though he was also getting lynched so at a point that stopped mattering

Celirra 08-28-2018 10:48 PM
Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 
funnygurl555

Celirra 08-28-2018 10:49 PM
Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 
Ind I think you're wasting your time a bit here to be totally honest unless it's for self satisfaction
I dont think tps needs to be looked at because if hes a wolf it would be very obvious


btw tps dont hide, if theres no kills in the night I would advocate for lynching you

inDheart 08-28-2018 10:50 PM
Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 
funnygurl555

the elite play is just to lynch tps considering that's where i'm at, but it doesn't deal with the dangerous ambiguity between us three

i know i'm town. i can't know you guys are unless i do this. mechanical satisfaction and all that

i think we got this though

inDheart 08-28-2018 10:51 PM
Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Celirra (Post 4646696)
Ind I think you're wasting your time a bit here to be totally honest unless it's for self satisfaction
I dont think tps needs to be looked at because if hes a wolf it would be very obvious


btw tps dont hide, if theres no kills in the night I would advocate for lynching you
i just want the work out there, i think

the f3 shouldn't be bad, yes, that's the point i've been trying to make. it's a legacy of sorts for me

Celirra 08-28-2018 10:53 PM
Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 
Mechanically (hi sunfan), lynching not tps here is correct, and so is avoiding a no lynch
Sorry friend tps

inDheart 08-28-2018 10:54 PM
Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 
also yes good point with that last bit about no hiding

Celirra 08-28-2018 10:55 PM
Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 
This doesnt feel like a f5

Celirra 08-28-2018 10:57 PM
Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 
Ind if you're bored quickly explain why you didnt vote btw

Celirra 08-28-2018 10:57 PM
Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 
Nabbing post 3000


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