Re: jTWG LXXXIV: 8 New Players and Raeko Game Thread
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Why would Yoshi switch from gold stinger to voting mellon so quickly? Their reasoning: my argument swayed them What I see: If Yoshi is a town: This is a bad play. People already don't trust them. The fact Yoshi joins a new vote suggestion so quickly and without any acknowledgement of how weird it is makes them look weird. The reason Yoshi gave would be the true reason, he just went for the most compelling candidate, despite the optics that would result from this. Conclusion: if Yoshi is town, he plays an independent town. Yoshi doesn't care what people think about them, as long as Yoshi finds the wolf. I find this believable. If Yoshi is a wolf: Yoshi moved their vote to melloncollie to get a train going. Melloncollie has a "big dick" wall of text lining up with her actions, which would make her an easy mislynch if a lot of people get on this train. However, I find this play wouldn't make sense as a wolf. * I cannot picture a world where a junior wolf would attempt to make waves at this point in the game. My entire reasoning is based on this hypothesis. By moving their vote, Yoshi is clearly making some big waves. Any player who rolled wolf, regardless of how noob they are, can understand how votes attract attention, and why switching votes so suddenly at that specific time would be the equivalent of digging their own grave. No one does that. There is nothing to gain here. * I cannot picture a world were a Veteran wolf would attempt to make waves at this point either. A veteran knows better than to completely 180 their thoughts from a single townie post. It looks bad, like "oh, this town says something that fits my agenda, so I approve!". It looks bad from a mile away. Nobody attemps that. Tl;dr, I only see this strange vote switch if Yoshi is a town that doesn't care what people think about them. This is what I'll choose to believe from now on. I'm able to reconciliate the picture I had of them before their vote switch with their current actions. |
Re: jTWG LXXXIV: 8 New Players and Raeko Game Thread
Tl dr
Yoshi is town, let's go elsewhere |
Re: jTWG LXXXIV: 8 New Players and Raeko Game Thread
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Re: jTWG LXXXIV: 8 New Players and Raeko Game Thread
what wifom are you thinking of
If you're thinking of the dilemma that arises from trying to predict whether someone has made an optimal but expected choice, or a suboptimal but unexpected one. then you are correct. https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=WIFOM |
Re: jTWG LXXXIV: 8 New Players and Raeko Game Thread
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Re: jTWG LXXXIV: 8 New Players and Raeko Game Thread
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Re: jTWG LXXXIV: 8 New Players and Raeko Game Thread
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And yes, shadow's read of raeko looks dodge-ish, like "I don't want to make a read here", it factored into my vote for raeko |
Re: jTWG LXXXIV: 8 New Players and Raeko Game Thread
I’m also very prone to just randomly saying shit at the moment.
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It actually had the opposite effect Quote:
I don't know if you see what I mean? Like I feel like your logic on the situation is maybe flawed, but maybe it's mine that's flawed and I don't know how statistics work |
Re: jTWG LXXXIV: 8 New Players and Raeko Game Thread
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Right now, you are quoting a post you made where you said the equivalent of " I read everyone who voted for Shadow as town, so I'm contributing to finding towns!". There are issues with bringing this up, though - this is not rocket science. Everyone that voted Shadow looks good, because yes, Shadow was a wolf. Everyone assumes that right off the bat as d1 starts: sven (rip), GS and me were the best town candidates for the first second of d1 by default - you did mention these reads earlier. That's one thing. Now you're bringing them back. What for? No new knowledge is gained, you just look like someone trying to prove their innocence, but your evidence is entirely controlled by you since it's your post. If you want to prove something, prove us your intent, rather than bringing the fact you said something. |
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I'm resisting its call |
Re: jTWG LXXXIV: 8 New Players and Raeko Game Thread
I still read Yoshi as town. No way any wolf, regardless of skill, would attempt to play like this. I refuse.
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Re: jTWG LXXXIV: 8 New Players and Raeko Game Thread
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and assume in that situation, Yoshi is the final wolf instead of Antori. It doesn't really work imo because Yoshi never responded or even tried to help themselves the entire eod. That's really REALLY bad as 2 wolves, and I don't think Shadowgod would set that up by himself considering they both had access to wolfchat at the time. |
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but my assumption is based off of -- oh right shadowgod literally voted for yoshi right after backing off of antori yeah ok that's a really good point and I'm an idiot for not seeing it sooner |
Re: jTWG LXXXIV: 8 New Players and Raeko Game Thread
@Sanzath
@ Gold stinger Your endless arguing is confusing everyone. Are you guys on the same page, or not? What are your summarized opinions? |
Re: jTWG LXXXIV: 8 New Players and Raeko Game Thread
Also I'm really sorry MN, I read all of d0 Sanzath and all I found was a ShyYoshiGuy/MN wolf read early that shadowgod joked about being correct, and some slight tunneling on H&H.
I can try re-reading d1 Sanzath but I'm not hopeful that I will find anything from a new angle or that I agree with in a town-solving scenario. |
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