Originally Posted by fontisian (Post 4412450)

Wait what.

If it's been done here then why are you all so confused?

Originally Posted by Hakulyte (Post 4412451)

I don't get what you mean by "again" here's all my actions for simplicity.

N0 - I free saved XelNya (I random.org that one)
N1 - I saved Vendetta (It felt obvious he was going to be targeted imo.)
N2 - I called I was going to used my 1 shot vigi on DBP, used it, and got roleblocked.

This makes me conclude that YoshL may actually have been a Mafia even if I never had any proof about him.

Day 3 - DBP self-cleared himself from everything I had against him. He's 80%+ Town for me now and no longer a target until the end of the game.

I also think rzr/j-rodd123 is like 70% Town, besides the sketchy claim Day 3 + replacing out, I think he was fairly genuine overall.

So, I only got roleblocked N2 and I'm out of actions so, you're unlikely to see me get roleblocked again.

My lynch order would be like:

Fontisian -> AA -> storn42/Xiz.

Everyone else is town.

I think storn42/Xiz are about on the same level in terms of alignment read. I think they're both low-profile Towns. I'd like it if they hard claimed/said things that would make them look very alignment indicative, but it doesn't feel necessary for today.

Originally Posted by Hakulyte (Post 4412453)

I didn't get roleblocked.

Originally Posted by fontisian (Post 4412420)

I am still a she.

I apologize if you're town and the claim tilted you. I think your reaction was more town than not, but I don't think I'm confident enough to go with that read until the end of the game :/

Originally Posted by AragakiAyase (Post 4412459)

my bad I just defaulted, I'll try to remember

I am town and the claim threw me off especially since it seemed like people were going along with it. I need to do more analysis as well still

Originally Posted by fontisian (Post 4412460)

Let's say you're town for a moment. Mafia would have known the claim was fake and would have been trying to figure out what I was doing, yeah? And anyone who actually believed it can't be mafia. With that in mind, what do you think of the way each person reacted?

Originally Posted by AragakiAyase (Post 4412459)

I am town

Originally Posted by Hakulyte (Post 4412462)

You should have said that sooner wtf..

Never lynch AA guys.

Originally Posted by Red Blaster (Post 4412461)

This is kinda flawed reasoning.

Originally Posted by Hakulyte (Post 4412464)

That's a joke btw. I'm trying to learn fontisian humor.

Originally Posted by fontisian (Post 4412467)

Why is it flawed?

Haku: I already pointed out that dbp, storn and AA likely contain the mafia and SK. I think you are town, Blaster is confirmed, and Xiz and rzr are very likely town with their conviction. I believe that dbp is the most likely mafia of the three for several reasons:
1. He claimed to think I was mafia and AA was SK during the claim in part because I was not voting on AA. If I were actually mafia in this scenario, I would always be voting AA, as a quick lynch gives me the win.
2. He did not try to actually figure out the claim by looking over V's posts, as Xiz did, yet acted very excited when Xiz posted information pointing to the claim being real. If he was so excited, why was he not doing research himself? I suspect it was because he knew I was fake and didn't think he'd find anything.
3. When I rescinded, he echoed Xiz's confusion, but it rang hollow. I think this constitutes a pattern of him trying to immitate likely town players in order to look town, a common mafia tactic.

Originally Posted by fontisian (Post 4412467)

Why is it flawed?

Originally Posted by DaBackpack (Post 4412193)

all of your checks, now

Originally Posted by DaBackpack (Post 4412204)

I have thoughts about the cop thing, but I want to watch and see what happens

Originally Posted by DaBackpack (Post 4412221)

if this is true, this is spectacular

Originally Posted by DaBackpack (Post 4412244)

if I totally agreed with you I'd be voting AA right now

I have some reservations

Originally Posted by DaBackpack (Post 4412253)

I want to watch AA struggle before giving him something he might latch onto

Originally Posted by DaBackpack (Post 4412262)

yes, and this is a major reservation of mine

Originally Posted by DaBackpack (Post 4412271)

Strictly speaking, it's possible if V was a wolf and left something in the wolfchat

Is that likely? that's whta I'm trying to figure out

Originally Posted by DaBackpack (Post 4412272)

That alone isn't enough to doubt you obviously

Originally Posted by fontisian (Post 4412472)

Xiz is trying to solve the game. The others are not.

Originally Posted by Red Blaster (Post 4412473)

The mafia would've known it was fabricated from the start, so any reaction fishing from that point kinda becomes moot given they would react accordingly with the knowledge that you were full of it. So you saying "And anyone who actually believed it can't be mafia" means next to nothing when the only person who expressed general disbelief of it was the person you were faking the check on.

Backpack's reaction for example was a mixture of belief and skepticism:

Originally Posted by Hakulyte (Post 4412477)

I don't think V can be Mafia for a very simple reason.

The only N1 scenario where Mafia doesn't target Vendetta is the one where they hit the bulletproof vest.

If they hit the bulletproof vest, there's no reason for them to not murder the SK next night and throw him/her out of the game.

Therefore according to me, Mafia has definitely target V N1.

If Mafia target V N1, it means that V cannot be Mafia.

I'm fairly convinced that V is the SK tho and that Mafia felt unsecure about continuing to try to lynch V after I claimed that I protected him.

Everything so far is pointing me into that direction. Fontisian's play just raised that suspicion even more to the point that I can't ignore her anymore.

I also have a very hard time conceiving the existence of a world where you're Vanilla Town after fake claiming Cop and soft-claiming SK as a joke.

I also think the Mafia is in a similar situation with the Zenith ragequit sinking ship. #hi AA
P'
The only uncertain left would be storn42 for me, but I think he's doing his typical scum-looking Town play and he feels fairly clear to me to not bother.

If there's 2 or more Mafia alive tho, this game is not going to end well lol.

Sadly, since SK can't claim, I feel forced to lynch that person first in what a normal game would have been like "a good moment to make some pact and do tactical stuff together."

Therefore, because of the rules, I'm sticking to fontisian and I'll have to pray that there's only 1 Mafia left in the game.

*shrugs*

Originally Posted by fontisian (Post 4412475)

I'm not saying anyone who pretended to believe it, I'm saying anyone who actually believed.

For example, I believe that Xiz believed it. Therefore, Xiz is town. I also believe that DBP was hedging his bets on the claim, and it therefore more likely mafia.

In short, this is a tool that /can/ be used to figure out alignments.

Originally Posted by Hakulyte (Post 4412457)

Okay.

fontisian - SK
AA - Mafia

Thanks for clarifying.

Originally Posted by fontisian (Post 4412460)

Let's say you're town for a moment. Mafia would have known the claim was fake and would have been trying to figure out what I was doing, yeah? And anyone who actually believed it can't be mafia. With that in mind, what do you think of the way each person reacted?

Originally Posted by fontisian (Post 4412472)

Xiz is trying to solve the game. The others are not.

Originally Posted by j-rodd123 (Post 4412476)

yea the lynch pool is AA/DBP/xiz/fonti/storn

from what ive seen so far i'd clear xiz the most out of them, and i have liked fonti's posts today. if it's true that there was no wolf kill when haku targetted V then fonti is polarized to town or SK

i need to clear someone out of AA/DBP/storn then, is there any reason why i should be reading any of you 3 town?

Originally Posted by AragakiAyase (Post 4412491)

it would be self meta and I'm not going to use that

you can look at my reaction to the fake check and decide for yourself

Originally Posted by AragakiAyase (Post 4412489)

I'm not trying to solve the game?

Originally Posted by DaBackpack (Post 4412485)

I'll get into more detail when I'm out of work, but this doesn't make sense

imagine hypothetically that I'm a wolf or SK and you fakeclaimed AA as a wolf

why on earth would I not latch on to that? why would I actively try to dismantle your argument?

within this mindset the only situation that makes sense is that AA and I are partners together, which I guess would make sense for me to "hedge my bets", but that's about it

Originally Posted by AragakiAyase (Post 4412491)

it would be self meta and I'm not going to use that

you can look at my reaction to the fake check and decide for yourself

Originally Posted by j-rodd123 (Post 4412499)

haku there is only one IC, it's not something that happens every day, no one else will be confirmed

Originally Posted by fontisian (Post 4412498)

You are now. You kind of dropped off the face of the earth for a bit.

Originally Posted by AragakiAyase (Post 4412504)

I had class all day lol

Originally Posted by fontisian (Post 4412502)

I'd just like to take a moment to emphasize that even if you believe I'm the sk, it's best not to lynch me until later, as there is a chance of hitting the actual sk in the meantime (which would be confirmed by night actions) and would then fully clear me.

Originally Posted by fontisian (Post 4412509)

The renegade doctor shot is used. Is the SK even allowed to self shoot?

Originally Posted by AragakiAyase (Post 4412516)

I think we should definitely lynch storn unless something changes

Originally Posted by Hakulyte (Post 4412518)

I originally thought IC would keep appearing every phase and now I currently don't have a backup strategy anymore. So, I'm looking for second opinions I guess.

Originally Posted by j-rodd123 (Post 4412530)

No I'm at school, I do think I agree with a storn lynch as of right now tho

Originally Posted by Hakulyte (Post 4412533)

I disagree with a storn lynch, I consider fonti/AA higher priority and I'm not willing to flip a coin on storn even though he could indeed be something.

I think there's enough information out already to do a better lynch than him.

Originally Posted by AragakiAyase (Post 4412538)

lol why do you think I'm mafia again? is it because I "tunneled" on you?

Originally Posted by fontisian (Post 4412534)

That's nice.

Storn

Let's go, AA.

Originally Posted by Hakulyte (Post 4412539)

That and Zenith's play.

Originally Posted by AragakiAyase (Post 4412548)

do you seriously believe I was tunneling on you? I said earlier that I considered the world where you're actually scum but discarded it as highly unlikely

Originally Posted by Hakulyte (Post 4412551)

Yes. To me it felt like a scum trying to find out a ghost play against me and giving up because it's not working out.

Originally Posted by Hakulyte (Post 4412553)

I also iso'd storn and I'm confused why he's even brought up as being a potential priority lynch for today. He's just a scapegoat for you two imo.