Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

When I'm awake and on a computer I want to look at Greggles and see his stuff

I'm nearly 60% sure he's town

But those odds aren't good enough in a situation like this

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

Today's theme

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

Or this tbh. This is a bit more fitting

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

hewwo

anyway I'm awake and it's not saturday night anymore

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

hi
I have read all of the things

the good news is I'm not going to be making my trip today
the bad news is I think I'm sick

anyways

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

I read all of DBP's posts
I had no idea literally everyone else was scumreading plop who has died
I don't know that this has the level of confidence that DBP seems to be giving it, but I must concede that it is a point against plop to have so many of the dead scumreading him

I'm a bit confused as to something DBP said about the wolves being
1) plop
2) Yoshl
3) Sunfan/Freezin

I don't think I should be a candidate for third if he has Yoshl second given that he thinks Yoshl and I can't be together

I'd like to hear from raeko and Shadow if Shadow can like
get his shit together enough to think about what to do today

but I think I'm not going to campaign very hard for Freezin today, and instead worry about that tomorrow if we get there (hopefully we do)

if the game continues at a normal pace, and we hit a wolf today, people can expect to not be nightkilled if they aren't blue, so I think its somewhat alright for me to be calmer about Freezin today

he still is absolutely my biggest scumread

I think I will take Force off of my list entirely, its because he was very upset at the Subaru kill/flip

I don't really think he's lying about snapping at people IRL over it as a wolf, that seems very unnecessary, and its not even something he's trying to get credit over; no one's even talked about it yet (its why I moved him down in my order initially, but I think I'll put plop on it in his place now)

as long as raeko is town, I think we might actually have this today, somehow? DBP is right that, while town is vulnerable, wolves are also vulnerable today as well, and can potentially just lose the game slowly starting today.

raeko, can you specifically elaborate on your feeling on plop?

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

Well, this is a huge fucking bummer.

Dap, I asked you to take a look at a world where I'm town, and to take a look at it in good faith. You never did that. Instead, you went through everything with a theory that I'm a wolf and looked for evidence that you could interpret in that light. And of course you found shit that you were happy with. That's the way this game is. At this point you could talk yourself into making almost any combination of players in your scumpile make sense. Like, some of your points seem to boil down to, "If plop is a wolf, he would've done this for this reason, and that makes sense, so it supports him being a wolf" when the inverse ("If plop is town, he would've done this for this reason, and that makes sense, so it supports him being town") is just as true too.

Like, I don't even know what to say here. You came to the wrong conclusion. Let's talk it out, and I'll try my best to prove my towniness to you, but I really, really want you to keep an open mind about me being town while we do so.

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

I'm not a wolf. I promise I'm not. I pinky-promise. I'll even red truth it for you: In the game TWG 198, I, plopadop, rolled Unimportant Witness.

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

I'm trying to think of a way of expressing this point without sounding like an asshole, but it's like...

I feel like this is one of the better games I've had as far as solving goes. Outside of FFA, I've been right about basically everyone else who's either flipped or claimed. You can say it's wolf TMI, but I'd have to be a pretty fucking stupid wolf to keep on townreading mislynch'd and NK'd players after FG literally pointed it out as something I do as a wolf. Haku even said he'd look into it and keep an eye on it, and if you look at my ISO, you can see that getting haku to townread me was important to me.

Basically, I've been right this game. You guys can argue against my reasonings, but at the end of the day they brought me to the right place. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I have the best track record out of anyone else in the game dead or alive

I get that dap and shadow are PRs, of course, but outside of that, it really frustrates me that you guys want to trust in the reads of a bunch of dead players (who were so wrong on so many of their reads that dap had to bust out the fucking "a broken clock is right twice a day!" defense) and a bunch of alive players who, again, haven't gotten the results that I've gotten.

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

my townreads yesterday were shadow, DBP, raeko and fg (before the sub) as town

pending raeko, that seems pretty good thus far

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

That's true. You've been pretty on-point this game too.

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

You picked red and not green?
lol

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

DBP, I've read through the entirety of your analysis, and I'm curious why he can't be wolfing with YoshL and Plop. I feel like his interactions with YoshL haven't been many, and what they have been haven't done anything. There's been no building from within them.
Sunfan did put out that early vote (or at least sus) saying to give YoshL credit in terms of his wolfing vs. town, but I don't think sunfan has ever once given a solid read on YoshL.

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

he's probably a wolf cuz I think you and I are the towns

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

like, I'm not good at reading Yoshl, but by the power of POE, I don't have to be

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

hi sorry I'm here I've been painting my house all day but my mother has promised me she will leave me tf alone until the next coat is needed

anyways time to smoke and read and vibe

gotta get some tunes going

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

So your wolves are now...
Freezin, YoshL, and... Raeko?

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

Laziest fuckin' read ever.

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

Oh. Wait.
Duh.
Freezin, YoshL, Plop.


Doi.
Don't mind me.

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

I retract my post at #2098.

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

I want to see Plop gone first, followed by YoshL.
I'm the opposite of Freezin in terms of his order because Plop is the only one I feel is 100% wolf at this point and sunfan I feel needs to stick around a bit more to read into his interactions in later phases.

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

It's a reference to this: https://07th-expansion.fandom.com/wiki/Red_Truth

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

lol, you forgot about me because you know that I'm town.

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

You think I'm 100% a wolf but my name doesn't even cross your mind when you're trying to think of who sunfan's scumreads could be? Come on!!!

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

T-force, if you really are actually town here then I'm sorry for the shit I've given you this game. But I promise you you're wrong about me. I'm 100% town. You can't lynch me today or it's over.

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

If Plop and I are somehow both town this game, I officially retire from TWG.
AKA I'm not retiring. Quote this in postgame if I am wrong.

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

So I am ISOing Plop and I’m just gonna write out anything that stands out to me, even if it’s small. Sorry if this is long and/or rambly I’ll try to come up with some sort of conclusion



Reading into Haku’s .lols (who we now know was town), just weird and seems like he’s reaching

Sunfan also brought up that this was a weird thing to bring up

We now know that FG/Subs was town, but I kinda get “don’t wanna take a 50/50 chance of killing my partner” here since there is no further explanation

These just seem like easy reads to make, doesn’t say much and seems like the kind of reads that would be faked

confused/ambivalent about freezi’s thunderdome attempt


Switching tides on YoshL conveniently

This is talking about his FFA vote. During this phase, T-Force also had a few votes until the Ulle wagon started. but Plop stayed parked on FFA (town as we know) for a large portion of the phase and just kinda let the other wagons happen.

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

I am awake, barely.

I wish I could've slept more.

I will be reading through your stuff

I will probably make shit calls

I regret nothing

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

So I know you said "outside of FFA" but you did more than just make a small booboo with FFA. you had your vote on him for a LONG time, keeping it on "just to keep the wagon alive", then convinced others to vote for him and buried a town into the ground

Honestly if you're so proud of yourself that you're tooting your own horn like that after being THAT wrong I think you must be a wolf. Only a wolf would be happy with playing like that???

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

Today's theme:

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

you got this lewdy!! I got hella drunk last night then slept for like 5 hours, woke up and painted my house and now here I am and I think I'm doing a pretty good job!!

WE GOT THIS!

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

Raeko, I'll say the same thing that I said to dap: please try just as hard to read me as a townie as you are trying to read me as a wolf.

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

It doesn't feel like anyone's taking a look at what I've said and done in an attempt to either exonerate me or solidify their wolf read. It's all just interpreting everything in the worst possible light.

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

Maybe I should just get liquored up and make YOLO calls and laugh about it while Dead Chat has their assholes clenched

/SHRUG

But nah, I very likely want Plop dead today, for pretty much the one good reason that I spotted last night

Plop might think it's a load of crock, but I'm going with my gut and what Ii saw

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

If it's of any consolation, I have done this

Nothing makes any sense to me if you're town, because that would implicate T-Force as a wolf who I am slowly starting to see as town

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

And about the FFA error, yeah, of course I regret that. But that's one error versus six correct calls.

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

I guarantee you deadchat is slamming their heads against the wall in frustration right now.

And what's the reason?

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

idk I could see them both being wolf

last wolf probably yoshl, possibly freezi, least likely sunfan

that's my take atm

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

6 correct calls is very good when you know who's green and who isn't :troll:

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

wait six? what six do you mean

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

Well then T-force is a wolf!

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

This is where my brain is at as well, fwiw

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

Again, why would I as a wolf correctly townread so many players when FG brought up to the thread and had it acknowledged by others that one of my wolftells is exactly that?

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

haku, subaru, xiz, ule, shadow, and dap.

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

Dude... Do you know what's wrong with this list?

Come back to me when we agree

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

This is gonna be such an interesting post-game.

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

A big thing nobody's realizing is that I'm literally in the exact same position that Phoenix Wright finds himself in in every single case. It's the pivotal moment, the odds are stacked against him, nobody believes him, and it doesn't seem like there's any hope of proving his client's innocence...but then there's a big dramatic turnaround and everything works out!

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

Usually, at least if my memory serves me, Phoenix Wright isn't a murderous psychopath who kills all my friends! :(

Also you've got no evidence except your word, you are not an attorney, there is no pursuit music, and the only thing you have is the potential ability to laugh and say "I TOLD YA SO" if you actually flip green.

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

I actually want to wolf read T-Force because I know I've been wrong about everything all game long

So if I town read you... maybe this will actually work like some strange ass voodoo magic

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

damn, I'd say if you're town you're more in the position of one of his clients
you're asking for people to believe in you and I don't think you're reaching many people (I'm trying to believe)

Who is to say you're not Matt Engarde, btw?

(spoilers if you haven't played the 2nd game I guess oops)

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

Honestly, if I get mislynched here I'm going to feel more guilty than anything else. I feel like there HAS to be at least ONE way I could defend myself here and get everyone to realize the truth, but I just can't figure it out, and it sucks. The only bright side is that I'll hopefully get some advice that'll help me improve as a player and avoid these situations in the future.

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

I wish I was one of his clients, because I'd love to have someone like Phoenix arguing on my behalf right now...

(don't worry, I've played!)

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

Shadow, if you townread me, you'll be able to hear the cheers from deadchat all the way here in the thread.

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

for me, fatfuck, it'd help most if you could talk about your top wolf, which I understand to be T-Force

I really don't think he is a wolf that posted about being emotional following the Subaru flip, its just not something a lot of wolves do (though I think when Shadow rolls wolf again, we might see it perhaps)

can you talk to me about why you think he's a wolf again?

I didn't much care for the fact that you thought it was suspicious that he didn't remember you as a scumread of mine

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

I have to go cook and then eat supper, be back in a lil bit.

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

I'll respond to this when I'm back, but before that, could you please link me the post where he gets emotional over the subaru flip? I don't remember that.

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

it was the beginning of this post
its really not much, but like
I've kind of decided that its very significant here

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

I'm not much of one for staying humble outwardly, but inwardly, I'd say that I know a lot less about the game than people might expect me to be comfortable admitting

I think rather highly of your game, and I know you don't really peacock around with an elaborate train, but this post seems to jutted out compared to what I think you ought to be thinking of yourself.

Not because (if you're town) you should never be mislynched or something like that because you really seem like you're at a loss, and even when the shit continuously and unrelentingly hit the fan in the Animal Crossing game, you really seemed like you at least knew what to do next.

I think you would agree that you defense has been unconvincing, but why? What's different about this position in this game that's left you at such a loss as town?

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

The only thing I hear in deadchat is Haku screaming in his coffin

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

I imagine Haku thinks in French
I don't know this, but I think its t

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

posted too soon
if you don't use your mouth in death, all of his death-thoughts would be in French
you know any French lewdy?

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

well, anyways, the punchline was going to be "even if you did, Haku's train of thought would make much sense"
but I've decided to give up on it

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

I know very LITTLE French, not enough to hold a conversation though

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

I'm really not that good at solving on average, which is why I took the approach I did this phase. By approaching Plop's play from like 5 different angles, I've hopefully minimized risk, because any singular observation isn't holding up the Jenga Tower by itself.

At the end of the day, the closest we have to "objective truth" is that Plopadop is the one person who most people have ascribed some wolf equity to. I trust FG a lot as a player and she wanted him gone. Raeko wants him gone. Xiz was weirded out by him.

A wagon formed around him yesterday but it almost completely dissolved and shifted to the Subaru, a confirmed town.

Furthermore, Plop has been "too correct" this game, if that makes sense. There are traces of TMI in his posting history. I really stand by my read about his response to Ulli's mechanics post. Most people would naturally have some concern about her post. Plop even acknowledges the reason WHY people would have concern with it. But instead of giving the "natural response"--- not even a scumlean, but showing SOME sort of trepidation--- Plop's townread on her ends up becoming convoluted and unintuitive.

As I said, "oh, this post is too wolfy to come from a wolf, so she has to be town!" is not a thing most players would immediately settle on.

Giving Ulli a town read like this DOES give the wolf team a strategic advantage. It allows the wolves to split their votes and not pile onto a single wagon. It superficially makes Plop look like he's trying to solve the game. But in this one case, the reality is that him bending over backwards to play the role of "town contrarian" does indeed look like contortionism.

----------

It's not just one thing that stands out to me about Plop. I think lynching him here is the mechanically correct play, even based solely on the wishes of the dead. I shot Ulli in the night because that was the mechanically correct play. If I had another vigi shot I would undoubtedly shoot Plop here because of the same feeling.

It's too hard to exclude him from PoE, and he is highly compatible with several other members of the scum pool. He is, in a sense, the lowest common denominator lynch today. And I understand that Freezin and sunfan really, really want each other dead, but I'm not really in the mood to risk it and put the cart before the horse.

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

This is a WIFOM argument, and you know it, so this shouldn't be read into too much.

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

I don't think it's likely that Plop and T-Force are on a team together. Obviously I'm not like, 100% sure, but I would almost always lynch YoshL next, after Plop flips red. After YoshL and Plop both flip red, I think town will have enough concrete evidence to correctly label the third wolf.

Basically, my advice (especially to Lewdy) is "don't get distracted, keep yourself grounded, and keep your eyes on the prize." In this case, if you agree that Plop and YoshL are both wolves, that means lynch them in that order, and don't trip yourself up over the third wolf until you are forced to deal with it.

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

I forgot to read Sunfan's stuff

I don't think I actually need to anymore, because I feel safer in a world where he's town

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

I'm pretty sure your Ulli townread happened before FG ever brought up your scumtell in thread. That's the most damning one FMPOV. It's hard for me to look past.

It's not like, impossible to have the read you did... but a town of your skill level would have at least acknowledged that it was a WIFOM read and that it could go either way. (This is exactly what YoshL pointed out to you later, and you agreed with him, but you still ultimately kept your unambiguous town read on Ulli despite herself.)

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

Yeah I'm kinda zoned in on killing Plop today

it's the only thing that makes any sort of logical sense to me

As DBP pointed out, every single person has some sort of shade on him, he's not really doing much, his conversations with YoshL are very... lacking? I guess lacking is a good term

YoshL is next

this is why I said this

It makes far more sense in my head to kill those two and continue to make an effort to keep DBP alive, so that way when we get to the bridge of having to find the last one we'll be in a better position

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

roundbox, I dunno if you missed it, but I have a vote on Plop from last night.

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

If it helps you sleep tonight, I ISO'd him for like two hours and using his voice in my head to be like "would Greg actually display emotion over X?"

I know it's very difficult to believe, but Greg is not a soulless monster

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

Also, if you're wolfing this game Plop, I'm disappointed that you used the Red Truth to lie about your alignment. If I'm wrong then I'll apologize in post-game.

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

I know that, but to actively not read current posts is just bad.

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

Red truth?

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

I think we're not on the same page here, Trevor

What I was saying is that I don't need to ISO him anymore

I DO have to look at his current shit, aside from we now know that Greg believes Haku screams in French

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

You had a good intuition about it, but I put 8 hours of straight work into laying out the actual case :P

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

Ahh. Definitely not on the same page then.

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

What were you thinking, out of curiousity