Originally Posted by FreezinIce (Post 4483149)

I'm in the process of trying to do an analysis, started it as soon as I got home. Problem is theres so much information to sift through and trying to parse it all is mind numbing. I guess I'll do the cliffnotes version with a healthy dash of gut reads:

inDheart - Agreed with a lot of the points he brought up and thought he came out of the Shado argument looking really good. Town lean

Hakulyte - Posting sporadically but a good chunk of his posts have actually given me pause to reflect. Not someone I want to kill d0.

_Zenith_ - Replaced in, not a day 0 kill target in my mind. His alignment can be decided later when theres more information.

Shadowolfe - Now I wish I had pushed back on you after you backed off me, just to see how you would have reacted.Well would have, could have right? You come across as a bully in a lot of your posts. There's nothing wrong with that inherently but I have a hard time sharing your views and struggle to follow your logic a lot of the time. I dont like that at all.

danceflashrevo - I'm really getting nothing from his content, despite reading it over and over again. I'd need to ISO his posts to possibly get a better read.

Charu - Charu

Gradiant - You're mad at me. I get that. I'll look into why you're blowing up on me at every opportunity later. You're not on the table today for lynching.

DaBackpack - Mixed read in every sense of the word. Alot of things with him I like and alot im not sure of. Null read. Need to revist later and focus on him

Precarious - A heavy contributor who in my mind has refuted every accusation thrown their way. Town

roundbox - A case of someone I see just tuning out white noise and coming back to contribute when it counts.

botchi246 - Nothing at the moment, really been to busy reading all the other stuff to focus on him. He doesnt have alot of stuff to go on at the moment anyways, not compared to everyone else

XelNya - Carried the shitposting way past the point i felt was wise, and another person i'd want to look at again to get a better handle on. Null to Wolf.

Juckter1 - Ugh Running out of time at this point. Hes in the same boat as roundbox but in reverse. posted early but disappeared late. Hes more suspicious in my mind. null to wolf

mellonxcollie - literally 1 min left =x

Shado

Originally Posted by FreezinIce (Post 4492092)

To quote Mordecai, The Duelist:

Let's do this right...

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TWG CLX, Day 0: A Huge Post

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Section 0: Introduction
For every end...a beginning
> [CLX00]

Hello and welcome. In this post, I will try to explain in exhaustive detail my thoughts and opinions on every single player in the game. But before we start, it would behoove me to explain how I perceive the situation of the wolf so that, whether you agree with my logic or disagree, you can see how I arrived at my conclusions and form your own opinions based off them.

The wolf as we know them have 2 concrete aims, one subordinate to the other. To eliminate troublesome humans and power roles is the subordinate goal, which is almost always in service to their primary goal: to live as long as possible, by any means necessary. To this end, there are certain behavioral patterns that I believe can be looked for and exploited, especially this early in the day when you have little to go on, to vastly improve your chances of killing a wolf with the first lynch.

Wolf Tendencies:

For the Most Part, Avoid the Spotlight: There is an exception to every rule. But for the vast majority of cases, I believe it's safe to hedge a d0 lynch on the bottom 60 to 50 percentile of users in regards to postcount. Extremely active wolves exist, however, the tone they set is a precedent that must be maintained throughout the game. Since their very nature is a contradiction and they must lie constantly, eventually for all but the most pathological liars, the facade will slip. I personally favor killing inactives early over high content posters, who can be revisited later on when it will be simple to comb their many posts and find contradictions.

An Aversion to Conflict: This point is only valid early on when butting heads can be somewhat avoided, wolves tend to avoid open conflict with other players, which can escalate into an unpredictable situation. Now, conflict is not a reason to clear someone by itself, but conflict leads to postcount and reads, something that can clear someone if they have nothing to hide...or expose them if they do.

Keep Your Opinions to Yourself: A natural extension of the first tendency, avoiding putting your opinion out where it can be examined and revisited is essential as a wolf. Because these reads are often forced or faked, they can be harmful more often than not so walking the line between seeming to contribute and not contributing is a dance wolves must make carefully.

Finding A Reason To Kill: Analyzing the reasoning behind a kill vote/End of Day vote is important. Because wolves must kill innocents every night (with the exception of bussing), the kill/EoD vote is, in my opinion, vastly more important than the votes made during the day (pressure votes, safety votes, OMGUS, ect) for various reasons. A kill vote gives additional information, especially in a game with cardflips. The voter can be held to accounts for their actions, their posts can be cross-referenced and their train of thought leading to the kill vote scrutinized. Any great leaps of logic will make themselves known in a way that cannot be readily found in regular dayvotes, which carry little consequences. This goes hand in hand with the next tendency:

Playing Dumb Is Hard: As a wolf, your access to information not known to the town is both a blessing and a curse. It can let you coordinate your actions with your allies, and plan elaborate strategies. But more often than not, knowing too much can be a detriment. Someone with more information than the average person will arrive at conclusions and make decisions that seem baffling or illogical to the average person. This can lead to unwanted attention, isolation, and lynching. Pretending not to know more than you do is a constant drain on your mental resources, and one slip could undo everything. Anything that departs from normal behavior should be scrutinized, and their motives and logic should be extensively researched before they are cleared.


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Those are my thoughts on how I perceive wolf behavior, and what I think of when I go about trying to scumhunt. Obviously, these aren't set in stone and many things like the day number, player count, average player activity, and other factors will skew these patterns in different directions, but its a place to start when it comes to understanding a wolf's ultimate goal, and therefore their behavior and strategy that leads to that goal.

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As an aside, I realize that due to the mystery nature of this game, there is a real possibility we are dealing with third parties, be they masons, serial killers, or even other wolf factions. But until they are revealed I feel it is unnecessary to speculate on their existence or commentate on their effects on people's behavior. So for those wondering about the absence of these 3rd parties from my analysis, you have your explanation.

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After this, I had a detailed reads list on every player. Problem is, due to replacements I had to keep editing shit, and eventually about 5 players in I ran out of care. So now you get the quick and dirty version designed so that i can finally get this out before I explode. Not going to include replacements cause fuck.


1) AragakiAyase [CLX01]: Town Read. Posts clear, concise thoughts and reads with easy to follow logic.
2) storn42 [CLX02]: slight Wolf Lean. His posts are surprisingly on the low side, and his 2 attacks are a vote on AA for aggression, after stating that his top scum was dfr (after attacking dfr was vogue i might add)
3) Yoshl [CLX03]: While theres alot of stuff here he says that i dont like he has 3 things going for him 1. He has stuff I agree with as well 2. He has alot of posts and there are people clearly better to kill today than him and 3. He has put himself out there alot and caused alot of problems for himself later on if he ends up being a wolf. So he gets a town lean for today.
4) wineandbread [CLX04] (REPLACEMENT)
5) roundbox [CLX05]: My guess is playing towards some kind of alternate win condition, or just fucking with everyone. Not someone to kill d0
6) MixMasterLar [CLX06]: Doing what passes for normal for him. Attacking whoever and whatever he wants and reading everything at face value for better or worse. Active so gets a null for now.
7) XelNya [CLX07]: Shitposts for a really long time, then drops the act and posts some angry stuff at zenith. Also roundbox is riding his nuts. ok? Null cause i dont want to think about this till tomorrow.
8) Precarious [CLX08]: (REPLACEMENT)
9) Vendetta21 [CLX09] (Literally Nothing)
10) Hakulyte [CLX10] (REPLACEMENT)
11) FreezinIce
12) ShadoWolfe [CLX11] Reasonable and protown playstyle with plenty of reads and questions. Town read, but im interested in who he will end up voting for at EoD and why since he hasnt really gone after anyone.
13) Pazzaz [CLX12] (Literally Nothing)
14) Charu [CLX13]: Pretty much acting like a spectator to the game rather than a player, every now and then he'll drop a breadcrumb of a read or thought, then goes back to observation mode. That can probably carry him through d0 but how much longer?
15) Andy-o24 [CLX14]: New player, playing fast and loose with plenty of reads. Town Lean for now
16) gold stinger [CLX15]: Tiny wolf lean, trending to null. This is mostly because his style is all over the place and dont want to decipher his dick shit stuff atm.
17) botchi246 [CLX16] (Literally Nothing)
18) danceflashrevo [CLX17] Posted a bit, got jumped on for tone, then had to beat his detractors away with a stick. His interactions feel good but he will get a reread come d1 depending on who gets lynched and how they flip. Almost everyone alive has an opinion on him which is a good thing in my estimation. Null to slight town read
19) _Zenith_ [CLX18] Bad stuff here. He's like a worse version of me because AT LEAST I ENDED UP POSTING SOMETHING HEE HEE. Low post count, no interest in the game, and seems to have some sort of wierd fetish for xelnya. Well excepting the last bit those were all things i could be accused of so im not holding this against him TODAY, but in the future if he continues being a liability I will not hesitate to vote him. BLACK HOLE READ
20) Tokzic [CLX19] Entrance to last few posts are very ok. In his last few posts he drops some reads after a bit of pressure, which ends with a puzzling storn vote with no explanation then he pce outs. Wolf Lean which will be upgraded to null if his vote changes or he explains his vote past gut read. Because gutread votes dont really cut it anymore in my book, at least if you want to not smell bad to me.

THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION: WHO DO I WANT TO KILL TODAY?

ANSWER? PROBABLY SOME INACTIVE.

Heres the TL;DR for everyone who doesnt want to go thru the wall of text

TL;DR

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