Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

well, this accounts for that
I think if you're real the only way we lose involves her being one of the two scum so
that accounts for that world

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

here's a controversial opinion
if we lunch this phase (grrrr) and we miss, tps should hide to sack himself so we get a guaranteed draw

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

a draw is a loss in my book

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

wait I just realized a problem

if Tps is fake then waiting until f3 to lynch him doesn't quite work

people would be scared in f5 of the draw happening

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

hmmmmmmmmmmm

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

Idk man whatever I feel like I say I feel like I'm gonna get the flamerino for this but

if there would ever be a team to self-kill one of their own to setup their lowest poster to try and win the game it would be something along the lines of

Xiz- TWG Chaos
Freezin- Chaos Meta
Tps- The man who wolfkilled himself when he was 13, and the man who counterclaimed his own wolfpartner's fakeclaim

idk man

I'm not gonna act on this this phase but its just like

that's a motley crue there

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

if tps sacks himself he cant be the wolf technically

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

i'm not talking about whatever you're talking about

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

why did tps hide behind *me* anyways

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

hello i am pretty sore ow

i have read the first ~50 words of prec's post and am astounded he is not a fan of comparisons to steve prefontaine, that guy was cool

i don't really like limiting options to me or prec but that's probably because me is one of them. i'm probably just gonna do the thing i mentioned earlier and see if i can clear someone in the group

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

Back.

Well the thing about that is...

As far as I can tell, most of the pressure was coming from Blind. What precisely did you want?

As far as other players go, there was this. Which is about as deep a look as anyone has made into another player, absent the continuing discussions between Blind and myself.

Unfortunately, the linked post isn't as useful now, since Funny and Blind can't be scummates--in fact, no one left in the game can be anti-town teammates with each other. I'll be presenting info on both Funny and inD before the day ends, but the fact remains that absolutely nothing I posted about Blind has been refuted. Everyone has continuously town read him--while conveniently staying far away from my case against him. If he's town, refute it.

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

my refutation is that the things that he does are weird

his reasons for his reads make very little sense, and I've said as much to him twice this game

his behavior, and especially his votes (to be honest, the vote part is probably true of a lot of players on FFR) don't always line up with his words

but I don't care that it doesn't

that doesn't inherently make someone wolfy. It makes them a human being, and this is the blindreper1179 that I have played with for years now. This is the guy I stay with when I'm going through Detroit. This is his typical town play.

I am not going through your points one by one but
I hope this will at least serve somewhat of a explanation, if not a refutation

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

it also makes completely zero sense for him to ever be a wolf given the wagon from previous EOD

his behavior, specifically when he claimed Vanilla Town, makes me think he's exactly what he says he is too

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

part 1: post a wolf makes to a wolf about a wolf?

part 2: lol defending freezin while reading him null though. i thought tps' posts from the previous day made it clear enough that we'd have to ask him what is up for actual clarity, and feels like the goalposts shifted here because he did something of analysis in the immediately previous post, which you ignored

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

I see people are generally disinclined to follow the Tps hiding strategy (note that this strategy assumes a mislynch; should we lynch correctly, further consideration of our options is necessary). So let me reiterate why it works--or if it doesn't, please let me know. It's counterintuitive, but that's not a reason to dismiss it.

It's currently either 6:1 or 5:1:1. If it's 6:1, Tps can't actually hide, and there's only one remaining wolf (in that scenario, him). Therefore, if it 6:1, we can mislynch twice, and still be at 2:1 two mornings from now. As a result, a 6:1 scenario isn't (or at least shouldn't be) dangerous to us in a long-term perspective.

If it's 5:1:1, a mislynch takes us to 4:1:1. A lot of things can then happen in the night, but there are three obvious targets for the wolf and SK: the three confirmed or pseudo-confirmed town players. They might try to find each other, but I think we can give them more of a reason to do so.

Let's call the three assumed targets A, B, and C. If wolf targets A, there's only a 1/3 chance SK will do so as well. Admittedly, Tps has the option to hide anyway without telling anyone, but he'd still likely default to the confirmed players, since there would be a 2/3 chance of hiding behind anti-town if he hid elsewhere (assuming he hides at all).

In short, with a mislynch, it seems more probable than not that we're at 2:1:1 tomorrow--which is game over for us. At 2:1:1 there are only two possible timelines--a 1:1:1 draw-loss, or a 2:1 where the remaining antitown can kill with impunity at night, resulting in a 1:1 full loss/antitown victory.

However, if Tps publicly states an intention to hide behind either Sun or Cel (it's important not to say which one), the calculus changes. A 2:1:1 tomorrow is an acceptable if risky outcome for both wolf and SK, because either can still achieve their win condition; they just need to lynch the other. However, things change with the possibility of three town deaths rather than two. If both wolf and SK attack B and C, and hit the 50/50 chance of choosing separate targets, they lose too. We go into tomorrow already at 1:1:1 and the game immediately ends.

Therefore, having Tps hides significantly increases the risk to both wolf and SK of an undesirable outcome. Instead, both would be more incentivized to hunt the other. After all, if the wolf kills the SK, or the SK kills the wolf, then the possibility of the 1:1:1 is averted, and normal win conditions prevail for all remaining players.

There are several downsides here. If one or both attacks A*, we'd still be at 2:1:1 tomorrow--but how is that any worse than the existing possibility. It's also possible under both the No Hide and Hide strategies that both double up on a non-cloaking town player, resulting in 3:1:1, or that one or both kills the other. But in all scenarios other than 2:1:1, we retain a chance to win. Thus, Tps hiding, as far as I can tell, would counterintuitively increase our chances of winning the game.

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

2-1-1 is still a chance to win, its just not a very good one.
Town sleeps and hopes the scum kill one another.

I am in favor of Tps hiding regardless of the result but ultimately it appears that he is not so that discussion doesn't seem too important unless you're trying to convince him that he should.

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

to be honest, I don't think the SK is any more or less incentivized to go after a person because they know the hider is about

the wolf, maybe is, but its a very minor point

I love the outside-the-boxness of the idea though
that's the kind of stuff I love to read/think about

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

I think the biggest problem here is that no one will balk at blowing the game up and forcing a draw. Its just what I figure most people on FFR would do.

"You play to win the game" after all, and if we give them reason to do a specific thing, then they're going to do it most of the time because its their best play. If they don't win as a result of making their best play, I don't think they feel bad that they drew.

That's my take, at least.

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

Ooh, that is interesting! That would force both wolf and SK into a very uncomfortable position. In 2-1-1, it's highly likely that 1 of the 2 town would be confirmed, and one wouldn't--and thus neither wolf nor SK could be absolutely sure which player is which. Since both would have a killing power, they'd have to hope they've correctly identified the other, and haven't been identified themselves. There's certainly a chance that this results in a 2:0 town win, as well as a 1:1:1 and multiple different 1:1 scenarios. However, all of those are losses save the 2:0.

I still would push for the Hide strategy, since the odds still seem to be better, but this is absolutely a better approach to the worst case scenario.

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

Did prec just sheep me