Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

yeah most like scum rn for me are haku and bolth after dbp

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

Great, now I have to entertain DBP/ShadoWolfe/leetic.

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

Prob not revisiting Duskfall until game is over because the guy seems to actually be upset by my play.

That helps clear FFA a bit too.

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

at this point I'm convinced it's just this running gag where leetic keeps voting me because they think I'll eventually be a wolf

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

Would you be surprised if MML Godfather or you're pretty sure that's town almost every time ?

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

i am not upset but i will take the townread ty

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

it would be a more favorable conclusion for MML than them actually being this bullheaded

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

I've seen MML both wolf and town read me at same time earlier in the game as if he didn't want to commit there because it sounded like a minefield.

Considering the Xiz case and how his game unfolded, I wonder if he's just tunnelling stuff on purpose.

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

I'm willing to take the 0.06% chance I'm wrong

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

I have trouble to take your 0.06% chance thing seriously.

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

want to put something more tangible on these odds?

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

0.06% chance is a reasonable amount when it comes to the odds of the setup.

It's not like a setup has 99.4% chance to appear and it's between those two.

It's some big number splitted between a ton of scenarios.

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

The activity makes me sad for a game that's 2 hours from EoD.

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

leetic didnt do maths right btw given the info we know, assuming leetics claim is also correct the odds of there being exactly 3 Cs in the setup is actually

~5.25 percent

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

The real joke is why you guys keep asking me to do setup things.

If anything, I'm usually the one that somehow get things wrong.

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

wait i also did my maths wrong i think its like 1 percent

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

First of all, you're doing the math wrong, it's a 99.94% chance Mikey is lying.

Moreover, the only evidence Mikey has really brought up against DBP is his cop check. Mathematically speaking, it is much easier to believe DBP.

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

How are you doing it? For me it's (1/10)^3*(9/10)*4=about 0.00065

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

You were quicker than me, but you're wrong too.

The binomial probability of rolling 3 Cs out of 7, where the chance of each C is 1/10, is roughly 2.296%

I cheated tho I used a calculator
https://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial.aspx

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

you arent accounting for the fact that

- we already know two of the letters so we are rolling for 2 things in a subset of 5

-we arent selecting in a set number, you are calculating the odds of a setup being rolled in an exact order, not being rolled at all