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-   -   TWG 194 - Game Thread (http://www.flashflashrevolution.com/vbz/showthread.php?t=151853)

leetic 05-1-2020 01:59 PM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 
That would be like flipping 7 coins and 6 roll heads anyway. Not a very likely scenario

Hakulyte 05-1-2020 02:11 PM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by leetic (Post 4728724)
That would be BBCCCV (only if DBP is lying and Mikey isn't), which has an SK unless there is another role we don't know about

Well, a wolf roleblocker could have blocked a roleblocker in theory.

Hakulyte 05-1-2020 02:17 PM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hakulyte (Post 4728726)
Well, a wolf roleblocker could have blocked a roleblocker in theory.

Nevermind this.

leetic 05-1-2020 03:13 PM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 
I have a feeling that if anyone else wanted to claim, they would have done so by now.

MixMasterLar 05-1-2020 03:21 PM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 
Dusk please explain that, if I'm partners with FFA and wanted to bus him, I chose this clusterfuck instead of just just following DBP's claim?

These tinfoils where I'm being paired with either of them really sell my game short more then I ever have.....

flashflash account 05-1-2020 03:31 PM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 
my government mandated computer arrived today woo

Duskfall 05-1-2020 03:32 PM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar (Post 4728731)
Dusk please explain that, if I'm partners with FFA and wanted to bus him, I chose this clusterfuck instead of just just following DBP's claim?

These tinfoils where I'm being paired with either of them really sell my game short more then I ever have.....

Mikey scum world: you didn't realise dbp was roleblocker

Dbp scum world: you are literally outted here if Mikey flips town I don't think i need to explain that

I do think Mikey is the scum though

flashflash account 05-1-2020 03:32 PM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by leetic (Post 4728715)
A scum blocker would've had to target Xiz

given dbp is claiming no block on d1 that's the probability

Duskfall 05-1-2020 03:32 PM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by flashflash account (Post 4728732)
my government mandated computer arrived today woo

The government bought you a computer wtf lucky is it good?

flashflash account 05-1-2020 03:34 PM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Duskfall (Post 4728735)
The government bought you a computer wtf lucky is it good?

I can run league on medium high at 80 fps capped, haven't pushed the specs further than that yet

it go vroom vroom compared to my old one, that's for sure

Makilaz 05-1-2020 04:07 PM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 
Vote Count:
5/1 @ 19:00

00:59 = GOOD
00:00 = BAD


==============

flashflash account [3]
DaBackpack, MixMasterLar, leetic

DaBackpack [2]
flashflash account, Duskfall

jessiebessie [1]
ShadoWolfe

Duskfall [1]
Bolth mannn

ShadoWolfe 05-1-2020 04:24 PM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 
If FFA flips red:
DBP gets cleared
MML read is unimpacted / not cleared because of the possibility of a wolf team trying to salvage a bad FFA play by having MML claim. In terms of overall outcome for an FFA!wolf team, he's caught regardless of whether he or DBP gets lynched first, so having a partner bus to gain fakeclaim believability is net positive once they're in the fake redcheck thunder dome situation they'd have been in. A red flip wouldn't make him look worse, but it wouldn't make him look better imo.


If FFA flips blue:
DBP is lock wolf
MML gains claim believability because, in a DBP/MML wolfteam, wolf!MML never places himself in the hotseat by fake claiming a forgotten block to save DBP for only one phase and draws all the SUS when he was in strong standing before. DBP/MML are never partners imo, so a blue flip from FFA almost locks MML as a roleblocker who had gotten blocked.

ShadoWolfe 05-1-2020 04:27 PM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Duskfall (Post 4728733)



Dbp scum world: you are literally outted here if Mikey flips town I don't think i need to explain that

Actually, please do explain that. I came to the opposite conclusion so your thoughts in more detail would be nice

jessiebessie 05-1-2020 04:42 PM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by ShadoWolfe (Post 4728696)
I think I follow MML on this

He's literally stayed the only solid read I've had from the beginning, and I don't think there's any reason to ever out himself to save a DBP!partner if he's wolf

The only possible situation he'd ever be wolf in is if he's exactly FFA's partner and they came up with some insane plot to clear MML forever thru FFA's lynch after reading some of the earlier similar conjecture that FFA/DBP were a team trying to do the same

but that is such a leap given that a setup where they're both wolves can likely contain a serial killer, and that the serial killer would probably kill MML. Plus, MML's just been towny enough to where I won't go there.

MML's soft also looked good that he targeted specifically FFA.

if FFA flips red, I think it clears DBP as well, so we'd be left with two nearly confirmed town PRs

It's funny that the claimed setup went from being CCC (2.296% chance of rolling) to a BBB (2.296% chance of rolling)

Can you explain your solid town read on mml a little more?

jessiebessie 05-1-2020 04:45 PM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Duskfall (Post 4728697)
I am officially tinfoiling leetic mafia considering he keeps pushing counter wagons to dbp

This is probably me tinfoiling to the extreme, but scum leetic could explain why wolves killed his green check instead of him...

ShadoWolfe 05-1-2020 04:46 PM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 
unvote

Quote:

Originally Posted by jessiebessie (Post 4728686)
but if you are wolfing with dbp, then backing up his claim would potentially save you both-- a move wolves this close to victory would probably take the risk to do

@Jessie if MML and DBP are partners, then MML claiming to back up DBP gets FFA lynched, sure, but doesn't that then set the course of the next phase to get DBP lynched anyway and puts MML at high risk of a subsequent lynch as well?

Assume for a moment FFA flips town today. That locks DBP as a wolf. What do you think that tells you about MML?

flashflash account 05-1-2020 04:52 PM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 
my main problem with MML is their behavior not matching their claims
it doesn't make sense to me that MML "forgets" to have roleblocked me, especially when they suggested that they thought they might have blocked leetic instead, who has openly claimed a 1x check anyway
MML's coming back into the thread looks very coordinated with DBP, especially given how they interact with each other after that
if MML is town I think dbp claiming roleblocker should actually make them more suspicious of DBP since the setup can't have 2 town roleblockers
combine that with the massive tonal gap of pre-claim MML with post-claim MML and you have a faker

leetic 05-1-2020 04:54 PM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 
If anyone blocked Xiz or MML N1, claim now.

jessiebessie 05-1-2020 04:54 PM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by ShadoWolfe (Post 4728745)
unvote

@Jessie if MML and DBP are partners, then MML claiming to back up DBP gets FFA lynched, sure, but doesn't that then set the course of the next phase to get DBP lynched anyway and puts MML at high risk of a subsequent lynch as well?

Assume for a moment FFA flips town today. That locks DBP as a wolf. What do you think that tells you about MML?

Yeah, I guess I got too focused on the Xiz wagon from the previous phase, which paired DBP and MML in my mind. It would be pretty short-sighted for wolf mml to back DBP in this situation, but I donít think itís impossible. If FFA flips town, DBP is def a wolf, but I also think wolf MML could find a way to spin the scenario to save himself.

flashflash account 05-1-2020 04:57 PM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 
basically, dbp knows I can't have a red check on them because they roleblocked me night 2, unless they had been roleblocked
so, dbp needs a partner to also claim to have roleblocked me night 1, since MML hypoblocked me night 1, they used MML to try bolstering the claim believability and circumventing the "dbp was roleblocked" scenario
they know their best shot at surviving is flipping me today and try to argue that dbp wasn't actually checked, so the only way to do that is to double claim and then try to win the counterclaims in lylo. Fortunately they played it badly enough where they look suspicious anyway, so massclaim tomorrow should lead you guys to lynch them anyway. Good luck


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