Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

Then do you think its haku?

Idt that both block claims and targets are all town tbh

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

If I town read Dusk then this game is a no kill last night which im probably going to fail to convince everyone of being true until postgame happens.

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

What scum do you think exists in a no kill and a blocked world?

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

In the world where you're town it's something like Jessie/Shado/(MML or DBP)

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

How likely are you to vote outside me now?

Considering you were hard townreading me up to earlier today

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

I really doubt I'll have any say on who to vote.

Jessie feels like the ideal vote.

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

Checking in for a bit while I make something to eat, still working on the final but I'm about 3/5 done so there's that. Anyway, I am not liking the way Haku is acting right now, it looks like he's going with the flow instead of providing any clear direction.

Haku: "MML isn't scum"
leetic: *posts a hypothetical scum team containing MML*
Haku: "Maybe you're right"

Haku: Dusk is the best lynch
Dusk: *shows up*
Haku: Maybe Dusk is town

Haku is not confronting anybody and it more seems like scum trying to navigate this phase than a townie worried about making the wrong choice.

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

The one problem is why scum would select Haku to perform the kill, since he was under a good amount of scrutiny at the end of D3. I can see why they'd choose Haku over jessie, but they had to have a third person that was less risky to try and perform the kill...

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

Feels like one of these games where the more I post, the more I get scum read.

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

I just don't want to pick a fight with a potential townie and ruin it.

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

Perhaps the 3rd one is their roleblocker?

The more I watch this phase roll out the more I can see a possibility where both dusk and haku are scum together. Still pretty set with who I want to vote for though, I’m not sure a lot could happen that would change my mind at this point

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

Scum can kill and roleblock at the same time with the same person

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

What happens if scum roleblocker who performs nk gets blocked by town?

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

You should at least interrogate people, acquiescing to them accomplishes nothing.

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

Would get blocked from doing anything

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

Then I could definitely see them choosing someone else to make the kill tbh

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

Well, working on my final again, so see ya in a couple hours

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

Haku over DBP alway
But probably not Haku
Why not Jessie?

I disagree

It seems only I had any suspicions. It really seemed like Haku wasn't really being read scum at EoD. Unless you or Shado are his partners he's probably the best to attempt the action.

My two cents, probably voting the other two over him

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

Alright, done my calc final! Still have to upload it but the hardest part's over.

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

If you truly think that DBP is town, how do you explain the fact that he wasn't hammered yesterday despite Haku, Bolth, and jessie all having a very clear opportunity to do so?

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

What was with this post?

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

It's really as simple as "not enough people were online".

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

No it's not. Bolth, jessie, and you all posted after MML brought the wagon to four, and it was at four for a good amount of time.

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

Do you think FFA was into something when he said the above ?

Some logic along the lines of "the rolelockers didn't consider that they could have been roleblocked by the wolf roleblocker" (?)

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

The claims at that point were leetic cop, Xiz vig, and FG green checked. Guess what these three people have in common.

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

As that post is about a world where DBP and MML are both scum, it's nonsense.

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

btw, that post was probably the best explanation as to why FFA would have been town.

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

I can safely say that MML and Bolth aren't W/W.

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

Well, unless Jessie claims a 1-shot role, one of the blockers at least has to be real.

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

Yeah, nevermind on that.

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

Man how absurd that game would be if both roleblockers are fake and also the only 2 wolves + SK hiding somewhere else, but holstering the entire game.

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

That would also mean this phase is not mylo.

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

I mean, MML/DBP definitely have a team dynamic going on here.

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

That would also explain why DBP was looking for a SK in Xiz at the beginning of the game.

(?)

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

I don't want to believe FFA just suicided for free here.

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

Why didn't the SK kill anybody in that situation?

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

Well, it's hard to win as a SK if everyone knows you're in the game.

If it's only wolves, you can just slowly help town get rid of them.

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

Yeah, I don't think so.

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

Well, the most counterintuitive thing to do this phase would be to lynch between DBP/MML.

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

Then why are you entertaining a world in which they are both scum?

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

I just think it's a good high risk/reward play because it's entertaining town to lynch within the town pool that would contain 0 wolf in this case.

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

The only issue with that is that wolves would lose the game after because it would lock the setup as B or BBB being fake.

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

MML claimed to roleblock Bolth N2. Since you can't roleblock the same person twice in a row, Bolth could just have the roleblocker block DBP and submit the kill himself in that scenario. Thus, I think Bolth is town here.

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

I mean, not submitting the action yourself doesn't make you town.

I'm kinda confused at how you twist the logic here.

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

It would have been extremely suboptimal for Bolth to not submit the kill in that scenario

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

If Bolth was Godfather, he wouldn't have known he got roleblocked I think, but 2/3 times he would have known I think.

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

MML flat out claimed the roleblock D3. Going into N3, he would have known that MML couldn't block him again and by blocking DBP and submitting the kill himself, the kill is guaranteed to go through.

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

I don't really have a read on Jessie and I feel like no one is townreading them which makes them less likely to be partners with anyone

It rather vote the people with more content that I can get s more solid read on than a null

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

I slept through the majority of today, let me see what happened

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

This is why I targeted Dusk last night--- his vote last phase stood out the most on my wagon

for the latter, this is a site-wide thing I think, but hammering and insta-lynching in the middle of the phase is universally scumread; even if there's a cleared cop with a redcheck, it looks bad to instantly lynch the redcheck because it looks like wolves desperate to stop townies from talking and strategizing

similarly, trying to be hasty and get build lynch momentum for the sake of expediency, so that town doesn't have an opportunity to "come to its senses" or something, is a pretty wide scumread here, idk on your site

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

IMO Dusk's name never came up in a way where anybody -had- to defend him

today is really the first time he's been in the spotlight, and if dusk/haku are W/T, the wolf resistance would manifest as pushing for Haku, or vice versa; otherwise doubting the PR claims, stuff like no-kill, or offering lynches outside the roleblocks, while valid lines of thought, give defensive wolves room to hide

I kinda think in this scenario it's more fruitful to force Haku and Dusk to go against each other instead of potentially giving the wolves an "out" with no-kill, or other lynch targets

we might learn that dusk/haku feel T/T which lends credence to a no-kill world, but IMO we don't cross that bridge until we're more comfortable entertaining that

also saying this to coalesce our efforts and not fall victim to tinfoiling since while there are a few possibilities here, it's important to really hone in on the two most likely scenarios first

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

refer to above

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

we can discuss this more if it comes up but hammers just don't happen here

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

no, it means that you


literally


have zero thread presence and your town reads are just because of tone

I can't for the life of me guess what ANY of your reads were this entire game, I don't know where you voted (except for me obv), and even now you're shitting around with --just enough-- to waste everyone's time but not actually do anything constructive

I'm like, 90% sure I've got you now

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

yeah definitely, so you can lynch a blue now and then save Haku for tomorrow (if that happens)

you're stirring shit just to give yourself options and cause chaos/tinfoiling

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

do you actually think Dusk and I are both scum right now? when did you magically come around on Dusk???

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

this is the safest possible response you could have given

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

there's a difference between low-effort and 0 effort

"Don't read me, read my alignment" how do you suggest we do that? You give us nothing to work with and I roleblocked you and no nightkill went off. That's the only way to read your slot. Do you have anything that's gonna actually change our minds?

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

I seriously can't fathom that a townie would say this, especially after playing with you in the mafia champions game

the dead town players' reads on you IIRC is ----nothing---- and surprise! if you put a gun to my head D1/D2 and forced me to correctly guess if you were town or not, I'd say "town" because uh there's a 10/13 chance of you randing town vs. 3/13 or w/e of you rolling antitown.

what the fuck are you on? go through the dead ppl's actual reads on you and find me one that you think is actually substantial and still valid today. (p.s. tone-reads/posting-style doesn't count, I gave you a freepass earlier for that too)

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

this is mylo dude. none of us have super-confident reads but we don't hide our actual opinions behind other players'. reading the will of the dead is a good idea in general but it looks like ALL YOU HAVE is the reads of dead people. how much have you been following the game? even fucking jessiebessie has been better at this than you and she's barely been here. at least her reads feel like they've come from her own brain.

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

how many scrutiny was Haku actually under last phase?

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

"I don't think you're town. But please don't vote me this phase"

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

bro I wasn't looking for a serial killer, I accused XIZ of looking for a serial killer

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

Well, I was mostly thinking out loud even if like 75% of it was probably nonsense if you take 5 seconds and think about it.

I bet I correct myself in the later posts too.

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

I'm stream-of-consciousness as I'm catching up it's fine

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

I highly doubt MML is lying his role, I think leetic is town despite having a lot of "what-if" posts

Haku feels like he's just confused and going tinfoil mode, which is standard for town Haku; in one lens it might look like he's freezing up and doesn't know what to do to defend himself but given the two options I'm inclined to think he's just overthinking and not able to confidently coalesce on any one worldview. It would be good to force him to behave coherently and at least get something committal from him, especially as time passes, so that Haku can be held actually accountable for something

Dusk has been a transient presence this game and his performance this phase has been underwhelming. I hesitate to think too much about "who would the wolves feel most comfortable with to send in the nightkill?", even though Dusk does potentially fit that bill because of a lack of attention. Duskfall comes from a really bad D3 performance, but he also wasn't really on anybody's radars.= The ideal selection for the nightkill if we decide to go down that route. So TL;DR I find it highly plausible that Duskfall WOULD be considered safe, especially if the wolves knew they could roleblock 1/2 roleblockers. It's impossible to prove anything obviously but I want to establish that-- yes, it is highly likely that Duskfall would be trusted to send in the NK if necessary. (That doesn't mean he DID; I'm responding to claims that "he couldn't possibly have.")

All of his main reads come from other players. He justifies his entire general presence in the game-- his "towniness", the "quality of his reads"-- entirely in terms of dead players. He's gaslighting other players about his towniness ("other dead players thought I was town. You all suck if you don't see that too!"). Haku looks better than Dusk when we look at the game as a whole, and Dusk's only real "way out" is to assert the "no kill" theory so that he can wiggle his way out and maybe take advantage of town's uncertainty and chaos to push some bullshit wagon.

So I'm not willing to give him that wiggle room, at least so easily. Instead of relying on the graciousness of everyone's rabid imaginations, you need to unambiguously act of your own accord and ----convince us---- that you are actually town, instead of weaseling out by saying "hmm I think a no kill is what we should be looking at instead of me directly!"

I intend to vote for Duskfall if things don't radically change in the next 12 hours or so.

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

One other thing. "No kill" and "Duskfall are wolves" are not mutually exclusive worlds. There is this convenient idea permeating the thread that even if we believe that a no kill happened, Duskfall is not worthy of scrutiny and that we should direct our attention to other players.

No, Duskfall CAN be a wolf AND not have sent in the wolfkill. For all we know Dusk/Haku are both wolves and neither of them sent in a kill. But the point to hammer home is

Dusk's alignment should not depend exclusively on any of these worlds

The only mechanical information we have about his alignment is that he was blocked and no kills happened. This adds scum equity to him.

If wolves truly did no-kill that should not make you slingshot your read and give him town cred. Please please please look at his slot and properly evaluate him.

When I was catching up it felt like somebody had laid a trap down. The narrative of a no-kill is still possible but Duskfall himself took advantage of that possibility to create the false dichotomy above. I want to stop this trap from firing before we all enter confirmation bias mode.

@Haku, what do you ACTUALLY THINK is happening right now? Put the bullshit aside, take off your tinfoil hat. You are not on the spot. Give us your honest-to-god thoughts

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

I'm not quite sure exactly what was FFA's plan in details here, but it seems like he had a strong interest in making claims roll and that it would lead to a wolf.
This turn of event feels like FFA might have caught a wolf MML here because of how specific and convenient was the roleblock on FFA. (or very unlucky coincidence #IForgot)
I feel like FFA was barking at the wrong tree, but had the right idea.

Duskfall/MML are probably the most confident wolf reads I would give here.

The thing is that I could be wrong about MML in the world where we know that the entire wolf team is in the "VT pool".

I had a lot of talking about a potential MML/DBP team, but that world leads to the game having a SK which seems to be strangely incompatible with what's going on overall.

Honestly, I have a hard time town reading MML over DBP based on game progression and how things unfolded.

MML doesn't even look that bad either. It's just the claim that felt very out of place.

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

I think the highest % successful play here is to trust the roleblock on Duskfall (even if it's a no kill scenario).

Also, revisit MML if the game is not over.

I'm a bit worried about Jessie.
I have to say that I don't like how her posts are mostly about objective stuff.
Don't like X because didn't do enough or not enough by the book etc. and then kind of back away.
She was here, but it feels dodge-y kind of like Duskfall to me.

Bolth had a very similar game to me so, I tend to believe he feels organic enough for what the game gave him. I tend to town read him even if I'm not completely sure why. It's more like we keep reacting the same way to the same things.

ShadoWolfe is being ShadoWolfe I guess. I have no reason to scum read here, but paranoia.

Pretty much praying game is as simple as Duskfall/MML/Jessie.

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

That being said, I wanted to priorize a VT pool player.

Duskfall has mechanic baggage supporting the block. (well, at least from my perspective)
Jessie is mostly the UTR card being played a little too much.

MML feels too convenient for what the FFA vs DBP gave me and I think the point of him claiming here was to fit under the 1 PR/2 VTs pool to make solving more difficult.

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

Basically, MML would be a reverse pocket and the real person being pocketed here was DBP.

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

I went there, but I got to the conclusion that the only way a no-kill world would make sense is if both you and MML are wolves.

That world would lead to VCTTTTT and there's no sign of a SK.

That dimension kinds of become bogus because of it.

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

It's either that of MML took a gamble that your roleblock would fail.

The thing is that if MML and you are W/T then why in the world he doesn't just RB + NK you ?

It's sub optimal and nonsensical to me. I understand it can happen, but I don't want to believe it.

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

It leads me back to this question ^

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

This may be noteworthy.

The idea would be that wolves may have taken a risk by stacking the night actions on 1 player and it ended up very poorly.

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

tl;dr: I think Duskfall is exactly the Wolf Roleblocker.

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

[cricket noises]

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

I still have a very hard time understanding how this team makes sense with all the PR actions in this game.

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

It's also not unthinkable to believe that a wolf could have created a fake alibi with the roleblocker role.
I just find DBP's neural network thing more logical than "I forgot".

If I tinfoil hard enough, I could town read MML's claim over making little sense as a wolf.
I could say that the neural network thing could have been a plan for wolf DBP to setup an alibi for later on "just in case".

If DBP is fake then Duskfall would become a victim in that world and most likely be a town player.
You'd have a no kill scenario here for baiting a NK on Duskfall/X.

tl;dr: This would create a Duskfall/DBP thunderdome or a Haku/Duskfall thunderdome if both DBP/MML are town.
So, really, it's just a matter of who you town read the most, why, what do you think makes sense here and what do you think has the best odds of being right.

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

Hey guys, I’m on for a few more hours tonight, but I don’t think I’m going to be able to make EoD tomorrow.. I’ll be up 2 hours before EoD but I have a pretty hectic morning so I’ll try to skim/catch up but it really depends how much activity there has been and if I have the time

Should I cast my vote now? I don’t want to put town in a mechanically worse position by voting early but nothing I’ve read today has changed my mind, only really strengthened it