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-   -   TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD (http://www.flashflashrevolution.com/vbz/showthread.php?t=143935)

Hakulyte 02-29-2016 12:59 PM

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by fontisian (Post 4412472)
Xiz is trying to solve the game. The others are not.

I agree with this and I'm willing to throw Xiz in the Town pile. Yay for you Xiz.

fontisian 02-29-2016 01:06 PM

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Red Blaster (Post 4412473)
The mafia would've known it was fabricated from the start, so any reaction fishing from that point kinda becomes moot given they would react accordingly with the knowledge that you were full of it. So you saying "And anyone who actually believed it can't be mafia" means next to nothing when the only person who expressed general disbelief of it was the person you were faking the check on.

Backpack's reaction for example was a mixture of belief and skepticism:

I'm not saying anyone who pretended to believe it, I'm saying anyone who actually believed.

For example, I believe that Xiz believed it. Therefore, Xiz is town. I also believe that DBP was hedging his bets on the claim, and it therefore more likely mafia.

In short, this is a tool that /can/ be used to figure out alignments.

j-rodd123 02-29-2016 01:17 PM

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 
yea the lynch pool is AA/DBP/xiz/fonti/storn

from what ive seen so far i'd clear xiz the most out of them, and i have liked fonti's posts today. if it's true that there was no wolf kill when haku targetted V then fonti is polarized to town or SK

i need to clear someone out of AA/DBP/storn then, is there any reason why i should be reading any of you 3 town?

Hakulyte 02-29-2016 01:18 PM

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 
I don't think V can be Mafia for a very simple reason.

The only N1 scenario where Mafia doesn't target Vendetta is the one where they hit the bulletproof vest.

If they hit the bulletproof vest, there's no reason for them to not murder the SK next night and throw him/her out of the game.

Therefore according to me, Mafia has definitely target V N1.

If Mafia target V N1, it means that V cannot be Mafia.

I'm fairly convinced that V is the SK tho and that Mafia felt unsecure about continuing to try to lynch V after I claimed that I protected him.

Everything so far is pointing me into that direction. Fontisian's play just raised that suspicion even more to the point that I can't ignore her anymore.

I also have a very hard time conceiving the existence of a world where you're Vanilla Town after fake claiming Cop and soft-claiming SK as a joke.

I also think the Mafia is in a similar situation with the Zenith ragequit sinking ship. #hi AA

The only uncertain left would be storn42 for me, but I think he's doing his typical scum-looking Town play and he feels fairly clear to me to not bother.

If there's 2 or more Mafia alive tho, this game is not going to end well lol.

Sadly, since SK can't claim, I feel forced to lynch that person first in what a normal game would have been like "a good moment to make some pact and do tactical stuff together."

Therefore, because of the rules, I'm sticking to fontisian and I'll have to pray that there's only 1 Mafia left in the game.

*shrugs*

j-rodd123 02-29-2016 01:21 PM

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 
i like that post haku, and i guess i agree. fonti's posts have seemed more SK than not today, with a weird fixation around a joke there. im not in the flow of the thread at all so im not sure how many wolves would be left at this point. you think fonti is the most worthwhile lynch then?

Hakulyte 02-29-2016 01:22 PM

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 
DBP is clear to me because he cleared himself from everything I ever builded up against him. Charu was convinced he was Town and just got killed by both SK and Mafia. It's like they don't want us to completely trust DBP. He provided a lot of posts and content, his entire existence has been so good overall that I cannot picture him not being Town.

j-rodd123 02-29-2016 01:23 PM

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 
i made the point earlier that i can't see DBP leading the thread in posts as a wolf. simply a quantity over quality read, and im willing to sponge you on that for now

j-rodd123 02-29-2016 01:23 PM

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 
so i guess it's AA/fonti/storn gg?

fontisian 02-29-2016 01:24 PM

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hakulyte (Post 4412477)
I don't think V can be Mafia for a very simple reason.

The only N1 scenario where Mafia doesn't target Vendetta is the one where they hit the bulletproof vest.

If they hit the bulletproof vest, there's no reason for them to not murder the SK next night and throw him/her out of the game.

Therefore according to me, Mafia has definitely target V N1.

If Mafia target V N1, it means that V cannot be Mafia.

I'm fairly convinced that V is the SK tho and that Mafia felt unsecure about continuing to try to lynch V after I claimed that I protected him.

Everything so far is pointing me into that direction. Fontisian's play just raised that suspicion even more to the point that I can't ignore her anymore.

I also have a very hard time conceiving the existence of a world where you're Vanilla Town after fake claiming Cop and soft-claiming SK as a joke.

I also think the Mafia is in a similar situation with the Zenith ragequit sinking ship. #hi AA
P'
The only uncertain left would be storn42 for me, but I think he's doing his typical scum-looking Town play and he feels fairly clear to me to not bother.

If there's 2 or more Mafia alive tho, this game is not going to end well lol.

Sadly, since SK can't claim, I feel forced to lynch that person first in what a normal game would have been like "a good moment to make some pact and do tactical stuff together."

Therefore, because of the rules, I'm sticking to fontisian and I'll have to pray that there's only 1 Mafia left in the game.

*shrugs*

Haku, please. I did not joke about being SK. I made an offhand comment about how the SK can't claim /because/ it was relevant to DBs argument.

@jrrodd: I think the SK thing is entirely irrelevant. I'm only continuing to talk about because people keep bringing it up for some unfathomable reason.

I am not the SK. I would have never done the cop claim as the SK. I would have never shot Charu as the SK. I am VT.

j-rodd123 02-29-2016 01:25 PM

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 
well if it helps you at all im usually very terrible at SK hunting, haku's reasoning makes sense is all and at this point it's pretty much POE. i can read zenith/AA i guess and see if i find anything that leans me in either direction

fontisian 02-29-2016 01:28 PM

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 
It's only poe if we assume you, Xiz and DBP are town, j-rodd. I'm very uncomfortable with the DBP read.

I would be willing to lynch Storn today instead, or possibly AA if he doesn't get back to me. But I think clearing DBP will lose the game.

DaBackpack 02-29-2016 01:29 PM

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by fontisian (Post 4412475)
I'm not saying anyone who pretended to believe it, I'm saying anyone who actually believed.

For example, I believe that Xiz believed it. Therefore, Xiz is town. I also believe that DBP was hedging his bets on the claim, and it therefore more likely mafia.

In short, this is a tool that /can/ be used to figure out alignments.

I'll get into more detail when I'm out of work, but this doesn't make sense

imagine hypothetically that I'm a wolf or SK and you fakeclaimed AA as a wolf

why on earth would I not latch on to that? why would I actively try to dismantle your argument?

within this mindset the only situation that makes sense is that AA and I are partners together, which I guess would make sense for me to "hedge my bets", but that's about it

AragakiAyase 02-29-2016 01:29 PM

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hakulyte (Post 4412457)
Okay.

fontisian - SK
AA - Mafia

Thanks for clarifying.

lol those reads

Quote:

Originally Posted by fontisian (Post 4412460)
Let's say you're town for a moment. Mafia would have known the claim was fake and would have been trying to figure out what I was doing, yeah? And anyone who actually believed it can't be mafia. With that in mind, what do you think of the way each person reacted?

I disagree that anyone who believed it can't be mafia, if mafia see a town (or SK) red checking someone they know isn't one of them that's a great situation for them. I think DBP's reaction was the most towny because while he seemed inclined to believe you he had reservations about the claim that lined up with my reason for the claim being fake (potential mylo, convenience, etc.). storn's reaction post-claim is garbage, comes in throws shade on you and me without anything besides a gut-read and parks his vote on you.

red blaster is confirmed but his reaction was pretty good. he's been wanting me dead and his excitement at being able to nail me down based off of a red check was very towny.

xiz bought the claim and found V's posts that lined up with the checks that you outed but I don't like how even though I said over and over that it was breadcrumbing he automatically went with "oh that's legit softing"

DaBackpack 02-29-2016 01:30 PM

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 
I'm pretty convinced AA is town now

AragakiAyase 02-29-2016 01:30 PM

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by fontisian (Post 4412472)
Xiz is trying to solve the game. The others are not.

I'm not trying to solve the game?

DaBackpack 02-29-2016 01:30 PM

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 
I thought about the Charu thing some more

AragakiAyase 02-29-2016 01:31 PM

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by j-rodd123 (Post 4412476)
yea the lynch pool is AA/DBP/xiz/fonti/storn

from what ive seen so far i'd clear xiz the most out of them, and i have liked fonti's posts today. if it's true that there was no wolf kill when haku targetted V then fonti is polarized to town or SK

i need to clear someone out of AA/DBP/storn then, is there any reason why i should be reading any of you 3 town?

it would be self meta and I'm not going to use that

you can look at my reaction to the fake check and decide for yourself

Hakulyte 02-29-2016 01:31 PM

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 
If AA is town, storn42 is the Mafia.

AragakiAyase 02-29-2016 01:31 PM

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by AragakiAyase (Post 4412491)
it would be self meta and I'm not going to use that

you can look at my reaction to the fake check and decide for yourself

and if you're feeling up to it you can read my other posts too

j-rodd123 02-29-2016 01:33 PM

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
 
well to be devil's advocate on why would a wolf question a claim they know is false in that position, is that when it comes down to it, wolves like to be correct


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