14th Official Tournament Predictions Thread
Hey all, thought it's tradition to at least have one of these bad boys going for this OT :)
For those who aren't aware, I wrote a quick Python script to predict the winners for this OT (why not lmfao). Here are the results under three assumptions: Assumptions: • Current OT division placements are finalized (I'm aware that there may be minimal changes) • Each user is currently at the skill rating level of what their Top 100 scores suggests • Each user's Top 15 (which defines a player's overall rank) is representative of their current skill rating. Predictions: Additional thoughts: Feel free to share your thoughts and opinions about your own predictions for this OT or comment on how accurate you think the results above are. :) |
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I'm going for at least top 16, and want to see if I can hit top 8 as a stretch goal perhaps :)
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I predict everyone who participates in this tournament will get a profile badge
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I predict this thread will contain predictions.
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Time to show technology who's boss :')
Also Nakadashi is gonna roll the dice for sure, he's easily D8 for his physicality (33MSD without much farm LOL) and acc is nuts, I could see him winning if he adapts more and plays his cards right lol. The fact he's in D7 chills me. |
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I predict that I'll be out 2nd round again. :D
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- defluxit wins d5
- jh05013 gets top 5 d6 - i get eliminated from d7 in either round 2 or round 4, but not 3 - cup gets top 8 d7 - lawn wake 69 |
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Come on Swedish Meatballs v Devonin finals!
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devilchilly wins d7 again
haku actually wins d6 Anmao stays in D8 long enough with subpar accuracy to dominate the higher rank songs Quote:
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I will be last in D5 :mrgreen:
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DIVISION ONE
WINNER: Fireo R/U: Uni385 DIVISION TWO WINNER: Puzzler64 R/U: TopeDogeWOW DIVISION THREE WINNER: Logman6656 R/U: SC_coolguy44 DIVISION FOUR WINNER: ositzxz369 R/U: psychoangel691 DIVISION FIVE WINNER: PrawnSkunk R/U: qrrbrbirbel DIVISION SIX WINNER: sploder12 R/U: CammyGoesRawr DIVISION SEVEN WINNER: cup R/U: Pizza69 DIVISION EIGHT WINNER: Matthia R/U: AnMaO |
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bouta be last in D2, watch me
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I want to see Haku win D6
and Zenith or Devil win D7 Don't really care about the rest for reasons |
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HBar can take D2 dark horse style
Edit: Nice R1 AAA HBar |
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I hope that y all know that im choosing you to win your division <3
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I'll will get top 3 again probably
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Haku will win D6!
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I will not win D6!
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ill put a bet down for boomer zastari taking a top 3 position, with a side bet for the throne
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I hope ill be able to reach top3 at least [D2] :>
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lights wins d5
nakadashi wins d7 if he plays through the whole tourney, if notdevilchilly wins again anmao wins d8 if he gets a good score immediately, if not matthias or elah my wrist will not heal in time for r1 |
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Prediction: I'm out first round. Hell yeah.
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Holy hek wirry you put me as 8th in D8. That's so nice of you. Never happenin though xd
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anmao will win d8
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Wirry what are you doing to get the data for this? Got any csvs you can share or something? I have a biological survival simulation algorithm I made a while back that I think could be slightly adapted to predict some winners.
BTW: Feelin' underrated here in general, having sightread this weeks song. Hoping to show that your assumptions are unsound. ;) |
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I predict that Ill be top 8 in D5 at the very least. :)
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People sleeping on aperson for D6
He's one of the OGs, I believe |
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he's gonna take it i'll put money on it
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not exactly a prediction but I'm aiming/hoping I make it to round 4 or maybe get close to the cutoff in round 3.
as for predictions, d7 round 2 will be more playable than round 1 |
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D1 - Telnaior/ZFG, the other two who have AAA'd R1 are wild cards since I don't personally know them.
D2 - Kainivy/Demonader/Puzzler64 for top 3 D3 - Such a toss up because there's so many good players in this division, but I'm rooting for Kawaii and Ce1545. D4 - Jonlovesddr. D5 - Pretty much the current top 3 for R1 (Axith/Choof/Defluxit) but Choof can take D5 if he doesn't stop. A lot of honorable mentions in D5 too, D5 is honestly a bit stacked. D6 - MyNameIsNothing/Haku/Aperson for top three. D7 - Devilchilly/Naheeno, D7 winner last year and an apparently D8 player so it seems kinda obvious (and a little uhh) D8 - Matthia/Anmao/Eliminate and I might be willing to bet on this exact order. |
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D1 - SwedishMeatballs
D2 - HBar D3 - TheLegendofPie D4 - VisD D5 - choof D6 - LeftyRighty D7 - DevilChilly D8 - AnMaO |
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A lot of swaps and changes since start of tournament. Here are the updated predictions (newest people color-coded in green)! Will be posting after each round :)
New Predictions Post Round One: |
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I was shocked to be originally in the top 8 algorithm. Even more shocked when you updated it and it moved me to top 6.
I was in D4 for 13 and 13.5, but I was placed in D3 this time. So I guess we will see. |
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Kinda scary playing against previous D4 players in D3 when I just got here myself from D2. Lucky I got a great score early on this round cause I wasn’t sure I could be competitive.
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The fact that I'm considered as top 8 by your algorithm shows that there's missing data in D8 lmao
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I'm gonna sleeper all over this tourney kekeke
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I mean, are the predictions just "The people who AAA'd round 1 are likely to do well"?
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Again, these are only predictions. Don't take these predictions as gospel because anything can happen in the OT. rayword42 can skillboost to his doppelganger ULTIMEGA. choof can hurt himself again and get his cast put back on. Brasegali can skillboost to D8. Anything goes. Myself, my gaming gear is in my apartment and I have to be in NYC with family to run important errands for a good while. I don't expect myself to get Top 8 this tourney even though my scripts are saying otherwise. |
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My Predictions for Top 3!!!: (Left 1st middle 2nd right 3rd)
D1: Fireo, The_Popo, sff_writer_dan D2: TopeDogeWOW, HBar, Demonader D3: Logman6656, _DJ Vinyl_, anrai D4: Jonlovesddr, emulord, katanaeyegaming D5: _Fluttershy_, Brasegali, axith D6: Dark Saga, aperson, spongebobismysenpai D7: Devilchilly, Cryolien, Josemba D8: Matthia, AnMaO, Elah |
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Decided to see who could get the win based on the highest cumulative total while I was at it, because I tried it out in 13.5 and it was pretty accurate, so this is what I got for round 1 (it gets more accurate I'd say the further in it goes).
Predictions: |
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Before Tournament Start: 100% Skill Rating, 0% Tournament Performance After Round 1: 87.5% Skill Rating, 12.5% Tournament Performance After Round 2: 75% Skill Rating, 25% Tournament Performance After Round 3: 62.5% Skill Rating, 37.5% Tournament Performance After Round 4: 50% Skill Rating, 50% Tournament Performance After Round 5: 37.5% Skill Rating, 62.5% Tournament Performance After Round 6: 25% Skill Rating, 75% Tournament Performance After Round 7: 12.5% Skill Rating, 87.5% Tournament Performance After Tournament End: 0% Skill Rating, 100% Tournament Performance (winners are known at this point) It's not hard to standardize all the values to a scale between 0 and 1 in both Skill rating and Tournament Performance metrics and for each case, this would measure the "percentile of how you compare against everyone else in your division", so it also makes sense. I can generate that list too if there's enough interest. |
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idk wtf is going on but keep hitting buttons on those keybaords, ugot this
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You guys know you can see who is winning by looking at the names on the dashboard right? |
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Place your bets
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my usual suspects
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New prediction: my homie legitgamer wins D3, he's killing it lately
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I've looked at the levelranks of a few folks in D5 and Amir has a STRONG chance at winning. He has scores that scare me.
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Updated predictions (newest people color-coded in green)
New Predictions Post Round Two: |
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Post Round 2 Predictions
Predictions: |
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imma aaa this round eat my accs
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With Choof gone from D5, I predict _Fluttershy_ will win that division.
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New predictions: Start of R3
DIVISION ONE Winner: Fireo R/U: Telnaior TOP EIGHT: sff_writer_dan, SwedishMeatballs, zeldagurlfan1, Frans813, uni385, Arzenul DIVISION TWO Winner: Puzzler64 R/U: TopeDogeWOW TOP EIGHT: awesomebox, HBar, LvsL, Deathserpent2, popo55, miiklo DIVISION THREE Winner: Logman6656 R/U: SC_coolguy44 TOP EIGHT: reedkmeister, KLiTz, Zageron, Killuala, 123kappa3, ^Sorrow^ DIVISION FOUR Winner: JibsterGamez R/U: Bok-XN TOP EIGHT: stepman5, katanaeyegaming, Jonlovesddr, VisD, ositzxz369, MKIIPro DIVISION FIVE Winner: kadef R/U: Psycast TOP EIGHT: qrrbrbrirbel, trumaestro, XJ-9, T-Force, storn42, MarcusHawkins DIVISION SIX Winner: Hakulyte R/U: sploder12 TOP EIGHT: good god who the fuck knows at this point lmfao DIVISION SEVEN Winner: mi40 R/U: Naheeno TOP EIGHT: Pizza69, FlynnMac, BigHayden1, cup, alloyus, Devilchilly DIVISION EIGHT Winner: Matthia R/U: Zoobin4 TOP EIGHT: XtraFestive, AnMaO, fastype, SoFast, XxNewson1234xX, xXOpkillerXx |
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Someone has more belief in me than even I do at this point.
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Predict they're will be one Vsnares songs for one of the finals
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Oh right I forgot this was a thing
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Ignoring my model, I personally think the winners for each division will be:
D1: Fireo D2: Deathserpent2 D3: Logman6656 D4: Jonlovesddr D5: Amir96lx (rooting for XJ-9 though) D6: Novelties (rooting for jh05013 though) D7: Naheeno D8: AnMaO I hope both BigHayden1 and FlynnMac continues to skillboost. Both of them have been killing it in D7 so far. Great work guys! I also hope MyNameIsNothing gets his Top 8 for D6 this tournament. If I magically get Top 8, I'd donate my prize to him if I could. He really deserves it. |
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btw everyone is killing it this year and also the files have been super cool so far. as always thank u guys for making this event as cool as it is |
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What's this algorithm people are talking about?
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