Originally Posted by WirryWoo (Post 4763876)

A lot of swaps and changes since start of tournament. Here are the updated predictions (newest people color-coded in green)! Will be posting after each round :)

Originally Posted by WirryWoo (Post 4763876)

A lot of swaps and changes since start of tournament. Here are the updated predictions (newest people color-coded in green)! Will be posting after each round :)

Originally Posted by sff_writer_dan (Post 4763898)

Still no aperson in D6, you fool!

Originally Posted by csoup1414 (Post 4763899)

I was shocked to be originally in the top 8 algorithm. Even more shocked when you updated it and it moved me to top 6.

I was in D4 for 13 and 13.5, but I was placed in D3 this time. So I guess we will see.

Originally Posted by xXOpkillerXx (Post 4763906)

The fact that I'm considered as top 8 by your algorithm shows that there's missing data in D8 lmao

Originally Posted by sff_writer_dan (Post 4763938)

I mean, are the predictions just "The people who AAA'd round 1 are likely to do well"?

Originally Posted by WirryWoo (Post 4763939)

Yo aperson, play more FFR :)

Originally Posted by WirryWoo (Post 4763939)

rayword42 can skillboost to his doppelganger ULTIMEGA.

Originally Posted by WirryWoo (Post 4763939)

choof can hurt himself again and get his cast put back on.

Originally Posted by aperson (Post 4763940)

The best way to improve at FFR is to play Etterna did your algorithm think about that

Originally Posted by FlynnMac (Post 4764013)

Decided to see who could get the win based on the highest cumulative total while I was at it, because I tried it out in 13.5 and it was pretty accurate, so this is what I got for round 1 (it gets more accurate I'd say the further in it goes).

Originally Posted by WirryWoo (Post 4764021)

No. That would assume having a reliable mapping to point usernames on FFR to Etterna and translating the languages between Etterna's MSD and FFR's skill rating. Both are nearly impossible to do automatically.



Thanks for compiling this list. An interesting idea would be to combine the two ratings together. Something like:

Before Tournament Start: 100% Skill Rating, 0% Tournament Performance
After Round 1: 87.5% Skill Rating, 12.5% Tournament Performance
After Round 2: 75% Skill Rating, 25% Tournament Performance
After Round 3: 62.5% Skill Rating, 37.5% Tournament Performance
After Round 4: 50% Skill Rating, 50% Tournament Performance
After Round 5: 37.5% Skill Rating, 62.5% Tournament Performance
After Round 6: 25% Skill Rating, 75% Tournament Performance
After Round 7: 12.5% Skill Rating, 87.5% Tournament Performance
After Tournament End: 0% Skill Rating, 100% Tournament Performance (winners are known at this point)

It's not hard to standardize all the values to a scale between 0 and 1 in both Skill rating and Tournament Performance metrics and for each case, this would measure the "percentile of how you compare against everyone else in your division", so it also makes sense.

I can generate that list too if there's enough interest.

Originally Posted by sff_writer_dan (Post 4764028)

You guys know you can see who is winning by looking at the names on the dashboard right?

Originally Posted by mi40 (Post 4764032)

the thread title is predictions, not current placements

Originally Posted by sff_writer_dan (Post 4764028)

You guys know you can see who is winning by looking at the names on the dashboard right?

Originally Posted by mi40 (Post 4764035)

Well yes I know that, thank you.