Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

Does this mean that there could be a wolf between Sunfan/YoshL ?

MAYBE?

What's interesting here is that if we accept any sort of partnership between these two, we actually have to write off Trevor as town

The reason for this is obvious: There is no fucking way two partners try to kill their third partner two days in a row

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

Please feel free to chime into my descent into absolute madness

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

Interestingly, MYLO is the most vulnerable game state not just for town, but for wolves, too

They stand to lose everything if they aren't super careful about how they tread this phase.

I bring this up because the wolves are going to do whatever they can to confuse us this phase, without overextending themselves. There's gonna be some sweet-talk to cover the mistakes they've made in the past, so it's important to not let yourself be swayed or misguided by your wolf leans if you have confidence in what you believe.

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

Shadow, did you play the Nonary Games turbo? I was all but outed as a wolf and he hard defended me the whole time.

To summarize: no.

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

Is there a partnership between Freezin' and T-Force?

It's possible, seeing as I don't recall either of them talking to each other very much all game long...

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

He bussed in the AC game, though.

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

I helped Roundbox host that game, if you remember I was the one you guys would be confirming kills with

Then the wolfchat server died

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

I mentioned this way early into the game with Trevor actually

The consensus there was that Sunfan doesn't bus EXCEPT if his identity is hidden

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

Even though we're in MYLO we're in a decent spot still, because we effectively have 3 cleareds and a 60% shot even if we guess randomly. If we find another town in that pool that takes us to 75%.

Current gut: sunfan is town. That leaves Force, YoshL, Freezin, and Plop.

I highly doubt Plop and Force are both wolves. So, if Plop flips red, Force is likely clear. That leaves Freezin and YoshL as the remaining wolves unless we decide to reevaluate sunfan later.

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

If the wolfteam is sunfan/raeko/[t-force/yoshl] I'm gonna freak out.

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

As a matter of principle, sunfan doesn't bus. I think he busses when he basically has to, or maybe under anon shenanigans.

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

It's interesting you bring up Freezin' and YoshL...

I seem to recall YoshL interacting to Freezin's stuff....

I'll have to go back and see if Freezin interacted with YoshL's stuff

My memory seems to think he did not

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

I've already said my piece on that, but to re-iterate, I think the anon game allowed some cover for him to get away with it. After all, the point of it is to try and hide who you are.
So I don't think that can have credence lent to it.

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

Why do you feel so strongly about sunfan being town?

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

I will have a fucking aneurysm if Raeko is wolfing here.

I will Manfred Von Karma my face into my desk until I see bone marrow

I will cry

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

Actually... Now I'm paranoid, and feel the need to look back at Raeko for some reason

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

I bused in Animal Crossing because I saw the setup after it was on page 20 or something, and I realized that there were so many players and only 4 wolves, plus a bunch of ways for town/3p to get kp

I needed to go deep to win that one, and I suspected that Zucker's activity would get them killed eventually (sorry raeko) so I tried to make sure I got the credit

I rather dislike busing, and I really only do it if I have to.

To answer the question of "Would Sunfan try to kill T-Force two phases in a row if they're both wolves" the safe answer is generally going to be "no"

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

nice

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

Hey, don't panic or pull a Haku. We don't have to totally solve the game right now. Your time and energy is precious, don't waste it going down rabbit holes for a lynch that's not gonna happen today.

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

Okay I feel better looking at her

I don't kill Raeko ever here

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

raeko, when you have time I'd also like to see you go back and justify your plop+yoshl reads

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

When I'm at my computer I'll try to justify it. A lot of things don't make a lot of sense if he's a wolf, based on what we know about wagons. IIRC he also had some good towny takes, but I'll have to dig for those.

(also if I have to lose this game I'd prefer it be to sunfan, lol...)

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

Hold on a minute here...

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

I would have to re-read this entire game for this

But it's not out of the realm of possibility that YoshL/T-Force are a pair

I cannot recall a single instance where they have interacted with each other all game long

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

yoshl's talked a fair bit about t-force, and t-force's responded to yoshl at least more than once, if that's what you mean by interactions.

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

Welp.. there goes that

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

Yeah, if you go back to D0, YoshL puts sus on me and puts the first vote on me, and I talk about his vote afterwards.
He also voted me again in D1, as you yourself points out with your points of: sunfan and YoshL have been trying to kill TWGma for 2 days now.

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

Yeah I took a short break and figured that out while I was outside

I am slowly going insane

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

I mean, I still think they're wolves together. My only issue is that yoshl left his vote on t-force before he had to leave on d0's EOD, and t-force came pretty close to dying there.

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

BUT THAT PAIRS SUNFAN WITH YOSHL WHICH MAKES NO SENSE EITHER

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

Wait wait wait

I actually am going insane

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

You're on the way to reaching enlightenment!

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

Accidental bussing?

Or intentions of distancing?

Those are the only two options in this scenario

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

WHY CAN'T YOU PEOPLE BE EASIER TO READ

JESUS FUCKING CHRIST

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

Do I get to rub the Buddha statue and get three wishes?

I NEED these three wishes right now

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

I just realized I haven't spoken about Freezin' enough here... I have to actually go ISO him

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

i've been keeping up with thread and am like just a little frustrated at not being really able to engage with anything that's been said, mostly because none of the issues that have been brought up against me (i've felt) have been anything to actually have discourse over.

things like "yoshl was voting tforce d0 and d1" is just, tforce has been the wolfiest in my eyes and has never trended upwards like ever. the constant backing off of him from the rest of the game also feels like there's actual validity to my read. simply saying "yoshl voted" without actually looking at like, why i'm voting and just saying "well wolf yoshl can do this" sucks because like, what am I even able to respond with? "no you're wrong" is about it

same with "i'm paranoid of yoshl" that sunfan's been throwing, which beyond that he still hasn't established any like actual thing i can engage with. plop's post as well which i flagged also pretty much flags the same kind of stuff, and i tried to respond once but like, didn't feel like it was going to even be cared about by people because there's not much to explain other than "you're thinking about me wrong"

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

Haku please come back to life. I need a tinfoiling partner

Am I tinfoiling?

Or am I just going mental?

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

YoshL you've played with T-Force a bunch, yes?

Can you point anything out in this game that would match up with his wolf meta?

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

BOY I SURE WISH THIS GAME HAD ITAS

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

Nevermind that's a dumb question, I'm not going to bother because the answer will be "WELL MUH TOP WOLF READ, DUH"

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

i mentioned it previously but i don't really care about stock in meta.

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

Okay

Tell me about your other two wolf reads, what's got you on them?

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

i'll try and make a post tomorrow morning
after that, I won't be posting very much in the day, I might be able to delegate like an hour before EOD, but I might have to swing by in the last 15 minutes or something

just as a heads up

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

WHAT IF WE'RE ALL JUST FUCKING WOLVES AND WE'VE BEEN CURSED TO CANNIBALIZE EACH OTHER UNTIL ROUNDBOX HAS HAD ENOUGH LAUGHTER

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

HI HAKU I NEED YOUR TINFOILING WISDOM

I WILL SACRIFICE AS MANY FOREST ANIMALS AS IT TAKES TO BRING YOU BACK TO LIFE

I WILL PRAY TO WHATEVER GOD THERE IS TO GIVE ME ANYTHING THAT WILL STOP ME FROM GOING INSANE

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

WHERE'S THAT FUCKING DOG IMAGE I WANT TO SPAM IT AS I SPIRAL DOWN INTO INSANITY

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

i think my stance on sunfan (i did actually go back and reread, but i cannot get over the lazy read on me) and plop (for generally similar reasons, his read on me stinks for reasons i've elucidated many times now)

I think honestly shadow real talk though, while there's fun to be had flooding thread with a lot of posts that don't have any bearing on game, at this point, you're established as a blue, and there's more here to be gained from just turning it down. i'll admit that it was tougher to catch back up when i was behind when i have to scroll through stuff like that. Especially in this end phase when people aren't available all the time, it kinda isn't nice to have people's thoughts obfuscated behind a lot of double, triple, quad posts that aren't saying anything

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

if it's any consolation I don't think you're on the chopping block today

if I had to guess it looks like it's gonna be Plop vs. T-Force

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

yoshl
I don't think a single person has given you an in-depth read this game
a lot of us are guilty of being lazy

you know I can't read you super well, I know that you know this
do you expect me to deliver an expose on you? like, what are you expecting me to do as town that I'm not doing for you here with my read on you

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

I think it'd be more consolation if like I could actually know what was wrong to explain, or respond to whatever reads or concerns that people have. Especially when it feels like it's just a random seed of paranoia that someone stuck in thread that somehow sprouted and no-one will throw me any weed killer lmao

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

FAIR ENOUGH

I do want to know though

Does Sunfan's paranoia seem genuine or fabricated to you?

Is that something Shadefan does as a wolf?

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

other people feel free to step in because i also don't want to like dictate flow when we have confirms in thread but like

beyond "yoshl can play like a town when they're wolf" or "bad vibes even though we're sitting in D2"

i don't know whether it's genuine or fabricated. what sucks more is like, he's not even wrong, i'm pretty sure i have the capability of posting similarly the same as town as wolf, or as sunfan says "is in yoshl's wolfrange"

the issue is that it feels baseless beyond that.

Like a parallel if i can get you to understand what i'm feeling is if someone says to shadow "hey shadow hasn't really rolled wolf much, so i'm paranoid that him playing the same might actually be wolf!".

it's possible sure, but like, there's no way to say definitely ever yes or no. and there's not really any way to defend someone trying to push that kind of read, and there's not really much way to engage well

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

T-Force you've been here for what feels to be at least a year

Any thoughts so far?

Wanna talk about your other two reads you got?

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

@YoshL fair enough... I guess that's a way of looking at it

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

Hmmm... Freezin....and T-Force...

Both days that Trevor was under fire, Freezin was against the idea of lynching him...

Freezin supported lynches that we now know to be town...

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

I've had the thread open in a tab while chatting with friends.
Sunfan reminds me ogf the game he and I wolfed together where he's taking it very casually and not going super in depth with anything aside from a few nuggets here and there.
Thing is, while they can be towny bits, sunfan is more than capable of hiding behind those.

Plus, his EOD yesterday was just terrible.


YoshL, I hate to say, is just PoE at this point. He's null at best for me because I haven't seen anything that is really wolfy, but at the same time, it just feels like he's just.. there. Lurking.

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

But I feel like that's way too dumb, if it's true...

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

Dumb question here:

Assuming for a minute we lynch a townie here

We have two PRs who can potentially stop a night kill

Are we given that chance to keep the game down to 7?

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

Yeah.

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

Wolf Matrix, based on self-reporting data

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

this might be a lie

YoshL appears on 100% of the scum pool's scumlists, yet is never the #1 pick

This gives YoshL very high wolf PR equity

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

DBP what on Earth is that?

Can you explain that to me using small words?

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

sunfan is generally the most suspicious, and T-Force the least, which is kind of interesting, considering how this game has gone

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

Sure

I took each of the "top 3 wolf" lists from the scum pool and organized it into a chart. Each row in the chart represents that person's reads. A "3" is "most wolfy", a "1" is "least wolfy", gray cells are self-reads, green cells are those that didn't appear on that person's list.

So if you look at Row: YoshL and Column: Force, you see a 3, which means that YoshL has Force as top wolf.

The freq row indicates how frequently that column appeared on someone else's wolf list (e.g. YoshL appears on every single list except his own)

The Sum row is a sum of each column's values, to indicate a kind of overall suspicion momentum for each player

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

Don't worry about that too much, it's just a visual way to display the information each player gave earlier

Next, I'm gonna try to go through the thread and find mutual exclusions (i.e. "who almost certainly cannot be on a team together?")

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

As far as aggregating and interpreting the data goes----

Like I said, YoshL appears on every other player's list, but never strongly.

Freezin only appears on 50% of the lists, but each time with the strongest suspicion. So, sunfan and Plop both have "Freezin wolf" as a strong conviction.

sunfan is generally the most suspected.

T-Force is generally the least suspected.

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

Actually, gonna do dead people's reads first.

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

or the other world, where (still) the best thing people have is "yoshl PoE"
i think the matrix is cool, but also not examining it from a holistic point of view is literally skewing reasoning wrong from what you're saying here.

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

yeah, it's more useful just as raw data, or in conjunction with other info

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

About Freezinice:

Way earlier in D0 he started a thunderdome between himself and FFA. How characteristic of him is this as either alignment? I can very well interpret this as, "I'm gonna feign machismo/confidence in this read I have so I appear more invested in solving. But I'm never gonna be in danger because I have numbers on my side"

In other words, the thunderdome is a performance of a logical gamble when in reality there's no risk--- but it's free town points

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

The weird (?) thing is that after that thunderdome didn't pan out, he ended up placing his vote on Ulli, even when FFA was still an option for a lynch

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

Some compiled reads of the dead:

FFA:

That's about it. FFA thinks Freezin's read on Sunfan is bullshit:

sunfan however refutes FFA's scumread on Freezin, and that seems to appease FFA a bit.

FFA doesn't vote this phase, and then dies.

Ulli:

She calls one of YoshL's D0 posts towny. When forced to pick between T-Force and FFA, she picks FFA, and then dies.

Xiz:

Voted for Ulli because he thought about a Ulli/sunfan wolf pairing. We know this isn't true, but might still reflect on sunfan as to how he defended her. Raeko light town, YoshL gets a strong townread based on a single post on D0.

For the mistrial EoD, he votes Ulli.

By the end of the phase he felt extremely strong that FG/T-Force aren't W/W. He said they might be T/W, but is leaning more towards T/T.

Then T-Force wagon started (FG had her vote there first. FG convinced YoshL to vote for T-Force, but FG eventually swapped off. YoshL and Haku stayed.). Xiz was suspicious of the growing momentum on T-Force all of a sudden. But we know that the only person left alive on the T-Force wagon is YoshL. Then Xiz dies.

FG:

She initially notes raeko town, and sunfan as "ok." This later grows into sunfan becoming a town read. She makes a remark about being unimpressed by Freezin, and that his reads list was "a bunch of nothing."

Towards EoD:

She votes T-Force, probably for the meme at first. As mentioned above, she sells YoshL on voting for T-Force, making him the second vote on a T-Force wagon.

FG develops a real scumread on T-Force, worried that T-Force isn't playing along with the game. T-Force responds with something like, "that shitposting only applies for the first 24 hours" (is this even true?) and then things turn serious. This hurts FG's feelings and she moves her vote to Plopadop.

The next day, she gets shit over her swap to Plop. Response:

^I don't think she ever delivered on this promise, but it's a good idea. We know now that the KitB was T/T and this is useful in the context of a reread.

Shadow asks how the fuck to read Plopadop. FG response:

I'm guessing that a wolf Plop is more likely to make astute defenses of town players because... he knows they're town. This is worth checking out this phase.

Then she gets replaced.

Subaru:

Unfortunately Subaru really doesn't give us a lot, because he decided to ISO his own slot (???). This is the closest thing we have from him (a bit jumbled, from my notes):

Later on, I think Plop responded with a big wallpost. This wallpost brings Subaru's read on Plop back to null, and he starts to grow more suspicious of YoshL. Then he dies.

---------------------------------

Haku's ISO is... gonna have to be its own thing. But you will notice a very consistent trend amongst the dead people: Plop is consistently scum.

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

FWIW, every single person in this game (besides sunfan) has expressed suspicion of Plopadop and never really changed their minds on him.

(I'll have to go back and make sure I'm not wrong about sunfan. But regardless.)

Plop is like, 90% wolf here, imo.

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

I have to say...

Fatfuck the Death Bringer isn't exactly the name that strikes fear in the hearts of men

I'll be incredibly sad if it's just a string of unfortunate events and he just happens to be town

But I doubt it.

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

Worth noting that everybody has just been hilariously wrong about most of the game so far. I had to splice out so many scumreads on Ulli, Haku, Xiz, FG...

Not gonna let that affect how I view their reads though. Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

If you ISO Haku it gets even funnier

He has thrown almost every dead townie into wolf worlds

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

A thing from Haku

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

I guess I should read that giant Plop post again... There could be some insight and solving tools in there if he's revealed as a wolf