Re: TWG CLXXVIII: Danganronpa [Game Thread]
 

Also (obviously), if the no-lynch strategy plays out favorably, it would still require a correct lynch tomorrow.

Re: TWG CLXXVIII: Danganronpa [Game Thread]
 

This intro is just to get the post to show up.

***

We really should get to talking again. All remaining scenarios depend on identifying the Acqui and deciding whether they're currently controlling a town or wolf account. We can scumhunt based on past days, but finding the Acqui requires that we analyze the present.

As it currently stands, I suspect either Makoto or Sakura is the Acqui. This post

is tonally consistent with my view of Byakuya as a writer and isn't something that I would expect from Junko, although making that assumption based on a single post is dangerous (which is why further discussion from everyone would be beneficial). Sakura has obviously been more vocal today, as has Makoto, but that's easily explained by reduced player numbers and an endgame setting.

Re: TWG CLXXVIII: Danganronpa [Game Thread]
 

We're fucked. Kyoko is looking for the acquisitioner and not even pretending to scumhunt, which means that the wolf and the acquisitioner are not the same person.

Re: TWG CLXXVIII: Danganronpa [Game Thread]
 

We can scumhunt based on information from previous days, and in fact that's likely to be more useful for scumhunting than anything that happens today. We can't use past days to determine who the acquisitioner is (except for the purpose of comparison) because, mechanically, no one left in the game was the acqui until today. As I already explained, lynching either a sole wolf or a sole acqui results in an endgame loss. The goal here should be to create enough discussion that people can come to their own conclusions regarding the identity of the acqui, and see if that matches their suspected wolf.

But by all means, please continue complaining about how we're fucked. I'm sure that will solve things.

Re: TWG CLXXVIII: Danganronpa [Game Thread]
 

...which is precisely what my previous post does

Re: TWG CLXXVIII: Danganronpa [Game Thread]
 

While we're here, do you have any SCUMreads? It seems backwards that you're trying to match the wolf and the acqui together instead of looking for wolves, which is "easier" and then seeing if they're the acqui.

Re: TWG CLXXVIII: Danganronpa [Game Thread]
 

Like ffs, Leon flipped red last night. The first thing that came into my mind was to use that information to find wolves

Re: TWG CLXXVIII: Danganronpa [Game Thread]
 

I guess my fundamental question with your play this phase is this:

If we need to lynch both the wolf and the acqui this phase in order to win (we is true), why are you intentionally making it harder on yourself by looking for the acqui this phase instead of the wolf, where there are actual previous day connections and red flips? It makes little sense to begin your search this way. And you haven't even made lipservice about who you think a wolf is.

My answer is that you're a wolf and you only care about the acquisitioner because lynching them is the only way you can win. You are totally correct that town can only win if wolf+acqui are same person, but you are using this as an excuse to only hunt for the acqui and try to get them lynched because "hey, they have to be a wolf too, or else we lose anyway." Which, again, is true, but you are making use of that as a convenience for yourself to win as a wolf.

I'm pretty sold on you being a wolf, which sucks, because your preoccupation with the acqui means that they are NOT you, and thus we can't win at this point. But at the very least, I'm not going down on your terms.

Re: TWG CLXXVIII: Danganronpa [Game Thread]
 

Regarding the acquisitioner, just because, it's either Byakuya or Makoto. Byakuya has been playing consistently and their play style is easy to read, which makes it easier for somebody to assume that slot without it being suspicious. Makoto has been all over the board with play and consistency this game, which makes it difficult to emulate. They also are inherently more suspicious for this, which makes an acqui jump into them less desirable.

Re: TWG CLXXVIII: Danganronpa [Game Thread]
 

Honestly, Sakura, I think you're the Acquisitioner. Your case against me relies considerably on Leon's actions, which isn't unreasonable. But you conveniently ignore that Leon yesterday wasn't Leon the Wolf. It was Leon the Acquisitioner.

Yesterday's EoD (as it pertains to Leon's behavior) needs to be contextualized by that. Everything Leon did yesterday was actually Junko, in pursuit of their own agenda. Now, Leon tethered to me before that, so Leon-nort's behavior yesterday was likely meant to be a believable recreation of his prior behavior. But Fake Leon would also have known they had finally acquired a scum account, and thus that today would probably look much like this. So that also allowed them to set up a false case against me.

As soon as today started, you came out hard against me. That's not problematic in and of itself, and for a time I actually read you as townier as a result. But you've deliberately avoided considering any other possibilities, even to the extent that your goal is apparently to lynch me over winning the game.

Your approach is much more emotional than it had been previously. At the same time, it's way more aggressive and ordered than your previous play. I'd argue that your voice and style have changed substantially overnight.

What I think happened is that the Acqui acquired Leon, continued linking Leon to me, then acquired you. Having built a case against me previously, you're attempting to use it now. The thing is, that's still dangerous for you if you're NOT the wolf. But that doesn't mean you have to be, unfortunately. At the same time, I wonder why you'd sell out so heavily on this case if it weren't a guaranteed win.

Re: TWG CLXXVIII: Danganronpa [Game Thread]
 

Having said all that, I can't be sure you're the wolf (or technically even the acqui, although it seems likely when tone reading everyone). I'm reviewing Makoto and Byakuya now. I've read Makoto once already, but there simply isn't a lot there. Byakuya feels town, but a good scum player can project that.

Re: TWG CLXXVIII: Danganronpa [Game Thread]
 

Wherein Kyoko hasn't gotten the message and is still concerned with the acquisitioner

1) a) Leon the Acquisitioner probably thought you were his partner and replicated that same behavior to save his ass yesterday. And while that does make me look bad because I also think you're a wolf, that's not a counterargument as to your wolfiness. Furthermore, it would be way safer to... not put all my eggs in one basket...? to just sit back and let exactly what is happening right now happen and then jump on board that wagon.
b) I almost died yesterday so acquing me would be lol.

2) I'm pressuring you and you're failing. I'd be able to move on to other people if
a) you actually addressed any of my concerns, or
b) if there was any other activity in this game right now.

3) I'm emotional because
a) the identity wolf is dead and I don't have to be restrained in my posting
b) I want to lynch antitown today because that's really the only meaningful thing we can do today

Re: TWG CLXXVIII: Danganronpa [Game Thread]
 

This.

Re: TWG CLXXVIII: Danganronpa [Game Thread]
 

What else is there to do in this fucking game at this point????

Re: TWG CLXXVIII: Danganronpa [Game Thread]
 

Re: TWG CLXXVIII: Danganronpa [Game Thread]
 

I've had this wolf read for two fucking days now and you're surprised that I'm trying to lynch her for it??? It's not even meaningful because this game is already over fmpov

Re: TWG CLXXVIII: Danganronpa [Game Thread]
 

Kyoko is the wolf and Byakuya is the acquisitioner

what do we do with this information?

Re: TWG CLXXVIII: Danganronpa [Game Thread]
 

I was thinking. It was in the acquisitioner's best interest to acquire the wolf this phase. I think they have a good chance of knowing who the wolf is because they can infiltrate the wolf night chat.

Why would Leon link himself to Kyoko last phase?

Also, rip Makoto. I don't think he's making it to EOD.

Re: TWG CLXXVIII: Danganronpa [Game Thread]
 

So if you were really on the town's team, you'd want a no lynch. This is definitely wrong, though.

Re: TWG CLXXVIII: Danganronpa [Game Thread]
 

It's never in the acquisitioner's best interest to get the wolf this phase. The correct mechanical play is for them to have 1 wolf, 1 acqui, and 2 town in final four.

You should know this

Re: TWG CLXXVIII: Danganronpa [Game Thread]
 

Really? Why?

Re: TWG CLXXVIII: Danganronpa [Game Thread]
 

No lynch is great

I just want to waggle my dick around and solve the game before it's out of my hands

Re: TWG CLXXVIII: Danganronpa [Game Thread]
 

Because it's easier to operate when there's split attention as opposed to devoted attention to hunting a single person

Re: TWG CLXXVIII: Danganronpa [Game Thread]
 

I'll have you suck my dick in postgame when I'm right. Maybe Makoto is the acqui and they didn't even bother showing up, like what happened D1.

That's the detective's reasoning, we have 20 minutes left.

Re: TWG CLXXVIII: Danganronpa [Game Thread]
 

That's actually consistent with the acqui's behavior this game... popping in at start, and either not showing up, or appearing with like 30 mins left only

no lynch and hope they cannibalize each other in the night I guess

I just want it to be clear that I solved this game

Re: TWG CLXXVIII: Danganronpa [Game Thread]
 

Wait, no, this is a loss no matter what, isn't it

Re: TWG CLXXVIII: Danganronpa [Game Thread]
 

So, not sure what to make of Makoto. Their early play was dominated by jokes and sarcasm, but hinted at greater things to come. They took a more traditional approach during the second day, but still noted low motivation. Since then, they've made a series of sort-of excuses for inactivity. Today, they made a couple early posts, then disappeared (although that too was telegraphed):

The biggest departure from their usual play was obviously their opening post of the day.

I'll ignore that their numbers don't add up, since they're probably a representation of personal ideas than a meaningful alignment algorithm.

This post has some problems, though. If I'm reading it correctly, they don't think I'm a wolf, but think I might be the acqui. That doesn't make a lot of sense to me: I can read myself as a wolf much more easily than acqui, since my writing style is designed to be difficult to emulate.

Byakuya's assessment is more or less fine; I agree with the basics, although I feel like Byakuya has adequately preserved their tone and underlying game approach--but since this was the first post of the day, they had nothing to go on. Byakuya, on account of probably being the most towny-looking player going into the day, would have been a reasonable acquisition.

The exact numbers for Sakura (60+15+25=100) actually bother me, because their numbers elsewhere don't add up. I also don't like that, although Makoto has Sakura as a strong favorite as wolf, there isn't any real reasoning in that direction.

***

As for their actual play, it's hard to judge. Byakuya made a sort of town-Makoto case yesterday, but to me it's not especially compelling. Their game has been so low key that it's difficult to assign profoundly pro-town or pro-wolf traits to them.

Ultimately, I have a difficult time seeing Makoto as an anti-town player, since they're still not here. Admittedly, they suggested as much earlier, but I'd feel a lone wolf or acqui would want to control EoD as best they can, particularly since if they're not both roles in one, there's another anti-town player able to potentially conspire against them.

Re: TWG CLXXVIII: Danganronpa [Game Thread]
 

Acqui takes over Kyoko in the night, Kyoko shoots me because she thinks I'm the acquisitioner

leaving 1 acqui, 1 town

Re: TWG CLXXVIII: Danganronpa [Game Thread]
 

Fuck you Mukuro.

Re: TWG CLXXVIII: Danganronpa [Game Thread]
 

Did you even read what I wrote earlier? No, it's not, but it's luck dependent.

If we No Lynch, everyone goes into the night alive. That would be, specifically, either three town and an acquired wolf, or two town, one acquired town, and one wolf.

In the former case, we could win by lynching now. But the latter case would lose if we lynch, no matter who we lynch.

In the former case, we automatically lose if we don't lynch now--if the Acqui gets to use the the wolf power (kill, then acquire). If they acquire without being able to kill, then we'd go into a 2:1 tomorrow.

In the latter case, we would need to hope that either the wolf kills the acqui before they can acquire (I assume this would be the case based on the existence of the bulletproof option for the acqui), or that the wolf targets the existing acqui, fails, and then is acquired. Either case would result in a 2:1 tomorrow.

Re: TWG CLXXVIII: Danganronpa [Game Thread]
 

Not speaking mechanically. Whoever the wolf is thinks I'm the acquisitioner and will nightkill me. Which... yeah.

Re: TWG CLXXVIII: Danganronpa [Game Thread]
 

We've finally found something we can agree on.

Re: TWG CLXXVIII: Danganronpa [Game Thread]
 

Byakuya scaring me by just watching and not doing anything

Re: TWG CLXXVIII: Danganronpa [Game Thread]
 

Kyoko, do you think the wolf has been acquisitioned or not?

Re: TWG CLXXVIII: Danganronpa [Game Thread]
 

I'm at a loss for what to do. I'm leaning towards no-lynch, but if the acquisitioner really did acquire the wolf, then we lose.

Re: TWG CLXXVIII: Danganronpa [Game Thread]
 

We're low on time. Do you have any actual reads Byakuya?

Re: TWG CLXXVIII: Danganronpa [Game Thread]
 

INB4 Kyoko answers yes and uses that as a reason to get a vote off on me

Re: TWG CLXXVIII: Danganronpa [Game Thread]
 

Don't fucking CFD here assholes. Make your votes clear

Re: TWG CLXXVIII: Danganronpa [Game Thread]
 

Both of you fuckers waiting for the other to make a vote so you can win

Fuck you Makoto

Re: TWG CLXXVIII: Danganronpa [Game Thread]
 

I'm like 50 Sakura, 30 you, 20 Makoto on the wolf. So I'm split on that. I'm leaning toward voting Sakura, but I kind of want to punt on the whole thing and just hope the night works out.

Re: TWG CLXXVIII: Danganronpa [Game Thread]
 

wait... Leon said this last phase.

Kyoko

Re: TWG CLXXVIII: Danganronpa [Game Thread]
 

Kyoko vote right now, asshole. Don't ninja a vote to instantly end this game

Re: TWG CLXXVIII: Danganronpa [Game Thread]
 

Re: TWG CLXXVIII: Danganronpa [Game Thread]
 

Kyoko trying to stall and steal the vote into KITB

Re: TWG CLXXVIII: Danganronpa [Game Thread]
 

Are you fucking shitting me?

Sakura

Re: TWG CLXXVIII: Danganronpa [Game Thread]
 

You were wrong Byakuya.

Re: TWG CLXXVIII: Danganronpa [Game Thread]
 

Re: TWG CLXXVIII: Danganronpa [Game Thread]
 

Re: TWG CLXXVIII: Danganronpa [Game Thread]
 

Well, apparently I could read Acquisitioners but not Wolves. And yet the Acqui won. What a world. :P