Re: The FFR AAAdvent Calendar
 

The singular chance of winning is always 50%, but the chance of winning (or losing) a certain amount of times will always be smaller than the singular chance. The chance of winning a set number of times in this case will always be 1/2^n, where n is the number of win or loss times.

Though this is hardly just talk however, take a look at my credit winnings from the gambling hall (keep in mind that these are hundreds upon hundreds of bets, not just a few, and that a lot of it came from the past couple days after changing my baseline to 1k instead of 50 credits):

Re: The FFR AAAdvent Calendar
 

this thread made me start using the gambling hall

Re: The FFR AAAdvent Calendar
 

gambling is fun and i encourage it

Re: The FFR AAAdvent Calendar
 

What's your Best Win Streak, and your Worst Lose Streak?

Re: The FFR AAAdvent Calendar
 

I used a similar system to you and lost quite a bit. You have to remember that someone loses a credit for each credit that you win. So while you're up 300k, that means that the rest of FFR collectively is down 300k from those particular bets.


I routinely had 6-7 bet losing streaks. That and combined with the fact that I was 0/13 on bets 100k and higher helps contribute to that net loss.

Your system is a good way to realize short-term gains, but over the long-term it will even out to zero.

Re: The FFR AAAdvent Calendar
 

FFR eats 2% of whatever goes through the gambling hall, so someone loses a credit for each .98 credit that you win.

That's how we pay server costs.

Re: The FFR AAAdvent Calendar
 

This is true. The chance that your next 5 bets will be a win streak is 1/32. But i'm talking about conditional probabilitys: what is the chance you will win if you are already on a 4 win streak? The answer is 1/2.

Re: The FFR AAAdvent Calendar
 

Best win streak: 9
Worst lose streak: 9

Also yeah if you take a larger risk you can crash and burn real hard. It's not a perfect method, it's just one that generally works quite well.

EDIT: Over the past few minutes I've taken several more bets...
Credits Won: 618498
Credits Lost: 306450

Noticing a trend?

Re: The FFR AAAdvent Calendar
 

If you have the credits, and use the win streaks to your advantage though, I think that profits are almost a guarantee!! (9 is a good number to look at imo)

Re: The FFR AAAdvent Calendar
 

How exactly would I use a winning streak to my advantage though? There's no way I could know exactly how many times I am going to win. All I know is that as I win more, the chance of winning a set of n+1 is 1/2^n+1, which doesn't seem appealing to me.

Re: The FFR AAAdvent Calendar
 

Hah, you guys using the gambling hall like it's gonna GET you credits. :P


I learned the necessary hard way to stay away from that shit when I lost 800,000 of my hard earned credits. rip.

Re: The FFR AAAdvent Calendar
 

Here's the trend I see. The Win-Lose situation will go by win, lose, win, lose, when someone wagers/accepts.

Basically, you click wager, then someone accepts.
Obviously that's win, then lose.
So, the next person who wagers wins, and the next person accepts loses.
Then, if you wager before someone else, you win, and if you wager after someone else, you lose. (It's the opposite if someone accepts the other person's wager, then yours)

So basically it's...
Click wager/accept - Win
Click wager/accept - Lose
Click wager/accept - Win
Click wager/accept - Lose
Click wager/accept - Win
Click wager/accept - Lose
.
.
.

Of course, this goes by everyone's point of view combined, no just one person'ts point of view. (I hope this makes sense)

This, of course, can go vise versa too depending on the situation.

Re: The FFR AAAdvent Calendar
 

Whoever took the 500k lost it cause that was my bet unless there was another one in there at some point

Re: The FFR AAAdvent Calendar
 

Put more up, have fun

someone got my 25k I see :)


and my 50k

Re: The FFR AAAdvent Calendar
 

oh
Bet Amount When Result
50,000 36 seconds ago Lost
100,000 32 seconds ago Lost
500,000 24 seconds ago Lost
250,000 28 seconds ago Lost

Re: The FFR AAAdvent Calendar
 

rushy skyrocketing up the top 10 lost leaderboard

Re: The FFR AAAdvent Calendar
 

I guess in between these amounts, someone won credits when taken?

Re: The FFR AAAdvent Calendar
 

Ouch

Re: The FFR AAAdvent Calendar
 

Does you History of Wagers PLaced say Won Lost Won Lost Won Lost... in that order?

Re: The FFR AAAdvent Calendar
 

Wow that sucks, though that 50k start risk factor...