Old 06-4-2017, 02:37 AM   #221
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Default Re: jTWG LXXXI I Got Nothin' Game Thread

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Also hes targetting opkiller maybe cuz he was hesitating on lynching Haku next, which he convenitenly omitted from his round 1 analysis.
I will happily address that when xXOpKillerXx comes back.
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Old 06-4-2017, 06:23 AM   #222
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Default Re: jTWG LXXXI I Got Nothin' Game Thread

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However for the sake of argument, -IF- I am a power town, lynch Rapta. I already have two votes and it'd be a waste if I died
.. lmao I really think h&h is a wolf, unless he is a power role and just doing another "lynch without actual reason".

If I die and flip town, and h&h is alive, lynch him.
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Rapta thinks alot about memes and fonts. I'd be inclined to think he's town because wolves wouldn't have time to meme would they ?
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Old 06-4-2017, 06:29 AM   #223
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Default Re: jTWG LXXXI I Got Nothin' Game Thread

what haku is saying about mass claiming sounds like a good way to solve the game
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Originally Posted by IwasAsquidOnce
Note the left hand pinky. It stretches out into attack mode to make etienne's hand appear larger, an intimidation technique for the arrows.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mourningfall
[3:51 PM] Mourningfall: i spent the second half of that song getting face fucked by a fly
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Hi I see rapta come play TWG next game
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Rapta thinks alot about memes and fonts. I'd be inclined to think he's town because wolves wouldn't have time to meme would they ?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Prawnskunk
if we keep releasing engines that work on 1/4 of people's computers, we'll get there
Quote:
Originally Posted by gold stinger
do u even agrabah
Quote:
Originally Posted by gold stinger
Today at 12:53 AM
I have no fucking idea how you were able to identify that specific line from meme show so you are basically an elder god of memes
Quote:
Originally Posted by Psychotik
When I think Mother’s Day, I think Venetian Snares.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Haku
have you heard someone mention eating pancakes to negate friday 13th?




Quote:
Originally Posted by Prawnskunk at 10:53:56pm on 10/26/11
OMFG VC! I want your programming fingers in or around my mouth OnO
Quote:
Originally Posted by Storn at 3:03 PM
We have so many batches open. Its like a backlog clearance sale. ALL FILES MUST GO!!
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Originally Posted by ToonE156 at 11:07 PM
You've never felt intimacy until you've practiced Jiu Jitsu ground techniques with the only girl in class
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Old 06-4-2017, 09:23 AM   #224
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Default Re: jTWG LXXXI I Got Nothin' Game Thread

Hi I slept well.

Thoughts:

Haku went full 1-on-1 vs XelNya when I was pressuring him (Haku) a lot for info. That being said he'd know we would potentially be at least 2 against him, which to me sounds risky (please help on this?) for a wolf.

Andy no clue.

Rapta I want to say would be a great liar if he is actually wolf. At first he said he was ok with lynching XelNya and agreed with my statement (I believe) to lynch Haku next day, then agreed that his vote was probably a mistake after XelNya's post; if he's unsure what to do as wolf, this is it. Also he just agreed on Haku's strat which, if they're both wolves and he doesn't quite know where he's going, makes a whole lot of sense.

Rapta wolf & Haku wolf : Most plausible so far I think, Only if H&H is PR
Rapta town & Haku wolf : Only if H&H is Wolf or the worst VT rofl
Rapta wolf & haku town : Only if H&H is PR
Rapta town & haku town : Only if H&H is Wolf

Sanzath not agreeing with mass claim makes me think he's town by trying to make sure we don't get tricked into some wolfy strat. I'd like to hear more on that, it could push Haku towards wolf imo.

H&H... idk. I think I'd wait for opinions from other people concerning mass claim and sanzath's logic, Haku is reaaally pushing that strat and I don't like that one bit. We Do have time. For now I can accept H&H being PR and trying to come up with some kind of weird strat lmao.

WV, hmm, he was curious as to why Haku thought I was wolf, and Also went kind of against Haku's idea fearing it could fail. I think WV is town.


So that'd leave:

Haku & Rapta WOLF
Andy & Sanz & WV & H&H & Myself TOWN

Please debate
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Old 06-4-2017, 09:35 AM   #225
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Default Re: jTWG LXXXI I Got Nothin' Game Thread

Haku, if we vote Rapta, you in ?
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Old 06-4-2017, 10:43 AM   #226
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Default Re: jTWG LXXXI I Got Nothin' Game Thread

Alright why do you think hnh is town
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Old 06-4-2017, 11:18 AM   #227
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Default Re: jTWG LXXXI I Got Nothin' Game Thread

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Alright why do you think hnh is town
Was gonna post some more thoughts but that will have to wait until I have a reply from everybody on my previous big post. Will not be answering questions until then.
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Old 06-4-2017, 11:53 AM   #228
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Default Re: jTWG LXXXI I Got Nothin' Game Thread

Just caught up. Gonna charge my phone and do some stuff with the family before giving a good reply.

H&H seems like he's trying to claim PR, but doesn't really know how. Overall his play feels kinda wishy-washy and I'd be fine lynching him as of right now.

I think the massclaim is probably not the best idea for town, because it gives the wolves the targets they want to find. It's usually best to make them work for those kills I would think.

Haku is trending more town than before, but I wouldn't put deep wolfing past him. More stuff later.
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Old 06-4-2017, 01:06 PM   #229
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Default Re: jTWG LXXXI I Got Nothin' Game Thread

I did some maths. Assuming a few things (lynching at random, town PRs targeting at random and wolves night killing at random), if we don't mass claim today, we only come out to about 11% chance of a PR getting conclusive info on a wolf tonight.

I'll side with Haku on this one, I think it's much more valuable to remove 2 towns from our lynch pool today.
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Old 06-4-2017, 01:19 PM   #230
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Default Re: jTWG LXXXI I Got Nothin' Game Thread

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I did some maths. Assuming a few things (lynching at random, town PRs targeting at random and wolves night killing at random), if we don't mass claim today, we only come out to about 11% chance of a PR getting conclusive info on a wolf tonight.

I'll side with Haku on this one, I think it's much more valuable to remove 2 towns from our lynch pool today.
You should post your maths, not only the results.
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Old 06-4-2017, 01:35 PM   #231
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Default Re: jTWG LXXXI I Got Nothin' Game Thread

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You should post your maths, not only the results.
formatting, gimme a few minutes
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Old 06-4-2017, 01:54 PM   #232
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Default Re: jTWG LXXXI I Got Nothin' Game Thread

Code:
Day 1
5 towns (2 of which are PR) vs 2 wolves = 5(2PR):2
lynching at random gives a 2/7 chance to lynch a wolf, 3/7 to lynch a VT and 2/7 to lynch a PR
    
    -Lynch Wolf: (2/7)
    Night 1
    5(2PR):1
    Wolf has a 2/5 chance to kill a PR, 3/5 chance to kill a VT
    
        -Nightkill VT: (3/5)
        4(2PR):1
        The PR who isn't blocked has a 1/5 chance to have targeted the right person
        
        -Nightkill PR: (2/5)
        4(1PR):1
        There's a 1/2 chance that the blocked PR was killed, and a 1/5 chance from there that the unblocked PR targeted the right person
        
    --> [3/5 * 1/5] + [2/5 * 1/2 * 1/5] =  3/25 + 1/25 = 4/25 (16%) to get conclusive info in this scenario

    -Lynch VT: (3/7)
    Night 1
    4(2PR):2
    Wolves have a 1/2 chance to kill a PR, 1/2 chance to kill VT
    
        -Nightkill VT: (1/2)
        3(2PR):2
        The PR who isn't blocked has a 1/5 chance to have targeted at the right person
        
        -Nightkill PR: (1/2)
        3(1PR):2
        There's a 1/2 chance that the blocked PR was killed, and a 1/5 chance from there that the unblocked PR targeted the right person
        
    --> [1/2 * 1/5] + [1/2 * 1/2 * 1/5] = 1/10 + 1/20 = 3/20 (15%) to get conclusive info in this scenario
        
    -Lynch PR: (2/7)
    Night 1
    4(1PR):2
    Wolves will 100% kill using their immune wolf, no conclusive info in this scenario
    
--> [2/7 * 16%] + [3/7 * 16%] + [2/7 * 0%] = 11% chance to get conclusive info
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Old 06-4-2017, 01:56 PM   #233
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Default Re: jTWG LXXXI I Got Nothin' Game Thread

I'm also not accounting for situations like the Watcher watching the victim, the Tracker targeting the victim and the Watcher-immune wolf being used for the kill.
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Old 06-4-2017, 02:00 PM   #234
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Default Re: jTWG LXXXI I Got Nothin' Game Thread

Note that mass claim also solve conflicts between players because it's forcing certain players to be 100% town and we can assume many things from that conclusion.

It's also clearing any situation where the wolf team claim themselves to be the Tracker/Watcher (this scenario could happen tomorrow if we mislynch because another mislynch will end the game).

The advantage heavily outweight the 1/5 chance to target the right wolf who is doing the kill on a town player.

The information of the visit can also soft clear players if nothing happened. (it's still risky if you somehow visited the immune wolf vs your PR role)
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Old 06-4-2017, 02:05 PM   #235
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Default Re: jTWG LXXXI I Got Nothin' Game Thread

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I think the massclaim is probably not the best idea for town, because it gives the wolves the targets they want to find. It's usually best to make them work for those kills I would think.
I want you to realize that if we mislynch this phase, it's already mylo and the game is in danger of ending already.

We're not in a big game right now. Since the first phase ended way too early, I don't see how else you will magically find your 2 wolves without some sort of insurance.

Note that both PRs claiming will also leave 1 PR alive tomorrow and the entire game will be centered around the other players who are not in that pool.
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Old 06-4-2017, 02:07 PM   #236
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Default Re: jTWG LXXXI I Got Nothin' Game Thread

Another note; We still get 1 PR who will do a check knowing who the other PR is so that will also boost his own chance to actually target the right player.
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Old 06-4-2017, 02:12 PM   #237
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Default Re: jTWG LXXXI I Got Nothin' Game Thread

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Another note; We still get 1 PR who will do a check knowing who the other PR is so that will also boost his own chance to actually target the right player.
As I said before, if both PRs are known, the Watcher-immune wolf can safely kill the Tracker, or the Tracker-immune wolf can safely kill the Watcher. Unless the wolves do something else, the surviving PR won't get anything.
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Old 06-4-2017, 02:14 PM   #238
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Default Re: jTWG LXXXI I Got Nothin' Game Thread

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As I said before, if both PRs are known, the Watcher-immune wolf can safely kill the Tracker, or the Tracker-immune wolf can safely kill the Watcher. Unless the wolves do something else, the surviving PR won't get anything.
Mass claiming helps solve town not wolves. But solving town we can know who the wolves are
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Old 06-4-2017, 02:16 PM   #239
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Default Re: jTWG LXXXI I Got Nothin' Game Thread

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Mass claiming helps solve town not wolves. But solving town we can know who the wolves are
What do you do in a counterclaim scenario ?
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Old 06-4-2017, 02:16 PM   #240
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Default Re: jTWG LXXXI I Got Nothin' Game Thread

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As I said before, if both PRs are known, the Watcher-immune wolf can safely kill the Tracker, or the Tracker-immune wolf can safely kill the Watcher. Unless the wolves do something else, the surviving PR won't get anything.
Oh, good point.

I guess they can kill one and assign the kill to the other role making both PRs useless.

I still think they should claim so we never lynch them by mistake and for solving conflicts because we're just blindly targeting players at this point.
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