TWG XXIX Crack Dens and Avenging Angels

[MiniNeo]

I agree with you all's decision. Me having two phantom is going to not benefit the humans down the road.

Mini

[Tasselfoot]

Uhm... if deemed needed, I'll list who like to be invisible... as I have the advantage of knowing who they are. Not that this is a big advantage.

On the front of Mini... let me expand for you Talisman (plus, this most certainly does not get you off the hook)... this is the full convo I had with Iggy, where I go on to explain things in more detail for him:


iggy911mc: glad to see that you've considered mini and talis lynch prospects XD
*** Auto-response sent to iggy911mc: Arcade games with rankings! http://www.ffrcade.com
TasselFoot: why
iggy911mc: sarcasm mostly, ive been talking about them day 1 and 2
TasselFoot: oh. i don't think mini is a wolf at all.
iggy911mc: and no one has really said anything about it (cept on mini but it was for other reasonings)
TasselFoot: my reasons for wanting him lynched were purely statistically related
iggy911mc: well if he lives we still have 2 days left right? and if one of those days he dies, then we get another day, is that how it works?
TasselFoot: no.
TasselFoot: we have 2 days left, no matter what. his 2nd phantom single-handedly cost us a lynch.
TasselFoot: if somehow he gets wolfed, then we get that lynch back.
iggy911mc: so since we're dead after 2 days anyways why waste the lynch?
TasselFoot: did you not read my convo with blah?
TasselFoot: i hate having to repeat myself
iggy911mc: i did but didnt commit it to memory
iggy911mc: ill check it dont worry XD
TasselFoot: well this is a rather important thing to remember, if you're going to ask me about it
TasselFoot: PLUS it directly effects the game in a major way.
iggy911mc: ok so u refer to the percentage part yes? bc im not seeing what ur meaning
TasselFoot: yes.
TasselFoot: statistics would say that we lynch mini today so that we have the day 4/5 lynches to work with instead of the day 3/4 lynches.
TasselFoot: since we have more information to work with on days 4/5 than days 3/4
TasselFoot: the more i think about it, the more i know i'm correct that lynching mini today is the correct play.
iggy911mc: thats a good point but why not wait until tomorrow only bc then another person will be wolfed (raises percentage)
iggy911mc: but u would HAVE to get him that day or game over
TasselFoot: why wait until tomorrow? did you completely ignore what i just said.
TasselFoot: today is day 3. we have more information to make a correct lynch on day 4 than on day 3.
TasselFoot: day 3 has the least info to work with of the 3 remaining lynches (minimum).
TasselFoot: so therefore, if a lynch is going to be wasted... which it is... then it should be day 3.
TasselFoot: here is an example:
iggy911mc: ok i got it
TasselFoot: you have 10 people... and have to go 10 miles in 1 hour. only, 1 of the 10 is wounded. would you kill him now, so that the remaining 9 can make it the 10 miles in 1 hour? or wait 30 minutes to see if the guy can tough it out, only to realize he can't and kill him then.
iggy911mc: but i guess i was just thinking that since everybody is all over the place that after night 3 wolf we would find a wolf better but i see what your saying now
TasselFoot: so killing the guy now is day 3. killing him after 30 minutes is day 4. and not killing him is day 5... only if you DON'T kill him, you KNOW you won't make it and therefore all 10 die.
TasselFoot: since i'm fairly confident that the humans are ****ed (and i have been since day 1... blah and i discussed this over dinner)... i'm considering things in a fairly negative perspective.
TasselFoot: that of that we WON'T lynch a wolf in the next 2 lynches... or if we do, it will be a big part of luck.
TasselFoot: but the best chance of getting lucky will be on day 5.
TasselFoot: when it will likely be 4 humans and 3 wolves.
TasselFoot: all make sense now?
iggy911mc: yes
iggy911mc: sooo i guess my next question is why havent you voted him yet?
TasselFoot: check the thread
iggy911mc: lol owned
iggy911mc: but hey ill drink to that post
*** "iggy911mc" signed off at Tue Apr 04 00:11:22 2006.



If you already understand why you should kill Mini today, then ignore the above convo (haha, sucks for you if you've already read it). If you don't understand why you should kill Mini... go back and re-read the convo and every post I've made to explain why he should be killed. If it does not make logical sense to you at this point, you should be kicked in the testicles.

Also, nobody can deny the fact that my logic is correct, and therefore, Mini MUST be lynched today to best secure a human victory. The only way this doesn't hold true is if we think the angel will get a guard OR mini will get wolfed. I don't hold either of those at a very high percentage.

[Tasselfoot]

Heh... Mini just insta'd himself.

11 players, 6 votes for insta. Mini has 5 real votes + 1.0000001 phantoms = 6.00001 votes = insta.

Kinda didn't want that this quickly. Meh.

[MiniNeo]

;_; I thought phantoms doesn't count.

EDIT CAUSE IM DEAD: meant to say phantoms, not instalynches.

[mead1]

Rofl, Insta.

Well, Talisman was out for blood that day. He was furious. He was a force to be reckoned with that day, but for all of his work, no real suspicions arose. Tass came up with the idea of knocking off Mini, since he wasn't helping much, and tomorrow they would know more. This idea was X-TREME CONTROVERSIAL, but enough of them agreed in the end. They decided, due to the X-TREMITY of the day, he would half to die in some X-TREME way. Snowboards, half-pipes, surfing, bad ska music. They strapped both his feet to a skateboard, and all yelled "SKATE OR DIE, SKATE OR DIE!" He was then pushed on to a mondo-vert-ramp, where he skated to the top, and was about to do a 900-indy-kickflip-little-lord-faulteroy-tea-and-crumpets-mctwist, when he realized how much skateboarding sucked. Unfortunately for him, he realized this in midair, and fell down. Also, unfortunately for him, at that exact moment, the group pulled away the vert-ramp, revealing a pit of lava. Swimming in the lava were gignatic Dinosaurs who all had shark-heads. Mini fell, and was quickly eaten/melted/dismembered.

Mini was instalynched. Since it was at a weird hour, I'm giving the wolves until noon tomorrow. I doubt it will take that long, but just in case.

[mead1]

After their extreme day, everyone was ready for bed. Iggy collapsed on the floor of his room, only to awaken in a room with a wolf, and Vice President Cheyney. The Wolf nudged the VP and said, "Here's your new hunting buddy, Dick. He's a little quiet, but I think he'll do." Iggy noticed he was gagged as well as bound. The VP nodded and said "Oh that's quite all right, I just need someone to get my six. These days I'm having seeing problems, it's all the more dangerous. Squirrels can turn on you if they're only wounded. Dangerous little varmints." The VP handed the Wolf a large stack of Bills, and pushed Iggy up, and out of the room. Needless to say, he was never heard from again.

Iggy Has been wolfed. It is now Day 4. Day 4 lasts until Thursday at Nine PM EST.

[Tasselfoot]

*sigh* Blah, Talisman, and I all agreed that Iggy would die.

I tried looking for TPS online to tell him to have the angel guard Iggy, but apparently when TPS was on (for like... an hour), I was playing online poker and wasn't paying attention.

****. I looked at the night 3 wolfing... since it was only 3 hours. And basically the ONLY conclusive evidence it gave was that Iggy wasn't online. Aka, Iggy was human. This ****ing sucks. Such an obvious kill, and it wasn't protected against. You dropped the ball TPS.

BUT... it makes me look away from Talisman. Considering we discussed it late last night, it would seem to be counter-productive to then kill Iggy, especially when we considering the angel (I believe) and considering the suspicion already on him.

[Tasselfoot]

Players left:

Tass
Talisman
Blah
Hans
Kilga
Tasuke
TPS
Jurs
Afro

IMO, Hans/Kilga then Afro then Jurs then Tasuke then Talisman then Blah then TPS.

[talisman]

well, like tass said, not entire unpredictable nor unpredicted. I don't know if I would be so harsh on tps, as I think you even mentioned yourself last night that this past night would have been the night to go after him.

my suspicion lists mirrors tass' for the most part (I would have hans as an outright frontrunner) except replacing my name with his.

got alot of hw to do tonight. Will post more in depth later/after it's done.

[Kilgamayan]

Goddamnit I hate being wrong. This is the second time I've been publicly suspicious of someone and then they were killed the next night. I have to wonder if my thought processes have been wrong.

Looking back at the list I made, the person who stands out on it right now is Afro. I was suspicious of him before but I kinda fell away from him in favor of several other people.

[blahblah18]

I think Tasuke has to be more suspicious then Jurs on that list, only because has he done annnnything? I dunno, they're both useless to me. I still don't entirely understand how talisman is above reproach.. I feel that one of me/him/Tass would just HAVE to be a wolf... it isn't me. I don't think it is tass, it might end up being, but i don't think so... I dunno, it just seems that where are all the wolves if we're all excluded. BTW, TPS I'll assume mini was human, but if he wasn't? Can you let us know?

[Tasselfoot]

IMO, best scenario for wolves are

Kilga, Afro, Tasuke
Kilga, Afro, Jurs
Hans, Afro, Tasuke

maybe throw Talisman in there. *shrugs*. Kilga, Hans, Afro?

Kilga's most recent post jumped him on my suspect list... his whole "wth, everyone I jump on is getting wolfed, olololol"

[Tasselfoot]

Margh... I see every scenario I put up as Afro... that is overweighing my feelings towards Afro.

Pretty much Kilga, Hans, Afro, Tasuke, Jurs... my money is all 3 wolves are in this group.

[talisman]

I agree with tass about kilga's post raising him a little bit on the suspicion ranks... kilga has this tendency to make these self-referential remarks that always seem kinda sketchy. I've jumped on him before about it, usually day one or two, and actually usually been wrong, but in this game it seems like they're starting to add up a little bit more than what's ignorable. For example his first post with the "I hate when the host only sends out pms to the special roles" and then later with the "man I hate trying now I see why I normally don't" and then this most recent post with the "huh people I think are suspicious are getting wolfed".

All of that is fairly insignifcant in my mind to the case against hans that I made yesterday and he's still by far my number one suspect.

Also, I think it's interesting that kilga I think mentioned hans as his number two suspect yesterday (after iggy) and yet today brings up afro... who was way down at number six on his list.

[Kilgamayan]

Originally Posted by talisman

Also, I think it's interesting that kilga I think mentioned hans as his number two suspect yesterday (after iggy) and yet today brings up afro... who was way down at number six on his list.

I'm trying to go in the other direction. Since the people I think are wolves keep not being wolves, maybe the people I don't think are wolves are. Of those people, Afro gave me the most reason in the past to believe he's a wolf.

[HansSky]

In Tasuke's case, I would think that if he were a wolf he would be more active than...doing nothing. Just to try and keep everyone off his ass. Surely his fellow wolves would be telling him that inactivity is a quick road to the noose, and that they would NEVER allow this to happen. I'm almost positive that Tasuke is human.

[Afrobean]

I like how you guys are working off of gut this late in the game.

I've done nothing.

[Tasselfoot]

Hey Afro... you recall the part of the game where there is no seer? So there is no confirmed information except for TPS' psychic info, which he still hasn't posted because he's a lazy ****.

Yea... so EVERYTHING is 'gut'. Way to make a compelling case for yourself.

[Afrobean]

Well, in most cases, there would be some sort of evidence or something that I could argue my side against.

It's possible for the best wordsmiths to argue their way out of some damning evidence. Even if I were the most eloquent of anyone in FFR, I'd be unnable to talk you out of wanting to lynch me.

The only thing I can see that would be worthy of a vote is my lack of many posts. However, I am, by far, less guilty of this than many.

And Tass, I'd think that you of all people would at least attempt to justify something. At least BS an excuse. I'd rather be lynched on false pretenses than no pretense.

[Tasselfoot]

How many votes you got there chief? Close to an insta? On the chopping block even?

Are you even listed as a #1 suspect by anyone? Most public opinion has gone more to Hans and Kilga with you 3rd. Might wanna simmer down there. You're starting to sound like Hans did 2 games ago when he thought I was going to get him lynched day 1, only I never had any intention of that.