Old 08-23-2018, 01:40 PM   #2261
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Default Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

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Originally Posted by blindreper1179 View Post
well well well, I actually didn't expect that. Well done.

You're still wrong though.
You see, prec did all that work and all you have to say is 'you are wrong' - you brought up one point that prec made, but it wasn't what prec was talking about then didn't answer anything else, or fight it, or anything. You shrugged it off then talked about something else.
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Old 08-23-2018, 01:42 PM   #2262
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Default Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

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I swapped because w_c was just sitting there watching the EOD happen. He was clearly there because he was posting. It was shady, man.
ive kinda lost motivation to go after you so if your a wolf then good job. I could talk about what shoulda-coulda happened at that eod but that doesn't really mean anything.
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Old 08-23-2018, 01:46 PM   #2263
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Default Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

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That implies freezin is a full chance if tps is zzzzzz, which I wouldn't say is a full chance
bruh

this robs the wolves of a nightkill by giving town 2 more chances at killing wolves (about that many, at least) than town normally has

call it whatever you will but you're 100000% doing it wrong if you don't take the extra chance (or whatever the fuck you want to call it) to kill wolves
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Disregarding Season 1 (because communities were able to send more than one player back then), here is a ranking of community performances in the Mafia Championship:
+3 finale appearances
Flash Flash Revolution (4 finale spots with 1 sub + 1 wildcard spot)
Dark Lord Potter (3 finale spots + 2 wildcards with 1 sub)
MafiaManiac (3 finale spots + 1 wildcard spot)
Super Mafia All Stars (3 finale spots + 1 wildcard spot)
GameFAQs (3 finale spots)
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Old 08-23-2018, 01:53 PM   #2264
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Default Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

hey cel do you still doubt sunfan
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Old 08-23-2018, 01:53 PM   #2265
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Default Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

*as confirmed
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Old 08-23-2018, 01:54 PM   #2266
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Default Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

yes and this debacle t b h isnt helping
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Old 08-23-2018, 01:55 PM   #2267
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Default Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

Similar vibes to freezin in the fe game
Even if freezin was somewhat confirmed he was fishier than a wharf
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Old 08-23-2018, 02:02 PM   #2268
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Default Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

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Similar vibes to freezin in the fe game
Even if freezin was somewhat confirmed he was fishier than a wharf
this is like when I was talking to you in the survivor game where I would talk about who we should lynch and why and you didn't want to listen to a word I said

I don't know what to say to you, and I'm not sure we're going to be able to see eye-to-eye here.

This is something I have learned from years of playing this stupid game; if you have more chances/opportunities/whatever to kill wolves than you normally would, you take it.

One scenario involves a modkill on a specific player (yes, I know that we can't control this), a blue being lynched but getting a chance to shoot (this counts because he could be lying and also because it resets what would ordinarily be an even number of players back to an odd number) and his shot can kinda-sorta be counted as an extra lynch (if you want to count it as less than a lynch, whatever, a town is looking at the remaining players and killing one of them, and its pretty good for town regardless of whatever terminology you want to give it).

This far, far, far, far, far outweighs the alternative world of yes, having an extra day phase, but having less whatevers to try and kill wolves with.
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FUN FACT #3
Disregarding Season 1 (because communities were able to send more than one player back then), here is a ranking of community performances in the Mafia Championship:
+3 finale appearances
Flash Flash Revolution (4 finale spots with 1 sub + 1 wildcard spot)
Dark Lord Potter (3 finale spots + 2 wildcards with 1 sub)
MafiaManiac (3 finale spots + 1 wildcard spot)
Super Mafia All Stars (3 finale spots + 1 wildcard spot)
GameFAQs (3 finale spots)
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Old 08-23-2018, 02:06 PM   #2269
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Default Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

im going to class I will be back later
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FUN FACT #3
Disregarding Season 1 (because communities were able to send more than one player back then), here is a ranking of community performances in the Mafia Championship:
+3 finale appearances
Flash Flash Revolution (4 finale spots with 1 sub + 1 wildcard spot)
Dark Lord Potter (3 finale spots + 2 wildcards with 1 sub)
MafiaManiac (3 finale spots + 1 wildcard spot)
Super Mafia All Stars (3 finale spots + 1 wildcard spot)
GameFAQs (3 finale spots)
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Old 08-23-2018, 02:23 PM   #2270
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Default Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

imma talk this out maybe this will help me with greg

lets say im shit at this game and hes a wolf, and he pulled a fast one
I feel like his partners would only be funny/blind here, for what appears to be his willingness to kill anyone else or be like "sure i guess they can die"
because town greg here doesn't confirm two people like this in this situation, one sure but two nah.

If this is the case, freezin dies in the night and takes someone out, having a fake confirmed go hard saying funny/freezin are town, freezin wouldnt kill one of them, thus creating a misslynch.

Here are freezin's reads, which perfectly line up here:
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Originally Posted by FreezinIce View Post
Town:

Blind

Townlean:

Sunfan
Funny

Let's say we misslynch today if fake greg hard protects his teammates like this, down to 8. Freezin dies, 7, he kills outside of funny/blind 6. That's gg, we loose. (Also it explains why funny is suddenly going after me today, since it's an all or nothing i feel like)

Devils advocate, lets say there is a chance that one of the two between funny/blind is town and not a wolf, then that would mean the 3rd is someone like TPS? I guess? Or prec? I don't have anything to back that up though, but someone i guess who must be then read by freezin as town so greg and whoever wouldn't have to worry about it.

If greg is a wolf here, that would make perfect sense why he would go for proving how he is town by what we thought was a DBP soft, and my initial read on it was wrong. (I looked this over to see how DBP's soft isn't greenchecking sunfan and i still see it as a greencheck on sunfan so fuck me)

However, there is one element that could make that work

This is such a fucking low % chance but what if freezin and sunfan are wolves, and the setup is really BBTTTT* - since no evidence of a SK i'm gonna assume BBTTTTT

That would mean there is a busdriver that falsely checked sunfan i guessed during n2 then, pretty much making this situation gg for us either way. There is such a fucking microscopic chance that this is real, but if it is and this is real at least i made it for this post so hello dead chat i did something right. I have no idea who the 3rd would be here, someone probably seperate who agrees with both freezin and sunfan not fully but more like, half as in "sure ill follow" and ind comes to mind but that could be wrong.


====================================

Now let's say sunfan is town here and the check is real and im not in tinfoil la la land.

1) Let's say sunfan is actually correct and blind/funny are town, and also freezin is real. For me then it's cel/ind/prec. BBKTTT* - we have a misslynch, which might be me and at least to freezin's current reads we are in a better off shape to hitting i think if he still dies in the night. If freezin doesn't die in the night and someone like funny/sun/blind dies then i think we win.

2) Sunfan is real but he is wrong on blind/funny. I think town looses, and I'm not sure if there is anything i can say for greg to change his mind. Funny would be playing a great wolf game and blind is not lol. 3rd would probably be a wild card then, i wouldn't be surprised if anyone fit in with them. If only one of them is a wolf and not the other, then i'm really lost and kinda got nothing. I'll need to think about it more.
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Old 08-23-2018, 02:24 PM   #2271
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Default Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

i hope my logic makes sense since nothing else has apparently to anyone

im kinda on low motivation im still tryin
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Old 08-23-2018, 02:34 PM   #2272
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Default Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

god i hope im right lol
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Old 08-23-2018, 02:37 PM   #2273
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Default Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

I feel like that there is one between blind/prec, with blind being the wolf. I don't see them being a pair at this point and I don't think prec makes that post as a bus. I've played with prec as a wolf and that's not his playstyle. I think funny also defended blind here and went against prec a bit which is interesting
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Old 08-23-2018, 02:40 PM   #2274
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Default Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

There is also a world where funny/blind are wolves and greg is town and i think we still loose if that's the case. I need to iso the posts between them to see if this could be a thing
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Old 08-23-2018, 02:51 PM   #2275
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Default Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

Here are all the posts between funny/blind

D1 early
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Originally Posted by blindreper1179 View Post
Fg just says she's wolf, ok bye no matter what. And everything she's said is blah.
D3 early

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Funny looks dirty with those votes now that we know dbp is town.
D3 Mid

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Originally Posted by Funnygurl555 View Post
yo i havent thrown a t-force vote yet thanks blind
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funny

/not
I excluded the first one about funny asking blind about the movie thing blind was doing
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Old 08-23-2018, 02:54 PM   #2276
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Default Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

okay, i've got a lot of projects to work on due soon and NEED to not come in thread for a few hours to get this done. i'll be back in a few hours.

I'mma ninja you cel # c o n v i e n e n t
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Old 08-23-2018, 03:28 PM   #2277
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Default Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

reading the last 10 pages and then post incoming
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Old 08-23-2018, 03:36 PM   #2278
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Default Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

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so, as celery pointed out, there is a potential problem with the massclaim is TPS doesn't participate, so there's a few different things that can happen

TPS hits 10 contentful posts (I don't know where the bar is but there's no way its higher than this given blind and precarious were in the teens on d1 but didn't get the message TPS got) but never claims his role:
Lynch him. No reason for him to be the sole holdout here when it could mean the life of a blue, and we can't let a wolf get away with denying town that info.

----------------------------------------

TPS hits 10 contentful posts, claims his role. We resolve as necessary. We probably just have a normal phase if this happens.

----------------------------------------

TPS doesn't post any more, we expect him to be modkilled, so we lynch Freezin. There's no way to verify whether or not Freezin is telling the truth for sure if we are missing a piece, but it doesn't matter too much if TPS is getting modkilled anyway, and here's why.

Currently 9 alive, 6 town and 3 wolves looks like the most likely scenario by far.
9 alive: tps is modkilled, freezin is lynched (The modkill happens before Freezin shoots assuming he is the vengeful)
tps could be a wolf, freezin could also be a wolf (a lot less likely), and if freezin is a vengeful like he says he is, then town gets a shot at killing a wolf with his ChAoS sHoT.

What is beneath is the worst possible scenario where town can continue onwards.

If Tps is town, freezin is vengeful, then we're at 7 (4 town 3 wolves) alive, and freezin has to both shoot (he can apparently choose not to) and hit a wolf in order for the game to continue, which brings us to 6 alive, then the wolves kill a town bringing us to 5 (3 town 2 wolves), which is still workable, just not ideal.

The only scenario where town outright loses is one where TPS is town, Freezin is Vanilla Town and made a stupid play, and then town loses when the wolves make a nightkill, but this doesn't seem too likely given how early freezin was softing.
I more or less agree with the gist of this analysis.

Freezin can't be town under the existing known seven-roll structure, since it necessitates a serial killer. We've had only one night kill the first two nights, and right now we're assuming no P or H roles, so even if a theoretical SK (a) chose 1-shot bulletproof and (b) was hit with it, we would have had two kills at least one night.

So a lot comes down to what Tps claims, given how a claim could change things mechanically. Even my case against Blind needs to be secondary, since it's still merely a case; this is an opportunity to potentially catch a wolf indisputably (I don't believe there's technically any way to fully clear anyone under this framework).

Tps' lack of a claim, much moreso than his inactivity, thus becomes an issue. Since there's no evidence to support the existence of a serial killer, 6:3 is almost certainly the current player ratio, which means the following.



1. Scum have 1 NK; this holds true no matter what the actual game conditions are.

2. Unless Tps is actually a P or H, we have no capacity to stop the NK.

Therefore,

3. A normal mislynch, with no Vengeful/Modkill/other scenarios therefore takes us to 4:3 tomorrow.

4. A normal mislynch + town modkill, or a Vengeful mislynch + Vengekill on a town player ends the game instantly.



Right now, Tps hasn't been modkilled; absent a claim, we would need to decide whether to encourage a modkill, or lynch him.

Assuming a town Tps, the modkill would reduce us to 5:3, which would force either a no lynch or a 3/8 chance of hitting scum (without yet accounting for the complication of a potential Vengeful Freezin). Lynching Town-Tps would end the day, but would take us to a 4:3 scenario tomorrow--in other words, a 3/7 chance of hitting scum. This is an improved ratio, but it could also be achieved via modkill+no lynch; additionally, any 4:3 scenario runs the risk of a single town misvote allowing the wolves to hammer.

Of those scenarios, modkill + no lynch seems the most palatable to me in a vacuum: it maximizes overall discussion time and information gain (we could still evaluate the implications of Tps' flip today), and allows us to make a decision re: Freezin. If Tps were modkilled and his flip doesn't disprove Freezin's claim, we would have to weigh the advantages of no lynch vs lynching Freezin. Modkill + NL takes us to a 4:3 tomorrow in the worst case (town-Tps) scenario; Modkill Town-Tps + Vengeful-Freezin means everything would come down to the Vengekill. If it hits scum, we would be at 3:2 tomorrow. If it doesn't, it's game over.

If Tps' flip or claim were to disprove Freezin's claim, that would obviously simplify things enormously.

The problem with looking at things in a vacuum is that ignores all prior case-building and discussion; I'd still push for a Vengekill on Blind for example, the potential extra benefit being the slight chance of catching a wolf-Freezin not exposed by a Tps flip. There are a couple possibilities at night if we go the lynch or MK+NL route, but none seem that useful, and they potentially allow for gamesmanship on the wolves' part.

Under this framework (and assuming Tps doesn't condemn Freezin), I feel like the best scenarios are, in order

1. Tps claims, ideally well before the end of the day
2. Modkill Tps + lynch Vengeful Freezin + Vengekill the most likely suspect
2(b). Modkill Tps + NL (the downside here is that if Freezin is Vengeful, it'll likely never actually get the chance to activate)
3. Lynch Tps
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Old 08-23-2018, 03:36 PM   #2279
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Default Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

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reading the last 10 pages and then post incoming
Claim first.
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Old 08-23-2018, 03:46 PM   #2280
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Default Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

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I feel like that there is one between blind/prec, with blind being the wolf. I don't see them being a pair at this point and I don't think prec makes that post as a bus. I've played with prec as a wolf and that's not his playstyle. I think funny also defended blind here and went against prec a bit which is interesting
U said u think earlier blind is always town what changed
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FUN FACT #3
Disregarding Season 1 (because communities were able to send more than one player back then), here is a ranking of community performances in the Mafia Championship:
+3 finale appearances
Flash Flash Revolution (4 finale spots with 1 sub + 1 wildcard spot)
Dark Lord Potter (3 finale spots + 2 wildcards with 1 sub)
MafiaManiac (3 finale spots + 1 wildcard spot)
Super Mafia All Stars (3 finale spots + 1 wildcard spot)
GameFAQs (3 finale spots)
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