01-7-2011, 07:29 PM | #1 |
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Confuzzled....
My mom told me about some dude who won the lottery three times by picking the numbers that were drawn the least. (I assume he made a tally of all the numbers that were drawn to find this out)
Would this actually work or is it totally random?
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01-7-2011, 07:42 PM | #2 |
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Re: Confuzzled....
The lottery is random there's no way to really help your odds. I had actually just read an article on this a few days ago but I can't seem to find it again (it was featured on yahoo) But basically they debunked all the lottery myths like buying in larger cities vs going where there's less people, etc. But really there's no way to increase your odds whether you play the most picked or least picked numbers it's still completely random.
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01-7-2011, 07:46 PM | #3 |
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Re: Confuzzled....
I find it weird because I have set up a list and so far I've gone back to End of June.
1 -xxxxossaJ 2 -xxxxoooJ 3 -xxxosaaJJ 4 -xxsaJ 5 -xxxxxxsssaa 6 -xxossaJ 7 -xxxossaaa 8 -xxxxxxoaaJJ 9 -xsaaJ 10-xxxxooaaa 11-xxxxxsssss 12-xxxxxxaaJ 13-xxxoossssaJJ 14-xosaJJ 15-xxooosaaJ 16-xxxooaaJ 17-xxxossJJ 18-osaJ 19-xxxsssJ 20-xxoosaaJ 21-xosa 22-xoaaa 23-xxxxxoa 24-xxJ 25-xxaa 26-xxssaaaaJJJ 27-xxxosaJ 28-xxxoaJ 29-xxxxooosJJJJ 30-xsssaJJ 31-xxssaJJ 32-xsJ 33-xxxxos 34-osJJJ 35-xxxxoosaJ 36-xxosaaJJJ 37-xxooaJJ 38-xxxxoJJ 39-xxxxs 40-xxxossaJJ 41-xxssaa 42-xosaJ 43-xxoJJ 44-xxosaJ 45-xxxxssssa 46-xxooss 47-xxxoaaJJ 48-ssJJ 49-xxxoosJJ Some numbers have been picked like 15 times while others have been picked like 4 or less times.
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01-7-2011, 08:24 PM | #4 |
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Re: Confuzzled....
Saw this on the news a while ago.
He has won the lottery 7 times. http://www.wesh.com/r/25443139/detail.html |
01-7-2011, 09:57 PM | #5 |
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Re: Confuzzled....
oh.
cool story bro. |
01-7-2011, 10:12 PM | #6 |
FFR Veteran
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Re: Confuzzled....
Look up the Gambler's Fallacy and the Law of Large Numbers and you'll see why this won't work and why "some numbers have been picked like 15 times while others have been picked like 4 or less times."
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01-8-2011, 11:53 AM | #7 |
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Re: Confuzzled....
I wouldn't mind winning it just once.
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01-8-2011, 12:18 PM | #8 |
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Re: Confuzzled....
My uncle has played the lottery every week, religiously, for over 15 years, and has never won.
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01-10-2011, 01:12 AM | #9 | |
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Re: Confuzzled....
^ spam -.- Anyways, love you, just because you used the word, confuzzled <3
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01-10-2011, 10:53 AM | #10 |
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Re: Confuzzled....
I play lottery and I'm always so surprised when I don't win.
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01-10-2011, 11:02 AM | #11 |
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Re: Confuzzled....
The people that do the math for lotteries know what they're doing, which is why lotteries make so much money. So yes, it's entirely random. These guys know exactly what the probability of winning is, which is why it's so -EV (expected value) to buy a ticket (unless the jackpot has built up to a sufficiently massive number).
The numbers are generated by random number generators, and while they are truly pseudo-random number generators at heart, they're impossible to distinguish from truly random generators. RNGs are also used in things like slot machines. The numbers are all equally likely to be picked. You'll see patterns in small samples, but across large samples there are no patterns. I did a project two years ago for a stats class where I had to accumulate all of the data for a particular Canadian lottery. I had years worth of winning numbers and thousands of samples, so yes, I can confirm it's entirely random. Now, if the numbers are arranged in order from smallest to largest, which they often are, the numbers in those specific positions are *not* entirely random, but this has to do with a probabilistic ordering effect and nothing to do with the randomness of the generator (e.g. the number in the first position is more likely to be 1 than any other number; however, picking 1 as your first number won't increase your odds of winning. If you can figure that one out, you've got a good grasp of statistics and probability). As for the man in question, he's just absurdly fortunate and probably doesn't understand probability.
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Last edited by Reach; 01-10-2011 at 11:14 AM.. |
01-10-2011, 11:15 AM | #12 |
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Re: Confuzzled....
Not trying to start something, but how on earth was that spam? The thread was about a guy who's won the lottery 7 times, and I commented with how my uncle has played for so long, and has never won, which adds to the fact of how amazing winning 7 times in such a short time period is.
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01-10-2011, 11:22 AM | #13 | |
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Re: Confuzzled....
Quote:
You're more likely to die on the way to cashing your ticket than you are to win in the first place. The fact is, even if your uncle played every week for the rest of his life, the odds of him never winning are still probably stacked 100 to 1. If someone bought 50 lotto max numbers a week for 5000 years, the probability of them winning once is about 15%. Terrible odds, and you would have wasted some 26 million dollars. Anyway, this guy that won 7 times won smaller lotteries where the probability is higher. Still, the chances of that happening 7 times is probably still a billion to one, but either way, that's why you don't see many people like him. He simply doesn't understand random number generation and suffers from conformational bias. That is, because his particular technique worked for him, he believes there's really something to it when it fact it worked because of dumb luck. It's an example of an illusory correlation and attempting it yourself will not increase the chances of winning the lottery.
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Last edited by Reach; 01-10-2011 at 11:37 AM.. |
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01-10-2011, 11:58 AM | #14 |
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Re: Confuzzled....
^^^ Plus, my uncle plays Texas Mega Millions lottery, which has way more ridiculous odds.
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01-10-2011, 02:25 PM | #15 |
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Re: Confuzzled....
Thanks, I thought it was completely random but you never know.
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