TWG CLXVII Game Thread How Was Awakening Reviewed

[Celirra]

Originally Posted by Soundwave-

I don't see inD being a likely mafia target.

There is probably a town who knows who the mafia target was.

Pretty sure a lot of people had InD as hard town, and many considered him to be putting good work in; isn't that someone who would make a good target?


that said I can see wolves not killing for mathematical reasons (aka I agree with what you were saying earlier)

[tiloco217]

I find it very unlikely that mafia would want to no kill last night. Bringing the game down to 8 players is really good because than the town goes from having 4 lynches to 3 lynches. If they kill last night and push a misslynch (which would only require 2 town votes for them to insta) than it's game over.

[tiloco217]

TBH I don't really want to work on a reads list atm. They are really dull and I don't feel like I get much out of them (I understand that everyone else benefits and I don't argue that I need to do it). I'll get one to you guys before I go to work at 11 tonight.

[Celirra]

Originally Posted by tiloco217

I find it very unlikely that mafia would want to no kill last night. Bringing the game down to 8 players is really good because than the town goes from having 4 lynches to 3 lynches. If they kill last night and push a misslynch (which would only require 2 town votes for them to insta) than it's game over.

1) inDheart
2) MixMasterLar
3) Celirra
4) Xiz
5) Tokzic
6) tiloco217
7) DarkManticoreX2
8) Wayward Vagabond
9) DaBackPack
10) Soundwave-

Unless they get two kills, they'd only be able to bring it down to 9, not 8 though?

[Soundwave-]

They still gave up a day for it.

[tiloco217]

Lol I just had the count wrong. Less town is better for mafia still but it's not impossible. Still find it pretty improbable that there were 4 (5) actions last night and mafia didn't try to kill.

[the sun fan]

Votecount:
tiloco (1)- Lar
Tokzic (1)- WV

[MixMasterLar]

Originally Posted by Wayward Vagabond

That sentence is a mess I'll reiterate after I get home from work

Short version: I didn't mean to insta blind, xiz and I just switched out votes at the same time

eh, games move fast when you have to manually F5 a thread. This is fair enough for now.

Originally Posted by Celirra

Hello boys and girls and friends,

use the color wheat again and I will vote you.

Originally Posted by inDheart

i also did some thinking about the setup because haku dying is still a little bizarre, and the reason might be related to role guessing more likely than name guessing, based on blind flipping Sumia. people would figure that a neighbor flipped so there has to be another one, is basically my thought process there, and haku's post speculating on what character the neighbor could be could also be a contributing factor

reasons this could be unlikely:
- game has nonstandard role names ("John Doe"?)
- tiloco has been able to claim powers openly and not die for it

if tiloco has a mystic power i'm not very surprised that the number would be high and i still don't feel great about trading clears for pelts

So what you are saying is, because wolves already saw a neighbor flip because of Flash they got that second kill on Haku?
Eh, that does explain why we don't seem to have another killing power. That also would punish the ever living shit out of mass claiming if true.
Til not dying from revealing his role doesn't surprise me because his role seems to change every time he posts about it, but any wolf worth their salt would have just used the regular ol' nightkil (I assume they have a standard NK action because even the mystery games have had those, seem like a safe assumption)

Originally Posted by Soundwave-

This is parity in the mathematical sense. Wolves can choose to no kill to control the mathematics of the end game. In a simple scenario even numbers of players favor wolves (hence the tactic being named after "parity") but in a mystery game roles that can prevent kills and how many kills there are at night are both factors as well.

Fucking what?
That literally makes no sense. No wolf would be like "Mathematically speaking, we should spare the lives of town and their adorable medic who will surely bring the wreckening upon us"

Like what the fuck are you smoking it's gotta be illegal and bad for your liver.

Originally Posted by Celirra

I think I see more wolf in Tokzic than DBP
and I think they're a decent T/W pair

I'm inclined to agree just solely from what EV was quoting, but DPB has basically fallen off the map and that's more of his wolf meta.
Maybe that shouldn't matter because he was doing his town tell early game but it still looks bad on him.

I think I would be a stickler for my reads and vote Tokzic over DBP at this point in the game though.

Originally Posted by tiloco217

I still think that's a good idea today btw because the worst case scenario is that I am mafia and town trades a kill on the investigative for me. Best case is I'm town and we get an investigative and mafia are basically forced to kill me.

Are you actually serious right now?

Originally Posted by tiloco217

2) If I try to say I saved someone then I have to confirm someone as town by outing my save and never give out the Mysic info. That is god awful play and I don't understand how this could even be a question. The only way I could ever do that is if I was mafia (and I totally would as mafia fyi)

See in normal games where you ain't lying out your ass, once you out you're suppose to hard clear everyone you can and leave that info. When you die, the other info checks out and we have confirmed towns that we know not to lynch. But I guess since you escaped fucking -two- nights as an outed blue you wouldn't understand the importance of rushing out the details would you?

Originally Posted by tiloco217

3) I wanted claims first because not knowing the number makes claiming much more risky for mafia. That being said I don't think there is any chance of me getting enough trust from town to make that strat effective. The number of actions used last night was 4 (5 including mine). This means over 50% of the game used actions last night. I don't see any world where mafia didn't make a kill with that number.

You seem really intent on finding that other medic and it concerns me.

Originally Posted by tiloco217

In short, do your homework before you claim but most likely a character guesser is going to have a really hard time trying to figure out who you are.

Here's a better idea: Don't fucking claim? Unless you feel like you may die don't out yourself. Sneak info out if you must.

Originally Posted by tiloco217

I expect the mafia made up 2 of our 4 (5) actions last night. that means there are 2 unaccounted for actions remaining. That is a lot of towns and we only need 5 for auto assuming 1 kp every night.

Why would you assume this considering we have no kills?

Originally Posted by tiloco217

Oh my save was on Indheart night 2 btw. Nothing much to say there.

So when you save people, people die
When you don't save people we get no deaths.
Mmmmmmmmmmmmmhmmmmmmmmmmmm

Originally Posted by tiloco217

This post ended up being a mess of thoughts trying to get in each other's way. I read back through it and everything makes sense to me but if you need some clarification don't hesitate to ask.

I won't.

Originally Posted by tiloco217

TBH I don't really want to work on a reads list atm.

Shouldn't even need to tell how I feel about this

[MixMasterLar]

Basically what I'm trying to say can be boiled down to this:

http://www.infinitelooper.com/?v=cFEPttl4WD8&p=n#/26;31


Too much makes no sense

[tiloco217]

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar

Are you actually serious right now?


See in normal games where you ain't lying out your ass, once you out you're suppose to hard clear everyone you can and leave that info. When you die, the other info checks out and we have confirmed towns that we know not to lynch. But I guess since you escaped fucking -two- nights as an outed blue you wouldn't understand the importance of rushing out the details would you?


You seem really intent on finding that other medic and it concerns me.


Here's a better idea: Don't fucking claim? Unless you feel like you may die don't out yourself. Sneak info out if you must.


Why would you assume this considering we have no kills?


So when you save people, people die
When you don't save people we get no deaths.
Mmmmmmmmmmmmmhmmmmmmmmmmmm


I won't.


Shouldn't even need to tell how I feel about this

In order:

Yes. That is the worst case scenario. That is what has to be evaluated by the other prs before the claim. Not a bad worst case and a really good best case. Very worth a claim

No idea what you mean here. I don't have a save to claim so I'd be "lying out my ass" by claiming I angel'd someone last night like Cel was suggesting. Not only would that be bad because I'm lying, I would have to out my save because why wouldn't I if I saved someone and then whoever I decided to say I had a save on would be confirmed for nothing. It is terrible play and I don't understand how it ever became a discussion.

Yes I'm intent on finding this other medic. I think it's a good idea for literally every role to claim today. We only need 5 towns and we have auto. That's not very hard with so many actions last night.

Same as the last point. You seem to think that the claiming punishment is based on the role itself but I highly doubt it. First off Sunfan mentioned that claiming specifically character name is bad. Secondly every fun game in DM that has some sort of mechanic to punish claiming is always based on the flavor of the role not the role itself. I'd imagine that holds true in other forms of mafia because that is a way to punish that makes sense.

At the time I thought there was no possibility of mafia not killing because I thought it gave us an extra lynch. Knowing that's not true it's a possibility that they no killed but one that I highly doubt. They would have to be ok with leaving me alive (the only way I'm ever dying at this point is if there's another claim I'm protecting btw) and be ok with there being an extra town around.

And what the fuck do you think that means? Do you think that I'm mafia, planned to go into this day with no kills and then not claim credit for the save. Like I understand if you guys want to go into your paranoid worlds where you think that I'm doing meta things that mafia would never do so that I won't be read as mafia but eventually you need to wake up and see that I'm not a mafia that's trying real hard to game throw and that I'm actually just town. I've been trying to avoid saying shit like this because let's be honest it doesn't actually help for me to bring it up it's much better if other people do but I doubt it will happen so I'm just going to come out with it.

Let's make a list of all the things that make no sense for me to do as mafia this game:

- I try to build a wagon on Xel, my partner, for the last few hours of an eod that didn't really have a wagon. If that had taken off I really doubt Xel would have defended himself well and I would have killed my partner for no reason.

- I kill two of the three people that voted on me d0. I then kill the third person the next night.

- I claim on day 1 knowing that there is no chance that I am going to be able to live through the rest of the game with a claim that early. That puts my life on a timer when it didn't have to be.

- I decide to flip my tunnel that I've had for the whole game (Xiz) on the first day that I could actually have made something happen with it. If I was mafia and Xiz was town than it's not even that bad for me because I'd been developing that read for so long that it makes sense for me to kill him that day. Easiest misslynch ever. Hell I could have just claimed a red on him and it wouldn't have been that bad. If I already decided living on an expiration date was ok than why not.

- I decide not to claim a save on a day with no kill even though I have almost no reason not to. Sure I said that I was going to use mystic yesterday but how many people would have argued with me if I came out and said I lied and used angel anyways.

- I decide to openly role hunt in a situation where if too many towns got confirmed it could just be game over. Also if someone important comes out I have to leave them alive or die the next day.

There is no reason for me to do this much shit that is against my wincon. There is too much here to just spin it as "it's so dumb it's smart".


I don't think I'm actually going to get a reads list done tonight because I just spent another hour writing up another post on basically the same shit I just said. I don't want to hear shit about how "lazy" I am because I'm already spending a majority of my free time playing this game instead of enjoying the start of my summer break. It's not like mafia isn't fun but when I have to spend most of my time repeating things that should be pretty clear I have a hard time enjoying it.

[Soundwave-]

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar

Fucking what?
That literally makes no sense. No wolf would be like "Mathematically speaking, we should spare the lives of town and their adorable medic who will surely bring the wreckening upon us"

I was asked what I meant at the time I made that post. The numbers have been done, the scenarios have been considered. For wolves to have straight out no killed is not considerable at this point, especially if tiloco is blue.

That last part is the catch right, but when you throw in the fact that they bumped over a day it would be an absolutely stupid play.

[MixMasterLar]

Originally Posted by tiloco217

In order:

Yes. That is the worst case scenario. That is what has to be evaluated by the other prs before the claim. Not a bad worst case and a really good best case. Very worth a claim

Town should never, ever trade off an investigator role here especially if that player is well hidden (And if he exist, I'd say he is well hidden.)

Originally Posted by tiloco217

No idea what you mean here. I don't have a save to claim so I'd be "lying out my ass" by claiming I angel'd someone last night like Cel was suggesting. Not only would that be bad because I'm lying, I would have to out my save because why wouldn't I if I saved someone and then whoever I decided to say I had a save on would be confirmed for nothing. It is terrible play and I don't understand how it ever became a discussion.

You're missing what I am saying.

Normally, when a blue outs they are going to be targeted that night. When your role is outted you pretty much have to go ahead and say who you claimed. That more or less clears that person for when you flip blue. Town doesn't lynch you or the person you claim and waits. Normally if you survive then you where lying and town lynches you now questions. If you die and flip, then not only did town have better chances of lynching a wolf the phase you claimed (They have X -2 players to pick and not just X amount of players) but they also know that whoever you saved is cleared assuming there wasn't a nightkill. This strat obviously works better with seers but as a general rule of thumb once you are out your days are numbered and you gotta get info out.

.....do you see my point on why your situation is fishy? You out but leave no info. You out so you won't be lynched but you wheren't in that much danger as far as I remember so that seems premature at best. You then start talking about roles but the details change whenever someone starts question them. Also you admit that you can't save yourself but you're alive.

Until someone hints at saving you it's safe to assume you where not targeted, which is bad wolfplay.

Not sure how I'm not supposed to find that weird. You did every play wrong from where I sit yet it's worked out really well for you.

Originally Posted by tiloco217

Yes I'm intent on finding this other medic. I think it's a good idea for literally every role to claim today. We only need 5 towns and we have auto. That's not very hard with so many actions last night.

When it comes to believing OP and your opinion, I will chose OP; claiming is not a smart move.
In addition, mass claiming can't be trusted the phase people claim it. And what happens if wolves just claim anyway? You keep repeating there where 4 other actions but how do you plan to sort players if we get 6 claims? Looks to me like that'll just get messy.

Originally Posted by tiloco217

Same as the last point. You seem to think that the claiming punishment is based on the role itself but I highly doubt it. First off Sunfan mentioned that claiming specifically character name is bad. Secondly every fun game in DM that has some sort of mechanic to punish claiming is always based on the flavor of the role not the role itself. I'd imagine that holds true in other forms of mafia because that is a way to punish that makes sense.

I don't know how much DM and FFR have in common

Originally Posted by tiloco217

At the time I thought there was no possibility of mafia not killing because I thought it gave us an extra lynch.

I mean, that's correct.

Originally Posted by tiloco217

Knowing that's not true

Wait what? Did I miss something?

Originally Posted by tiloco217

it's a possibility that they no killed but one that I highly doubt. They would have to be ok with leaving me alive (the only way I'm ever dying at this point is if there's another claim I'm protecting btw) and be ok with there being an extra town around.

Which I still have doubts a wolf team would do.

Originally Posted by tiloco217

And what the fuck do you think that means?

I don't know and that's why I'm concerned

Originally Posted by tiloco217

Do you think that I'm mafia, planned to go into this day with no kills and then not claim credit for the save. Like I understand if you guys want to go into your paranoid worlds where you think that I'm doing meta things that mafia would never do so that I won't be read as mafia but eventually you need to wake up and see that I'm not a mafia that's trying real hard to game throw and that I'm actually just town. I've been trying to avoid saying shit like this because let's be honest it doesn't actually help for me to bring it up it's much better if other people do but I doubt it will happen so I'm just going to come out with it.

Let's go then

Originally Posted by tiloco217

Let's make a list of all the things that make no sense for me to do as mafia this game:

- I try to build a wagon on Xel, my partner, for the last few hours of an eod that didn't really have a wagon. If that had taken off I really doubt Xel would have defended himself well and I would have killed my partner for no reason.

Talking about the first day you left? You wheren't around the last few hours.
If talking about the day we actually lynched Xel, then I guess fair enough but I don't recall you really making a strong case.

Originally Posted by tiloco217

- I kill two of the three people that voted on me d0. I then kill the third person the next night.

Has happened before

Originally Posted by tiloco217

- I claim on day 1 knowing that there is no chance that I am going to be able to live through the rest of the game with a claim that early. That puts my life on a timer when it didn't have to be.

You seem to be doing well for yourself, though.

Originally Posted by tiloco217

- I decide to flip my tunnel that I've had for the whole game (Xiz) on the first day that I could actually have made something happen with it. If I was mafia and Xiz was town than it's not even that bad for me because I'd been developing that read for so long that it makes sense for me to kill him that day. Easiest misslynch ever. Hell I could have just claimed a red on him and it wouldn't have been that bad. If I already decided living on an expiration date was ok than why not.

Claiming a red on him would require you to change your role yet again.
Also that's the worst longterm strat a wolf would do when faking PR roles.
Like if you where a good wolf you would NEVER consider that this early.

Originally Posted by tiloco217

- I decide not to claim a save on a day with no kill even though I have almost no reason not to. Sure I said that I was going to use mystic yesterday but how many people would have argued with me if I came out and said I lied and used angel anyways.

I'd admit this is a good point. You could have said you saved yourself because lols mystery game and there be little room to doubt.

BUT you turn around and try to get people to massclaim in the same post, which I do not see as pro-town. I don't know how gutsy you are and you could have been trying to claim you had info worthy of massclaiming for, something you couldn't do with a save.

I could endlessly tinfoil this point but I'll leave it there for now.

Originally Posted by tiloco217

- I decide to openly role hunt in a situation where if too many towns got confirmed it could just be game over. Also if someone important comes out I have to leave them alive or die the next day.

Leave the alive or die the next day

Leave them alive, or die the next.....

Huh, that looks like mad slippage there pal. I should just stop typing right here and now but that'll be rude so here we go:
--
In a normal game....you still wouldn't have that strong of a point but in a mystery game this doesn't hold water at all.

1 OP says not to mass claim or else
2 InD made a great point about role guesser, and if we mass claim that could lead to more nights with 2 kills and not one (assuming no one-shots, of course)
3) Wolves have a list of high priority targets handed to them

Originally Posted by tiloco217

I don't think I'm actually going to get a reads list done tonight because I just spent another hour writing up another post on basically the same shit I just said. I don't want to hear shit about how "lazy" I am because I'm already spending a majority of my free time playing this game instead of enjoying the start of my summer break. It's not like mafia isn't fun but when I have to spend most of my time repeating things that should be pretty clear I have a hard time enjoying it.

First, I get that summer vacation is awesome and can see where you are coming from .

Second, this is far, far FAR away from clear.

Originally Posted by Soundwave-

I was asked what I meant at the time I made that post. The numbers have been done, the scenarios have been considered. For wolves to have straight out no killed is not considerable at this point, especially if tiloco is blue.

That last part is the catch right, but when you throw in the fact that they bumped over a day it would be an absolutely stupid play.

As long as we're clear on that.

[MixMasterLar]

Originally Posted by Something Tiloco actually said about Town PRs

Also if someone important comes out I have to leave them alive or die the next day.

Also, leaving this here

[DarkManticoreX2]

Hmmm busy day.

Catching up

[DaBackpack]

I'm doing livetwg and I'm hoping that gets me in the mood to go ham

if it doesn't I'm gonna try to go ham anyway, I feel like I'm holding the game back

[DaBackpack]

I am definitely not looking forward to trying to solve tiloco though

[DarkManticoreX2]

Alright I guess I'll make a small effortpost, because I'm starting to doubt my read on Tokzic.

Tokzic, I need you to look back at this reads list on D2 and tell me why soundwave was your top town read. At that point he had been nothing but scummy or nullread, having him as top town over InD and Cel at that point seems like a ludicrous read unless you're softing a clearing of soundwave.

I've been operating too long under the assumption that you cleared him by use of an investigative power, and I need to that cleared up so I can reevaluate you and soundwave.

Originally Posted by Tokzic

I said before this game started that I was going to be more casual about this game. I ended up trying way harder than I expected D1 and I'm pretty confident about my D1 reads. So no, I don't really have much to say about me and Tiloco that I haven't already said. Everything I read this phase just gets me more confident that I've got a good grip on the game.

I'm going to give my comprehensive reads now.

Dbp
XelNya
Freezin
Xiz
Raeko/WV
Manti
Tiloco
blind
inD
Lar
Celery
Soundwave

That's all you get from me tonight. I warned when I signed that I was playing this game casually, and I'm not spending my night on TWG tonight. I don't want to overfixate on this game and I'm not going to.

If you want to lynch me for not putting enough effort in, do it. When I flip and you're wrong, then maybe start paying attention to my opinions instead of eating up this bullshit narrative the scum are pushing, because I think it is VERY FAR OFF from what's actually happening.

I would be very surprised if I have less than 3/4 in my top 4.

[DarkManticoreX2]

Additionally, with Tiloco coming out and saying he didn't use his medic power, I think we need to be lynching between Cel and DBP.

I can almost guarantee a wolf between the two of them.

DBP continually misses the first day of each day phase and puts in minimal effort until the last few hours. He pushed LK from the sidelines, didn't hop on the Xel Vote until the wagon was already decided, Shows up late D3, and keeps pressure on blind, who was the only wagon that looked tipable. Both me and Tokzic were possible wagons, but it was stated in multiple places of different players resistances to vote for either player.

Cel: The flipping on and off of Tiloco prior phase looked like you were trying to figure out what town's mood was towards him, and if you could get him lynched. I would say your recent play is starting to look opportunistic instead of investigative, and it's been bugging me starting with tiloco, and again with putting the counterwagon on me.

Gonna take a swing at DBP for now, because his phases and votes have been consistently scummy. If DBP dies and is somehow not a wolf, Cel should die the next phase barring something incredibly ridiculous coming to light.

[DaBackpack]

Originally Posted by DarkManticoreX2

Additionally, with Tiloco coming out and saying he didn't use his medic power, I think we need to be lynching between Cel and DBP.

I can almost guarantee a wolf between the two of them.

DBP continually misses the first day of each day phase and puts in minimal effort until the last few hours. He pushed LK from the sidelines, didn't hop on the Xel Vote until the wagon was already decided, Shows up late D3, and keeps pressure on blind, who was the only wagon that looked tipable. Both me and Tokzic were possible wagons, but it was stated in multiple places of different players resistances to vote for either player.

Cel: The flipping on and off of Tiloco prior phase looked like you were trying to figure out what town's mood was towards him, and if you could get him lynched. I would say your recent play is starting to look opportunistic instead of investigative, and it's been bugging me starting with tiloco, and again with putting the counterwagon on me.

Gonna take a swing at DBP for now, because his phases and votes have been consistently scummy. If DBP dies and is somehow not a wolf, Cel should die the next phase barring something incredibly ridiculous coming to light.

why do you think this? why are you enforcing this dichotomy?

[DaBackpack]

see it's weird that you're guaranteeing "there's one wolf in this pair" when hey, when it's very likely that two mislynches ends the game for us