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Old 04-11-2017, 07:29 AM   #261
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Default Re: TWG CLXVI: Fall Of An Empire Game Thread Night 2

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Originally Posted by mellonxcollie View Post
meh
Hmm, interesting. Could you elaborate?
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Old 04-11-2017, 07:33 AM   #262
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Default Re: TWG CLXVI: Fall Of An Empire Game Thread Night 2

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Hmm, interesting. Could you elaborate?
Yes it was a very thought-provoking take and I too would like to hear more.
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Old 04-11-2017, 11:58 AM   #263
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Default Re: TWG CLXVI: Fall Of An Empire Game Thread Night 2

Meh is about all that posts deserves for the amount of content it gives me. It did not contain a single personal scum read. All you do is list countless possible wolf partnerships, each reliant on whether or not a completely inactive player is a wolf (???)

After waiting an entire phase (SUPER SKETCHY) to deliver ~game-solving revelations~ that post said a whole lot of nothing. Honestly I can't believe anyone is even letting you get away with this. I wish we had already killed you last night

Your ENTIRE POST focuses on Choof, who is dead, Danika, who is dead, and your game solving pairings rely on Neptune, who has barely interacted with anyone this entire game. He also automatically clears a bunch of people (Choof, Haku) in his worlds which makes no sense as a human looking at things from all perspectives

It was blatantly padded with quotes, logs and the freaking play list over and over again to make it appear bigger. And now you’re waiting to see how everyone responds to this before giving your thoughts on people who are actually in the game

:thinking:

For everyone else, this is how long Flash’s post would have been if you take out everything that had been copy/pasted

Quote:
Originally Posted by flashflash account View Post
The Thinking Mind of Me

Part I: The Given Choof

When I was reading through the discord my overall read of Choof is that the lynch happened because people were metagaming him hard. I think it's pretty clear at this point he was a mislynch, so he's a given at this point. DanikaBanana is a given non-wolf since she was night killed, but I'm not entirely certain she was town. I'll go over that later. Flashflash Account as a human is a given (since I don't need to prove my humanity to my own thoughts). That being said, I'll try to include myself where applicable to ease potential suspicion. Nakah just got lynched, and while I *suspect* he's a mislynch, he's not a given in the same way I think Choof was.

So here's the reads we need to look at:

11C3 comes out to 165, so in a random situation with no leans or reads there are 165 potential wolf pairings (when we subtract the givens).

Part II: The Danika Effect



The question everyone asked. "Why wasn't haku killed?" And it's a question worth asking. Typically (ignoring meta) someone that towny has to be killed before they get info on everyone and it spirals out of control. So WHY Danika? The two biggest reasons for Not Haku are:

1) Wolves are playing the meta
2) Someone was a bigger threat than Haku
THE ONLY WAY THESE MAKE SENSE: Is if Danika was read as potentially blue.

Danika.txt--->CLICK HERE

What am I reading from this? DFR WILL NOT NIGHT KILL DANIKA. Basically at this point Danika night kill not only clears DFR but it also clears Haku, instead of throwing suspicion on him (as I previously might have thought). Not that Haku needed it, of course. So thus we move on with 2 more players confirmed human.

9C3 is 84. We've already knocked off nearly half of all possible combinations by eliminating two players from wolfhood. However, in order for our original argument 1 (Wolves are playing the meta) to be true, the Danika lynch has to make sense from a meta perspective. Thus we go to her reads:

Knowing what we know now, none of these reads seem particularly dangerous from any of our possible wolf teams. She has both Tokzic and mellonxcollie as human, and her wolf vibes are quite frankly pulling from different hypotheticals. So with one exception, we can safely eliminate the "Wolves are playing the meta" argument. We move on to argument 2 (Someone was more dangerous than Haku). The ONLY thing a wolf not playing meta would lynch over Haku is a Special Role (or a private vendetta tbh but we already cleared DFR).

I can see how someone reading this for example would consider Danika is a special. Reading all of Danika's stuff, I really don't see her being as special as I initially thought. In some cases, it works though. So what do we learn from the Danika night kill?
Part III: The Exception to the Danika Effect


Allow me to introduce you to Human Davy:

Allow me to introduce you to Wolf Davy:

Where am I on davy? I honestly only know slightly more than you. If he doesn't come back I'm confident with him being a wolf, but if he comes back I'm more willing to give him the benefit of the doubt. IF ANYONE WOLFED DANIKA FOR META REASONS, IT WOULD BE DAVY. Actual probability of that happening is low. Davy would still night kill Danika, however, if he was reasonable sure that she was a special.

ASSUMING DAVY DOES NOT COME BACK: Almost certainly a wolf. If we mislynch him for inactivity it's all on him anyway.
IF DAVY DOES COME BACK: He needs very specific reads and attacks to stay in this. There are a lot of easy reads for him to make that won't clear him, and I'm sure he'd bus someone if he thought it would clear him. He IS a pretty good player.

Part IV: Davy is a Wolf

If Davy is a wolf, these are his compatible partners.
Lightknight, Tokzic, Evanescence, Roundbox

Raeko's, dbp's, and Freezn's complete disregard for davy's skill seems genuine to me and I don't think any of them would react in the same way that they have. Soundwave was an early target of davy's and he's not the kind of player to intentionally call out a partner when nothing is riding on it. There has to be a visible advantage for him to take the risk and at that point I don't think soundwave was scummy enough for davy to try bussing him.

At this point I can't just google the combination answer, but I believe 5C3 is 10. Correct me if I'm wrong. With davy as a lock for wolf it becomes 4C2 which is 6. So there are 6 potential wolf combos when we count davy:
Davy, Nakah, Tokzic
This works. Tokzic has Nakah as town after Nakah is lynched and also is not as suspect of TyrantNeptune as the others.
Davy, Nakah, eva
This is weak since eva sheep voted nakah, which probably wouldn't happen with wolf eva.
Davy, Nakah, roundbox
roundbox initially read nakah as town even though at that point nakah was being super wolfy. Looking at discord I'm not seeing anything different. This pairing is also possible.
Davy, Tokzic, eva
Nope. Tokzic and eva are incompatible
Davy, eva, roundbox
This pairing is less likely than the others.
Davy, Tokzic, roundbox
Roundbox reading both his partners as slight scum? I don't know what to make of that since I don't know roundbox meta. Outside insight is appreciated here.

ROUNDBOX.txt---->CLICK HERE

From this I think we determine: IF DAVY IS A WOLF, ROUNDBOX AND NAKAH ARE WOLVES.

Part V: Davy is Not a Wolf

Davy not being a wolf is slightly less likely.

If Davy is not a wolf, I'm confident that his initial reads on Soundwave are correct. So if soundwave is the wolf...

His partners need to night kill Danika at the very least.
Possible partners: Freezin, mellonxcollie, dabackpack, evanescence, roundbox

As you can see he has a lot of potential partners. Tokzic has been so anti-soundwave from the beginning that them being partners bussing each other is ridiculous. Nakah and Soundwave being partners is also just dumb since I and many others have decided one is town and the other is scum at this point.


6C3 gives us 20 possible combinations. THIS IS EVANESCENCE'S FAULT. If I heard more from her I could see how much her scum reads have changed since her initial post (which she somehow had time to color code but didn't have time to catch up or give unique thought). For the sake of narrowing it down, we'll go back to evanescence later and assume that she and soundwave are incompatible, which brings us to another 5C3=10, 4C2=6.
Soundwave, FreezinIce, Mellonxcollie
This one doesn't have a lot of merit (mostly because I believe Freezin is human, but also because the three of them aren't as compatible as any two of them together) and is loosely based on SW and Freezin's voting patterns as well as voting Nakah>Soundwave when most town agreed soundwave was the more wolfish target.
Soundwave, FreezinIce, Dabackpack
-Will pick up here in section 2-
Soundwave, FreezinIce, roundbox
-section 2-
Soundwave, mellonxcollie, Dabackpack
This is loosely based on the voice chat where all three of them were mostly defending eva against me and nakah. Not much merit to this pairing especially after phase ended but it exists.
Soundwave, mellonxcollie, roundbox
VOTE 4 NAKAH 2K17 (will elaborate section 2)
Soundwave, Dabackpack, roundbox
Soundwave and DBP without raeko is really unlikely because of dbp voting for soundwave while roundbox votes for nakah.

SORRY I HAVE TO CUT THIS SHORT BUT MY THOUGHTS ARE NOT DONE YET
MAYBE I SHOULD JUST QUIT MY JOB AND PLAY TWG INSTEAD

Keeping in mind that the entire bottom half is just lists of three people with vague reasoning

Remember how long this took and how he needed to gather all this evidence and put in all this ~effort~? Doesn’t seem like that much effort to me. Seems like he easily could have done this within the time Nakah got lynched to the time he posted it.

This is the wolfiest effort post to ever make a wolfy effort to post basically
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Old 04-11-2017, 12:17 PM   #264
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Default Re: TWG CLXVI: Fall Of An Empire Game Thread Night 2

To be fair, that's still a fairly long post but there is a part 2. I think we should at least hear him out lol
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Old 04-11-2017, 02:29 PM   #265
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Default Re: TWG CLXVI: Fall Of An Empire Game Thread Night 2

Tfw 12 partnerships is countless even when I discount about half of them
I'm hoping I can get to everything I've been thinking before phase ends. Basically with my info/gleaning and tonight's kill the game is either solved or mostly solved
(Also, formally request to replace evanescence and maybe tyrant if phase ends without them saying anything)
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Old 04-11-2017, 05:40 PM   #266
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Default Re: TWG CLXVI: Fall Of An Empire Game Thread Night 2

Still waiting for my ride and I can't resist taking a small jab at Raeko
Raeko: "I took out all the evidence and logic that was padding his post and see what we have left? Lists of three people with vague reasoning!"

Sorry raeko
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Old 04-11-2017, 09:05 PM   #267
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Default Re: TWG CLXVI: Fall Of An Empire Game Thread Night 2

Hakulyte has been killed.



Current player list:

1. Soundwave-
2. TyrantNeptune
3. FreeznIce
4. Lightknight Lynched D2
5. mellonxcollie
6. tokzic
7. Dabackpack
8. Hakulyte Killed N2
9. DanikaBanana-Killed N1
10. evanescence
11. roundbox
12. danceflashrevo
13. Choof-Lynched Day 1
14. flashflash account

Day 3 starts now and ends on 4.13 at 7PM PST 10PM EST.
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Old 04-11-2017, 11:35 PM   #268
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Default Re: TWG CLXVI: Fall Of An Empire Game Thread Day 3

soundwave

i'm going to bed. my thoughts are in the discord.
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Old 04-11-2017, 11:37 PM   #269
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Default Re: TWG CLXVI: Fall Of An Empire Game Thread Day 3

soundwave please
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Old 04-11-2017, 11:53 PM   #270
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Default Re: TWG CLXVI: Fall Of An Empire Game Thread Day 3

I'd prefer it if Freezin were happier about this, but that's my fault.
Soundwave
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Old 04-12-2017, 02:50 PM   #271
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Default Re: TWG CLXVI: Fall Of An Empire Game Thread Day 3

HELLO!!! Eva in the house! Okay, I'm reading. I've got so much to catch up on. Let's. Do. THIS!
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Old 04-12-2017, 06:18 PM   #272
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Default Re: TWG CLXVI: Fall Of An Empire Game Thread Day 3

I'm expecting greatness
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Old 04-12-2017, 07:25 PM   #273
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Default Re: TWG CLXVI: Fall Of An Empire Game Thread Day 3

Is there a way to insert a google doc?!

Okay guys. Here it is.

I'm so behind, here's a googleDoc book by yours truly.
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Old 04-12-2017, 07:25 PM   #274
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Default Re: TWG CLXVI: Fall Of An Empire Game Thread Day 3

If you'd rather not read the google doc, I will copy pasta straight from that but I DO NOT WANT TO REFORMAT. I thought it may just be easier to read on the doc?
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Old 04-12-2017, 09:21 PM   #275
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Default Re: TWG CLXVI: Fall Of An Empire Game Thread Day 3

This hasn't been ruled on before, but Google Docs are not allowed to be posted in here. They are too easy to edit after the fact (not that I don't trust you all )

Please just copy and paste that in here and split it up in multiple posts if necessary.
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Old 04-12-2017, 10:58 PM   #276
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Default Re: TWG CLXVI: Fall Of An Empire Game Thread Day 3

THINGS THAT JUMP OUT AT ME

post #193 (Well that seems like a weird slip...Like...It jumped out at me a lot)


(in voice chat 2 days ago, early evening)
(talking about past games and wolf metas)
Soundwave: "This is my first game in a long time, I'm not used to the investigative role."
Tokzic: "When's the last game you played?"
Soundwave: "I've only played one game on FFR."
Tokzic: "Really? I could have sworn I've played more than one game with you. I thought I've seen you as human and wolf before."
Soundwave: "Nope, just the one wolf game. I haven't rolled town yet on FFR."
Tokzic: "Wait......... including this game?"
Soundwave: *backpedals*
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post #207 (is tokzic usually this hostile? I don't know your playstyle, dude--so maybe this is
normal when you have thoughts like that?)

if you think this is scum narrative, then you really could use some extra investment into this game

you are a good player, we are into d2 in a game with ootc and nighttalk

the d1 votes are fucking SPICY

and yet when i ask you what your reads are today, you just quote your shit from BEFORE the vote? are you fucking serious dude

you are usually a player who is annoyed by people not performing up to snuff, except this time you are that player, and you don't even really have any slank to offset it except "school"

you are a gaping hole in my info web, if you're town i need your help to read you right, please play the game

post #210

FLASHFLASH SAYS "thunderdome" <---what does this mean? Also, who is the "he" that flashflash
is referring to?


#211 (by soundwave)

"@everyone else please read discord this sounds a lot more null than he's actually being presently"
^he's talking about flash flash~ so...Is flashflash actually being scummy?
I'm just taking notes on everything--

#214 by Haku--
Calling out Soundwave for scumminess--Haku makes sense to me (but wait, isn't Haku dead now?)

#218 flashflash votes for me
It sounds like the vote largely stems from a lack of understand me as an IRL person. I know game shouldn’t be necessarily like IRL--but. Having headspace room for something you’re extremely excited about, something you’ve actually never done, something that is real life, in the moment--something where you can experience strange emotions you never have before (lol @ happiness)
I guess it’s unfair of me to say “I don’t care about the game” because..that’s not the case. I just care about my real life more, I guess. I don’t disagree with the *dead weight* comment, because that’s all I’ve been at this point, sadly. But I’m ready to hop on for town victory. I really didn’t expect this trip to be so jampacked with all the stuff it has been. But that’s what I have to say about you saying “LA isn’t an excuse” kinda hits me on the personal level (stupid Eva and feeling personally attacked)
(hashtag cleared though in post #221 since you asked me about it 1v1)

#225 (post by DFR)

11. roundbox - null to scum. I haven't liked his tone all game. He's felt absent mentally and literally. I feel as if he's apprehensive to help town. (Tokzic slightly town)
As I was reading your post, I was just trying to see if there were ones that jumped out in disagreement with my stance on folks. I have roundbox as hardcore null initially, but after a 1v1, he just seemed very towny. Tokzic just comes off as null to scum to me, but I’ve not gotten the chance to actually sit down with him and 1v1.

#228 by Nakah
I have to type this post on my phone so I may have to break it up for all the quotes. Starting this post with saying that after I read through everyone's posts since Day 1 ended, I dont believe DFR is actually truly as surprised about Haku'd death as he wants to lead us to believe. Something he sounds like he's "reacting" about to seem human.

ALSO in this next part in his post about soundwave's "slip up," he sounds like he's trying to leave us with the impression that he's unsure of what to think. This self-doubt edge to his post strikes me as fishy with DFR.

ALSO of this entire phase, and mostly last one, he seems to have been able to chime only bit by bit with his posts in without any spotlight. More to come in a second.

This post stood out to me a bit just in the sense that it seems like a solidly constructed feedback post from Nakah. To be fair, I’ve been totally inactive for like the last…(gosh I don’t even want to count and let’s not talk about it)--so my reactions to this sort of thing is perhaps uneducated. But for example, there seemed to be a lot of lack of logic in previous Nakah posts when I was around which is why I jumped on him before. DFR’s post made me a little confused initially because I actually...I have a question. Why are people surprised that Haku didn’t die? Haku was top town to me (along with Raeko). I think my lack of experience is contributing to my confusion maybe, but...Do wolves want to kill top town? Or is it more of a want to kill who they think is good at the game?
I’m hesitant to jump on a thought bandwagon with Nakah because I’m still not feeling a towny vibe from him but if he is town his reads on DFR seem logical and genuine. I was wondering why there was so much self-doubt in DFR’s post, as well. I don’t know much about DFR as a player, but he seems experienced enough and usually confident? Not sure totally. I don’t want to bash a player for self-doubt though, because I’m pretty sure self-doubt is my middle name.

#232 (post by DFR)
DFR’s entire rebuttal makes sense to me except the first part. I guess I don’t understand motives?
The “it’s like I’m busy or something” gave me a giggle because I’m never going to knock on anyone for being busy.

#242 (post by daBackPack)
Was the “you” in this post directed at Soundwave who you just parrot voted for? I know I’m like a day behind at this point but I’m getting somewhere, I promise. Not too concerned about the parrot vote but...Was wondering why the Nakah wagon was weird as fuck to quote you, on that..

Okay, welp--backpack explained in the next post, but I’m not deleting these things I say--just so you can get where my headspace is since I’ve been so inactive

OKAY I’m at the point where everyone is voting.
POST #255 jumping at me! Nakah says “Raeko and Haku and Roundbox” as his last words. Haku is my top town, Raeko my second top town, and Roundbox null to town. Am I missing something? Well, fuck. Nakah would have been my vote. But I missed EOD.

Okay. Haku dead? Haku was my top town so I don’t like that. At this point I’ve not contributed too much to who I’m seeing as *top scum* but I wanted you guys to see where my headspace was at this point in //semi-real-time// but not actually since you aren’t going to read this till I post it. I’m leaning soundwave but I don’t think I’ve got enough on him and well, MAYBE HE WILL VOICE WITH ME RIGHT NOW!



THIS WAS THE CONTENT FROM MY GOOGLE DOC EARLIER.


@tps...Should I delete everything from the google doc now? I know I can't edit my post and delete the link but?...What's best course of action now?

Sorry for breaking a rule. I know it wasn't one before but the rule follower, too emotional, part in me kinda took it badly so I think I'm just going to go to sleep =/
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Old 04-13-2017, 03:44 PM   #277
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Default Re: TWG CLXVI: Fall Of An Empire Game Thread Day 3

tyrant

I've waited for him long enough
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Old 04-13-2017, 04:42 PM   #278
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Default Re: TWG CLXVI: Fall Of An Empire Game Thread Day 3

FORMAL REQUEST:

Can the psychic claim if there are 2 wolves or less in the game?

I don't think they're going to, because I don't think there's 2 wolves or less in the game, but I thought I'd put this out there anyway.
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Old 04-13-2017, 06:00 PM   #279
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Default Re: TWG CLXVI: Fall Of An Empire Game Thread Day 3

Hakulyte - Last Saturday at 11:25 AM
can I ask ya a few things stance-wise ?
Michael - Last Saturday at 12:51 PM
Oh hey
Check it out, the app works
@Hakulyte
Hakulyte - Last Saturday at 12:54 PM
oh
Michael - Last Saturday at 12:54 PM
Went to the play store, turns out it's 16 mb
Still opposed to discord conceptually though Skype ftw
Hakulyte - Last Saturday at 12:55 PM
im going to copy you 2 logs
from a 1 on 1 with roundbox
Michael - Last Saturday at 12:56 PM
Kk
Hakulyte - Last Saturday at 12:57 PM
FreezinIce - Last Wednesday at 10:31 PM
y0
roundbox - Last Wednesday at 10:31 PM
hello
FreezinIce - Last Wednesday at 10:32 PM
you checked thread yet? got any thoughts on whats transpired so far (or what hasnt i guess depending on perspective)
roundbox - Last Wednesday at 10:32 PM
uh
only earlier
when soundwave or whoever defended two people
but it doens't really mean anything
other than that, no
FreezinIce - Last Wednesday at 10:33 PM
hm yeah. well there was flashflash throwing out questionable blue strats
and nakah random vote on haku. well once you check again if you have any thoughts on those let me know
roundbox - Last Wednesday at 10:34 PM
in a dota game so it's a bit difficult
FreezinIce - Last Wednesday at 10:34 PM
yeah ik no pressure to do it like NOW
just whenever
I would not classify this as much of a conversation of a game
definitely not from my behalf
Michael - Last Saturday at 12:57 PM
Brb dota
I know that feel
Hakulyte - Last Saturday at 12:57 PM
oh cmon
Hakulyte - Last Thursday at 10:53 PM
quick question
did you manage to 1 on 1 with TyrantNeptune?
roundbox - Last Thursday at 10:53 PM
no
Hakulyte - Last Thursday at 10:53 PM
I tried to talk to him all day and it's been even more impossible than everyone else
roundbox - Last Thursday at 10:53 PM
this is my only 1:1 conversation
Michael - Last Saturday at 12:58 PM
But league
Yeah Davy is in a weird time zone
But he's not typically an inactive player
Just hard to talk to in time
Hakulyte - Last Saturday at 1:00 PM
the 2nd part is something I asked him
before the first part
Michael - Last Saturday at 1:00 PM
Ok
That clears that up
Hakulyte - Last Saturday at 1:01 PM
Hakulyte - Yesterday at 3:07 PM
im wondering about your freezinice town read
and that you told me you were the first 1 on 1 you had
when you both obviously talked before me
roundbox - Yesterday at 3:07 PM
here's my log with him
Hakulyte - Yesterday at 3:07 PM
(I also asked him)
roundbox - Yesterday at 3:07 PM
ah
I did not give him any reads or anything
it's longer than I Remember I GUESS but I was in a dota game when he messaged me
but even then
it's not really an extensive conversationa bout the game
he just told me to come in and look at stuff
here it is
FreezinIce - Last Wednesday at 10:31 PM
tl;dr he told me I was the first person who talked to him in 1 on 1
Michael - Last Saturday at 1:02 PM
Yeah I see that
Hakulyte - Last Saturday at 1:02 PM
and later on he said that he talked with freezinice before that
and I find that weird
I asked freezinice and he pmuch told me he talked with roundbox no problem
Michael - Last Saturday at 1:02 PM
Imo it's one of those things that you end up looking too far into
Hakulyte - Last Saturday at 1:02 PM
yeah
but im kinda paranoid with him
Michael - Last Saturday at 1:03 PM
He probably really did forget
Hakulyte - Last Saturday at 1:03 PM
http://www.flashflashrevolution.com/...&postcount=167 posts like these makes me paranoid
Michael - Last Saturday at 1:03 PM
I can't see any strategic advantage from lying about the 1v1
Unless freezin is a partner it would make more sense
But that's really dumb
Hakulyte - Last Saturday at 1:04 PM
nah, I actually freezinice is legit
but freezinice could be still in null range
he's less invested than in previous games
but it could be because of the setup
this is like the first ootc game in over a year
games are normally fully on forums
with ootc off
this is the first time I directly use discord for this
and I think it's the same for everyone else
Michael - Last Saturday at 1:07 PM
Nsm always allows out of thread
PMs, discord, irc are all fair game
Hakulyte - Last Saturday at 1:08 PM
I think that the majority of my cases are wrong around this point
and that most of the wolf team lies in my counter wagon
Michael - Last Saturday at 1:08 PM
Idk what the rest of humanity thinks but I'm comfortable lynching nakah atm
Hakulyte - Last Saturday at 1:09 PM
im comfortable with a very uncomfortable amount of lynches
Michael - Last Saturday at 1:09 PM
Farther than that I'd be hesitant to lynch anyone just off of leans
Man I honestly hate being human, wolf is fun
Hakulyte - Last Saturday at 1:09 PM
mostly waiting for that first nk to think
Michael - Last Saturday at 1:10 PM
As human you just kinda spin around and throw a dart
All the logic and guesswork is mostly fluff
Hakulyte - Last Saturday at 1:10 PM
im objectively considered the worst wolf in the entire forum
fyi
Michael - Last Saturday at 1:10 PM
Kindred spirits wheee
Hakulyte - Last Saturday at 1:11 PM
I literally won an award for easiest scumread
Michael - Last Saturday at 1:11 PM
I was a wolf in a game that ended night 2
Beat that
Hakulyte - Last Saturday at 1:11 PM
I never won a wolf game by myself over 2 years
Michael - Last Saturday at 1:11 PM
Oh no the humans won that game
There were 2 wolf teams of 2
Hakulyte - Last Saturday at 1:12 PM
the only wolf game I did alright was a SK type of wolf game
where I don't know my wolf partners
and I almost got one lynched D0
because I was playing my town game
but no one listened to me
because im not considered good enough
and then I thought my wolf partners were 2 towns
and I tried to signal them that im their wolf partner
but they just thought i was dumb and town read me for it
Michael - Last Saturday at 1:13 PM
You're brilliant

Hakulyte - Last Saturday at 1:13 PM
I got the innocent child killed over being dumb
and somehow reached F5
and I helped a new player by telling him what he should do
and he trusted me for the mylo
which made me win
but I was 100% wolf for the rest by that point
Michael - Last Saturday at 1:14 PM
My first game as wolf the seer blind claimed to me
And I blew it horribly
In hindsight the human alliance was pretty strong
So they would have won anyway
Hakulyte - Last Saturday at 1:15 PM
2 games ago I was 2/3 in wolves
straight up D1
and I spent the entire game saying they were wolves
and they never killed me
and they never died
I literally spent 3 phaes in a row voting a wolf
and my wagon never happened
Michael - Last Saturday at 1:16 PM
If I do that I get lynched
Hakulyte - Last Saturday at 1:16 PM
I have serious issues with credibility
Michael - Last Saturday at 1:16 PM
I'm usually 1 for 2 or 1 for 3 though
Hakulyte - Last Saturday at 1:17 PM
the one I was wrong on spent the entire game tunneling me and trying to say im delusional
instead of talking with me
Michael - Last Saturday at 1:17 PM
I play magic the gathering so I read people's behaviour a lot
Hakulyte - Last Saturday at 1:17 PM
I lack common sense
and I usually have weird reads and counterintuitive thinking
by example I prefered a choof vote over you
because I don't think you're master wolf
as choof hinted
Michael - Last Saturday at 1:18 PM
Counterintuitive thinking works in this game
Hakulyte - Last Saturday at 1:18 PM
but I think he could have been master wolf
for considering that
Michael - Last Saturday at 1:18 PM
Wait
Oh right because of my seering obsession
Carry on
Hakulyte - Last Saturday at 1:19 PM
yeah
you could be wolf and you know tyrant is master wolf etc.
it's just smh
Michael - Last Saturday at 1:19 PM
Well like
If at first I wanted me seered
But then I wanted Davy seered
Hakulyte - Last Saturday at 1:20 PM
I know it doesn't make sense
because there's only 1 master wolf
Michael - Last Saturday at 1:20 PM
Doesn't that mean I'm either hardcore psychic or human
Hakulyte - Last Saturday at 1:20 PM
could be, you have to be something
heh
Michael - Last Saturday at 1:21 PM
From my point of view
Hakulyte - Last Saturday at 1:21 PM
if you're psychic tho, you've been playing with fire
by avoiding the channel
Michael - Last Saturday at 1:21 PM
The seer clearing me is better than the seer clearing anyone else
Because anyone else could be the master wolf
Hakulyte - Last Saturday at 1:22 PM
unless you get nk'd
that would clear you ironically
Michael - Last Saturday at 1:23 PM
Act slightly scummy but not as scummy as another player = never get wolfed
Hakulyte - Last Saturday at 1:23 PM
depends what's the wolf team tbh

Michael - Last Saturday at 1:23 PM
Yes getting wolfed would be great
Hakulyte - Last Saturday at 1:24 PM
I think im relatively likely to get nk'd
if the wolf team is new players
Michael - Last Saturday at 1:24 PM
Tbh if you don't...
Hakulyte - Last Saturday at 1:24 PM
but not if it's veterans here
because they know I have a terrible history
Michael - Last Saturday at 1:25 PM
Thinking about it
Roundbox could be special
Hakulyte - Last Saturday at 1:25 PM
im expecting to be left alive until im about to somehow potentially hit a wolf
but since i play weirdly, there's always a risk for them
Michael - Last Saturday at 1:25 PM
I think that fits what I've seen from him
Hakulyte - Last Saturday at 1:27 PM
im hoping you stay alive and kinda solve tyrant/nakah
because I usually rely on meta
and I don't know what im doing with them
im just reacting to what I find weird
Michael - Last Saturday at 1:27 PM
Davy will clear himself
If he's human
Hakulyte - Last Saturday at 1:27 PM
I know eva defy objectivity
you can make her implode as both alignment with pressure
she never completed a game so far
usually replaces out
very emotional player
I think her own trip is what is keeping her sanity together
Michael - Last Saturday at 1:28 PM
Then she's probably a good int mislynch
If such a thing becomes necessary
Hakulyte - Last Saturday at 1:29 PM
you can easily convince her that she's wrong
and will sheep you for it
that's a problem kinda
I've been trying to not do too much about her
and pray she auto-solve
I got her mislynched 2 games ago
by playing very objectively
and she was like don't target me, I'll vote what you want etc.
and I found that overly wolfy
but she was town
and I was like ??? da fuc
nakah is also weird
because there's only 3 things that kinda saves him
voice chat that you missed where he felt solid genuine
the replacement post
and his vote on me that's hilariously bad
which could be "too good to be true"
honestly, if he's lynched at any point I wouldn't mind
I can't explain how he delayed himself to explains his own actions
mentioning replacing out over feelings was pretty weird
if you play strangely and never explain your actions
it's kind of expected that players ask you what you're doing
I don't understand why a town would refuse to explain things
for me it's a brainless red flag
and if he did replace out
he was almost automatically the lynch
because the replacement wouldn't be able to explain his game
so, fmpov, nakah is always a good lynch this game
he finally explained all his actions
but the timing is ugh
I consider that there's a point of no return with saving yourself from a situation
and that he's past that
Michael - Last Saturday at 1:35 PM
Brb 5 minute
Hakulyte - Last Saturday at 1:35 PM
what sucks is that I'll never know for sure until post game
ah ok
Michael - Last Saturday at 1:41 PM
What the actual heck
-14
That's bull
Hakulyte - Last Saturday at 1:43 PM
heh
im going to spoon feed you with info
until this phase ends
if you don't mind
Michael - Last Saturday at 1:43 PM
Go for it
Hakulyte - Last Saturday at 1:43 PM
raeko - Today at 1:38 PM
eva messaging me about roundbox rn
am i wrong to be mad paranoid about this sort of PM coming at this time of night phase?
Hakulyte - Today at 1:38 PM
I made her paranoid
because im also paranoid
jsayin'
raeko - Today at 1:39 PM
about roundbox?
idk i dont like this
Hakulyte - Today at 1:39 PM
yeah
raeko - Today at 1:39 PM
eva - Today at 1:36 PM
Hey Raeko! I've been trying to rest haha (was so exhausted) and honestly I just want to talk to you about LA but I figure maybe I should ask you game questions.

Yesterday you told me talking to roundbox helped with your null read. I ended up chatting with him, and it helped with mine, too, actually. Quite a bit. In my mind he's leaning quite town. What sort of thoughts did you have on him?
smells of wolf partners trying to figure out who to kill
to me
??
that's a raeko log with me
and eva is talking to her atm 1 on 1
eva also talked to me 1 on 1
and I told her I was paranoid about roundbox
but she has a town read on roundbox
but roundbox is like one of our top players
and his wolf game is to emulate his town game
eva is not someone that played a lot with roundbox
so, this could go either way
tl;dr: eva / roundbox are weird fmpov at this point in the game
Michael - Last Saturday at 1:46 PM
They compatible?

Hakulyte - Last Saturday at 1:46 PM
they both voted choof too
if you're a believer that choof lynch was bad
what do you mean by compatible?
Michael - Last Saturday at 1:47 PM
Partners
Hakulyte - Last Saturday at 1:47 PM
completely possible
roundbox was in voice chat, but had low activity
and eva spent 95% of the game talking about her trip
and shown little solving interest
her votes are the 2 main wagons
Michael - Last Saturday at 1:48 PM
Evan sounds like if we pressure her she panics as human but is a bit more calm or maybe angry as wolf?
Probably try a reaction test on her
Hakulyte - Last Saturday at 1:48 PM
I never played a wolf her
I only have one game with her
and she never completed a game
she played like 3 games or so
and replaced out in all of them
from imploding emotionally
so, she doesn't even have one complete game
which is why im relatively okay with not doing much about her
Michael - Last Saturday at 1:50 PM
Maybe some people shouldn't play twg
Alright let's start a bandwagon on her tomorrow and see how she reacts
Hakulyte - Last Saturday at 1:50 PM
she's just going to implode tbh
and figuring out if it's a town or a wolf implosion is going to be a nightmare
because she freaks out even as town
Michael - Last Saturday at 1:50 PM
Then shed be human
I have a feeling that if she's a wolf she won't panic
Michael - Last Saturday at 9:30 PM
I can smell the bandwagon coming
Hakulyte - Last Saturday at 9:31 PM
yeah
Michael - Last Saturday at 9:31 PM
Soundwave I think is a wolf. Tokzic is pretty green to me now
Hakulyte - Last Saturday at 9:31 PM
if you said the opposite, I'd be voting you tbh
Michael - Last Saturday at 9:32 PM
If I said the opposite I'd be voting me too what
Hakulyte - Last Saturday at 9:32 PM
soundwave has been useless all game
Michael - Last Saturday at 9:32 PM
Sw plays make sense from wolf perspective
Hakulyte - Last Saturday at 9:32 PM
no offense to him
Michael - Last Saturday at 9:32 PM
He's under fire
Desperately needs to shift it
Hakulyte - Last Saturday at 9:32 PM
DFR is also under fire
but he doesn't realize it
Michael - Last Saturday at 9:33 PM
I wanted to put Evan in the spotlight but my post got swallowed

Hakulyte - Last Saturday at 9:33 PM
asking me how many wolves are alive
is death sentence
from him
the rest is not even important
Michael - Last Saturday at 9:33 PM
Couldn't that mean he's the seer and got you blue
Nah he'd just claim
That's dumb
Hakulyte - Last Saturday at 9:34 PM
nah
not even close
Michael - Last Saturday at 9:34 PM
I think it's odd though that sw is pushing this so hard
Hakulyte - Last Saturday at 9:34 PM
lynching me is super important
nk me is a pain in the ass
Michael - Last Saturday at 9:34 PM
The roundbox+Evan thing is barely noteworthy
Hakulyte - Last Saturday at 9:34 PM
because of massive info by me
every players has a giant cube of text
of 1 on 1 interaction with me
and the moment I die
im confirmed town as a nk
and tbh the game will get close to solved
because im doing a lot of stuff
thanks to me ridiculous meta
that you kind of don't know
which breaks the game almost
Michael - Last Saturday at 9:36 PM
Idk
Hakulyte - Last Saturday at 9:36 PM
also raeko is confirmed town 100%
but I won't explain you why
Michael - Last Saturday at 9:36 PM
She reminds me of a player from nsm named bubbles
Hakulyte - Last Saturday at 9:38 PM
and tomorrow confirmed towns will jump drastically
regardless of what happens
in a perfect world I die
April 10, 2017
Hakulyte - Last Monday at 7:55 PM
https://pastebin.com/dFBc6maQ
Pastebin
dnikabanana chat log - Pastebin.com
that's DFR vs Danika
and he's super mad he shared that with me
because there's personal stuff as well
jsayin'
https://pastebin.com/hpMGWk1r
Pastebin
DanikaBanana - Last Wednesday at 9:21 PM hiya Hakulyte - Last We...
that's Danika vs me
which is probably the longest danika log
939 lines
Michael - Last Monday at 8:02 PM
Awesome thanks
Hakulyte - Last Monday at 8:04 PM
https://pastebin.com/L3KfwQpT dabackpack vs me
Pastebin
Hakulyte - Last Wednesday at 3:26 PM wow, by accusing soundwave,...
heh, went offline?
Michael - Last Monday at 8:10 PM
Nah just internet browsing
Hakulyte - Last Monday at 8:22 PM
https://pastebin.com/H83tM99Q
Pastebin
eva - Last Friday at 1:10 PM Hey haku, I'm at the beginning of p...
eva & me
kinda short compared to others
but she wasn't around much
Michael - Last Monday at 8:41 PM
I made it to the top of the chat
Hakulyte - Last Monday at 8:41 PM
nice
looks like raeko just voted you
hmm
but I don't think you'll rip
based on votes
so, im not too worried tbh

Michael - Last Monday at 8:42 PM
That's a pretty wolf vote isn't it
Or am I being scummy
Hakulyte - Last Monday at 8:42 PM
I think it's that "I need X log, Y thing Z etc."
that you asked for everyone publicly
which was odd kinda
well, maybe she has other reasons
you should ask her
Michael - Last Monday at 8:43 PM
Later
When I'm done
Hakulyte - Last Monday at 8:43 PM
phase ends in 1 hour 20 min
Michael - Last Monday at 8:43 PM
I won't be done by then
Hakulyte - Last Monday at 8:44 PM
kind of wish you asked these sooner tbh
but thats just semantics
still better than doing nothing
Michael - Last Monday at 8:45 PM
Well earlier I hadn't been having thoughts
My job allows my mind to roam freely
Hakulyte - Last Monday at 8:45 PM
im kind upset about nakah not getting grilled
this phase
kinda*
April 11, 2017
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 10:58 AM
hi there
do you have a log with raeko ?
Michael - Last Tuesday at 10:59 AM
Yeah
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 10:59 AM
I want to rule out the world where she's bussing you
Michael - Last Tuesday at 10:59 AM
It's about evan
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 10:59 AM
ah
well, it's still relevant I guess
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 11:00 AM
her voting pattern was you -> nakah
so, it's making me weirdly suspicious of her
Michael - Last Tuesday at 11:01 AM
so I was talking to Haku and he sent me his PMs with Danika... there were a few lines that stuck out to me as her possibly softing PR
-From raeko
I agree that Raeko is acting more wolf as the game goes on
What do you think are the odds of no kill tonight
If wolves kill every night we can navigate into a favorable 1v2
But if they skip one night we have less info and day begins at parity
If there are 2 wolves left at that point they win
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 11:03 AM
can't you just copy paste ?
Michael - Last Tuesday at 11:03 AM
So I think Davy>Soundwave>Roundbox is a good lynch order that covers most of my bases
Not on mobile I can't
Otherwise I would
But that line was important enough to show you right away
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 11:04 AM
gl forcing a lynch on davy
what will happen is that he will get replaced out most likely
and that new player will get heavily interrogated
Michael - Last Tuesday at 11:04 AM
I want Evan replaced before davy
Davys thoughts actually show thought
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 11:05 AM
evan is active sadly
not the kind of active you want
but that still counts as activity

Michael - Last Tuesday at 11:05 AM
Alright
Will consider that for part 2
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 11:05 AM
the real question with eva is..
does her trip ever end?
and will she be able to play like a full day with us?
or something
like, I know you probably don't want to count her trip as game content
but it still is
someone should play around that
like I have similar issues with you
I wonder if you would have joined this discord
if I never said anything to you
but I can't see that being a viable strategy on long term
as either alignment
Michael - Last Tuesday at 11:09 AM
I would have been in the discord on a pc
But not on mobile
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 11:09 AM
well, if that's the case why only at X point of the game and not at the beginning etc.
Michael - Last Tuesday at 11:10 AM
What do you mean
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 11:10 AM
you didnt join discord before choof dying
Michael - Last Tuesday at 11:10 AM
I didn't have a laptop right away, I assumed I'd need one for discord
Because I tried discord on mobile before and it didn't work
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 11:10 AM
I'm pmuch asking how does your laptop/pc availability works
Michael - Last Tuesday at 11:11 AM
It'd work a lot better if I didn't live with control freaks
We have like 5 laptops and a pc at home and nobody is willing to let me use them
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 11:11 AM
im just asking because nakah in last game was like
"im busy, im not here, I don't have time"
but he was viewing thread
and just faking this stuff
Michael - Last Tuesday at 11:11 AM
Heck, one of those laptops is MINE and I can't use it
I was active the whole time
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 11:12 AM
well, yes and no
Michael - Last Tuesday at 11:12 AM
I just was gleaning discord stuff from what people were saying in chat
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 11:12 AM
when you're here yes
but im assuming you have a life
Michael - Last Tuesday at 11:12 AM
Like Soundwave and mellon
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 11:12 AM
(unlike me huehue)
Michael - Last Tuesday at 11:12 AM
Not really, I just work full time
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 11:13 AM
im paranoid about DFR / mellon
and mellon just saved soundwave from death
Michael - Last Tuesday at 11:13 AM
Thinking about quitting this job though,, pay is good but its so boring
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 11:13 AM
based on voting patterns
Michael - Last Tuesday at 11:13 AM
I'm strong shipping Soundwave/Mellon partners
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 11:13 AM
im trying to get a log from DFR / Raeko
but they're both conveniently not talking to me
while being the only online besides you
Michael - Last Tuesday at 11:13 AM
I'll ask dfr for the log too
I gotta get back to work, I'm already over break time
Back in 2 hours
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 11:14 AM
heh okay
Michael - Last Tuesday at 1:05 PM
I'm back

Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 1:06 PM
wb
Michael - Last Tuesday at 1:06 PM
Raeko flinging serious monkey poi
Poo
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 1:06 PM
yeah
Michael - Last Tuesday at 1:06 PM
"His post isn't that long without filler"
Posts a quote of me that is big enough to need a spoiler tag
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 1:06 PM
well, you took a lot of game elements that are difficult to evaluate
@ me / danika / tyrant
but you did make worlds at the end
but it's hard to evaluate the direction the game is really taking
it should be more clear after day phase starts tho
so, this is good I think
Michael - Last Tuesday at 1:07 PM
Yeah I'm evaluating all possible directions is he thing
After I'm done dumping all my thoughts there will be statistically sound courses of action
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 1:09 PM
well, it's a good approach the will most likely work near the end of the game
but it's good to start it now
I did the same thing 3 games ago
in Classic's man
and I see the potential
when everything feels wrong
the hardest part is to finish this and make the wagon work
Michael - Last Tuesday at 1:10 PM
The big problem is eva
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 1:10 PM
I had a theory that tyrant could be in the game
and never replace out
in the scenario where he's talking in 1 on 1
Michael - Last Tuesday at 1:10 PM
We can't include her as a mislynch without losing
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 1:11 PM
and ignoring everything on purpose
the fact that he viewed the thread and didn't vote makes me think so
idk
like if he doesn't do something next phase
Michael - Last Tuesday at 1:11 PM
Yeah I sent him a pm
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 1:11 PM
you can't just ignore that
I did the same yesterday
Michael - Last Tuesday at 1:11 PM
I think he got ut
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 1:11 PM
never got answered
Michael - Last Tuesday at 1:11 PM
Remembered
Didn't answer
Ans has been laying low
Intentionally
He may not realise we can see him viewing thread
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 1:12 PM
how do you interpret that?
with the state of this game?
Michael - Last Tuesday at 1:13 PM
If he doesn't know we can see him, wolf
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 1:13 PM
could be the case
like forgot to log out
before viewing thread

Michael - Last Tuesday at 1:13 PM
If he does know, he's simply gathering info to make reads
And not worrying about the pressure
Davy is one of the pillars of this game
Whether Raeko wants to admit it or not
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 1:14 PM
oh saw that log thing in channel
https://pastebin.com/aPAUvVBT
Pastebin
r3ce | DFR - Last Friday at 6:42 PM whats your read on tokzic ra...
Michael - Last Tuesday at 1:18 PM
Just me or does Raeko tone shift halfway through
This just gives dfr more human points to me
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 1:19 PM
well timestamps do change
is there a part in particular?
Michael - Last Tuesday at 1:20 PM
Roundbox
I think haku paranoia is pretty human
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 1:21 PM
well, roundbox is someone that normally build really solid cases
and he was kind of the middle of trying to do that at eod
but stopped half way
I wish he put his thought together somewhere
Michael - Last Tuesday at 1:21 PM
Then they talk about rb and Raeko just says hmmm yeah
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 1:21 PM
for this phase
Michael - Last Tuesday at 1:21 PM
Rb is wolf
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 1:22 PM
well, he's below the bar of expectations
from himself
Michael - Last Tuesday at 1:22 PM
Townread nakah all game then lynched him over sw
That makes no sense unless his team made him
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 1:22 PM
I haven't checked who roundbox voted
Michael - Last Tuesday at 1:22 PM
Nakah
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 1:22 PM
looks like raeko just posted about you
Michael - Last Tuesday at 1:23 PM
Voted choof dag 1 I believe
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 1:23 PM
well 30min ago
Michael - Last Tuesday at 1:23 PM
Yeah
Throwing monkey poo
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 1:23 PM
yeah roundbox vote on choof felt really fast
I know he had to leave to school
(he's a teacher)
Michael - Last Tuesday at 1:23 PM
My highest sus right now is Soundwave Raeko roundbox
There's some tension between Raeko and Roundbox that I have to look at though
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 1:24 PM
im mostly curious about soundwave/eva/tyrant atm
but can't really helped much
Michael - Last Tuesday at 1:24 PM
And I have to reread the Mellon-Soundwave interaction at beginning of thread
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 1:24 PM
but raeko has been kinda weird
Michael - Last Tuesday at 1:24 PM
No, Soundwave and Davy are incompatible
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 1:25 PM
why so?
Michael - Last Tuesday at 1:25 PM
I went over that part in my post
Davy voted for Soundwave day 1
Do you really think that's a bus knowing what you heard from Davy?
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 1:25 PM
why not?
Michael - Last Tuesday at 1:26 PM
It's not a bus
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 1:26 PM
does he normally never buss?
Michael - Last Tuesday at 1:26 PM
Hissing is not a strategy on nsm
Because 2 votes can kill someone
5 could be an insta
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 1:26 PM
not even with cardflips off ?

Michael - Last Tuesday at 1:27 PM
Back to work for me
Another 2 hours
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 1:27 PM
kk
Michael - Last Tuesday at 5:17 PM
Part 5 was incomplete, had to cut some reads short
So I finish those when I get back then
Part 6: Human Davy Was Wrong
Premise: Davy is human and misread Soundwave. Both are human
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 5:18 PM
:thinking:
how can you decide so many things coming from davy?
am I missing some 1 on 1 from you with him or something?
(can you even be considered an active player if you 1 on 1 only and avoid thread/channel?)
probably an host type of question tho
because theoretically speaking it's still activity
in a way
Michael - Last Tuesday at 5:20 PM
Which leaves

3. FreeznIce
4. Lightknight
5. mellonxcollie
6. tokzic
7. Dabackpack
10. evanescence
11. roundbox

As unconfirmed
(What am I reading from Davy that you don't like)
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 5:21 PM
it's not that I don't like it
it's that for me he simply didn't exist
in the game
and I never played with him before
so, outside of believing blindly idk how to approach him
Michael - Last Tuesday at 5:22 PM
Well in my megapost I quoted him
And said which were wolfy of him and which were human
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 5:22 PM
yeah that's cool and all
but meta can evolve each game
it's crazy difficult imo to be confident about him
Michael - Last Tuesday at 5:23 PM
Like either he's a wolf or he's not a wolf and since he's going to be the most binary I started with him
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 5:23 PM
as someone without experience with him
Michael - Last Tuesday at 5:23 PM
Right, and since Neptune is one of the pillars of this game
I can read a bit more into it
Which is why my thoughts are necessary
Freezin is only a wolf if Soundwave is a wolf, so if Soundwave is human freezin is human
(Quote freezin txt)
Nakah we'll save for another part
Mellonxcollie started easy human read quickly flipped to "terrible at game" read but others seem to think she's good when questioned in voice chat
Thus, could be a wolf but her late game actions are simply too emotional and obvious to be a wolf
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 5:26 PM
mellon is usually human when she's active and wolf when she's low activity
it's silly, but it's working most of the time
Michael - Last Tuesday at 5:26 PM
Part 7: the tokzic and dabackpack paradigm
Tokzic and dbp 1-1 led to tokzic pressuring me, they are pretty much always same alliance
Tokzic doing 180 on me is human, but late game seems to be more wolf than midgame and early game. Is very likely not a wolf if Davy is not a wolf. The same is true for dbp so they both pretty much clear each other
Evanescence- screw this I'm legit gonna flip a coin cause that's what she is atm
Roundbox-is a wolf both with Davy or Soundwave and without
So if we clear both Davy and Soundwave the answer is Raeko evanescence and roundbox
Part 8: nakah
(Quote nakahs txt)
Basically confirmed himself human at the end by his own meta
Wolf would have 100% self preserved

Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 5:32 PM
by the final guess thing ?
Michael - Last Tuesday at 5:32 PM
Human not quite self preserve
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 5:32 PM
ah wagon as well
yeah, I can see it happening
Michael - Last Tuesday at 5:32 PM
His paranoia at Raeko is very human too
So 3C3 is one
We have at the maximum 13 final pairing options for this gamr
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 5:33 PM
what do you think of something like Raeko/Roundbox/Davy ?
my issue with roundbox is that he's been postponing interactions
he's usually online at key moments
Michael - Last Tuesday at 5:35 PM
Disregard for davys skill from Raeko makes them incompatible to me
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 5:35 PM
but hard to join during the rest of the time
to me it would be like an independant game
Michael - Last Tuesday at 5:35 PM
Wolf Raeko would either fake it or react similarly to tokzic
Her reaction seemed genuine and in line with most humans
Roundbox is compatible with everyone which is why he's most likely to be a wolf
So we have Davy-Roundbox-XX which isn't nakah since nakah clears human to me
We have Soundwave-Roundbox-XX which is Eva, Raeko, or freezin, but if freezin is only a wolf because Soundwave is we should put him as town
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 5:37 PM
soundwave comes in mind, but that feels kinda silly
meh if it's eva
but far from impossible
Michael - Last Tuesday at 5:38 PM
And we have Eva Raeko and Roundbox again
Which works given this from nakah
I think he laughed an said the roles are perfect bc theyre dastardly fixed where the players are the least likely to be expected by certain people
Nakah yesterday took that to mean Raeko wolf
And you cleared nakah illegitimately
With a screenshot
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 5:39 PM
well sorry
but he took that screenshot
Michael - Last Tuesday at 5:39 PM
No I'm not getting after you
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 5:40 PM
but there was room for editing it
Michael - Last Tuesday at 5:40 PM
What happens happens and we need to use all our resources
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 5:40 PM
or hiding stuff
from what I've hear, this game doesn't have a deadchat
so, there's a good chance it doesn't have a wolf chat either
players can just make that on their own
Michael - Last Tuesday at 5:40 PM
I see
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 5:41 PM
there's silly stuff
Michael - Last Tuesday at 5:41 PM
So in all instances we play to the endgame, you can see Roundbox is almost certainly a wolf
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 5:41 PM
yeah
Michael - Last Tuesday at 5:41 PM
There are a couple unlikely Soundwave scenarios that exclude him
So all I have left to do is flip a coin for eva
Should head's be wolf or human
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 5:42 PM
eva missing eod and appearing 15min after it was kinda silly
makes you wonder if it was on purpose
considering the phase got extended
from 3pm est to 10 pm est
but that's just a thought
Michael - Last Tuesday at 5:43 PM
She knew it got extended iirc
See I read everything

Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 5:43 PM
im just like wow, your irl sucks if that was legit
Michael - Last Tuesday at 5:43 PM
And she said something about oh phase extends
Wait no that was in response to something tps said
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 5:44 PM
I mean, she's starting to be sketchy on activity
can't really deny that
Michael - Last Tuesday at 5:44 PM
Tell me though should head's equal wolf or human
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 5:44 PM
head's = ?
Michael - Last Tuesday at 5:44 PM
I'm flipping a coin on eva
It's literally what she us
Is
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 5:45 PM
are you a role or something?
meh, probably shouldn't ask that
Michael - Last Tuesday at 5:45 PM
The flip will have 50% effect on that outcome
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 5:45 PM
if you don't trust me
Michael - Last Tuesday at 5:45 PM
But a smaller effect on everything else
No, I'm not a role
I'd tell you if I was
And can you tell me what makes you think that
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 5:46 PM
flip a coin
as you could check her
Michael - Last Tuesday at 5:46 PM
I have no idea what she is
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 5:46 PM
like I'd say she's worth checking
if I had a seer around
Michael - Last Tuesday at 5:46 PM
I think she's equally likely to be wolf or human
Which is why I want to flip a coin
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 5:47 PM
but do you want to force a policy lynch on her?
Michael - Last Tuesday at 5:47 PM
Because my plan fails if we mislynch Eva, I want a decision on her
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 5:47 PM
just pressure?
Michael - Last Tuesday at 5:47 PM
But if we don't lynch her there's an equal chance she's a wolf
Settle it the time-honoured way with a coin flip lol
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 5:48 PM
time for random.org
Michael - Last Tuesday at 5:48 PM
If I'm wrong about anything I accept full responsibility for losing this game
But the math checks out
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 5:48 PM
I have a 0% win rate this year for all my games
Michael - Last Tuesday at 5:49 PM
So is heads going to be wolf or human
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 5:49 PM
prepare for a nightmare tbh
Michael - Last Tuesday at 5:49 PM
You choose
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 5:49 PM
heads human
Michael - Last Tuesday at 5:49 PM
Kk
It's heads
So we're going to assume she's human in Soundwave circles
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 5:50 PM
cool, do the opposite of that
because im the master of being wrong
~
Michael - Last Tuesday at 5:51 PM
Ohhhhhh
Dang you right
Yeah
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 5:51 PM
soundwave's circle?
Michael - Last Tuesday at 5:51 PM
Have you read the hitchhiker guide to the galaxy
Series
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 5:51 PM
do you have some sort of soundwave-eva log?
that's be awesome
lol
Michael - Last Tuesday at 5:51 PM
No, I don't
I have Raeko Eva logs
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 5:52 PM
do you have me / eva ?
Michael - Last Tuesday at 5:52 PM
Which looks a lot to me like Eva going to a wolf partner before the rest of chat
Yeah you sent that to me iirc
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 5:52 PM
ah ok
Michael - Last Tuesday at 5:52 PM
So as you can see I can show my thoughts fairly quickly
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 5:52 PM
yeah
Michael - Last Tuesday at 5:52 PM
I just have to do it convincingly and with research
To make sure town is on the same page
Because if it's sw Roundbox Eva we are never winning vs Raeko and freezin
Unlesstheyre convinced
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 5:53 PM
yeah wagons are going to be a pain
so scattered randomly
I have tendency to associate soundwave with raeko
due to voting patterns this phase
as if she priorized saving soundwave
Michael - Last Tuesday at 5:55 PM
Raeko acting hecka sketch in the last half hour
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 5:55 PM
her read list was kinda sketch imo
Michael - Last Tuesday at 5:55 PM
Yep sw Raeko soundbox looked like wolf comm to me
All voting nakah to save sw
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 5:55 PM
raeko would be kinda bussing roundbox?
based on her reads
Michael - Last Tuesday at 5:55 PM
But I still think Raeko is just idiot humab
Human
Wolves could also no kill
Not going to mention that publicly because dur
Raeko already brought it up so no kill indicates her
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 5:58 PM
I'd be surprised if they do so
Michael - Last Tuesday at 5:59 PM
Well it's beneficial for them
We still only have one mislynch, nobody is confirmed town, we don't get any info from another kill
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 6:00 PM
what do you mean
Michael - Last Tuesday at 6:00 PM
Man I've been working on this game so hard I got ill thinking about it
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 6:00 PM
by only one mislynch?
Michael - Last Tuesday at 6:00 PM
We only have one mislynch left
If there are 3 wolves
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 6:00 PM
oh
I'm assuming it's worse case scenario
Michael - Last Tuesday at 6:01 PM
Yeah
Assuming nakah is human is worst case scenario
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 6:01 PM
well, I think choof was psychic as well
Michael - Last Tuesday at 6:01 PM
Best case is nakah-Davy-soundbox
Worst case tbh
Is me being the greatest wolf player to walk the earth
Which is not remotely believable
If you go to nsm

Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 6:02 PM
I'm still pissed I miss this http://www.flashflashrevolution.com/...&postcount=132
I thought he was just baiting
im glad we share the same vocation
being bad wolves
rofl
well, you probably do better than me
Michael - Last Tuesday at 6:03 PM
We're literally the exact same playstyle
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 6:03 PM
in general
Michael - Last Tuesday at 6:03 PM
Just one of us applied 16 hours of headlogic and math to his argument :^)
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 6:04 PM
I rely on meta/intentions/motives more than objectivity
which is really unfun
Michael - Last Tuesday at 6:04 PM
I can't rely on meta as much this game
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 6:04 PM
unless I have an analytical type of player with me
Michael - Last Tuesday at 6:04 PM
But when objectivity gets you this far
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 6:04 PM
which in this game would have been roundbox
but I can't make him do anything
Michael - Last Tuesday at 6:05 PM
Plus I can read Davy better than anyone else can
His inactivity speaks
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 6:05 PM
considering who's left in this game yeah
Michael - Last Tuesday at 6:05 PM
Tbh I kinda want to die tonight
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 6:06 PM
heh
Michael - Last Tuesday at 6:06 PM
And hand the issue of unruly town over to you
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 6:06 PM
I want to die just to confirm my information
and because im tired of building info
Michael - Last Tuesday at 6:06 PM
May the best man die then?
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 6:06 PM
and seeing others takes no initiative
well, you don't count in this others
but getting players to cooperate has been hard
Michael - Last Tuesday at 6:06 PM
I can feel that
@Raeko
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 6:07 PM
it's like I talk to everyone, share logs, I can't even build info
even without working and sitting there all day
Michael - Last Tuesday at 6:07 PM
At least toxic has been cooperative
Makes him seem wolfy, but yknow
Only with davy
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 6:07 PM
can you picture the joke
if choof was psychic and danika seer
how much garbage this game was
lol
meh ill stop complaining I guess
phase ends in 4 hours or so?
Michael - Last Tuesday at 6:08 PM
That's probably the correct read
Choof psych
Dani seer
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 6:09 PM
like dani must have 1 on 1 someone
Michael - Last Tuesday at 6:09 PM
I just feel like the more experienced players in this game are vanilla
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 6:09 PM
and mess up
or something
I feel like it's something outrageous
Michael - Last Tuesday at 6:09 PM
Remember Raeko felt the danika vibe too
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 6:09 PM
like eva/tyrant
Michael - Last Tuesday at 6:09 PM
One of th earliest ones I think
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 6:09 PM
and something like raeko
Michael - Last Tuesday at 6:09 PM
I could see eva
But Eva will never share logs
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 6:10 PM
eva probably has nothing almost
I only have one conversation from last friday
that you already have
then I couldn't even contact her
just ignored
Michael - Last Tuesday at 6:10 PM
I have Eva Raeko too
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 6:12 PM
if nakah is town
freezin wolf would make sense
based on voice chat
Michael - Last Tuesday at 6:13 PM
Yes but only with Soundwave
Because he's otherwise human
And his voting patterns are identical to sound waves
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 6:16 PM
for me that just makes both possibilities possible
Michael - Last Tuesday at 6:58 PM
Would Raeko wolf herself
Hypothetical question
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 6:58 PM
?
Michael - Last Tuesday at 6:58 PM
If the situation came about where she gains an advantage from doing so
Would she risk it
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 6:59 PM
probably not?
more like I've never seen anyone do that on this forum
Michael - Last Tuesday at 6:59 PM
I would absolutely self nk myself if there were revivers in the game
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 7:00 PM
yeah, we usually never have that
Michael - Last Tuesday at 7:00 PM
And if I had believable reads I'd do it without revivers
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 7:00 PM
like I haven't even seen miller types of roles in forever
Michael - Last Tuesday at 7:00 PM
Dang
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 7:00 PM
master wolf being the only thing
that's close to that
setup are really classic in general
with a few mystery games
Michael - Last Tuesday at 7:01 PM
So you guys typically do no special roles or alliances
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 7:01 PM
but it's usually gunsmith and other stuff
Michael - Last Tuesday at 7:01 PM
Maybe I should make a game heh
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 7:01 PM
we had games with mafia + werewolf
but not often
there's usually 2 classic type of games + a random one
which could be that
like a turbo (12 hours phases), a normal game (48 hours phases) and some sort of setup with more elements in it
well, that's how the trend has been
Michael - Last Tuesday at 7:02 PM
Nsm games lately are always off the wall
You should go read some while we have down time
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 8:59 PM
if raeko was wolf
freezin is with her
and idk who's last wolf

Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 9:00 PM
soundwave could make sense
because vote patterns
roundbox is very likely to be town
but I still hate his game
Michael - Last Tuesday at 9:00 PM
Oh?
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 9:00 PM
choof was town
Michael - Last Tuesday at 9:00 PM
I had him pegged
Wait he's psychic isn't he
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 9:00 PM
no
Michael - Last Tuesday at 9:00 PM
That's why he's bored
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 9:00 PM
he was a town bait
or psychic is lying to me
roundbox had a green check on him too (but could be mw)
I hope I absorb that nk
Michael - Last Tuesday at 9:02 PM
Well I knew he was human anyway
The given choof remember
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 9:02 PM
can you say things without sounding like it's because you know all the flips?
because seriously that kinds of ticks me off
"I knew"
I'm waiting for this phase to ends to see tokzic gets
what*
he just left 'cause he didnt sleep much
Michael - Last Tuesday at 9:05 PM
Are you thinking Davy is a wolf then
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 9:05 PM
nah
eva could be
Michael - Last Tuesday at 9:06 PM
After flipping that coin I'm dead set on eva
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 9:06 PM
but freezin/raeko/soundwave got a team dynamic
and eva dont
Michael - Last Tuesday at 9:06 PM
I felt that too
But freezin is human without looking at teams
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 9:06 PM
freezin is usually even more active
as human
and care more
raeko is getting weirder by the second
and is not longer following any logic with her reads
Michael - Last Tuesday at 9:07 PM
Yes
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 9:07 PM
unlike the beginning of D0
soundwave avoided rip by raeko
Michael - Last Tuesday at 9:07 PM
I think calling her out shook her
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 9:07 PM
and bussing could have happened
yeah
Michael - Last Tuesday at 9:07 PM
And her lynch votes were just
Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 9:07 PM
I think she's starting to feel pressure
Michael - Last Tuesday at 9:07 PM
Wolf
I also thought she's just a terrible human
But everyone said she was a good player
So then Soundwave Eva Raeko?
I like that better than freezin
Or "the nakah three"
So the seer and psychic claimed to you
Do u have them cleared or were they in my potential wolves list
I*

Hakulyte - Last Tuesday at 9:18 PM
potential wolves 1/2
Michael - Last Tuesday at 9:21 PM
Kk
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Old 04-13-2017, 06:16 PM   #280
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Default Re: TWG CLXVI: Fall Of An Empire Game Thread Day 3

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