TWG LXXXIX: Simplicity

[DarkManticoreX2]

The fact that you're bringing up the seer strategies again makes you really suspicious A2P. You haven't taken a stance on anything this whole game. If you wanted me dead, you would have voted me yesterday when I was up for the lynching. Instead, you picked and helped kill tupac.

You've taken no stances the entire game. When I proposed strategies to you d1, you agreed with me and then did nothing about it. When day two rolled around and afro and I fought about the seering stuff, you didn't side with anyone and basically tried not to get involved. Then today rolls around and you pull up with a tiny post

Originally Posted by A2P

Just one quick point here: If he had a good wolf tactic, and he were a wolf, I would think that he would keep it to himself, so that he could talk it over with his wolf buddies in private. That would be the SMART thing for him to do if he were a wolf. Just throwing that out there.

Which isn't a stance at all. It's basically "hey im active but i don't want to take part in this so yeah do what you want!" - and thats what wolves do.

[clarinet89]

After much thought and analyzing and conversations tonight, I've come to a few conclusions.

I don't think Afro is a wolf. He hasn't done anything yet that has hurt the human team.

Through conversations with emerald

[clarinet89]

Oops lets try that again.

After much thought and analyzing and conversations tonight, I've come to a few conclusions.

1. I have been way to inactive during this game. This is a very busy week for me irl, so I apologize for my inactivity. However, I do try to be as active as I can whenever I am on AIM.

2. I don't think Afro is a wolf. I think afro is our best bet to helping us win. He hasn't done anything yet that has hurt the human team, even when he was talking wolf strategy on n1. His arguments against manti were rational, while manti failed to see the holes in his plan and pushed it anyway. That being said, we need to make a decision about manti and we need to do it soon.

3. Through conversations with emerald about A2P, he seems wolfish. With his inactivity, he seems to be playing the role of complacent wolf, as Emerald said.

emerald3x0 (8:52:58 PM):	he seems a complacent wolf
emerald3x0 (8:53:14 PM):	doesn't want to make enemies, so just become friends with everybody by agreeing
clarinet898 (8:53:42 PM):	yeah, that's wolfish
clarinet898 (8:53:59 PM):	lemme read through his posts again
clarinet898 (8:59:53 PM):	wow in the first 7 pages, he's posted like 2 times that were relevant to the game and like twice that weren't
emerald3x0 (9:00:27 PM):	exactly

A2P has been on my wolf list for quite a while and the more that I look at him, the more convinced I am that he is a wolf.

[Afrobean]

wow

at first I was kind of relieved to see people flipflopping on (read: "off of") me, but now this is just ridiculous

[sc979]

Okay, I got around to speaking with pretty much everybody. I'll place a vote on manti before going to sleep.

[Afrobean]

[01:31] Afrobean16: seemed like clarinet was like "oh looks like afro's not getting lynched anymore, and everyone else thinks he's human now, I better go with the flow to look like Im not out of the loop"
[01:31] Afrobean16: in other words
[01:31] Afrobean16: clarinet is probbly a wolf
[01:31] Afrobean16: notice: clarinet is also willing to lynch manti
[01:32] Afrobean16: so he goes from neutral, to wanting to lynch me, to wanting to lynch manti
[01:32] Afrobean16: where was he yesterday when I was trying to get manti lynched?!
[01:32] Afrobean16: same for a2p and sc979!

Seems to me like the wolves want to lynch one of the two of us, and since it looks like I'm not going down now, they want to give it a go with Manti. You missed your chance, guys. If you had been on board yesterday, it could have happened, but not now.

And it looks like I'm no longer in much danger somehow. So I'm going to vote for clarinet. Reason is above.

[sc979]

I'm going to throw this out here. I really don't like how afro has changed his stance on manti.

Sam97379 (12:29:53 AM):	hey
afrobean16 (12:30:06 AM):	oh hi there
Sam97379 (12:30:14 AM):	do you still think manti is a wolf?
afrobean16 (12:31:06 AM):	not sure how to respond to that
afrobean16 (12:31:10 AM):	I feel like he still could be
afrobean16 (12:31:16 AM):	but if he is, the game is already lost
afrobean16 (12:31:27 AM):	so Ive chosen to play it with trust from here on
Sam97379 (12:32:04 AM):	he tried to contact you through AIM earlier today, right?
Sam97379 (12:32:11 AM):	could I see the log?
afrobean16 (12:33:02 AM):	dont have it, not here at work
afrobean16 (12:33:24 AM):	and frankly, I dont trust you enough anyway given the sorts of things we discussed
Sam97379 (12:33:27 AM):	why would you say the game is already lost if manti's a wolf?
afrobean16 (12:33:35 AM):	because he wont be lynched
afrobean16 (12:33:46 AM):	the plebes wont allowit
Sam97379 (12:34:58 AM):	I just don't like how you tried to get each other lynched last day phase and now both trust each other now
afrobean16 (12:35:09 AM):	;)
afrobean16 (12:35:13 AM):	lol
afrobean16 (12:35:23 AM):	who said we both trust each other
Sam97379 (12:35:42 AM):	I had also asked manti if he still thought you were a wolf
Sam97379 (12:35:53 AM):	DarkManticoreX2 (11:44:09 PM): small chance, but after we talked i kinda doubt it
afrobean16 (12:36:14 AM):	thats kind of also how I feel
afrobean16 (12:36:24 AM):	but Ive chosen to play it as absolute trust
Sam97379 (12:36:35 AM):	ok, so maybe you don't exactly completely trust each other, but you've both voted the same guy right now
afrobean16 (12:36:40 AM):	because I figure if he is a wolf, this game is unwinnable at this point anyway
afrobean16 (12:36:47 AM):	uh
afrobean16 (12:36:52 AM):	I was on the chopping block bro
afrobean16 (12:36:55 AM):	Id be voting for anyone
afrobean16 (12:37:08 AM):	Im honestly not too keen on a2p getting lycnhed
afrobean16 (12:37:21 AM):	prior to today I was pretty sure the guy was human
Sam97379 (1:10:46 AM):	by the way, it seems clarinet will be willing to vote for manti, and I am willing to do it too
afrobean16 (1:13:05 AM):	not gonna happen bro
afrobean16 (1:13:22 AM):	even if I wanted to at this point, flipping back at manti would mean the death of me

[Afrobean]

Originally Posted by sc979

I'm going to throw this out here. I don't think people should be able to change their mind!

Why do you feel that way? Why shouldn't I be able to change my mind?

[sc979]

The circumstances surrounding this particular change.

Originally Posted by afro

I think manti might be a wolf, but I'm gonna trust him completely!

[Afrobean]

cry me a river, bro

Yeah, that's kinda funny, huh, but what you gonna do, cry about it?

[sc979]

I could do this.

afro

[Gun92]

Whats the vote count?

[clarinet89]

Originally Posted by Afrobean

[01:31] Afrobean16: seemed like clarinet was like "oh looks like afro's not getting lynched anymore, and everyone else thinks he's human now, I better go with the flow to look like Im not out of the loop"
[01:31] Afrobean16: in other words
[01:31] Afrobean16: clarinet is probbly a wolf
[01:31] Afrobean16: notice: clarinet is also willing to lynch manti
[01:32] Afrobean16: so he goes from neutral, to wanting to lynch me, to wanting to lynch manti
[01:32] Afrobean16: where was he yesterday when I was trying to get manti lynched?!
[01:32] Afrobean16: same for a2p and sc979!

Seems to me like the wolves want to lynch one of the two of us, and since it looks like I'm not going down now, they want to give it a go with Manti. You missed your chance, guys. If you had been on board yesterday, it could have happened, but not now.

This is not the case though. I decided it was time to stop being so wishy-washy and make a decision for once. After looking long and hard at pretty much everything, I came to the decisions I did. I was literally 50/50 about whether or not you were a wolf. I was telling people that I was thinking that you were a wolf, but after going through your posts and some conversations, I realized that I was failing to see that you look more human than wolf.

About the willing to lynch manti thing, I never even said that. All I said was that we need to make a decision about him. A lot of people that I've talked to told me that they think one of you is still a wolf. Sc said it to me last night.

[Afrobean]

Originally Posted by sc979

I could do this.

afro

Guess I have to go back to A2P then.

[Afrobean]

Originally Posted by someone on aim

Read your reasons for voting Clari down, and if you really think the wolfs are off after you or manti, why not vote Sc, as shes the one that brought you back into the lynching range?

Because voting for sc979 wouldn't help me stay alive. If I vote for anyone but A2P, I'll be in a KiB., so my hand is forced even though I would much rather vote for someone else.

[sc979]

Continuing with the second to last post I made, I ask afro why he trusts manti. He says that even if manti was a wolf, the game is lost, so he might as well. I ask him why he thinks the game is lost. He says because people don't have enough courage to put votes on manti.

I then tell him that that this is not true; there are people that might do it. Okay, so I sorta made up that clari was willing to vote manti, but it didn't seem like she was against it. My vote on manti earlier was to get a reaction. It looks like afro's now trying to defend manti. It doesn't add up.

[Makilaz]

A2P - 4 - Manti, emerald, Clari, arfo

Afrobean - 3 - Viccica, PandaExpress, sc979

PandaExpress - 1 - u84

Emerald- 1 - Ruritsu

Manti - 1 - A2P

Phantoms are awarded to: Gun92

EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY GUN HAS BEEN KICKED OUT DUE TO PHANTOMS AND HAS BEEN REPLACED BY TRAVMAN301.

Also A2P was lynched. Sucks to be you, dude.

Night 4 begins now, ending in 24 hours. 10/23/09 (Fri) 2:00 PM EST

1. travman301 (rbennie362)
2. Ac1Speakerbox (Ac1Colossus)
3. Clarinet89 (clarinet898)
4. Afrobean (Afrobean16)
5. DarkManticoreX2 (DarkManticoreX2)
6. FictionJunction (FikshonJunkshon)
7. Syhto (amanetora)
8. A2P (awesome lamer)
9. Ruritsu (Ruritsu)
10. u84 (u8477)
11. sc979 (sam97379)
12. Viccica (mmviccica)
13. emerald000 (emerald3x0)
14. tupacodaman (tupacodaman)
15. Panda Express (helljumperdragon)
16. BDN (megamngtx)

[Panda Express]

Hey Wolves, do an insta-wolf so we can get on with this. No one seems to be talking while we await your next victim.

Now that you've all put A2P out of the way, we should reconsider all the theories out there (which there seems to be a storm of) and evaluate whether any of them still hold their merit, which I'd assume most of them do.

[Afrobean]

Originally Posted by Panda Express

Now that you've all put A2P out of the way, we should reconsider all the theories out there (which there seems to be a storm of) and evaluate whether any of them still hold their merit, which I'd assume most of them do.

No, most of the old plans hold little or no merit anymore. That's why they were abandoned along the way.

What we need is new ideas. New directions. Don't get hung up on the past and what has happened already, look to the future.

Because if we haven't gotten any wolves yet, this day will be the last day. Could still be the last day if any sloppy votes are made; the wolves could dive bomb on and insta for the win. Be careful who you vote for tomorrow. Talk things out before placing any votes.

ps panda, in all seriousness, I'm sure you of all people know whether the wolf kill has been sent in or not. The reason day hasn't started yet is because of the host keeping time consistent, not because of PMs not being sent or because of wolves wanting to wait until the last second.

[Viccica]

I'd have to disagree. I think it's worth looking at a few things that have been brought up already for the sake of not leaving any loose ends. We can't afford to leave out anything.


If we managed to play an incredibly horrible game and 4 wolves are alive, one vote on a human is all they'd need to ensure a win.




To those who haven't gotten there yet:
8 players - 4 wolves = 4 humans.
Insta = 5 votes.
1 human vote + 4 wolf votes = insta.

Wolf-human ratio: 4:3 at the start of night phase.


^Posting for the sake of not answering questions later.

The benefit of if we survive this phase being that we know we've hit at least one wolf.




Since this next day phase could potentially be a very important phase, we shouldn't ignore anything that hasn't been fully disproved.



Even if you may think it's behind us, needless to say last lynch wasn't a unanimous decision. If I recall, it was almost your head on the chopping block instead of A2P's. So aside from you being bored/trying to take the pressure off of you, what reason do you have for not addressing past issues?