What are the Odds?

[-zeroSKILL-]

Originally Posted by izzy on youtube

WTFizzy (37 minutes ago) Show Hide
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I have 2 of these.

lol

ps, your car sucks.

here's mine.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yMGDm352pJ8

wanna race?

[devonin]

Originally Posted by wargasm1

Why make a video just to let us know we'll never own one. I got one for ya, what are the chance i give a damn about it? 1:999,999,999, I win.

See, this is exactly what Rubix was talking about. You already know you don't give a damn, so there's no odds at all. The chances you give a damn are 0 in 1. The chances that you don't give a damn are 1 in 1.

[Oni-Paranoia]

15 models divided by 6 billion people = 1:4,000,000,000 to actually own one.

"Statistically"

[Card Man]

Glad you guys liked it; sorry if I didn't "present" it well. I just thought it was a cool video. It isn't often you see commercials like that; even if the statistics of chance are not correct.

[One Winged Angel]

I think you mean 400 mill.

[MrRubix]

It's actually closer to 7 billion now (6.8 or something), which is why their statistic seemed a bit strange to me, as it implies 10 cars/7 billion people = 1 car per 700 million = 1:700 "chance" of owning that car. I was under the assumption they were making 15 cars, but whatever.

As for their Mt. Everest stat, I'm assuming that 3500 or so have made it, because it seems like they just did 3500/7 billion = 1 in 2 million (which is absolutely retarded if they did it this way). The 1/20 death statistic is probably 175/3500 = 1:20 (175 people dead to date on Everest after having made it to the summit). Too lazy to check these numbers to see if they're anywhere NEAR the real frequencies, but I bet you they're not too far off, as it's probably how they went about calculating things.

[Laah]

God...Rubix = smart

[MrRubix]

Decided to check Wiki:

"By the end of the 2008 climbing season, there had been 4,102 ascents to the summit by about 2,700 individuals"

And from a few sites found via Google, it would seem as if there have been a total of 200 deaths or so.

From Extreme Science, they say about 6,000 people have even attempted to TRY Mt. Everest.



From that alone, 2,700/6,000 = 45% of the people who attempt Everest actually make it. This might seem fairly high, but consider the fact that you probably wouldn't even try to climb Everest in the first place unless you felt you had a reasonable shot (your life is on the line, after all), considering that you'd have to know what you were doing/be in proper physical shape/etc, so it's probably a somewhat self-selective pool.

200/2700 = 7.5% of those people died (the real number is probably a lot lower than this, because I would assume 200 includes TOTAL deaths and I assume there are more deaths on the way up than on the way down, so the real statistic should probably be < 3.75%-4% or so, which is actually not too far off from the 1/20 -> 5% statistic the commercial gave.






tldr: A 1 in 2 million frequency quote is not a very good way to describe the success rate of reaching the top of Everest.


EDIT: One thing I do find funny is that despite the fact they decided to basically use the world's population as the denominator in many of their calculations (which is retarded because a success rate should be number of successes/(number of successes + number of failures)), they decided to crunch down the denominator for the death statistic. I guess they decided that the chances of dying on the back from Mt. Everest is 200/7 billion = 1:35 million were obviously too low but didn't bother to consider this logic for any other of their stats, lmao.

[MrRubix]

Anyways **** the math SEXY CAR SEXY CAR I want to make love to it. I want to bang it. I want to **** it. I want to have little Lamborghini-Rubik's Cube babies.

[MrRubix]

Originally Posted by Oni-Paranoia

15 models divided by 6 billion people = 1:4,000,000,000 to actually own one.

"Statistically"

LMAOOOOOOoo bahahahahah, too many zeroes there, buddy.

[Oni-Paranoia]

Originally Posted by MrRubix

LMAOOOOOOoo bahahahahah, too many zeroes there, buddy.

Oops

400,000,000* You get the fu*king point

P.s. Your math against all that bs of blablabla yea yea we all know it's not exactly true.

Don't take the glory of a beautiful car as it's having it's "you can't own me unless your lucky (eh.. hem.. rich *cough*)" moment =)

[MrRubix]

We know it's not true, but god damn, we need to hold humanity to a higher standard, here.

Staying on topic though, that car is amazing. Google Images doesn't do it justice.

[ThisGuy'sADick]

So then what are the odds of climbing Mt. Everest, finding a Lamborghini at the top, making it back down alive and then giving birth to a Nobel Prize winner?

[MrRubix]

In that order? :P

[ThisGuy'sADick]

Yes. It must be in that exact order.

[MrRubix]

If you can give me a few million dollars, the probability is 100%.

You don't even want to know how I can ensure this.

[ThisGuy'sADick]

You want it in cash or what?

[MrRubix]

Asian hookers, cookies, and bagels will suffice.

[Lucmarceau]

Originally Posted by Laah

God...Rubix = a joke

Fixed

[UserNameGoesHere]

Originally Posted by devonin

See, this is exactly what Rubix was talking about. You already know you don't give a damn, so there's no odds at all. The chances you give a damn are 0 in 1. The chances that you don't give a damn are 1 in 1.

This assumes his mind was made up from the start. Prior to having clicked the link or viewing the video, there is a chance it would have interested him. After having clicked the link or viewing the video, he concluded it did not interest him. Chances after the fact are always 100% in the direction of whatever actually happened. There is a 100% chance after I post this that I would have posted it. Prior to my actual posting, this could not be guaranteed.

---

Mr Rubix, how can you ensure with 100% certainty, even with a few million, that you will have a biological child and that your child will become a Nobel prize winner?

---

About the car: How in the world would you maintain this thing even if you did own it? Surely it must have entirely specialized and/or hard to get parts. I imagine these to be quite difficult to replace, even assuming money was not a factor.

About the advertisement: It's a perfect advertisement. Statistics, without further backing, are mostly meaningless anyhow since they can be manipulated in almost any form or fashion. Manipulation is inherent in the field of advertisement. In any case, this is a perfect advertisement because it caters towards its target audience which would be the group of ridiculously wealthy, and it manipulates them to want it, by appeal to an innate desire for scarcity and an implicit "special" quality. What I mean by special is it makes them feel as though they are somehow more noble or more worthy the more "fate" smiles on them. So if the odds are low, surely, a potential buyer is led to believe, if I have this car, I am a rare one indeed, and also a better person because of it! It's all in the manipulation of the target audience.