Old 05-2-2020, 08:20 PM   #2741
Bolth mannn
FFR Veteran
FFR Veteran
 
Bolth mannn's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Age: 25
Posts: 2,117
Default Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

I donít think we should be looking at statistical probabilities as a method to solve the setup, cause realistically both of those setups are possible
__________________
TeAm wAcKy cOOl AlLiAncE

-TWG 196
Bolth mannn is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-2-2020, 08:21 PM   #2742
Bolth mannn
FFR Veteran
FFR Veteran
 
Bolth mannn's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Age: 25
Posts: 2,117
Default Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

Depending on whatever the soft is, Iím gonna choose to believe both MML and dbp or Iím gonna probably vote dbp
__________________
TeAm wAcKy cOOl AlLiAncE

-TWG 196
Bolth mannn is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-2-2020, 08:21 PM   #2743
ShadoWolfe
FFR Player
 
ShadoWolfe's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: On a life-size Flat Earth model
Posts: 136
Default Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bolth mannn View Post
I donít think we should be looking at statistical probabilities as a method to solve the setup, cause realistically both of those setups are possible
Sure, but when someone says the difference is marginal and "effectively the same", then that has to be corrected if the one possibility is 27 times more likely than the other.. right?
__________________





Quote:
Originally Posted by Hakulyte
I followed the "by the book" play, but I was reading the "not to do" page.
Quote:
Originally Posted by XelNya View Post
" I'd suck a dick in a dark, dark alley."
Quote:
Originally Posted by YoshL View Post
"i gave you 20 ducks, and spent a lot of time making one of them quack, and pointed at the particular one and asked "is that one the worst quacker"" ... "you could still give somewhat of an answer based on the quality of the quacks, and the other random quacks from the ducks surrounding that weren't the center of focus."
Quote:
Originally Posted by mellon_collie
"I love Wolfe's duck avi so much. Shado's Duck Shrine is the best!!
ShadoWolfe is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-2-2020, 08:21 PM   #2744
leetic
FFR Player
 
leetic's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2020
Posts: 5
Default Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

It wouldn't have really been that big a risk for DBP to claim. DBP was near insta twice and the thread climate was very much against him. I've seen scum make last ditch claims like that all the time, even though they usually aren't successful.
leetic is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-2-2020, 08:24 PM   #2745
DaBackpack
~ お ま ん こ ~
 
DaBackpack's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2014
Location: unlikely
Age: 27
Posts: 931
Send a message via Skype™ to DaBackpack
Default Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

I knew this was gonna be too obtuse but it was too fun to stick in there, and plus it's a soft that nobody else can use to PR hunt me (or so I thought) and only would make sense unless I explained what's so special about SNNs

Quote:
Originally Posted by DaBackpack View Post
what's up gamers

who's ready to get spiked?

[img]https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Deboleena_Roy4/publication/333854733/figure/fig1/AS:771197960732674@1560879330562/The-dynamics-of-a-spiking-neural-network-SNN-A-A-two-layer-feed-forward-SNN-at-any.png[/twg]
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaBackpack View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaBackpack View Post
that's right fellas. Spiking Neural Network has entered the chat.

Real talk though. What neural coding we dropping at boys?
when any neuron in the network fires, it inhibits the activation of any "nearby" neurons. this is commonly believed to be an energy-efficiency measure in the human brain so that it doesn't need 100 neurons to fire when 1 neuron has the same information. the metaphor here is that when I "activate" I "block" another neuron from firing. it's something that nobody else would ever get on their own, but was also something that was DISTINCTLY roleblocker and not angel, cop, etc. (except I guess for mason, which Xiz misinterpreted it as)

Quote:
Originally Posted by DaBackpack View Post
it's on page 2 of my spiking character sheet
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaBackpack View Post
spiking
following is a literal soft, replying to a question about town roleblockers

Quote:
Originally Posted by DaBackpack View Post
there are town roleblockers in this setup
one of the reasons I blew up against Xiz was that he was PR hunting me and Duskfall. Xiz brought up the spiking neural networks thing as why he thought I was a mason so I made it a point to dismiss it entirely for self-protection. After Xiz says that he read my opening posts as softs:

Quote:
Originally Posted by DaBackpack View Post
the spiking NN thing was just because I had just delivered a work talk about spiking NNs and I was gonna do some stupid meme entrance to this game

there is no semantic significance to those posts
when FFA fakeclaiming cop, I got excited made some references to him getting spiked if he didn't rescind his claim

before he hardclaimed, I left these references to see if he would back off of me without me needing to out myself:

(b-buddy being deliberate)

Quote:
Originally Posted by DaBackpack View Post
These pages are the mechanisms by which the blocker neuron stifles the activity of other neurons in the network.

Five hours later I came back and just full-claimed because FFA was totally willing to throw the game for his own ego and stubbornness

Quote:
Originally Posted by DaBackpack View Post
Alright well I was gonna try to do this without claiming but fuck you guys for putting me at L-1 AGAIN

I'm hard claiming roleblocker. Night 1 I sheathed, last night I roleblocked FFA. He is 100% full of shit, please lynch this asshole
that's how I created a context for softing roleblocker that should have been 100% safe against PR hunting
__________________


Quote:
Originally Posted by TWG Dan Hedgehog View Post
there are 743 matches for hedgehog suicide on deviantart
that's kind of a sad statistic
DaBackpack is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-2-2020, 08:24 PM   #2746
Bolth mannn
FFR Veteran
FFR Veteran
 
Bolth mannn's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Age: 25
Posts: 2,117
Default Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by ShadoWolfe View Post
Sure, but when someone says the difference is marginal and "effectively the same", then that has to be corrected if the one possibility is 27 times more likely than the other.. right?


Yea I suppose, I mean math isnít really my thing either, but I wouldnít decide a vote based on something being more mathematically likely in any case, unless it was like obscenely ridiculous odds
__________________
TeAm wAcKy cOOl AlLiAncE

-TWG 196
Bolth mannn is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-2-2020, 08:27 PM   #2747
Hakulyte
FFR & TWG Player
Retired StaffFFR Veteran
 
Hakulyte's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 4,122
Default Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

Looks like we're approaching the leap of faith lottery game where DBP/MML were both town and all the outsiders have the entire wolf team.
Hakulyte is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 05-2-2020, 08:28 PM   #2748
Hakulyte
FFR & TWG Player
Retired StaffFFR Veteran
 
Hakulyte's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 4,122
Default Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

Bolth hard claim please.
Hakulyte is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 05-2-2020, 08:28 PM   #2749
DaBackpack
~ お ま ん こ ~
 
DaBackpack's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2014
Location: unlikely
Age: 27
Posts: 931
Send a message via Skype™ to DaBackpack
Default Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by ShadoWolfe View Post
Sure, but when someone says the difference is marginal and "effectively the same", then that has to be corrected if the one possibility is 27 times more likely than the other.. right?
No because you're not considering the actual statistical distribution of setups in the entire game. What's the standard deviation? It might be the case that TTTT is the "mean" set of T rolls, but even though the literal probability of TT is off by 25x, that 25x difference doesn't mean anything until you do a more comprehensive analysis and contextualize it against the other T-rolls. For example, TT is more likely than TTTTTTT and TTTTTT. So yeah, TTTT is more likely than TT but not in a meaningful way-- it's still like the 3rd-4th most likely outcome if you roll the entire setup

you can prove this with Monte-Carlo simulation if you want to
__________________


Quote:
Originally Posted by TWG Dan Hedgehog View Post
there are 743 matches for hedgehog suicide on deviantart
that's kind of a sad statistic
DaBackpack is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-2-2020, 08:32 PM   #2750
leetic
FFR Player
 
leetic's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2020
Posts: 5
Default Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

DBP's soft seems like a bit of a stretch. It's not something that has an obvious connection with the role like my soft
leetic is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-2-2020, 08:34 PM   #2751
ShadoWolfe
FFR Player
 
ShadoWolfe's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: On a life-size Flat Earth model
Posts: 136
Default Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by DaBackpack View Post
No because you're not considering the actual statistical distribution of setups in the entire game. What's the standard deviation? It might be the case that TTTT is the "mean" set of T rolls, but even though the literal probability of TT is off by 25x, that 25x difference doesn't mean anything until you do a more comprehensive analysis and contextualize it against the other T-rolls. For example, TT is more likely than TTTTTTT and TTTTTT. So yeah, TTTT is more likely than TT but not in a meaningful way-- it's still like the 3rd-4th most likely outcome if you roll the entire setup

you can prove this with Monte-Carlo simulation if you want to
I mean, you're not wrong with this but it's irrelevant because I'm not focusing on just the TT vs TTTT. The more important change is BBB vs just B.

That's why I calculated probability for the two likeliest setups given the existing claims, in full, instead of just comparing TTTT/TT or BBB/B.
__________________





Quote:
Originally Posted by Hakulyte
I followed the "by the book" play, but I was reading the "not to do" page.
Quote:
Originally Posted by XelNya View Post
" I'd suck a dick in a dark, dark alley."
Quote:
Originally Posted by YoshL View Post
"i gave you 20 ducks, and spent a lot of time making one of them quack, and pointed at the particular one and asked "is that one the worst quacker"" ... "you could still give somewhat of an answer based on the quality of the quacks, and the other random quacks from the ducks surrounding that weren't the center of focus."
Quote:
Originally Posted by mellon_collie
"I love Wolfe's duck avi so much. Shado's Duck Shrine is the best!!
ShadoWolfe is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-2-2020, 08:36 PM   #2752
DaBackpack
~ お ま ん こ ~
 
DaBackpack's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2014
Location: unlikely
Age: 27
Posts: 931
Send a message via Skype™ to DaBackpack
Default Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by ShadoWolfe View Post
I mean, you're not wrong with this but it's irrelevant because I'm not focusing on just the TT vs TTTT. The more important change is BBB vs just B.

That's why I calculated probability for the two likeliest setups given the existing claims, in full, instead of just comparing TTTT/TT or BBB/B.
Yeah, all other non-T roles have the same 10% chance. AAB is the same as VCB is the same as BBB. The number of T slots is the only significant factor--- the other slots are uniformly 10% for each one
__________________


Quote:
Originally Posted by TWG Dan Hedgehog View Post
there are 743 matches for hedgehog suicide on deviantart
that's kind of a sad statistic
DaBackpack is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-2-2020, 08:36 PM   #2753
MixMasterLar
Beach Bum Extraordinaire
FFR Simfile Author
 
MixMasterLar's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: The Emerald Coast
Posts: 5,066
Send a message via AIM to MixMasterLar Send a message via Skype™ to MixMasterLar
Default Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by DaBackpack View Post
....ok, at that point either we believe DBP had planned the soft for a really long time or he's legit.

Meaning town literally just imploded on itself this game and wolves didnt even have to work for it.

What utter fools we are. I'm starting to get fucking livid about it again. I fucking wish i had just paid enough attention to had call out FFA's bullshit claim myself and keep DBP hidden instead of letting stupid town out two fu king PRs
__________________

Facebook / Youtube / Twitter
I have a Let's Play Channel that I update weekly
(most of the time)
Subscribe and be a part of the fun!



Quote:
Originally Posted by roundbox View Post
Achievement unlocked: reading the setup
Quote:
Originally Posted by TWG Mad Dummy (Neee) View Post
But, I mean, shado claimed to seer check his N0 on N4, so obvs there's some NEXT LEVEL SHIT going down..
Quote:
Originally Posted by the sun fan View Post
I have beat my meat to storn's posts no less than four times
.
MixMasterLar is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-2-2020, 08:37 PM   #2754
ShadoWolfe
FFR Player
 
ShadoWolfe's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: On a life-size Flat Earth model
Posts: 136
Default Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

@DBP if you're town, then yesterday must've been somewhat illuminating for you, no?

being in the center of that clusterfuck, what were you thinking about the people commenting on your slot and did anyone stick out to you as having a particular agenda?
__________________





Quote:
Originally Posted by Hakulyte
I followed the "by the book" play, but I was reading the "not to do" page.
Quote:
Originally Posted by XelNya View Post
" I'd suck a dick in a dark, dark alley."
Quote:
Originally Posted by YoshL View Post
"i gave you 20 ducks, and spent a lot of time making one of them quack, and pointed at the particular one and asked "is that one the worst quacker"" ... "you could still give somewhat of an answer based on the quality of the quacks, and the other random quacks from the ducks surrounding that weren't the center of focus."
Quote:
Originally Posted by mellon_collie
"I love Wolfe's duck avi so much. Shado's Duck Shrine is the best!!
ShadoWolfe is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-2-2020, 08:40 PM   #2755
DaBackpack
~ お ま ん こ ~
 
DaBackpack's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2014
Location: unlikely
Age: 27
Posts: 931
Send a message via Skype™ to DaBackpack
Default Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by leetic View Post
DBP's soft seems like a bit of a stretch. It's not something that has an obvious connection with the role like my soft
I was having fun ok

as a soft it's an encryption mechanism that nobody else can independently solve to nightkill me and has exactly one proper semantic meaning as a soft: roleblocker

Spiking NNs in particular are the only ones with the blocking mechanism, that's literally the thing that makes them unique

it should be pretty fucking obvious by now that I'm a roleblocker and I'm pretty annoyed that I have to spend my time defending it against stupid standards and tinfoil possibilities
__________________


Quote:
Originally Posted by TWG Dan Hedgehog View Post
there are 743 matches for hedgehog suicide on deviantart
that's kind of a sad statistic
DaBackpack is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-2-2020, 08:40 PM   #2756
Bolth mannn
FFR Veteran
FFR Veteran
 
Bolth mannn's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Age: 25
Posts: 2,117
Default Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hakulyte View Post
Bolth hard claim please.


I did earlier

VT
__________________
TeAm wAcKy cOOl AlLiAncE

-TWG 196
Bolth mannn is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-2-2020, 08:44 PM   #2757
MixMasterLar
Beach Bum Extraordinaire
FFR Simfile Author
 
MixMasterLar's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: The Emerald Coast
Posts: 5,066
Send a message via AIM to MixMasterLar Send a message via Skype™ to MixMasterLar
Default Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

....

I'll believe DBP
I'll believe Leetic

----
I think Shadow is getting a free pass here because the thread is nuts, but I had Uli has town and he's being after

----
I've no strong reason to townread Dusk
I've no strong reason to townread Haku
I've no reason whatever to townread Bolth
I've no reason whatever to even keep Jessie alive

If not for the complete clusterhell that are these claims, i probably would have voted Jessie last phase

Dusk and Haku had attempted blocks. One most certainly was blocked. From my perspective in reads it comes down to Bolth and Jessie likely scum, so who doea it nake sense for them to be partner with the most outta Dusk and Haku
__________________

Facebook / Youtube / Twitter
I have a Let's Play Channel that I update weekly
(most of the time)
Subscribe and be a part of the fun!



Quote:
Originally Posted by roundbox View Post
Achievement unlocked: reading the setup
Quote:
Originally Posted by TWG Mad Dummy (Neee) View Post
But, I mean, shado claimed to seer check his N0 on N4, so obvs there's some NEXT LEVEL SHIT going down..
Quote:
Originally Posted by the sun fan View Post
I have beat my meat to storn's posts no less than four times
.
MixMasterLar is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-2-2020, 08:44 PM   #2758
MixMasterLar
Beach Bum Extraordinaire
FFR Simfile Author
 
MixMasterLar's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: The Emerald Coast
Posts: 5,066
Send a message via AIM to MixMasterLar Send a message via Skype™ to MixMasterLar
Default Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

Haku did you link me your old reads list or did you never make any?
__________________

Facebook / Youtube / Twitter
I have a Let's Play Channel that I update weekly
(most of the time)
Subscribe and be a part of the fun!



Quote:
Originally Posted by roundbox View Post
Achievement unlocked: reading the setup
Quote:
Originally Posted by TWG Mad Dummy (Neee) View Post
But, I mean, shado claimed to seer check his N0 on N4, so obvs there's some NEXT LEVEL SHIT going down..
Quote:
Originally Posted by the sun fan View Post
I have beat my meat to storn's posts no less than four times
.
MixMasterLar is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-2-2020, 08:45 PM   #2759
MixMasterLar
Beach Bum Extraordinaire
FFR Simfile Author
 
MixMasterLar's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: The Emerald Coast
Posts: 5,066
Send a message via AIM to MixMasterLar Send a message via Skype™ to MixMasterLar
Default Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by MixMasterLar View Post
....
----
I think Shadow is getting a free pass here because the thread is nuts, but I had Uli has town and he's being after
After?

Trying to say around here
__________________

Facebook / Youtube / Twitter
I have a Let's Play Channel that I update weekly
(most of the time)
Subscribe and be a part of the fun!



Quote:
Originally Posted by roundbox View Post
Achievement unlocked: reading the setup
Quote:
Originally Posted by TWG Mad Dummy (Neee) View Post
But, I mean, shado claimed to seer check his N0 on N4, so obvs there's some NEXT LEVEL SHIT going down..
Quote:
Originally Posted by the sun fan View Post
I have beat my meat to storn's posts no less than four times
.
MixMasterLar is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-2-2020, 08:46 PM   #2760
Bolth mannn
FFR Veteran
FFR Veteran
 
Bolth mannn's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Age: 25
Posts: 2,117
Default Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

Whatís the chances they are both scum?
__________________
TeAm wAcKy cOOl AlLiAncE

-TWG 196
Bolth mannn is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 11:39 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.1
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright FlashFlashRevolution