Old 05-2-2020, 07:52 PM   #2721
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Default Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

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Originally Posted by DaBackpack View Post
for this world you would have to believe that either Haku is my wolf partner and he got blocked or that I deliberately sent-in a no-kill and made an unnecessary gamble that relied on MML not targeting any of my wolf partners

and you would have to believe that I picked a single-letter fakeclaim instead of the safer double-letter fakeclaim and that I would be willing to sacrifice myself that phase even if I knew mechanically that Mikey was lying and didn't have to fakeclaim at all?

and also that I fake softed roleblocker as early as D0 and nothing else, which is the same as committing to a potential 1-letter role which was way more dangerous than a 2-letter role (again)
First of all, "fake softed roleblocker" doesn't sound good and I can't find the post in question. Secondly, why would you send a no-kill? Simple, to make your claim more believable when Mikey's flip would put it into question and to help push forward a potential mislynch. It's MyLo, it's not like scum has anything to lose.
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Old 05-2-2020, 07:53 PM   #2722
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Default Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

I feel like I either have to believe both of MML and DBP or believe none of them...

It just seems like too many things would have to fall into place for yesterday to work if only one of those two are scum
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Old 05-2-2020, 07:55 PM   #2723
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Default Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by DaBackpack View Post
25% outcome vs. 1% outcome is effectively the same, statistically, because of how the game is rolled
I dont know about that....
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Originally Posted by roundbox View Post
Achievement unlocked: reading the setup
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But, I mean, shado claimed to seer check his N0 on N4, so obvs there's some NEXT LEVEL SHIT going down..
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Old 05-2-2020, 07:57 PM   #2724
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Default Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by leetic View Post
First of all, "fake softed roleblocker" doesn't sound good.
Ok to be fair, he's saying for you to believe the quoted post you had to believe he faked it as early as d0

Bro they must be big on slips where your from this is like the 5th time you tried pointing out wording that had no business being pointed out.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by roundbox View Post
Achievement unlocked: reading the setup
Quote:
Originally Posted by TWG Mad Dummy (Neee) View Post
But, I mean, shado claimed to seer check his N0 on N4, so obvs there's some NEXT LEVEL SHIT going down..
Quote:
Originally Posted by the sun fan View Post
I have beat my meat to storn's posts no less than four times
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Old 05-2-2020, 07:58 PM   #2725
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Default Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bolth mannn View Post
I feel like I either have to believe both of MML and DBP or believe none of them...

It just seems like too many things would have to fall into place for yesterday to work if only one of those two are scum
If both of us are scum then explain my claim. And no, before you repeat what FFA tried to say, my second claim doesnt back up DBP at all.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by roundbox View Post
Achievement unlocked: reading the setup
Quote:
Originally Posted by TWG Mad Dummy (Neee) View Post
But, I mean, shado claimed to seer check his N0 on N4, so obvs there's some NEXT LEVEL SHIT going down..
Quote:
Originally Posted by the sun fan View Post
I have beat my meat to storn's posts no less than four times
.
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Old 05-2-2020, 08:01 PM   #2726
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Default Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bolth mannn View Post
I feel like I either have to believe both of MML and DBP or believe none of them...

It just seems like too many things would have to fall into place for yesterday to work if only one of those two are scum
They're not partners. An MML/DBP world doesn't exist here for a lot of reasons
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Old 05-2-2020, 08:01 PM   #2727
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Default Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

If we can prove that DBP is fake; can MML still be real ?
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Old 05-2-2020, 08:02 PM   #2728
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Default Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by leetic View Post
First of all, "fake softed roleblocker" doesn't sound good and I can't find the post in question. Secondly, why would you send a no-kill? Simple, to make your claim more believable when Mikey's flip would put it into question and to help push forward a potential mislynch. It's MyLo, it's not like scum has anything to lose.
Yeah, I'm saying that you would have to believe that my roleblocker softs are fake for this to make sense in that world

sending in a no-kill is suicidal because if MML actually targets a wolf partner then I am needlessly endangering my own chances of success. this would be catastrophic for one major reason

You're looking at TT vs. TTTT. the only difference is the 1-shot role cop vs the regular role cop. if I'm lying then we're in TTTT. if MML happened to target the 1-shot role cop and that person got lynched, they would flip 1-shot role cop which mathematically proves we are in TTTT instead of the TT I was trying to dupe you into. That mechanically outs me too. By no-killing I'm potentially sacrificing 2 wolves for a single gambit that isn't even needed.

so no, fakeclaiming roleblocker and then knowingly no-killing is just not a thing that ever happens in this situation
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Old 05-2-2020, 08:02 PM   #2729
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Default Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

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If we can prove that DBP is fake; can MML still be real ?
Most likely, otherwise it throws the setup into question.
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Old 05-2-2020, 08:04 PM   #2730
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Default Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hakulyte View Post
If we can prove that DBP is fake; can MML still be real ?
From your perspective, meaning if Haku=Town is a requirement

Then DBP being scum would necessitate an intentional scum nokill last night*



*pending one thing which remains to be seen
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I followed the "by the book" play, but I was reading the "not to do" page.
Quote:
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" I'd suck a dick in a dark, dark alley."
Quote:
Originally Posted by YoshL View Post
"i gave you 20 ducks, and spent a lot of time making one of them quack, and pointed at the particular one and asked "is that one the worst quacker"" ... "you could still give somewhat of an answer based on the quality of the quacks, and the other random quacks from the ducks surrounding that weren't the center of focus."
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"I love Wolfe's duck avi so much. Shado's Duck Shrine is the best!!
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Old 05-2-2020, 08:04 PM   #2731
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Default Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by DaBackpack View Post
Yeah, I'm saying that you would have to believe that my roleblocker softs are fake for this to make sense in that world

sending in a no-kill is suicidal because if MML actually targets a wolf partner then I am needlessly endangering my own chances of success. this would be catastrophic for one major reason

You're looking at TT vs. TTTT. the only difference is the 1-shot role cop vs the regular role cop. if I'm lying then we're in TTTT. if MML happened to target the 1-shot role cop and that person got lynched, they would flip 1-shot role cop which mathematically proves we are in TTTT instead of the TT I was trying to dupe you into. That mechanically outs me too. By no-killing I'm potentially sacrificing 2 wolves for a single gambit that isn't even needed.

so no, fakeclaiming roleblocker and then knowingly no-killing is just not a thing that ever happens in this situation
You still haven't pointed out your supposed softs
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Old 05-2-2020, 08:04 PM   #2732
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Default Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

DBP i need you to link me that D0 soft please
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Quote:
Originally Posted by roundbox View Post
Achievement unlocked: reading the setup
Quote:
Originally Posted by TWG Mad Dummy (Neee) View Post
But, I mean, shado claimed to seer check his N0 on N4, so obvs there's some NEXT LEVEL SHIT going down..
Quote:
Originally Posted by the sun fan View Post
I have beat my meat to storn's posts no less than four times
.
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Old 05-2-2020, 08:04 PM   #2733
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Default Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

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Originally Posted by MixMasterLar View Post
I dont know about that....
Yes it is, because of how conditional probabilities

the difference between 0.1% and 2.5% is marginal in the grand scheme of rands in this setup
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there are 743 matches for hedgehog suicide on deviantart
that's kind of a sad statistic
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Old 05-2-2020, 08:05 PM   #2734
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Default Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by leetic View Post
You still haven't pointed out your supposed softs
because I was busy responding to your post calm your tits
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Quote:
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there are 743 matches for hedgehog suicide on deviantart
that's kind of a sad statistic
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Old 05-2-2020, 08:10 PM   #2735
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Default Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

4T is 27% vs. 16% for 2T. Not too significant a difference on its own, but compounded by the three roleblockers in the latter scenario. Four Ts with three distinct PRs is a normal setup.
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Old 05-2-2020, 08:10 PM   #2736
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Default Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by DaBackpack View Post
because I was busy responding to your post calm your tits
It didn't take me too long to bring up my softclaim
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Old 05-2-2020, 08:15 PM   #2737
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Default Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by DaBackpack View Post
Yes it is, because of how conditional probabilities

the difference between 0.1% and 2.5% is marginal in the grand scheme of rands in this setup
idk, there's a pretty big difference in total rand likelihood.

Odds of exactly VCBTTTT = (0.2734375*0.3720087*0.3720087*0.3720087)*100 = ~1.41%

Odds of Exactly VCBBBTT = (0.1640625*0.0229635*0.3720087*0.3720087)*100 = ~0.05%

The difference is by a factor of 27. That's not marginal
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hakulyte
I followed the "by the book" play, but I was reading the "not to do" page.
Quote:
Originally Posted by XelNya View Post
" I'd suck a dick in a dark, dark alley."
Quote:
Originally Posted by YoshL View Post
"i gave you 20 ducks, and spent a lot of time making one of them quack, and pointed at the particular one and asked "is that one the worst quacker"" ... "you could still give somewhat of an answer based on the quality of the quacks, and the other random quacks from the ducks surrounding that weren't the center of focus."
Quote:
Originally Posted by mellon_collie
"I love Wolfe's duck avi so much. Shado's Duck Shrine is the best!!
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Old 05-2-2020, 08:18 PM   #2738
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Default Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

Math's my weakest subject

I could use a calculater and google formulas and probably figure it out, but I won't.

DBP's being scum doesn't contradict the known set up and thats all I need to know in regards to rather or not he needs to be considered. Imma be pissed if he's wolf tho because for most of the game he was strongest townread
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Quote:
Originally Posted by roundbox View Post
Achievement unlocked: reading the setup
Quote:
Originally Posted by TWG Mad Dummy (Neee) View Post
But, I mean, shado claimed to seer check his N0 on N4, so obvs there's some NEXT LEVEL SHIT going down..
Quote:
Originally Posted by the sun fan View Post
I have beat my meat to storn's posts no less than four times
.
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Old 05-2-2020, 08:19 PM   #2739
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Default Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

Alright well my head was originally at the fact that dbp would have had to make an obscene risk as scum to claim before knowing there was another roleblocker, but I just realised scum team have a cop so lol
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Old 05-2-2020, 08:19 PM   #2740
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Default Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

Like my gut doesn't believe he's a fake.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by roundbox View Post
Achievement unlocked: reading the setup
Quote:
Originally Posted by TWG Mad Dummy (Neee) View Post
But, I mean, shado claimed to seer check his N0 on N4, so obvs there's some NEXT LEVEL SHIT going down..
Quote:
Originally Posted by the sun fan View Post
I have beat my meat to storn's posts no less than four times
.
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