Old 08-28-2018, 08:15 PM   #2961
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Default Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

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Originally Posted by Tps222 View Post
I feel bad that I wasn't around enough initially to remember what you had said regarding this, care to remind me?
Well it was more in previous phases re: no lynch

But I think it's an objectively bad decision for town at this stage too
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Old 08-28-2018, 08:15 PM   #2962
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Default Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

Anyone else here to weigh in ?
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Old 08-28-2018, 08:16 PM   #2963
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Default Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

I'm probably voting fg
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Old 08-28-2018, 08:17 PM   #2964
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Default Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

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Well it was more in previous phases re: no lynch

But I think it's an objectively bad decision for town at this stage too
It comes down to if we like our odds voting vs prisoners dilemma, but I'm interested in hearing a brief summary of your position if you don't mind.
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Old 08-28-2018, 08:17 PM   #2965
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Default Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

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Anyone else here to weigh in ?
In my perspective the only reason youd want to no lynch is to buy time and to justify f4 next phase if you're a wolf
But that's just me
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Old 08-28-2018, 08:18 PM   #2966
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Default Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

I'm at an arcade right now so gimme a bit if you really want me to argue it properly
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Old 08-28-2018, 08:48 PM   #2967
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Default Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

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If we no-lynch today,

we will create a situation where the wolf and SK won't be able to know who each other are for sure,

and this will greatly increase our odds of them hitting one another.
this is a contradiction

no-lynching preserves the ambiguity between us and increases the chance that at least one of two NKs lands on me, which would not at all be them hitting each other
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Old 08-28-2018, 08:50 PM   #2968
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Default Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

going to take a late-night shower and try this cooling down thing that was in a news article, be back after that. supposed to be good for your head and stuff
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Old 08-28-2018, 09:10 PM   #2969
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Default Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

am back, apparently i missed nothing but i'm around
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Old 08-28-2018, 09:20 PM   #2970
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Default Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

too sleepy to make it
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Old 08-28-2018, 09:26 PM   #2971
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Default Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

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too sleepy to make it
ok

have you been following along? where you at on what to do today?
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Old 08-28-2018, 09:35 PM   #2972
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Default Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

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this is a contradiction

no-lynching preserves the ambiguity between us and increases the chance that at least one of two NKs lands on me, which would not at all be them hitting each other
No. If we lynch someone other than myself and cel then it means the 2 remaining are the sk and wolf, who then know who each other are. If we no lynch then we make then have to guess which of the two the other is.
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Old 08-28-2018, 09:36 PM   #2973
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Default Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

This is assuming a mislynch worst case scenario vs us taking a stab today at a 2/3 odds
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Old 08-28-2018, 09:38 PM   #2974
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Default Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

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No. If we lynch someone other than myself and cel then it means the 2 remaining are the sk and wolf, who then know who each other are. If we no lynch then we make then have to guess which of the two the other is.
right, they know who each other are

so they can just attack each other

killing anyone else is playing to at most a draw, i'm pretty sure
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Old 08-28-2018, 09:39 PM   #2975
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Default Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

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right, they know who each other are

so they can just attack each other

killing anyone else is playing to at most a draw, i'm pretty sure
If they attacked each other in that scenario it's mutually assured destruction and we win, why would they do that on purpose
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Old 08-28-2018, 09:42 PM   #2976
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Default Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

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If they attacked each other in that scenario it's mutually assured destruction and we win, why would they do that on purpose
this is exactly the dilemma they need to solve. a mislynch today forces it without suggesting one answer over the other

in addition, it clears or condemns you, and i'd like to do that

you're basically making the argument you're priced into as a wolf here, which i appreciate, but it's not good for town
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Old 08-28-2018, 09:48 PM   #2977
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Default Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

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this is exactly the dilemma they need to solve. a mislynch today forces it without suggesting one answer over the other

in addition, it clears or condemns you, and i'd like to do that

you're basically making the argument you're priced into as a wolf here, which i appreciate, but it's not good for town
No, if we mislynch we need to bank of them killing at least one of the other or we guarantee a draw/loss. Obviously a correct lynch is best, but if we no lynch we create a situation where they have to each coinflip the other to have any shot if winning. Two coinflip gambles from them to hit the other is better than one 2/3 guess from us unless we all agree on a Target.
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Old 08-28-2018, 09:58 PM   #2978
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Default Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

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No, if we mislynch we need to bank of them killing at least one of the other or we guarantee a draw/loss. Obviously a correct lynch is best, but if we no lynch we create a situation where they have to each coinflip the other to have any shot if winning. Two coinflip gambles from them to hit the other is better than one 2/3 guess from us unless we all agree on a Target.
ok well i currently forget how conditional probabilities work, so i'm not in a position to show you math

but fmpov the 2/3 is 100% because i'll always be voting to lynch not-me

following your scenario actually just kinda makes things longer for no reason

(i'm into the last 50 xiz posts btw)
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Old 08-28-2018, 10:01 PM   #2979
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Default Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

So if we no lynch, that puts this phase at 5, which can actually lead to an insta draw here if sk and wolf kill a town each, or if tps hides even though he shouldn't.
It could put us at 4, with a town dying, which creates ambiguity of if there is even a SK. In that situation we would have to no lynch as well though, and effectively leave it up to RNG that we win.
No lynch is useless; but arguably as well, it's the only way for a wolf tps to win. I cant see any other angle for wanting a no lunch here
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Old 08-28-2018, 10:01 PM   #2980
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Default Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

I think no lynching is a bad idea objectively and I would rather I get lynched than us no lynching
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