Old 08-20-2018, 07:42 PM   #1541
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Default Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

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Originally Posted by Celirra View Post
Queen is great actually so I disagree
my dude
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Old 08-20-2018, 07:43 PM   #1542
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Default Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

the existence of day woflchat makes things a little difficult but I think wolves wouldn't openly... communicate like that in the thread

there might be that kind of touch-and-go in a game without daychat but there's no reason to leave unnecessary evidence like that behind in this game thread
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Old 08-20-2018, 07:44 PM   #1543
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Default Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

Okay, I'm basically going to just be posting direct reactions to the whole day basically.

My basic leans are:

Xiz, Cel, DBP, Sun, inD - town

WC, Freezin - null

FG, Blind, TPS - Wolfy

But these reads feel kind of shitty. They're more or less in likelihood of individual anti-town (e.g. someone wolfy is more likely to be a wolf than null, and null than town), but it's still largely just behavioral, and I wouldn't be surprised to find a wolf in my town group. But vacillating aside, that's where I'm at. I'll be making a lot of posts all in a row.

Regarding yesterday, I haven't really seen a lot of discussion regarding possible distributions. Only one NK makes it less likely that there's a SK, but obviously not impossible--a blocked kill could be a thing. At this stage, there's still too little info to piece together what the actual enemy state is, but this is something that should be considered as more information becomes available.
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Old 08-20-2018, 07:44 PM   #1544
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Default Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

I know this reasoning led to the Gradiant mislynch but I still believe it
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Old 08-20-2018, 07:45 PM   #1545
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Default Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

Thoughts on the lynch and the night kill.

The end of the day was, as it often is, a mess. Ironically, the three players that formed the final wagons (multiple votes) were probably my three most town-cleared at the time. That's partially due to my own biases—I tend to town read “towny”/game-active players on D1—but it's weird to me that people immediately moved toward those players. Admittedly, activity invites examination, and therefore suspicion, but that was a weird direction to go.

I was planning a big case against Syhto. Guess not. While Syhto is obviously cleared now, I still find it weird how little engagement there was on the topic—even if people were town-reading, I feel like there should have been more to it.
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Old 08-20-2018, 07:45 PM   #1546
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Default Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

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Originally Posted by the sun fan View Post
people keep talking about how they find blind to be pretty similar to previous games and tbh he feels pretty similar to me most of the time

his reasons here are like... a little loose and I suppose that's slightly more indicative of blind!town than anything else (see his read on precarious taking a century to post something being wolfy) but that's mostly making something up for him I don't really know on him

I'm town so don't vote me thanks
I'm starting to think that the best way to get a read on blind is to piss him off
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Old 08-20-2018, 07:45 PM   #1547
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Default Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

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Originally Posted by blindreper1179 View Post
Sytho dying seems like pr hunting.
This is how I see it honestly. Having played a wolf in the previous game, our strategy had very much been “kill a potential killing role, stay away from the innocent child who is likely to be guarded.” While not necessarily relevant here, people seem strangely reluctant to consider that scum might NK strategically rather than simply target the most immediately appealing target, which is necessarily fraught with complications.

***

So, the day largely starts with a lot of initial heat toward Sun Fan. See Freezin in 1242, Celirra in 1246. In the same period, Funnygurl defended Sun several times. None of these reactions are inherently problematic—Sun was at risk of lynch, so suspicion, defense, and general discussion are expected.

***

Xiz is fairly active early on, and his play is definitely more game-sided. Not that there's no off topic or joke material, but it's much more of an engaged Xiz. Given my experiences with him last game, I know he's capable of faking that, but it still feels like a tonal departure, so I lean slightly town on his early day. Of course, the other stuff came shortly thereafter, but I liked the early “serious” blitz. It felt real.
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Old 08-20-2018, 07:46 PM   #1548
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Default Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

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Originally Posted by Xiz View Post
For context:

sunfan votes sytho
wc tells sunfan dont do that
sunfan gets off sytho
sunfan states hes getting off because wc convined him
sunfan later sates he got off not because wc convinced him
I call sunfan out on it
sunfan admits it

Sunfan didn't lie, but... it wasn't the truth and im stuck
This is an interesting point. That sort of causal mismatch is...problematic.

My guess is that after Sun weakened on Syhto, I listed them as my leading wolf candidate in my short roster run. That made Sun say that they couldn't see w/w, and then shortly thereafter voted me. That suggests to me that the switch away from Syhto was probably legitimate—either Sun was still weakly wolf-reading both of us, or was wolf-reading me, and my accusation cemented their interpretation of Syhto. Sun voted me shortly thereafter. The initial post actually set off alarm bells because Sun used a weird impromptu nickname for me, and we had interacted a fair bit during the prior game (Sun was hosting, so I asked a fair number of questions on Discord). But the vote on me shored up their overall profile by at least generating a post-to-post level of consistency. That clashes with the lack of internal consistency above though.
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Old 08-20-2018, 07:47 PM   #1549
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Default Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

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Isnt lynch all liars just a way of twisting the prevalence of illogic to convince people that bad thought patterns equivalate to wolfiness
While I definitely stood to benefit last game with the competing fake claims, I really do believe that fake claims should be punished. Any sort of gambit doesn't outweigh the implicit lack of trust, nor the precedent it sets—particularly since I've seen towns get burned elsewhere ignoring fake claims. But it's worth distinguishing between outright, specific lies and internal inconsistencies. Everyone is likely guilty of the latter from time to time—I'll probably manage a few in this text wall. But while they shouldn't necessarily be a clarion call for an immediate lynch, internal inconsistency is definitely more scum-sided than town, because wolves are, by definition, putting on an act, and thus aren't actually working toward the goal of lynching all wolves. Thus, they're more likely to get their wires crossed when making cases—they're not actually trying to solve anything, they're just putting up what looks good, and would benefit the wolf victory condition long term.

The problem with an inconsistency like this is that it's certainly something a wolf might do; make a convenient case, then retract it when it stops being convenient. But because a wolf-case is always manufactured, how they get in and out of it can be lost along the way. But at the same time, inconsistency isn't solely a wolf failing, particularly in a game where gut reads and general intuition plays a large role. It can be difficult to fully explain how you feel sometimes (although I think it's good practice to at least try). So while I would hold that lynch all liars isn't necessarily bad advice, it should apply to clear, definitive lies, and less so to something like this. I kind of fall in the middle on this; I think it should be a point against Sun, but not a huge one.
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Old 08-20-2018, 07:47 PM   #1550
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Default Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

Precarious how the fuck are you making these long posts so fast?
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there are 743 matches for hedgehog suicide on deviantart
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Old 08-20-2018, 07:48 PM   #1551
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Default Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

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Originally Posted by Celirra View Post
Oh uh as an aside... I'm really sorry for any stupid stuff caused by my outburst last phase
Uh
I'll explain in postgame but irl hit 100x harder than it thought it would
People get upset playing this game, and I'd hope that (absent truly cruel personal attacks) we can all look past someone getting upset, particularly if there's an irl component. As far as I'm concerned, you have nothing to apologize for.
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Old 08-20-2018, 07:48 PM   #1552
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Default Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

It's honestly alarming that you're producing so much content so rapidly

it feels premeditated
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Old 08-20-2018, 07:49 PM   #1553
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Default Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

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Originally Posted by DaBackpack View Post
Precarious how the fuck are you making these long posts so fast?
I've been working on them for hours. They're all already written. I would have posted them in real time, but last time I did that in the anonymous Danganronpa game, I ended up posting about something that had already been proved impossible later in the thread. So I waited this time, resulting in this dumb backlog.

There are more coming, obviously.
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Old 08-20-2018, 07:50 PM   #1554
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Default Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

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Originally Posted by DaBackpack View Post
looking at Gradiant's last will and testament

funny > indheart > sunfan
I agree with this order.

***

Quote:
Originally Posted by DaBackpack View Post
do you think there's any validity to the rest of the reads gradiant had?

of that list who is most suspicious to you?
Having said that, I could be wrong about the order, to the extent it's even relevant. Gradiant's flip guarantees the reads were made in good faith, but they were also made under duress (time and looming votes). I don't really see InD or Sun as particularly wolfy, and even Funny is more a PoE thing relative to the overall player pool. But whether or not they're right, they're at least worth considering as honest assessments.

On the other hand, there's a fair amount of OMGUS involved, as two of the three Gradiant voters were also on his list.
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Old 08-20-2018, 07:51 PM   #1555
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Default Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

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Originally Posted by Funnygurl555 View Post
i mean it's probably as valid as any townie dishing out reads, yeah?



so, indheart or sunfan?

indheart's null for me. sunfan was kinda town but i don't trust that read much anymore.

indheart, but also i wouldn't lynch either of them rn
So this is townier than Funny on D1, although part of my problem with her was just the lack of gameplay engagement on the first day. She seems more focused today, which overall is null I guess, town-sided if anything.

***

Quote:
Originally Posted by Funnygurl555 View Post
leaning towards disagree because of his incorrect read of me
But then this happens. It's extremely unlikely that anyone could possibly guess everyone from the dataless mess of D1—we can't even be sure of how many wolves there are for example. So I'd take Gradiant's list with a grain of salt—but only as a general assessment, rather than because you're there. Dismissing the validity of the other two suspicions, even if you don't agree with them, moreso because of his read on you—which imo wasn't entirely unwarranted—feels overly defensive.

***

Quote:
Originally Posted by Funnygurl555 View Post
if you mislynch me again dbp i swear

if anything go for the others first
And of course this is not an actual defense. Past ain't prologue. Particularly given your own skepticism toward the other suspects. Shouldn't you be telling DBP to look elsewhere altogether, rather than “lynch them first”?
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Old 08-20-2018, 07:53 PM   #1556
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Default Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

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Originally Posted by the sun fan View Post
I think dbp is saying too many... weird things

if he think I justified something in hindsight but am town, that doesn't make too much sense considering he voted Gradiant for something that isn't exactly the same but is in a similar light

he has just been pretty weird and I think that's a lot more wolfy for him than not
Okay, I have to ask, because this has been driving me crazy. Like, I know I don't haven't played a ton of games here, so my meta-knowledge of any of you is sort of limited, but DBP's play this game has been very different from what I've seen in the past. And not in the “this is their town game, this is their wolf game” way; DBP's style and overall approach feels dramatically different. Have I just played with DBP at the wrong times in the past, or is this a completely new game style for them?
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Old 08-20-2018, 07:54 PM   #1557
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Default Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

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Originally Posted by blindreper1179 View Post
Even though gradiant was vanilla, i feel we should lynch in his pool, and by that i mean the people who voted for him and the people he said we should look into.
That would be FG, DBP, Sun Fan, and inD. There's a lot of overlap between the two pools—FG and Sun Fan are in both. DBP voted Gradiant, inD was on the last testament. I'm sort of leaning toward FG so far, but even there I don't feel great about it. I wouldn't say we should necessarily limit to this pool—it's not like there's guaranteed to be a bad guy in it. But all of those people warrant attention if for no other reason than their proximity to Gradiant.

***

Quote:
Originally Posted by Celirra View Post
And that's why you voted me right
Quote:
Originally Posted by blindreper1179 View Post
No. That was mostly a i don't like your vibe. But I'll be changing, don't worry.
Not the best look here.
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Old 08-20-2018, 07:56 PM   #1558
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Default Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

Last one for now.

Quote:
Originally Posted by FreezinIce View Post
Everything coming out of xiz is registering as white noise

? ? ? ?
Xiz feels townier than last game. Obviously there's a bias there on my part, I feel like he's pushing in a way he didn't before. I'm not getting a lot of white noise here. Even the off topic stuff has toned down.

***

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tps222 View Post
i dont know how the vote tag works I guess

freezn
Even by my standards you're quiet, then you immediately vote based off a single post that you don't “like,” absent any analysis? And on a wagon gaining momentum? Man, I'm not feeling the Prec vibe anymore.
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Old 08-20-2018, 07:59 PM   #1559
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Default Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

Quote:
Originally Posted by Precarious View Post
I've been working on them for hours. They're all already written. I would have posted them in real time, but last time I did that in the anonymous Danganronpa game, I ended up posting about something that had already been proved impossible later in the thread. So I waited this time, resulting in this dumb backlog.

There are more coming, obviously.
I believe this but you're going to have to post in real-time
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there are 743 matches for hedgehog suicide on deviantart
that's kind of a sad statistic
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Old 08-20-2018, 08:01 PM   #1560
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Default Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

the two wolf tells from your bullet-time game is that you were robotic and that your posts were disjoint from the rest of the action in the game and you didn't really engage with others that much

I have you as town atm bc you seem less roboto but as I said you're going to be held to a higher standard w/r/t interacting in real-time
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