TWG XXX - Objection!

[Tps222]

Fish, you are twisting evidence to fit my case. Just because you can see me doing it doesn't mean I did, and certainly does not warrant me on top of your suspicion list.

[FishFishRevolution]

There are few other people I can think of that fit this bill so nicely, if any. Granted, you may not have total say on who is killed each night, but the evidence is convincing to me.

I'll admit, my wolf suspicion list isn't as strong as I'd like it to be this game, which is no doubt a cause of the newly added extra enemy team.

[Kefit]

I had a feeling this was coming.

Have fun peoples.

[Wilkin]

Time for more numbered opinions:

1) Kefit said he saw this coming. Did anyone talk to him before the night ended, and if so, what exactly did he say in terms of suspicions, etc.? If he saw this coming, then anything he may have said can prove very useful.

2) Kefit's death. Kilga stated in a post (#120) about how he would think the wolves would go for a more powerful player Night 2 rather than witness-hunt. Perhaps he's trying to throw us off by implementing his strategy after he publicizes it? Also, Kilga could be using the fact that he's been a human for the past two Day 7's to hide behind. No accusations yet, just ideas.

3) Blah. Something about him is really bothering me, but I'm not sure what it means yet. For 1) he's never been toward the beginning of the first posts of the day, and 2) his only real posts have been dedicated to completely agreeing with either Kefit or Fish, then proceeded by a vote. This leads me to believe that he may be the Prosecutor, and hiding behind his idea or the witnesses to come out. This is his first post that contains any originality to it, and I find that to be a signal of something non-green going on.

I'll admit that I don't know Blah's patterns as a wolf or otherwise that well, so if there's a serious error in my statements, please correct me. Other than that, he's the highest on my suspicion list at the moment.

[blahblah18]

talisman... the wolves will need to kill one of the witnesses that comes out, this way, if they're lying, then it shuts down the prosecutor, but if they're telling the truth, its worth it for us to know... its definately win win

[Kilgamayan]

Originally Posted by Wilkin

1) Kefit said he saw this coming. Did anyone talk to him before the night ended, and if so, what exactly did he say in terms of suspicions, etc.? If he saw this coming, then anything he may have said can prove very useful.

Kefit said on IRC that he was surprised he didn't die on Night 2. From what I could tell he viewed his wolfing as an inevitability, and in looking at his posts it's hard to disagree.

[Wilkin]

Ah. Just making sure he didn't say anything critically important.

[GuidoHunter]

Originally Posted by blahblah18

ok certain things need to happen. Yes the witnesses need to come out and announce that they were witnesses if the prosecutor dies. This is because they are now humans and the human team absolutely needs to know when the prosecutor dies, it is more important for the humans to know it then the wolves, because the wolves always gain frmo killing someone, it is the humans that are torn between what they need to do. Iggy's still alive and therefore there should be a good number of people that have been come up human. Now those people may be witnesses or the master wolf, but that's not as important as the leftover list guaranteeing the prosecutor and 2 other wolves (assuming none of those 3 are dead) So let the day begin and I anxiously await if anyone has anything to say

blah, why post this? Didn't we beat this idea to death earlier in the game?

For that matter, what's the deal with all of your posts? You've made a grand total of six or so, and most of them have been all but helpful. First you hump Kefit's leg on Day 1 and now you're just repeating already clarified theories in the event that one of our TWO lynches was the prosecutor (with that chance further reduced by the fact that the prosecutor likely sold Afro out yesterday).

I question your uncharacteristic style this game.

--Guido

http://andy.mikee385.com

[nforcer06164]

Ok guys, school starts for me tomorrow, so updates may be a bit slow. What's more, my flash drive decided to malfunction, so many of my TWG 30 files were lost. Luckily, I backed up recently and can use what I have as templates. Not having a flash drive will definitely slow me down if I plan to make up stories and updates ahead of time, though. I apologize in advance for the inconvenience.

Now, continue. I don't want to interrupt this any further =P

[FishFishRevolution]

I wish people would post. Actually, I really woud like to hear from LD and Hans. I'm sure at least one of them is either a wolf or a witness/prosecutor Since votes aren't due until tomorrow, I'll hold out for voting one of them until then; hopefully they will both post and put my suspicions to somewhat of a rest.

[iggymatrixcounter]

You won't be killed for posting, you WILL however be killed for not posting.

1) Where does everyone think we are with witness/wolf/human ratios?

2) What are people's wolf suspects?

3) What are people's human suspects?

4) Any strategies you would like to mention?

5) Who do you think the fake account names were?

6) Comments on how people are relating to each other?

7) AIM conversations you've had?

There's a lot to talk about and there are some things to discuss if you need something to talk about. Don't send your answers to me, post them let people discuss them.

[talisman]

8) who here uses trillian besides nick?

just so I can nail down something that's been bothering me.

[Wilkin]

I'll respond to the subjects which I have to most information about:

1) With at least 2 green wolfings (including witnesses, one wolfing excluded in the case of the guardian), and the lynching of three more people , I figure at least one of the witnesses has been hit. By the end of Day 1, there was a about an 11% chance (because of the wolves' successful kill, the lynch, and assuming a witness was even successfully called) that a the called witness was killed. By now, the combinations of situations are too numerous and complicated to be of any help, but it can be assumed that the chances of a witness death steadily increase, especially if two are called, though the actual numbers aren't gradual enough to be of any comfort:

Assuming two witnesses are alive today, then we have a 20% chance of lynching one (or a 22% chance of one being wolfed, 30%/33% if you include the Prosecutor). If they manage to survive until Day 4, then there's still a 38% chance of taking out any member of the Prosecution by lynch-time, ensuring that they're probably doomed. The only problem is being able to hit these numbers. The worst case scenario is that we'll be stuck with that 38% by tomorrow, in which a little better than a one in three shot doesn't sound too bad.

Where I actually think we are, though, is somewhere in the middle. One of the numbers has probably hit, but we won't have any way of knowing unless the game ends Night 4.

2) Hans' total of one, maybe two posts in the last decade is really screaming out something. Either his mind is slipping and he's forgetting to do ANYTHING, or else he's playing an inactive wolf (or Prosecution, in this case) role, hoping to bank on his repuation for inactivity to get him through. Part of me is also thinking he might be doing the same thing as the guardian, just lying low in general. The biggest problem is that I've never played a game with him as a blue or red, and reading some past ones hasn't been helping.

Blah's got something to hide. Refer to my previous post.

5) If Hans is playing the low-laying Prosecutor role, this whole PM business would be the perfect way to hide it. Logically, he'd be one of the last people on my list to do such an outspoken thing, which is why he should probably be one of the first.

As things progress through tomorrow, I'll try and get some more of the subjects covered. Until then, though, I think Hans and Blah should be at the top of the scrutiny list.

[nforcer06164]

15 game-related posts since the story was posted? You guys make me sick. You do remember voting is tonight, right?

[HansSky]

Hi. Okay, so I just spent the last hour and a half reading through the thread, and came away with a few things.

Guido made a few posts(Day 1 I believe) in the wee hours of the morning. Granted, it wasn't THAT late, but it was around 2:30 for him. Simply put, anyone who's willing to spend that kind of time thinking strategy on his own is almost certainly human.

Blah has been acting identical to last game, although I'm not really sure what this means. His posts have been meaningless, and has been bandwagoning onto other people's ideas. This would most likely point to wolf, but I don't find it difficult to picture him doing this as just a lazy human as well.

Meh. Bell. More later.

[FishFishRevolution]

I'm going to put a vote down on LD because I highly doubt he's human, and because Hans just posted. Subject to change as I talk to more people today.

[Wilkin]

Well, I have a predicament.

I probably won't be around for the rest of the day, due to classes and such. I only have about 20 minutes before that all starts, so I'll make my vote now:

Blah. Nothing has diverted my beliefs from what I've already posted about him. While Hans said he could attribute it to him being a lazy human, the danger of us letting him go could very well lead to the same fate as last game. If I had to put him on anything, it'd be the Prosecutor.

While I still have my minor suspicions on Kilga and Hans, Blah has me the most worried at the moment. If I do manage to get back before lynching, I'll read up on the thread and perhaps reconsider.

[FishFishRevolution]

I said blah way back on Day 1, and then I eased off of him because of the following conversation. Although I had much less reason to be suspicious of blah then than I do now, go figure.

1:42:25 PM mastr414: hey
1:42:28 PM mastr414: so here's the deal, ok?
1:42:42 PM insanelikeafish: yeah
1:42:51 PM mastr414: ok so i give you all the money to fly to oregon to see your wife
1:43:08 PM mastr414: and then like in the old days, as your lord, which i must be if i'm financially backing it all, I get to sleep with her first
1:43:16 PM mastr414: deal?
1:43:30 PM insanelikeafish: that sounds more than reasonable
1:43:35 PM mastr414: excellent!
1:43:51 PM insanelikeafish: hahahaha
1:44:07 PM mastr414: but seriously now, i'm no wolf
1:44:12 PM mastr414: and i'm no prosecturo nor witness
1:44:41 PM insanelikeafish: that's quite the claim
1:44:53 PM insanelikeafish: why do you care if i think you're not human?
1:45:22 PM mastr414: because I think you're human
1:45:25 PM mastr414: and thus care
1:45:32 PM mastr414: its always my MO
1:45:38 PM mastr414: i don't give a **** when retards or wolves accuse me
1:45:43 PM mastr414: because that's their purpose
1:46:07 PM insanelikeafish: well you're right haha, which means i shouldn't let you sway my opinion with your wolfy trixy ways = D
1:46:08 PM insanelikeafish: haha
1:46:13 PM insanelikeafish: but yeah
1:46:14 PM mastr414: yups, you caight me
1:46:17 PM insanelikeafish: all i'm saying is
1:46:23 PM insanelikeafish: you were really smooth last game
1:46:25 PM insanelikeafish: really smooth
1:46:28 PM mastr414: yup
1:46:32 PM mastr414: and i haven't been this game
1:46:32 PM insanelikeafish: and i'm seeing traces of it
1:46:35 PM insanelikeafish: right
1:46:36 PM mastr414: not at all!
1:46:41 PM mastr414: i'm being chunky!
1:46:45 PM insanelikeafish: not to the extent you were, but look at some of your first posts
1:46:51 PM insanelikeafish: compare to day 1 posts last game
1:47:00 PM insanelikeafish: borrowing kefit's logic?
1:47:00 PM mastr414: i'm sorry
1:47:02 PM mastr414: you have to understand
1:47:06 PM mastr414: there are sooo many people in this game
1:47:07 PM insanelikeafish: vs borrowing tass's logic?
1:47:09 PM mastr414: that i haven't played with in months
1:47:13 PM mastr414: that i've really missed
1:47:15 PM mastr414: specifically kefit
1:47:20 PM mastr414: he's always been one of my favorite players
1:47:23 PM insanelikeafish: hahaha
1:47:25 PM mastr414: and then he was gone for like over 6 months
1:47:33 PM mastr414: and admit it, everything he said day 1
1:47:35 PM mastr414: was so spot on
1:47:45 PM mastr414: and infinitely better then anyone else ahs ever postulated during day 1 in a long time
1:48:04 PM insanelikeafish: yes, i agree,it really helped
1:48:18 PM mastr414: that's different then me trying to coddle Tass
1:48:24 PM mastr414: knowing he'll let his ego cloud his judgement
1:48:26 PM insanelikeafish: it basically simplified teh human cause
1:48:32 PM insanelikeafish: i see
1:48:50 PM insanelikeafish: you'll notice in my post
1:49:01 PM insanelikeafish: that i really don't have as many wolf suspicions as i should
1:49:12 PM insanelikeafish: i usually like to have at least 4
1:49:33 PM insanelikeafish: i only really have 3 real suspicions for wolves, most of my suspicions are for the prosecuting team
1:49:37 PM mastr414: yup
1:49:41 PM insanelikeafish: which sucks, because I think our focus should be on the wolves
1:50:00 PM mastr414: its why i juts voted tps
1:50:06 PM mastr414: its like so obviosu that he should die
1:50:12 PM insanelikeafish: hahaha
1:50:13 PM insanelikeafish: oh good
1:50:23 PM insanelikeafish: well let me cut a deal with you
1:50:27 PM insanelikeafish: you seem like a reasonable man
1:50:31 PM mastr414: I am
1:50:54 PM insanelikeafish: out of all my suspicions, left as they are now, i will act on my suspicions of you, last
1:51:00 PM mastr414: fair
1:51:03 PM insanelikeafish: because what you've said just now
1:51:05 PM insanelikeafish: makes a lot of sense
1:51:10 PM mastr414: yup
1:51:36 PM insanelikeafish: although you know i'll confirm it with kefit ; )
1:51:42 PM mastr414: yup
1:51:44 PM mastr414: poor kefit
1:51:49 PM mastr414: i think he went through a span
1:52:01 PM mastr414: of 4 or 5 consecutive night 1 or 2 wolfings
1:53:35 PM insanelikeafish: reminds me of hans
1:53:38 PM mastr414: yup
1:53:57 PM insanelikeafish: i haven't read your post where you voted tps
1:54:02 PM insanelikeafish: but both kills fit
1:54:09 PM mastr414: yup
1:54:10 PM insanelikeafish: couple with the pm
1:54:14 PM insanelikeafish: coupled*
1:54:22 PM mastr414: i mean what wolf would offer to buy your plane ticket
1:54:26 PM mastr414: that should be the strongest evidence

Edit for italics.

[blahblah18]

tps how is he still alive? there's been so much bullcrap pm's etc, clearly he's some kind of awful scary role

[talisman]

so yeah-

me-human
iggy-seer
blah-pretty sketchy for reasons people have said, would have killed tass, probably kefit too? dunno.
tps-caught him flat-out lying to me, granted it was a small lie. lots of pms, he's got to be involved with one of the names.
hans-no posting, still hasn't said why he voted chardish, does that make him a wolf? I dunno, if I were a wolf I wouldn't put a bs vote on a guy already about to die at the end of the day and then not back it up.
ld-either busy with 3rd style or being his normal self.
kilga-could go either way
guido-could go either way
nick-could go either way
fish-could go either way

Also given that we have 3 mystery pm accounts and there are only two groups that would use them (or at least the ones that are in use) that means two of the accounts belong to one of the groups. My guess is that fromthewolves and fromtheprosecutor are the same person/group and prosecutor is different.

Votewise I'd almost rather follow iggy's lead today because he knows so much more about people's roles and whatnot. I'll put in a pledge vote for tps which will become a real vote if I really disagree with iggy's reasoning or something else comes up.