TWG XXVIII: Card Sharks (or Wolves, rather)

[Tasselfoot]

KIR is Keeping It Real...

so a black belt in keeping it real would be..... suave?

I'm just worried that if ap was the night 1 seer, then he's giving away information about the real seer (maybe). Or if he is the seer... he's saying the guardian isn't really the guardian? Something like that...

OR... TPS made this up.

[Tasselfoot]

the only real mention of "anti-dangerous" on google is a reference to some irony... a senator or something pushing through legislation against dangerous dogs got attacked by his dog.


Frankly, I think this is going to divert our attentions away from finding wolves.

[Tps222]

I agree, it's why I was hesitant to post this. I think anti-dangerous may be cautious, which makes more sense, for what it's worth.

[Tasselfoot]

I gotta say... I still think you're full of **** TPS.

[Tps222]

I'm not.

[iggymatrixcounter]

Originally Posted by aperson

The wolves aren't going to have a chance this game.

This tends to let me know that aperson was the night one seer. Hey you guys said he was good, maybe someone who knew that would seer him and say "Hey come out as seer, because I'm the real seer and don't know how to lead an alliance. Ap goes with it but when the guardian contacts him, he waits.... posts that deal about trying to get the guardian to come (even though the real guard is known) because he is trying to draw a wolf. Then when no new guardian comes, he knows the real seer is safe and says to the guard, "He is real seer, I'm just a pawn... guard him even though the wolves wouldn't try to wolf a public figure head."

Well the wolves did but maybe ap wasn't expecting it but planned for it anyways.

I can see this because now there's an alliance of 2 (even though one was killed.) Someone (I think talisman) said that it would be better for the alliance to work secretly anyways, and maybe the real seer read that and said, "Hey we can do that!"

Course now that's what I see as most logical. (Ap wouldn't say that the wolves didn't stand a chance and have room for error would he?)

But there are a couple of holes that maybe can be worked out.
1) If they did do this, did they have a plan for when the figurehead got killed?
2) If they planned for this (because of last game) why would they have a fake come out and the real seer be guarded undercover? Surely having the real seer would give them more protection and they would have 1 more alliance member.

But again I speculate based on the guess that ap knew what he was doing and this was planned for, he did say (multiple times) that he could run an alliance, so was this something he planned or no?

EDIT: Also, I didn't get a PM from ap.

[iggymatrixcounter]

As far as anything on the PM. the phrase:
"Iggy arm clocks Blah get surrounded by wood" turns into
"Wood surrounds Iggy arm clocks Blah" in Word so if that helps at all.

[Omeganitros]

I didn't get a PM, but I do know that having a black belt in Keeping It Real used to be an avatar FishFishRevolution used to have.

[JurseyRider734]

Originally Posted by Omeganitros

I didn't get a PM, but I do know that having a black belt in Keeping It Real used to be an avatar FishFishRevolution used to have.

Yeah I was going to say that.


blah, iggy, Fish?

[nforcer06164]

TPS, I don't see how the PM could be a "clever plan" to get you lynched. But why would he send it to you and nobody else, seeing as how you pull stuff that normally gets you lynched. The simple fact is, we can't always believe everything you give us. In fact, I wouldn't be too surprised if made this up yourself. But if it is indeed genuine, why you and nobody else? Was there a reason only you were supposed to know it?

iggy, what do you mean by "room for error" in reference to ap's "the wolves don't have a chance"? Are you saying he was wrong that the wolves don't have a chance? Although his statement was pretty bold, I don't understand why you question it. In response to your other question, a fake would come out to keep pressure off the real seer. This leaves less of a chance for the seer to slip up, especially if they're new.

[iggymatrixcounter]

Nforcer, the room for error meant that do we think that Ap would have said that the wolves have no chance because he considered everything and planned for everything? Or did he just say it overconfidently because at that point he was contacted by the guardian?

[Omeganitros]

1) Assuming aperson really sent this, what does aperson gain by PMing this to TPS?

2) Assuming TPS is making this up and is a human, what does he gain by posting this?

3) Assuming TPS is making this up and is a wolf, what does he gain by posting this?

3) Assuming this scenario was planned up by both TPS and aperson (and both are human), what do they gain by doing this?

4) What can the wolves gain from this PM?

5) What can the humans gain from this PM?

6) What can the blues gain from this PM?

[talisman]

Originally Posted by nforcer

This still doesn't explain why the wolves DID go for ap. I don't see the logic here, unless they came up with the same theory I have.

A) of course they came up with the same theory. Either that or I told it to fish and that's how they came up with it. I know I came up with it right away... I never really bought that ap was the seer at any time.

B) they attack ap because it doesn't matter if it goes through. As tass said in my convo with him, they've already lost a day by missing the first kill... missing another doesn't do anything (missing two more would).

C) everyone is repeating everyone else... let's stop that.

D) I doubt ap was trying to get a fake guardian to come to him, he was probably just getting the wolves to think that the real guardian was someone inactive up to the point when he started posting publically about it, or something like that, to try to divert blue-hunting kills.

E) when ap said the wolves had no chance, that doesn't really mean anything... it's just ap thinking that he had some way of getting them all.

F) the pm. of course it gets sent to tps. ugh. well on the one hand, iggy and blah are two of my top considerations. And if that KIR comment is a reference to fish, well I honestly wouldn't be surprised if fish were a wolf as well. Last time he was a wolf he had me completely fooled. on the other hand, tps might have just bs'd this.

[FishFishRevolution]

In my defense:

I'm a crazy wolf, but not a stupid one; I might've purposely passed up a kill to frame afro/blah/others but I would NOT have missed it.

talis, do you REALLY think that I would have gone "HEY THAT'S A GOOD IDEA I'LL DO THAT!" WAY too tracable (I don't care what you say about not being able to prove it, Tass, you can't prove anything in this game), not my style either, as I've already said. I would have gone fore Tass, talis, or me.

Also, since PMs seem to be down again, and Omega's signature is also disabled (tried to edit it to get his attention), I would like to request to Omega to have him IM me straight away.

[Tps222]

Clever way to get me lynched meant that me posting it, without the use of whatever the PM means, would get me lynched. I'm working on decrypting this, so I'll post again later.

[mead1]

I think the pm is real at this point. I remember the last time TPS tried to fake a pm. That didn't turn out too well for him. He might have gotten better, but I really can't see what he would gain from faking this as a wolf.

[iggymatrixcounter]

I've come to think that while the PM may refer to certain players, it doesn't really help anyone. I mean omega posted those six senarios and really no one gains from this PM.

If it did mean something, then it would have to mean something to one person (possibly more) and they would know what it means and have probably already acted on it.

[chickendude]

There's plenty of reason to why ap would do that
it distracts everyone
it makes sure that everyone knows that he knew that he might be wolfed

[talisman]

Yes because ap would want to distract everyone...

fish, meh, maybe. It's possible that you would. I'm way more suspicious of blah/iggy at this point.

the pm does seem ap-ish. Why only tps I have no clue.

[FishFishRevolution]

Alright, I've decided that I'm pretty suspicious of Omeganitros right now.

His first post, on page 3 (40pc) confirms all that he has not been paying close attention to the game and therefore would have being a likely candidate for not sending in the kill. His sparse posting is also strategically good for keeping the heat off of him. It's the behavior that won him manhunt and is the best way for Omega to win as a wolf. His lack of AIMing also upsets me, and adds to my suspicion.

Second post. Sums up what Kilga said, and then asks (not answers) a question. I don't like it one bit. Also he opens up the suspect list to include more people than him; smooth going.

Third post. Again bringing up information, but doing nothing with it besides a passive agreesive push in my direction. This post doesn't bother me as much, just because he would remember better than anyone, as he wanted the avatar before I took my first sabbatical from FFR Forums. ; ) <3 that av.

More questions, but no answers. What's the matter, Omega? Not doing any reasoning out yourself? Don't want to come to a conclusion that would either lead towards you or away from you, both which could be used against you? You're being AWFULLY too cautious in your posts, IMO, and it's quite reminiscent of you as a wolf.