TWG XXVIII: Card Sharks (or Wolves, rather)

[Wilkin]

Binion's Horseshoe Casino, Las Vegas, Nevada. The home of the World Series of Poker. Thirty-six world champions earned their fame and fortune in that building. Now, it was time to name another.

Not a world champion, but an invitational champion.

Sixteen professional poker players graciously accepted their invitation to this event, but only one would walk out with the $1 million first place prize. The lobby was full of players, casino staff, and the media, waiting as the double doors leading to the main floor finally opened. From the infamous Phil Hellmuth to the rising star Greg Raymer, they all walked into the room, complete with two tables full of chips, ready to play some Texas Hold'em.

Some of them, however, had another idea in mind. As everyone sat down at their respective seat, three pairs of hands patted at the cold decks in their pockets. "Winning is winning;" they thought, "it's the money that really matters."


Raymer took out his signature glasses, glancing around the room, "Good luck, everybody."

"Yeah, well, we'll see what luck has to do with it," they all looked over to Phil Hellmuth, "Poker's a game of skill, boys."

Phil Ivey remained silent as his small fan club watched hopefully from the lobby.

Sam Farha merely grinned through the dangling cigarette in his mouth.

"Phil, I think you're still looking for the kiddie game," Matusow turned, "Kiddie game's down the street. This is where it gets serious."

Hellmuth just shook his head and put his headphones on.


The director gave his speech to the players and cameras before the dealers took out the first deck of cards. Little did they know that one of the players would be out of the tournament before they could even restack their chips. The missing deck from one of the pockets made sure of that.

The dealer button was placed, and the cards were dealt.


----------------------------


It is now Night 1.

PMs as soon as possible (The roles are being sent out as I type this).

[Wilkin]

All roles have been sent out, awaiting PMs.

Character/Player/AIM List:

Hoyt Corkins - Afrobean (This Is Afrobean)
Phil Ivey - aperson (Phonem Recursive)
Sam Farha - blahblah18 (mastr414)
Layne Flack - chickendude (ChickenDude1313)
Huck Seed - FishFishRevolution (insanelikeafish)
Greg Raymer - HansSky (notsofaroff)
Phil Laak - iggymatrixcounter (iggy911mc)
Mike Matusow - JurseyRider734 (xxplatoniclove)
Men Nguyen - Kilgamayan (bjstrattonIM)
Todd Brunson - mead1 (Fhqwhgads703)
Daniel Negreanu - nforcer06164 (nforcer06164)
Chris Moneymaker - Omeganitros (OmegaNoxim)
David Sklansky - Psychozerosk8er (PsYcHoZeRoSk8eR)
Dan Harrington - talisman (stressreliefball)
Phil Hellmuth - Tasselfoot (Tasselfoot)
Phil Gordon -Tps222 (Tps7910)


Thanks to Jurs for the c/p.

[Wilkin]

To clear up any confusion:

The Mark (or whatever it shall be called) was chosen randomly along with all the other roles.

Contrary to my original idea, the wolves have/did/will not choose the mark at any time, and it is another permanent role, only the person does not know.

This will also prevent any theories of who the Mark could be, seeing as how there was no strategy in the decision.

Good playing,

Wilk

(PS - I'm Wilkini Evili on AIM for any questions or comments)

[Tasselfoot]

Hey Wilkin... wanted to let you know... its not written anywhere, but its an accepted rule that all the reds/blues have 24 hours to get their info to the host, otherwise they forfeit their action.

I would have said this to you over AIM, but you are no longer on AIM. Also, the fact that you edited your post above at 2am makes me believe that at least 1 group did not send you a PM within 24 hours, as 24 hours would have been up around Midnight.

[Wilkin]

"...and that's TIME."

The shark snapped to attention, only to find out that his hand was folded because he took to long to act. So much for that cold deck.

"Damn," he looked over to his other conspirators, "why can't we just make up a simple plan to execute?"

He tried to motion to the others, but they just seemed to be daydreaming as their hands were also folded.

"Every hand we fold is another hand these fish still live..." he murmured, "Even though, there's still next hand."

With a deep sigh, the shark shook his head inconspicuously and looked to the new cards in front of them. Maybe his cold deck was just late. Seven-deuce offsuit. Maybe not.

"There's still next hand."


---------------------


It is now Day 1.

The wolves have forfeited their chance at a kill by waiting for more than 24 hours to send a PM. I was hoping not to have to post a deadline, but it's been almost 36 hours, and pretty much the call is "Delay of game, 5 yard penalty, first down."

For you wolves, Douchebag Anonymous meetings are Wednesdays nights at 7 in the Senior Recreation Center.

For everyone else, enjoy your extra day.

Day will end at 10:00 PM EST (not FFR time) Monday.

[nforcer06164]

Owned.

So, now what do we do? On Day 1, we normally examine the Night 1 kill, make general assumptions, examine behavior very closely, and decide our lynch from that. But, what are we supposed to do without the cornerstone of our methods?

My thoughts have flown to looking at who is normally slight on making several posts and remaining very active. Unfortunately, I also think that isn't a very good idea, because anybody could be inactive or absent for any reason. Still, we need to start somewhere.

I find it highly unlikely that three members who are normally not very active are stuck together as wolves. However, I think that someone who is normally inactive will probably be stuck in the bunch based on the circumstances. So, who? My list of which I speculate at least one, in all probability, is a wolf, looks like this:

aperson (maybe)
blahblah18
chickendude (maybe)
HansSky
Kilgamayan
Psychozerosk8er (maybe)

To the credit of the maybes, they have been added to the list because I am not entirely sure of their activity, and I have reason to question it. I suggest that some of you affirm or refute some of my choices.

Other ideas that have been floating in my mind include the distribution of the wolf role. Though I don't know how prominent a role a newer player would be willing to make in a wolf decision, I don't want to rule out the possibility that we had two unavailable veterans and a new guy. The new guy, not being able to contact the senior players, waited, expecting to wait for them to make the kill, and letting the time elapse. If I was new, I'd probably do the same in that situation.

I'm going to look through posting histories right now to see who was absent for the past 36 hours or so and make a second post. It might help us arrive at a conclusion. Other than that, this is all I have for now.

[FishFishRevolution]

Afrobean - Last Activity: 03-16-2006 11:20 PM
blahblah18 - Last Activity: Yesterday 02:09 AM
Omeganitros - Last Activity: Yesterday 09:49 PM
Tps222 - Last Activity: Yesterday 10:31 PM
chickendude - Last Activity: Yesterday 10:33 PM
JurseyRider734 - Last Activity: Yesterday 10:56 PM
talisman - Last Activity: Yesterday 11:06 PM
HansSky - Last Activity: Yesterday 11:55 PM
Kilgamayan - Last Activity: Today 12:47 AM
Psychozerosk8er - Last Activity: Today 02:15 AM
iggymatrixcounter - Last Activity: Today 03:24 AM
mead1 - Last Activity: Today 04:17 AM
aperson - Last Activity: Today 06:58 AM
Tasselfoot - Last Activity: Today 10:38 AM
nforcer06164 - Last Activity: Today 11:00 AM
FishFishRevolution - Last Activity: Today 11:13 AM

The the only two real possibilities here are a purposeful not sending in of the kill to frame someone like Afro or blah, or that Afro/blah was supposed to be the one to send in the kill and he didn't, althought that seems terribly unlikely.

[FishFishRevolution]

Oooh, nforcer I like that idea of the two inactive vets with a freshie. Could go well with the log times of Afro and blah (maybe omega).

[Tps222]

Interesting take on the matter. Perhaps the wolves did this on purpose? I can see it happening, as it is already confusing us. I guess all we can really do now is analyze the reactions to the lack of the kill. Going through with the above-mentioned plan seems unlikely, as something like that always arises, and we usually just end up voting how people react to the idea instead of the people in the idea.

[nforcer06164]

People that have not made forum posts since the game started:

afrobean
aperson
blahblah18

questionable:

iggymatrixcounter (Only post since was early today, newer player)

That leaves matches from my TWG inactive list with aperson and blah. Though anybody can submit a kill without making a forum post, I find it highly unlikely that someone who was active would fail to make a kill. This then leaves the question of Psychozerosk8er and chickendude, who are also both newer players. chickendude was active. Psychozerosk8er had one or two posts after game start. Would they submit a kill without consulting a senior player?

Right now, from my own analysis, I'd put aperson and blah at the top of my suspicion list, followed closely by afro. I can't give credit, nor accuse any of the newer members right now, though, because that is only speculation.

[JurseyRider734]

Fish, that activity thing helps, but I don't think you and nforcer's are right considering both of your activity times were at the time you made your posts in this thread and after Wilkin posted.

I also haven't seen you post much in the past few days. Nforcer hardly posts anywhere anyway. I'm going with Afro/blah/Fish on the low activity in the past couple of days.

[JurseyRider734]

Also, those basketball games could be mighty distracting. Maybe the wolf was waiting for their other two partners to show up and went and watched basketball, and they didn't come back in time? Tps/Tass/Hans/Kilga are hardcore watching them, right?

[nforcer06164]

Also, an afterthought on the posts made during my analysis of forum posts:

I find it highly unlikely that the wolves would not send in a kill to frame any of afro/blah/aperson. The reason for this is: there is no guarantee that they will not make a post. Then, if they all did and the wolves were not around to make a kill, or they were not all around to consult each other, what happens?

Though it is a possibility, it's not a very intelligent strategy in my opinion. Also add the fact that a guarding or lack of kill usually spells doom for the wolves as it gives us an extra day. Though, if strategy were involved that really wouldn't matter.

[Tps222]

Talisman as well.

Stupid UAlbany.

[FishFishRevolution]

That's true Jurs, but I was on, making posts this morning, and would have had plenty of time to send in a kill even just this morning. Besides that, I signed on multiple times yesterday to check to see if the day had started, and didn't post anywhere else because I was busy doing other things.

TPS, I don't know about you, but I'm certainly not confused. There are only so many reasons why this would happen, we just have eliminate the wrong reasons.

[Tps222]

^ Directed towards Jurs.

I'm going to have to partially agree with nforcer. I can see the wolves doing it to confuse people, as we are right now.

[nforcer06164]

Eva, you have to remember that I just looked through the post histories for each member. Everybody that was NOT on the list made a post at some time before today where, if wolf, they had an opportunity to send in a kill. That rules me and fish out if we look solely at forum activity.

[nforcer06164]

I checked several times last night too, as fish did, to find that the game had started yet. I left at 7 and got back home around 11 (CST) and I could not get on the computer. I tried asking Tass via Mobile AIM if the game had started, and never got a response.

[JurseyRider734]

(11:46:29 AM) You have just entered room "twgxxviii."
(11:46:36 AM) Tps7910 has entered the room.
xxpla tonic love (11:46:38 AM): hi
Tps7910 (11:46:41 AM): YOU ARE CONFUSED.
(11:46:43 AM) notsofaroff has entered the room.
insanelikeafish (11:46:44 AM): haha
(11:46:44 AM) nforcer06164 has entered the room.
Tps7910 (11:46:46 AM): THATS FINAL
xxpla tonic love (11:46:46 AM): ?
notsofaroff (11:46:47 AM): holy ****
xxpla tonic love (11:46:49 AM): who's confused
notsofaroff (11:46:54 AM): so
Tps7910 (11:46:54 AM): EVERYONE
xxpla tonic love (11:46:59 AM): oh
notsofaroff (11:46:59 AM): I have AIM triton
Tps7910 (11:47:00 AM): Anyways.
insanelikeafish (11:47:01 AM): TPS is
insanelikeafish (11:47:08 AM): or he's at least trying to make us think we are
notsofaroff (11:47:12 AM): and this chat is in an IM format
Tps7910 (11:47:13 AM): Of course.
xxpla tonic love (11:47:19 AM): because Tps is a wolf?
insanelikeafish (11:47:25 AM): i'd say so
Tps7910 (11:47:30 AM): Anyways.
xxpla tonic love (11:47:35 AM): lol did we just see a wolf slip?
notsofaroff (11:47:35 AM): what's going on?

then he says

Tps7910 (11:47:56 AM): So?
xxpla tonic love (11:48:03 AM): who would say that besides a wolf?
Tps7910 (11:48:04 AM): Pointless accusations right now.
Tps7910 (11:48:07 AM): TPS wold.
Tps7910 (11:48:08 AM): would
xxpla tonic love (11:48:11 AM): bs
Tps7910 (11:48:12 AM): Anyways.
insanelikeafish (11:48:14 AM): stupid claws
xxpla tonic love (11:48:20 AM): stop trying to change the subject lol


i dunno about you but it looks like Tps didn't know I was there. Then he tries to quickly change the subject from the "You are confused" thing after I say that. Just posting it so everyone can see it because not everyone is in the chat.

[Tps222]

You're retarded Jurs.

So Fish and I are wolves, we set up a public chat, invited people into it, and then we talk wolfy plans?

Come on.