TWG CLXXII - TWGood End!

[mellonxcollie]

Originally Posted by AragakiAyase

literally like

95% chance I win if I don't fakeclaim

that drops significantly if I do

and I'm not a dumb player lol

It's a game where you can make plays that are interesting, not always by-the-book strategies. You were simply over confident in your fake claiming abilities that you didn't think your chances of losing went down significantly

I'm not a dumb player either

[blindreper1179]

You guys aren't fooling anyone, we're all dumb players! Wooooooooooo!

[AragakiAyase]

Originally Posted by mellonxcollie

It's a game where you can make plays that are interesting, not always by-the-book strategies. You were simply over confident in your fake claiming abilities that you didn't think your chances of losing went down significantly

I'm not a dumb player either

I've never fakeclaimed except when I got red checked in an MU turbo lol

if there's anything I do it's by the book

[mellonxcollie]

Originally Posted by AragakiAyase

I've never fakeclaimed except when I got red checked in an MU turbo lol

if there's anything I do it's by the book

and right now also, don't forget when you fake claimed this game too

[TWG Ike]

the only way lynching roundbox backfires is if haku is scum initiate and the team is mellon/InD start + haku

[inDheart]

fwiw

i don't know why raeko doesn't just claim a shot on haku

that's still confusing

[mellonxcollie]

Originally Posted by inDheart

fwiw

i don't know why raeko doesn't just claim a shot on haku

that's still confusing

because I told the truth and the truth is that I shot you

[inDheart]

it's 2 shot gunsmith all over again

[inDheart]

why do i hate it when people lie in a game about lying

[blindreper1179]

Originally Posted by inDheart

why do i hate it when people lie in a game about lying

*alien guy meme*

Logic

[DaBackpack]

To preface this: I am not above "laming" the game. I have no pride, no dignity I need to protect. Only winning.

I think Haku is the best lynch today from a purely mechanical standpoint.

Haku has claimed MVX. I don't doubt this. The only thing I DO doubt is his alignment. I see two possibilities:

1) Haku is self-aligned.
2) Haku is wolf-aligned.

Based on the interactions in this phase so far, I see exactly two worlds:

1) Haku is self-aligned and Raeko is a wolf. Since Haku is self-aligned, there are only two wolves.
2) Haku is wolf-aligned and AA is a wolf. Since Haku is wolf-aligned, there are exactly three wolves.

If we live in World 2 and we mislynch, town instaloses. If we live in World 1 and we mislynch, we get another day to live.

If we lynch Haku in World 2, we get another day to live, and we lynch AA.
If we lynch Haku in World 1, we get another day to live, and we lynch Raeko.

Instead of taking a 50/50 shot at instalosing, I'd rather take the safe road.

Everybody please check my math here. If I made a mistake, it could cost us.

[inDheart]

so wait, wasn't there a point in here where we *knew* one between raeko and AA was always a wolf?

wouldn't AA have to fakeclaim as a wolf to not die?

[blindreper1179]

Originally Posted by DaBackpack

To preface this: I am not above "laming" the game. I have no pride, no dignity I need to protect. Only winning.

I think Haku is the best lynch today from a purely mechanical standpoint.

Haku has claimed MVX. I don't doubt this. The only thing I DO doubt is his alignment. I see two possibilities:

1) Haku is self-aligned.
2) Haku is wolf-aligned.

Based on the interactions in this phase so far, I see exactly two worlds:

1) Haku is self-aligned and Raeko is a wolf. Since Haku is self-aligned, there are only two wolves.
2) Haku is wolf-aligned and AA is a wolf. Since Haku is wolf-aligned, there are exactly three wolves.

If we live in World 2 and we mislynch, town instaloses. If we live in World 1 and we mislynch, we get another day to live.

If we lynch Haku in World 2, we get another day to live, and we lynch AA.
If we lynch Haku in World 1, we get another day to live, and we lynch Raeko.

Instead of taking a 50/50 shot at instalosing, I'd rather take the safe road.

Everybody please check my math here. If I made a mistake, it could cost us.

Your math is right, but why for sure Raeko or AA in each scenario?

[mellonxcollie]

Originally Posted by DaBackpack

To preface this: I am not above "laming" the game. I have no pride, no dignity I need to protect. Only winning.

I think Haku is the best lynch today from a purely mechanical standpoint.

Haku has claimed MVX. I don't doubt this. The only thing I DO doubt is his alignment. I see two possibilities:

1) Haku is self-aligned.
2) Haku is wolf-aligned.

Based on the interactions in this phase so far, I see exactly two worlds:

1) Haku is self-aligned and Raeko is a wolf. Since Haku is self-aligned, there are only two wolves.
2) Haku is wolf-aligned and AA is a wolf. Since Haku is wolf-aligned, there are exactly three wolves.

If we live in World 2 and we mislynch, town instaloses. If we live in World 1 and we mislynch, we get another day to live.

If we lynch Haku in World 2, we get another day to live, and we lynch AA.
If we lynch Haku in World 1, we get another day to live, and we lynch Raeko.

Instead of taking a 50/50 shot at instalosing, I'd rather take the safe road.

Everybody please check my math here. If I made a mistake, it could cost us.

This is right as far as I figured

[blindreper1179]

Originally Posted by inDheart

so wait, wasn't there a point in here where we *knew* one between raeko and AA was always a wolf?

wouldn't AA have to fakeclaim as a wolf to not die?

No.

[inDheart]

Originally Posted by blindreper1179

Your math is right, but why for sure Raeko or AA in each scenario?

if haku's self aligned then he's likely telling the truth, if he's wolf aligned then he's likely lying

[Charu]

Originally Posted by mellonxcollie

you're not paranoid this is exactly what happened, and either way it's the smartest thing to do for town.

charu and AA are trying to push a lynch on me over Haku which is objectively the wrong move. This is anti-town behaviour

Not really... going for the Haku lynch just because you don't want to get lynched yourself is pretty anti-towny though.

But hey, what do I know? I didn't just spend most of my afternoon trying to figure things out.

[AragakiAyase]

Originally Posted by inDheart

so wait, wasn't there a point in here where we *knew* one between raeko and AA was always a wolf?

wouldn't AA have to fakeclaim as a wolf to not die?

No? The other wolf could have been in the VT pile and I can just claim vt

[AragakiAyase]

What if haku isn't mvx lmao

[Charu]

Originally Posted by blindreper1179

It's the safest thing we have. Lol

So vote for something that could be a dud, a good thing, or a bad thing for town.

I really don't think that's safe, but whatever.