Old 09-14-2018, 08:52 PM   #81
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Default Re: Hurricane Florence

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It doesn't back your claim because the upper bound estimates of 2000 ppm have been refuted by more recent evidence. Our proxy records have high uncertainty that is slowly narrowing over time as we improve our paleoclimate record. The paper that I linked you to was from 2014 and was significantly cited because it refuted those overly high estimates. Modern scientific consensus in 2018 is better than modern scientific consensus in 2004 in the same way that our 5 day hurricane error cone in 2018 is as big as our 3 day hurricane error cone in 2004.

So your claim that carbon levels haven't significantly changed is bullshit because the ceiling is now twice as low as it was originally. And for the record, our current value of ~410ppm is higher than any other time during the quaternary altogether. It hasn't occurred since the mid Paleocene and by the late 21st century we could reach values that are more in line with modern estimates of the Eocene.

And of course, now that your claims are shown to be complete bullshit because someone waltzed into the thread that actually know the science, you're going to go back to your tired trope of calling modern climate science "agenda-driven" because you're a stupid man that can't admit when you're wrong.
I'm not stupid if that's the case then I am wrong and maybe I need to do more research I'm interested in seeing more info if you want to talk about this somewhere else we can, maybe discord? I would be inclined to hear it from you.

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Old 09-14-2018, 09:14 PM   #82
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Default Re: Hurricane Florence

so I used to not really care about climate change and thought that it was probably overhyped. I started seriously learning about it to get a basic understanding of how our earth system works at an atmospheric, biological, and chemical level to essentially sustain life as an ongoing chemical reaction.

The first thing that really made my attention perk up was how non-linear our earth system is and how much it can be perturbed by really small fluctuations to create huge downstream events. Our glacial and inter-glacial cycles throughout the Quaternary are mostly driven by tiny changes in solar radiation created by gyroscopic changes in how the Earth rotates about the sun.

It's a common climate denial argument that these changes in orbital dynamics cause climate change therefore climate change is natural. What really surprised me though is how quantitatively tiny the changes in solar radiation from those effects are. A few percentage points of a change in the incoming shortwave radiation and our planet goes from mostly covered in thick ice to how it looks in the modern era. Then I went and looked at the quantitative changes caused by the radiative forcing of doubling or tripling CO2. Then my eyes got really big because carbon forcing is an order of magnitude larger in effect size in both directions.

If you really want to learn climate science imo you need to quit seeing climate scientists as agenda driven. The fact is that we basically walked up to an amplifier and started cranking one of the knobs up as fast as we could. The changes that we're causing are both drastic and highly uncertain. Paleoclimate records like the end-Permian mass extinction and the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum tells us that when we fucked with carbon things get extremely hot and extremely sulfury really fast (and sometimes a lot of things die). The Great Oxygenation Event (and to a lesser extent the Azolla Event) tell us that when we draw down carbon things very rapidly get cold and icy.

Just change your perspective on what climate scientists tell you and go read serious climate sources (check skepticalscience as a phenomenal one for starters) and you can get up to date on 2018 consensus climate knowledge fairly quickly. It's both very well researched and presented with an effort on being publicly visible and digestible.
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Old 09-14-2018, 11:08 PM   #83
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Default Re: Hurricane Florence

This thread got hijacked hard, lmao
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Old 09-14-2018, 11:12 PM   #84
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Default Re: Hurricane Florence

good interlude time while we wait for ridiculous precipitation numbers to show up tomorrow morning
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Old 09-15-2018, 07:42 PM   #85
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Default Re: Hurricane Florence

gl to the OP wilmington is about to get smoked by a newly developing rain band for the next 12+ hours
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Old 09-15-2018, 08:06 PM   #86
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gl to the OP wilmington is about to get smoked by a newly developing rain band for the next 12+ hours
i like aperson cause hes smart
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Old 09-15-2018, 08:19 PM   #87
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Default Re: Hurricane Florence

even though his brain is full of spiders

where about & when did you start learning about climate change aperson? Did you study it or something? Because that's a paragraph that looks like it came from a university essay.
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Old 09-15-2018, 11:32 PM   #88
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Default Re: Hurricane Florence

wilmington's now under the intense rainband and it looks like they're going to have lots of tornado warnings to deal with. be safe reptile.



about the most amount of tornadic couplets i've seen together in any storm.
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Old 09-16-2018, 04:04 AM   #89
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Default Re: Hurricane Florence

Here I thought we were going to take this hurricane seriously yet everyone in the area is pretty much memeing the shit out of it but I mean I'm still alive so yay :3

(I'm in NC)
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Old 09-16-2018, 08:58 AM   #90
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Default Re: Hurricane Florence

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wilmington's now under the intense rainband and it looks like they're going to have lots of tornado warnings to deal with. be safe reptile
Appreciate that, man. <3 Everything is still going well where I’m at, and they have been actively working on getting power back in the area. Also kokonoe, where in NC are you at? I know a lot of areas got it worse than we did here. Hope you’re alright, bro.
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Old 09-16-2018, 11:01 AM   #91
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Default Re: Hurricane Florence

happy national day of prayer for victims of hurricane katrina
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Old 09-16-2018, 06:07 PM   #92
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Default Re: Hurricane Florence

Hurricane Harambe

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