Old 05-9-2019, 11:21 AM   #1281
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Default Re: TWG CLXXXV: C9+++++++++ Game Thread

funny that the team i'm thinking of is antori/mellon/shado because shado conveniently left mellon out of the potential godfathers in that post
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Old 05-9-2019, 11:25 AM   #1282
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Default Re: TWG CLXXXV: C9+++++++++ Game Thread

Oh just saw daikyi post on rolecopping roundbox. Hadn't considered that and invalidates my relevant sentence. Where can I find the letter roll dist for Ts/rolecops? All that's listed in the OP is the other letters but I could've sworn I saw it there before
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Old 05-9-2019, 11:30 AM   #1283
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funny that the team i'm thinking of is antori/mellon/shado because shado conveniently left mellon out of the potential godfathers in that post
... mellon isn't relevant to the you/daikyi in that scenario. Reason I said one of you two is because roundbox claimed to have blocked each of you two, so (without factoring in rolecop), it means Antori could've known there was a roleblocker only if one of you two were his partner.

But WITH factoring in rolecop, that gets discarded entirely because we're definitely not in a world with 0 Ts as claims have it rn
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Old 05-9-2019, 11:39 AM   #1284
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Default Re: TWG CLXXXV: C9+++++++++ Game Thread

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... mellon isn't relevant to the you/daikyi in that scenario. Reason I said one of you two is because roundbox claimed to have blocked each of you two, so (without factoring in rolecop), it means Antori could've known there was a roleblocker only if one of you two were his partner.

But WITH factoring in rolecop, that gets discarded entirely because we're definitely not in a world with 0 Ts as claims have it rn
IT is entirely relevant with the roles we've got considering yoshl's post. rb getting rolecopped would let scum know they can throw out a fake oneshot claim. leaving the rolecop which seers red to be someone that hasn't been greenchecked, and the godfather to be the other that hasn't been greenchecked or someone that has (me, daikyi, and mellon which you left out)
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Old 05-9-2019, 11:40 AM   #1285
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Default Re: TWG CLXXXV: C9+++++++++ Game Thread

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... mellon isn't relevant to the you/daikyi in that scenario. Reason I said one of you two is because roundbox claimed to have blocked each of you two, so (without factoring in rolecop), it means Antori could've known there was a roleblocker only if one of you two were his partner.

But WITH factoring in rolecop, that gets discarded entirely because we're definitely not in a world with 0 Ts as claims have it rn
scratch my post then
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Old 05-9-2019, 11:44 AM   #1286
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assuming cops are legit, we lynch in the red pool regardless because there's >=2 wolves in there (setup determines that there has to be 3 wolves at this point with assumptions of roles)

until godfather flips, or until there's only the godfather left (assuming we're not at 0Ts, and that godfather is also locked into this particular roll) we lynch in the non-green checked pool tbh. and that's indheart/shadowolfe at this point.

if antori is actually a roleblocker wolf, then assuming both cops are legit, wolves can only kill one out of MML/Haku and we have a very easy next lynch. there's a lot of permutations that come out of roles not being legit, but we'll probably get there when it happens. If anything, if antori DOES flip as 1-shot roleblocker, there's a serial killer playing it super fucking deep, or has been roleblocked constantly (lmfao)
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Old 05-9-2019, 11:44 AM   #1287
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Default Re: TWG CLXXXV: C9+++++++++ Game Thread

i think the only locked person in this setup is roundbox, regardless of how antori flips lol
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Old 05-9-2019, 12:36 PM   #1288
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Default Re: TWG CLXXXV: C9+++++++++ Game Thread

roundbox (1)- MML
MML (1)- Antori
unvote- Shado, inD, roundbox
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Old 05-9-2019, 12:53 PM   #1289
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i think the only locked person in this setup is roundbox, regardless of how antori flips lol
ballin

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Old 05-9-2019, 01:43 PM   #1290
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however, if the number of Ts is odd, there is a serial killer in the setup.

the only way to resolve the claimed PRs to not have a serial killer is if antori is fake, because specifically the 1 shot roleblocker only generates 1 letter and is contingent on a full roleblocker present in the game.

current running hypothesis is that wolves potentially rolecopped roundbox, and coordinated antori feeling safe to claim 1-shot roleblocker before roundbox claimes, to make him look like a really strong claim (because of the dependency) however, probably they didnt account for the setup serial killer thing
Thanks for clarifying this. I really doubt there's a SK in this game so, it makes things simple.

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Old 05-9-2019, 02:14 PM   #1291
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Do we want to lynch a VT or a PR first and why ? Should we just go by tone at this point ?
Can we get info from a lynch that leads to a 2nd lynch that is sort of safe ?

Pretty much the questions everyone should be asking themselves at this point.
much as lynching a vt would actually have us play twg a bit more, we know there's a faker and we might as well look for that person

i think the second lynch is decently telegraphed at this point -
if antori flips town blocker then a cop is fake
if antori flips wolf then i know to lynch either a cop claim or shado

by comparison, trying to godfather hunt earlier and when we have a spare lynch feels risky because it easily could be a poor use of that spare lynch

but this shouldn't preclude people running through potential pairings; e.g. i could see mml/shado being a twofer because who offhandedly remembers who started hypocops for a cop claim at eod-2min, and would know to push roundbox as a role
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Old 05-9-2019, 02:15 PM   #1292
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roundbox is only locked under assumption there's no SK, which i guess is the dominating theory
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Old 05-9-2019, 02:19 PM   #1293
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Yeah I just don't wanna lose all my stuff that's on there. It's a great laptop too idk what happened.
Anyway.

In terms of believing roundbox over Antori, you kind of have to if you don't believe in an SK. Antori's claim relies on roundbox, meaning a 1shot roleblocker can't exist without the full roleblocker. I believed Antori at first pending roundbox confirmation from a full roleblocker (because he claimed one-shot before the full), but just now realized that if he's a wolf that he MAY have known for a fact that there's a roleblocker ONLY if the wolf kill was roleblocked on one night.

Meaning if there is no SK, I don't see a wolf claiming 1shot without knowing the full existed.

Also means that if Antori is a wolf, that one in daikyi/gradiant has to be his partner. Considering cop claims, that partner would likely be the godfather, or else one of the cops is lying.


Sorry for the disjointed thoughts, I just wanted to clarify the 1shot for you and things started falling into place. OK, be back in a bit
i don't understand the bolded
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Old 05-9-2019, 02:27 PM   #1294
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ah i got it
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Old 05-9-2019, 02:33 PM   #1295
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dai 0T is only possible now if a town is trying to make a big dick play slash move
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Old 05-9-2019, 03:00 PM   #1296
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antori
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Old 05-9-2019, 03:02 PM   #1297
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and fmpov single-T is impossible

**TTTTT = 7/8x vt. this is a rather ridiculous world of 2 or 3 fake claims
CCBTTTT = 7x vt. in this setup there is only one inv immune, but either 1 or 2 of the green checks are fake. unsure i can deduce anything else from that
CCCCTTT = 7x vt. with 4 vt flips thus far, and two antitown that seer green, i know that 1/3 of the green checks is another vt, but can't conclude anything else and that leaves 2 scum among 4 players, 3 of whom have to be exactly the inv-immune scum if they are scum. flip-dependent whether this locks shado, i think - if antori and roundbox flip different colors then shado is lock red. but this doesn't feel like much of a real world anyway
CCBBTTT = 6x vt. this setup has 2 inv immune and assumes at least one fake peek, so can't conclude anything about the vt claims
CCCCBTT = 7x vt. in this world shado and i tdome. from others' perspective you lynch both of us always if antori somehow flips godfather, but otherwise there only has to be one wolf between us
CCCCBBT = 5x vt. this is invalidated fmpov bc i would have to be the only true vt claimant, though from others' perspective this is the exacting requirements i talked about before - shado and i would have to be exactly the wolves that flip red, and both the godfather and SK are in the green checks, and the remaining green check is the only true vt

so i think it still comes down to how much people believe in a fake cop. wolves are likely forced to reveal something about the setup overNight but i'm unsure whether it'll make my job any easier tomorrow

basically doing this because i wanted to see how much of the time you can lynch both me and shado and hit nothing and lose
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Old 05-9-2019, 03:10 PM   #1298
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Default Re: TWG CLXXXV: C9+++++++++ Game Thread

i dont know what to say at this point except you're all wrong
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Old 05-9-2019, 03:35 PM   #1299
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i dont know what to say at this point except you're all wrong
so is there not a serial killer?
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Old 05-9-2019, 03:37 PM   #1300
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Default Re: TWG CLXXXV: C9+++++++++ Game Thread

I am attempting to find a replacement mod, if I cannot find one, I will need to end the phase 10ish minutes early.
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