TWG CLXIII: Allies and Adversaries - GAME THREAD

[Vendetta21]

Originally Posted by meno_rocks123

Well shit, folks. Looks like we have a good old fashioned double role claim up in this bitch.

Now, I may have been out of the game for the past few years but, I see no reason to change the age old plan of lynching both players starting with the initial claimant. Applying basic logic skills to the play, there is no reason for a wolf to counterclaim a human, even to take out a strong power role. This would have to be an extraordinarily ballsy play by wolf lito to trade 1:1 for a PR, so it's extremely unlikely that he is a wolf. However, should V not flip favourably, we will also need to lynch lito tomorrow.

V

the latent thing here is that he knows we are both human and isn't sure yet who is the seer -- given the likelihood that lito could not be vanillager and be freaking out because i misidentified him which he doesnt know yet.

but if he is wrong, it doesn't matter because he killed a human anyways, and this logic is so easily defensible from his perspective that it doesn't matter and he can make this lazy play and walk away with a vote on me for the rest of the phase

[Vendetta21]

i think the bigger thing here is this play is profoundly lazy and would make a wolves life much easier later because he doesn't have much to defend while killing a human.

[ShadoWolfe]

Originally Posted by Vendetta21

i hadn't thought about it until now but if i was a wolf it would have made a lot more sense to peek another wolf given that it would reduce my chance of being wrong

This is what's been making me hesitate on you tbh. Reasons you mightve wanted to avoid peeking a wolf are that it forces them into a fakenilla paradigm for the rest of the game (prevents later fakeclaiming), and draws suspicion to them if your claim is challenged. Still, it certainly would've hedged your risk of being called out if there was no seer, which is why I hesitate in assuming that your peek was on lito just because you thought he was green.

On the other hand, even a 30% to strike it rich (successfully impersonating the seer) would be favorable odds if the consequence of getting called out is just temporary suspicion that you talk yourself out of while learning the identity of the seer. Like, wolf V at this point would be pretty close to walking home Scott-free after carrying out such a risky mission behind enemy lines.

[meno_rocks123]

Originally Posted by Vendetta21

but look at the intentions and the thought process in mike's post. so far, that post does nothing for humanity except definitely, totally, kill a seer

Given the choice of guaranteeing a wolf kill, it's 100% worth sacrificing the seer. Also, the person who initially claims is more likely to be the false claim due to the severe risk of a wolf counter-claiming a human role.

The seer this game is pretty gimped, anyways. We have 100 different colours (hyperbole) that could correspond to any alignment, or a semi-nightly alignment check. Seer is pretty nerfed right now compared to a normal game and that only really increases my willingness to drop a 1:1 seer:wolf trade.

Also, at the very least, this is inciting a ton of discussion and it's nice to have people critically posting because it gives us a chance to go full English major on them.

[Vendetta21]

Originally Posted by meno_rocks123

Given the choice of guaranteeing a wolf kill, it's 100% worth sacrificing the seer. Also, the person who initially claims is more likely to be the false claim due to the severe risk of a wolf counter-claiming a human role.

The seer this game is pretty gimped, anyways. We have 100 different colours (hyperbole) that could correspond to any alignment, or a semi-nightly alignment check. Seer is pretty nerfed right now compared to a normal game and that only really increases my willingness to drop a 1:1 seer:wolf trade.

Also, at the very least, this is inciting a ton of discussion and it's nice to have people critically posting because it gives us a chance to go full English major on them.

why dont you go full english major on them then

[Vendetta21]

Originally Posted by ShadoWolfe

This is what's been making me hesitate on you tbh. Reasons you mightve wanted to avoid peeking a wolf are that it forces them into a fakenilla paradigm for the rest of the game (prevents later fakeclaiming), and draws suspicion to them if your claim is challenged. Still, it certainly would've hedged your risk of being called out if there was no seer, which is why I hesitate in assuming that your peek was on lito just because you thought he was green.

On the other hand, even a 30% to strike it rich (successfully impersonating the seer) would be favorable odds if the consequence of getting called out is just temporary suspicion that you talk yourself out of while learning the identity of the seer. Like, wolf V at this point would be pretty close to walking home Scott-free after carrying out such a risky mission behind enemy lines.

yeah but you then factor in my incentives versus my disincentives and think of me as a human with a limited amount of effort i'm able to put in: is this a play that seems like it is asking for more effort than is necessary as a wolf or something i did lazily because it's common play enough with n0 peeks to have an acronym on one of the biggest twg forums on the internet?

are you seeing more complexity and intent in the situation than it merits? the answer is yes but you have to ask yourself that before getting deeper and deeper in the rabbit hole of contingencies as each last incriminating thing you thought about me ends up panning out

[ShadoWolfe]

Originally Posted by Vendetta21

why dont you go full english major on them then

Lol +1

[meno_rocks123]

For you, I honestly don't need any of your other posts. Your entrance post is enough for me right now.

Originally Posted by Vendetta21

peeked litodude vanilla green last night

To use a word that I know you like to put in posts to make someone else seem wolfy, this reeks of cop claim, not hypocop. It's very matter of fact with no mention of hypocop or any indication that anyone else should. If you're trying to defend yourself as if you set up a hypocop strat, then why is your original claim completely devoid of it?

Originally Posted by Vendetta21

balance of probability says the vigi is dead, but it could be a wolf

This is actually one of the most useless filler texts you could have possibly tacked on. "A red died so it was either wolf or vigi. It was probably vigi though for no discernible reason." Seriously, if we want to throw percentages out there, the odds of actually having a vigi are just as low as having a seer, and the only way the wolves' n0 kill wasn't a complete shot in the dark (which easily could have backfired) is if the sabo decided to exercise their power to ensure the wolves didn't kill themselves n0 (a stupid move).



The whole last two pages since lito called you out have been you backpedaling as hard as you possibly could to deflect heat away from yourself, but that shit isn't going to fly. I actually like shado's last point that I'm just going to quote it instead of trying to think up some alternate way of saying it myself.

On the other hand, even a 30% to strike it rich (successfully impersonating the seer) would be favorable odds if the consequence of getting called out is just temporary suspicion that you talk yourself out of while learning the identity of the seer. Like, wolf V at this point would be pretty close to walking home Scott-free after carrying out such a risky mission behind enemy lines.

[meno_rocks123]

I should add that this is a solid game for the seer to just come out point blank. The wolves have to invest a ton of resources that they probably don't even have to try taking killing it and even then it isn't guaranteed because an equally low probability guardian could sacrifice the seer's power for one night to protect them and fuck the wolves over.

[Vendetta21]

you should read me other psots

[Vendetta21]

Originally Posted by meno_rocks123

I should add that this is a solid game for the seer to just come out point blank. The wolves have to invest a ton of resources that they probably don't even have to try taking killing it and even then it isn't guaranteed because an equally low probability guardian could sacrifice the seer's power for one night to protect them and fuck the wolves over.

you should read my other posts

[meno_rocks123]

It turns out that in a game where we have to assume that all of the wolf special roles are present and acting competently, the wolves also need to assume that all human roles are present and acting competently.

[ShadoWolfe]

Originally Posted by Vendetta21

yeah but you then factor in my incentives versus my disincentives and think of me as a human with a limited amount of effort i'm able to put in: is this a play that seems like it is asking for more effort than is necessary as a wolf or something i did lazily because it's common play enough with n0 peeks to have an acronym on one of the biggest twg forums on the internet?

are you seeing more complexity and intent in the situation than it merits? the answer is yes but you have to ask yourself that before getting deeper and deeper in the rabbit hole of contingencies as each last incriminating thing you thought about me ends up panning out

I'm not seeing more complexity and intent than the situation merits. I've looked at it from the simplest of reasonings, "V just faked his peek in an easily misconstrued fashion out of laziness", to the level of complexity bordering on tinfoiling. In terms of incentive, factoring in human willingness to reduce the required amount of effort as a wolf doesn't help or detract from your defense in the slightest. Yes, you've had to do more work defending yourself now, but you would've had the cushiest, least-efforty game ever if your gamble had paid off.

Enough of that, though. I'm beginning to repeat myself. You brought up a point I wanted to get back to:

You keep saying your actions have their own acronym, but the only acronym you've brought up is SHC. In a game like this, how would RSing SHC anyone, and who were you trying to seerhunt clear by fakeclaiming/roleswapping seer?

[meno_rocks123]

Originally Posted by Vendetta21

you should read my other posts

Have any specific post you're trying to allude to, because I've read your entire wall of backpedaling. It amounts to "Oh shit, lito's the real seer. Guys, I was just joking I'm actually a human and I was faking seer so that we could clear a human in a game where it would be unbelievably foolish for wolves to waste valuable resources that may not even exist in taking out a VT."

Am I missing anything, or should I dig a little deeper?

[Vendetta21]

balance of probability suggests vigi because wolves have the ability to collaborate and 3-4 people talking about who to target might illicit details about someones meta and who they are more likely to pick out, additionally not all wolf roles are red only 1/3rd of them, so given a high-red scenario its 2/16 wolf roles and 1/16 human roles that are red. wolves with their combined information are going to try to pick someone who they don't think will target one of them, theyn know they can die with their choice so this is the primary point of discussion they would have on night one -- at least one might have enough knowledge of meta to select a viable target that wouldnt pick a wolf, and this is what they will obviously anchor to, someone who would select an ally that isn't one of them, as best they can

[meno_rocks123]

"Also it was a bad idea for lito to actually come out as seer even though I did that right before him with no mention of strategizing seer claims."

[Vendetta21]

Originally Posted by meno_rocks123

Have any specific post you're trying to allude to, because I've read your entire wall of backpedaling. It amounts to "Oh shit, lito's the real seer. Guys, I was just joking I'm actually a human and I was faking seer so that we could clear a human in a game where it would be unbelievably foolish for wolves to waste valuable resources that may not even exist in taking out a VT."

Am I missing anything, or should I dig a little deeper?

howabout a bayesian analysis of how wrong i was going to be on the outset (somewhere around above a supermajority of the time)

it's still clear you haven't understood it but i basically point out that there was only a 40% best-case chance i wouldn't be wrong (and known by another player to be wrong) before considering picking lito, which introduces a second compound chance of being wrong (37.5% on average) of calling someone a vanillager who wasn't.

[meno_rocks123]

Originally Posted by Vendetta21

balance of probability suggests vigi because wolves have the ability to collaborate and 3-4 people talking about who to target might illicit details about someones meta and who they are more likely to pick out, additionally not all wolf roles are red only 1/3rd of them, so given a high-red scenario its 2/16 wolf roles and 1/16 human roles that are red.

Wrong. You're forgetting a regular old non-PR wolf. Let's assume we have 4 wolves because it's a 16 player game and that's totally reasonable. I'd wager that half of them were given PRs, so that would leave 2.67/16 players seering red and being wolves and .33-.5/16 players seering red and being human. That's 5.33-8x higher odds of a red flip being a wolf.

See how numbers can get thrown around like that? I'm really surprised you're so adamant that a vigi died last night when the game is so mystery that we could stack it in either direction by changing any of the numbers above.

[Vendetta21]

Originally Posted by meno_rocks123

"Also it was a bad idea for lito to actually come out as seer even though I did that right before him with no mention of strategizing seer claims."

i never said it was a bad idea for lito to come out as seer. in fact i said it didn't matter after thinking about it. does it matter? am i missing something or is lito less vulnerable coming out?

[Vendetta21]

Originally Posted by meno_rocks123

Wrong. You're forgetting a regular old non-PR wolf. Let's assume we have 4 wolves because it's a 16 player game and that's totally reasonable. I'd wager that half of them were given PRs, so that would leave 2.67/16 players seering red and being wolves and .33-.5/16 players seering red and being human. That's 5.33-8x higher odds of a red flip being a wolf.

See how numbers can get thrown around like that? I'm really surprised you're so adamant that a vigi died last night when the game is so mystery that we could stack it in either direction by changing any of the numbers above.

the set-up says nothing about non-PR wolves