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Old 01-31-2005, 12:20 PM   #21
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That would be quite helpful for the slackers eyespew (Namely Me).

Anyway, at this point there is little if anything to put stock in. Matt made a good point that speaks to me: eb might have been attempting to control the two noobs by being a nice guy. However, I feel unless I see evidence otherwise supporting his being a wolf, I think he was just being a nice guy.

Eyespew also pointed out another thing that has thusly went unmentioned: The Devil kinda throws off the safety of an alliance. That stratedgy is no longer nearly as safe, or as reliable.

I think I'm in a bit over my head now
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Old 01-31-2005, 12:27 PM   #22
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Mead: The devil is almost as bad as the Master Wolf was in previous games. He is seered as human, so the alliance might take him in--but he also can't wolf anyone. All he can do is try to convince the wolves that he is in fact the devil, and give them ideas as to who to kill. If they don't believe him, though, they might just kill him.

Matt: EB is attempting to be the missing Tass/Blah of the other games. Assuming he is human, he would naturally want to know if you had a special role so he could involve you in the alliance he's trying to put together. If you go right off the bat and assume he's a wolf, does that mean ANYONE who asks about special roles is a wolf in your eyes?

And Tps...you've played before. You know random votes are bad for the humans. Don't do it. Think of SOMETHING to say and vote for someone based on that, even if it is sketchy evidence.
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Old 01-31-2005, 01:18 PM   #23
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Matt, as a newb, I figured it best to advise you on the game. You said you weren't sending PMs to blah, in the midst of a bunch of talk about wolves and special roles needing to send PMs to blah, which would imply that you weren't a special role. But why would anybody in their right mind say such a thing? I took it to mean that you were sending PMs. A wolf wouldn't be stupid enough to announce this (at least, I'd hope not) so I figured I'd contact you about it. If you do have a special role, which may be the case, you need to be MUCH more careful. The Devil may look at you first, or perhaps the wolves will kill you just for insenuating you have a role (unless that special role is that you are a wolf, which is also possible). I'm not trying to "be the missing Tass/Blah," I'm just trying to be helpful to the new-comers.

And so what if I want to know the special roles? We all do. Wolves want to know them to kill them, Humans want to know them so they can form an alliance and weed out the wolves. And of course we all ask in a friendly way. If you force the issue people assume you're a wolf and lynch you.

And Jurs, I wasn't trying to say you were a wolf, I was just pointing out connections. It's all I know how to do on Day 1. I'm vary wary of accusing anyone or doing anything, because more than likely I'll kill a human. I STILL feel bad for lynching Chardish (a mason) in that one game, even though it helped lead to the human victory. The last thing I want is to run out and accuse people and get them killed wrongly.

And whorli's right. Random votes are bad for the humans (I think I said this before, but whatever). We need to continue on in discussion and hopefully somebody will slip up and reveal themselves. Using slight suspicions (as Matt tried to do) in order to provoke a response is one thing, but flat out random voting accomplishes nothing at all.

And as far as suspicions go, the only person who strikes me as slightly suspicious is mead1. It's already been established that it wasn't somebody closed to Panda that did it, or at least that they didn't kill her just because of being close, but mead1 said it was possible anyway. Not much to go on, but it's just a thought, and definitly not worthy of a vote.
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Old 01-31-2005, 02:26 PM   #24
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OK, all I really have to say that a double or triple reverse psychology would be PERFECT right now. You all are saying "oh it couldn't have been Guido because no one would be that stupid." Did you ever stop to think thta maybe Guido is a wolf and he was counting on you all responding like that?

Not saying I'm especially suspicious of Guido, it just pisses me off that you don't think a wolf would pull double reverse psychology when it is an almost fool proof plan.

I've got nothing right now, but a little bit of suspicion on the newbs. I'm sure that at least one of them is a wolf.
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Old 01-31-2005, 02:27 PM   #25
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I can't believe that the double reverse psychology from the Matrix TWG I proposed is still being used. -_-
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Old 01-31-2005, 02:36 PM   #26
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I agree with afrobean. I don't suspect anyone right now, but everyone is like "let's rule out guido and alain and jurs" and if even one of them was a wolf, it would be perfect for them (the wolves, that is). But as of now, no one is coming up on my wolf-dar (or perhaps...gangster-dar)
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Old 01-31-2005, 02:38 PM   #27
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Also, jurs I came up with that a long time ago, even though I was wrong.
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Old 01-31-2005, 02:41 PM   #28
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Maybe I should clear something up. I'm not as much suspicious of EB for asking if I had a special role, I'm more paranoid of how friendly he was getting. From reading the postgame of Infiltration it's clear that easily placed trust (in blah at least) is an easy way to get manipulated by wolves. I guess I just overreacted, though.
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Old 01-31-2005, 03:24 PM   #29
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@Afro: Of course we can't completely rule out obscenely complicated reverse-psychology tactics, but I'm going to give some credit to the wolves.

Recall from my last post when I said that it wouldn't be worth it for the wolves to try such a tactic. Night 1 gives them a practically free kill. Why waste that on such a risky strategy? Why try what's been tried before?

Reverse psychology is a fine tactic for the wolves to use, as it's worked once and almost did again on night one. Double reverse psychology just goes over the cliff. If double works, then triple or quadruple could, too, and then you've got yourself thinking in an endless circle. As a wolf, I wouldn't try anything to possibly put suspicion on me on Day 1, as it's a free day.

C'mon, Afro, give me some credit. I'm not asking you to believe that I'm a human from this, but killing stretchy and then putting myself into the open to try to get the humans to do something that's hurt them before in the off chance that I could convince everyone of my humanity on Day 1 is just a bit farfetched.

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Old 01-31-2005, 03:52 PM   #30
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Guido
C'mon, Afro, give me some credit. I'm not asking you to believe that I'm a human from this, but killing stretchy and then putting myself into the open to try to get the humans to do something that's hurt them before in the off chance that I could convince everyone of my humanity on Day 1 is just a bit farfetched.
I don't think it's farfetch'd at all (lawl pokemon). Imagine that you are indeed a wolf. You would be in the BEST possible position as a wolf, with everyone saying "oh he wouldn't do that if he was a wolf." Double reverse psychology is not as complex as you make it sound.

By the way, just so I'm 100% clear on this- I'm sort of playing devil's advocate here. I don't have any more suspicion on Guido than on anyone else. I'm only fighting for this, because it's stupid for you all to accept Guido as human for something that a wolf very easily could have done.
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Old 01-31-2005, 04:03 PM   #31
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If I were indeed a wolf, there would have been MANY much better options for me, most of which would cast NO suspicion on me, so why, in God's name, would I choose this one? Like I said before: FAR too risky for me.

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Old 01-31-2005, 04:06 PM   #32
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Wow, Guido, you're getting awfully defensive of yourself. Sounds wolfish to me...


Of course, people may actually think that. But I do agree with you. This whole double reverse psychology ordeal is very possible, but like Guido said, there are plenty of better things to do. And ESPECIALLY on night one, when everyone is completely clueless already. There is no need to play mind games with anybody at this stage in the game.
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Old 01-31-2005, 04:28 PM   #33
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Now that I've spent more time analyzing everything, I'm posting more paranoid suspicions. It seems that Afro, EB, and Cypher are in a three-way alliance. Afro and Cypher are both using the similar arguement that makes Guido look guilty, while at the same time they're just saying that Guido shouldn't be ruled out. This has lead me to believe that the ACE group is either the Masons or the Wolves, and that they want Guido to stay as a suspect so people don't rule him out as a lynch target.
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Old 01-31-2005, 04:39 PM   #34
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Haha, funny you mention that, Hans, since, if you recall from Manhunt, my NOT flipping out and being extremely defensive was used against me (quite correctly, as I mentioned in the postgame) to get me lynched. The only other time I had to do so I was human, too.

Of course, yeah, I could have realized this and changed my ways, blahblahblah, but I was ecstatic to find out that I was human this game, and I'm not going to go down without a fight.

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Old 01-31-2005, 04:52 PM   #35
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Matt, the ACE Group was a joke. Nobody would seriously come out and say "Me, Afro, and Cypher are wolves. We're the ACE Team!"

Seriously, you keep looking into what I say waaaay too much or overlooking the obvious...
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Old 01-31-2005, 04:59 PM   #36
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Do not vote Guido tonight. He is too valuable to the humans to make a mistake of lynching him. I'm sure he will be seen tonight , and then work can spread of whether or not he is a wolf, but do not make this your dar one lynching, or you are sorely on the wrong track in this game. Since we absolutely have to take out someone today, if there is no good evidence against anyone, which I beleive is impossible since it is the first day, I will be voting for the least active player. I hope others follow the good example.
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Old 01-31-2005, 05:06 PM   #37
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Hi guys, sorry for not posting earlier... I've been out getting a sports physical (Turn head and cough etc...) and just got back, not to mention the tetanus shot has made my mousing hand feel like a goddamn brick.

This game is taking an interesting turn already, but I'd like to propose a thought:

This 'double reverse psychology' game will get all of us nowhere... The reasons why are pretty simple:

The game of reverse psychology is a chain; All you are doing by playing this game is guessing where the 'chain' has ended. You see, you can speculate all you want whether it's a single or double-reverse psychology loop, but theoretically it is impossible to back up this logic. In essence, by taking a stance either way based on double or single-reverse psychology you will be taking a 50/50 stab at best since it is impossible to determine the motives the perpetrator had for the action (whether they were internally thinking of a double or single chain). If we want to eliminate the wolves we have to approach this way of sifting through information and events differently.
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Old 01-31-2005, 05:11 PM   #38
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Well this is an interesting first night kill. You can only wonder why they would pick Stretchy when there are so many other people I would have picked over her. (no offense) In any event, it doesn't give us much to work with on day 1 other than what has already been said, so I am a bit lost on who to vote for. However, assuming Stretchy wasn't the guardian, the guardian really has a tough job on choosing who to protect. There is no super-power in this game (except maybe alian) so everyone if basically fair game. However, it does seem they are trying to lynch people that will leave us little to work with, or at least be confused, so I would recommend protecting players such as EB, Guido, Myself, Cypher, etc. I don't mean to sound too wolfish saying "OMG PROTECT ME PLZ!". All I'm asking is the guardian really think about who to protect. We'll find out after tonight if they plan on lynching the most active players like in Infiltration, or if they would rather aim for the lower-risk players. The first day is always the hardest.
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Old 01-31-2005, 05:22 PM   #39
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It's hard to tell just how the wolves with play. If they start going after all the good players, and one of the good players happened to be their devil, then they just kicked themselves in the shins, bad. I therefore don't think they'll be doing this. I think the wolves will realise that their best strategy is to vote low-key, human seeming players, so that, even if they do accidentally knock out their devil, at that level of player it won't be all that much of a loss to them. I don't think the wolves are will risk taking out the most skilled players just yet, because it could potentially harm their one advantage in the game. This doesn't mean I don't think I shouldn't be guarded
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Old 01-31-2005, 05:26 PM   #40
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Quote:
You can only wonder why they would pick Stretchy when there are so many other people I would have picked over her
Notice how wolf kills always follow that pattern on Night 1. They don't want to give us anything to work with. Looks like they did a good job.

And it's been said before, but really all we have to go on are voting patterns, and Day 1 we have none. Hopefully we get lucky and hit a wolf today, but I doubt it =\
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Plus I do cool programming in-house that you'll never see. =O
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