TWG XLl: IN SOVIET RUSSIA, WOLF LYNCHES YOU!

[DiscoBobbyPARANOiA]

It's just an average day at the military base, which is located in Soviet Russia.

But for some reason, you feel like things are about to change...

NIGHT ONE STORY SUCKS BECAUSE STORY STARTS ON DAY ONE LOL

PMs have been sent out.

EVERYONE GOT ONE, EVEN HUMANS.

If you did not get a PM, TELL ME.

~~~~~~~~~~

16 players:

Team Evil: (4 players)
1 Wolf
1 Wolf Seer
2 Wolf Vigilantes

Team Good: (12 players)
4 Humans
2 Seers
2 Kamikazes
2 Red Millers
2 Blue Millers

Wolf - Basic part of team evil. Comes back as NOT HUMAN to the seer.

Wolf seer - Checks one person for color each night. The results come AS DAY BEGINS on the next morning. He/she will receive BLUE, GREEN, and in the unlikely event that they check another wolf, RED. Comes back as NOT HUMAN to the seer.

Wolf Vigilante - ONCE per game, the wolf vigilante can choose to kill a person in the game. This kill is displayed as a kill during the night, and is not seperated from the night kill. IF the Wolf Vigilante hits a Kamikaze with his kill, the Kamikaze's power DOES NOT activate. He dies like a normal human. Comes back as NOT HUMAN to the seer.

Human - Meat. Comes back as HUMAN to the Seer, and GREEN to the Wolf Seer.

Seer - Checks one person for color each night. The results come AS DAY BEGINS on the next morning. He/She will receive HUMAN and NOT HUMAN. Comes back as HUMAN to the other Seer, and BLUE to the Wolf Seer.

Kamikaze - In the event that the Kamikaze is night killed, a RANDOM wolf will be killed. This will be displayed as a kill at night and will not be seperated from the night kill. Comes back as HUMAN to the Seer, and BLUE to the Wolf Seer.

Blue Miller - Meat. But with a twist. The Blue Miller comes back as HUMAN to the seer, and BLUE to the Wolf Seer.

Red Miller - Meat. But with a twist. The Red Miller comes back as NOT HUMAN to the seer, and GREEN to the Wolf Seer.

~~~~~~~~~~

Player list:

01. Kilgamayan
02. Afrobean
03. Stoic RoivaS
04. Rioting
05. talisman
06. Tokzic
07. FoJaR
08. iggymatrixcounter
09. roundbox
10. Shashakiro
11. Omeganitros
12. Wilkin
13. JurseyRider724
14. XObserveRx
15. nforcer06164
16. blahblah18

It is now night one. Night talking is allowed. OH SNAP! Night ends at MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. (EST)

Get me those PMs.

EDIT: FORGOT THE STORY LOL

[talisman]

hey nocturnal posting.

What is this no-guardian nonsense? =/

[Kilgamayan]

night post hehe

[Wilkin]

Nice evasion of the caps filter.

[talisman]

do millers know who they are?

I'm assuming not, but it would be good to clarify.

[DiscoBobbyPARANOiA]

MILLERS DO NOT KNOW WHO THEY ARE.

[iggymatrixcounter]

Originally Posted by talisman

What is this no-guardian nonsense? =/

Because 2 seers plus guardian = auto slaughter of the wolves. And I'm not talking a long drawn out battle where luck plays a factor, I'm talking an all-out blood bath of reds with an iron clad alliance lead by a cunning but tyranical seer force hammering away at everyone, shooting chopped up wolf pieces in a metal casket.... then burning it all in a furnace heated seven times its normal temparature just to make sure nothing can crawl or much less evolve out of the destruction and obliteration of the reds.

[iggymatrixcounter]

That being said, the seers need to adopt an unofficial way of making sure they don't overlap too much in their choices. I want to see the best possible use of seer tactics here.

Try to psych out the other seer by picking either an odd or even number from the players list or something. Try to avoid what you think is the best seer pick because undoubtablely the other seer will be thinking the same thing. Try to make your picks as random as possible so you both have at worst a random chance of picking the same person. Picking someone that looks wolfy may be good but the other seer may do the same.

However, even if you found a wolf, your job is an uphill one since you can't just come out and say X is a wolf. You could but you would throw yourself into death so the risks and benefits would have to be weighed. (Considering you may be sitting on a few more seer picks that may be lost if kept to yourself after revealing a wolf.)

You're also better off by chancing that your pick is legit than taking into the fact that they may be a miller. You wouldn't reveal yourself to a non-human seer result so you may as well try to push for them to be gone since it would be a better chance than picking from the rest of the players list as a lynch vote.

Oh and I'm a seer, and I dare the wolves to wolf me tonight..... do it.

[xObserveRx]

Originally Posted by Iggymatrixcounter

Oh and I'm a seer, and I dare the wolves to wolf me tonight..... do it.

If I was a wolf, I'd hit it.

[Afrobean]

hay guys

With 2 seers and no guardian, the wolves are free to come out as a seer if they want. Both of the real seers would just have to go "oh he might be the other seer" and the only remedy to this would be both seers coming out which probably is a bad idea (and if the seer who came out first is legit, then the second one would come out to verify there isn't a "third" seer and even then both seers are as good as dead.

However, I'd say that if one of the seers sees two or more wolves then it may actually be better for that seer to come out. I'm at work now, so I can't really run any numbers, but yeah whatever. Only big flaw I see is trusting the seer, which would probably have to have both seers come out to verify there isn't a third (meaning both seers would be dead). The only ways that could fail at all is if one of the seers is dead or if one of them is dead and the a wolf somehow knows to fake seer right away.

I dunno... will give more thought tomorrow after I get home and get some sleep. tl;dr version: seers are stuck being unable to come out, but it may be an ok idea to sacrifice both seers if multiple wolves have been seer'd.

[Afrobean]

wait there is only 1 red miller, right?

[Kilgamayan]

Originally Posted by DiscoBobbyPARANOiA

2 Red Millers

[FoJaR]

so wait, should the other seer come out or not?

[Afrobean]

@kilga: oh

my idea is worthless then

disregard previous post

[JurseyRider734]

Well, if the seer sees a wolf throughout the game and has previously seen someone as blue or human, chances are they should PROBABLY tell that person so they can relay it to the thread. Well, if they're human. Not if they're blue. The seer should probably ally with the seen humans so they have people to relay back to the thread. It also might be wise to tell multiple people in your alliance to say it in the thread and therefore the wolves will probably have a hard time deciding which to vote. But, the whole alliance should not say it because we don't want the wolves figuring out who the whole alliance is.

[nforcer06164]

Why is Wilkin bold and red in the players' list? And is cardflipping in this game?

We have no master wolf this game, and every seer pick comes up as 100% legit (except in the case of the Red Millers). Still, having red millers is better than having a master wolf, because EVERY seered human can be trusted. However, with a wolf seer. My strategy in this situation is to have each seer contact a seered human, and have them act as a front for that seer.

BOTH SEERS HAVE TO CONTACT THEIR RESPECTIVE HUMANS. If this happens, the wolf seer will not come out to any human. You know why? If a third human comes out in the thread saying "sup I was seer'd", than each seer can check each other the next night, and the wolf seer will be gone. So, I think our best move is for each seer to form an alliance with their respective humans right away. Who knows? We might get lucky and have a cross-check, allowing for an inflated alliance to form.

This game is a bit complex, and if a seer does get hit Night 1, infiltration is likely. I'd like to see any counterpoints to this idea before we go ahead with it. My biggest fear in this plan is if there isn't cardflipping; it's impossible to know if a seer has been hit. Still, the fact remains that the wolves wouldn't know either.

[talisman]

only time anyone comes out on the thread to say something is if a red has been seered. and the person who comes out is a green that the seer has seered, not the seer themselves. this person would then be sacrificing themselves for the (initially) 60% chance of getting a wolf (3/5). this would all be assuming that the green trusted the seer as a genuine seer.

[DiscoBobbyPARANOiA]

Originally Posted by nforcer06164

Why is Wilkin bold and red in the players' list? And is cardflipping in this game?

The only red bold text I see is 'NOT HUMAN' and 'RED' in all of their occurrences, and there is not cardflipping.

[nforcer06164]

Sorry, that was my fault. I think I realized this thread had started because I searched for "Wilkin" with the forum search function. Somebody had commented on his custom title, but I couldn't find a post of his. That caused his name to be bold and red.

[nforcer06164]

Originally Posted by talisman

only time anyone comes out on the thread to say something is if a red has been seered. and the person who comes out is a green that the seer has seered, not the seer themselves. this person would then be sacrificing themselves for the (initially) 60% chance of getting a wolf (3/5). this would all be assuming that the green trusted the seer as a genuine seer.

What I'm trying to weigh here is the advantage of guaranteed humans coming out vs. hidden alliance. Of course, if the seered humans do not come out, they are safer from getting wolfed. However, if they do not come out, we might make the mistake of lynching a guaranteed human. Furthermore, seered humans coming out gives us a smaller lynching pool.

Remember, the very reason I want to have two seered humans to come forward is to eliminate the possibility of a "fake seer" fooling a human and steering us the wrong way. If we can confirm the integrity of the two true seers, we cannot be fooled by the wolf seer. There are three impediments to this plan:

1. One or both seers sees a wolf
2. A seer is wolfed, thereby making it safe for the wolf seer to come out.
3. A wary seer or human does not follow the plan

Of course, there is a certain advantage in one of the "impediments" as well. Say both seers don't come out immediately. This is perfect bait for the wolf seer, who, thinking he's safe and fronts a random human because a second seer cannot come out for reasons previously stated. Then we'd end up with three seers, thereby making the next night cycle a roundabout seering that would inevitably remove the wolf seer.

Remember that the wolves are going to want to eliminate the seers as soon as possible, and therefore are going to attempt to hit blues rather than confirmed humans. Also, remember that if both humans come out in the thread, they can help the seers communicate and coordinate picks. If they can collaborate somehow to verify that both seers are legit, they can stay in contact to get the most out of their picks as possible. Remember that the wolves can only hit one person per night, so if the seers are in contact, the wolves have almost no advantage to hitting a confirmed human.

After the seers get in contact, seered humans can remain hidden unless they come under suspicion. One or two other confirmed humans can verify it and thus we remove suspects from the lynching pool, getting us ever closer to the wolves.

This plan will only work if it is implemented on DAY ONE. If it is utilized after that, the risk of infiltration is far too great. If we don't get a second seer, the plan should be null and we'll have to move forward without it. If anyone sees some sort of flaw in this plan, please vocalize it. Otherwise, I'd like some support in seeing this plan implemented; I believe it will give us the greatest chance of victory.