Go Back   Flash Flash Revolution > General Discussion > Chit Chat

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 10-21-2013, 11:03 PM   #1
leonid
I am leonid
Retired StaffFFR Simfile AuthorFFR Music ProducerD7 Elite KeysmasherFFR Veteran
 
leonid's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: MOUNTAIN VIEW
Age: 34
Posts: 8,080
Default Imagine There's A Gamble Where

You can only bet once, and you will bet all your savings, your house, and basically everything that belongs to you, in dollars.
ofc you get disqualified if your net value is negative

If you win, you get back double your bet.

If you lose, you get nothing.

What's the lowest chance of winning that you will accept and play this gamble for, and why?
__________________



Proud member of Team No
leonid is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-21-2013, 11:05 PM   #2
top
Banned
FFR Veteran
 
Join Date: Apr 2012
Posts: 1,907
Default Re: Imagine There's A Gamble Where

100% fuck that shit
top is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-21-2013, 11:07 PM   #3
Choofers
FFR Player
FFR Music Producer
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Age: 33
Posts: 6,205
Default Re: Imagine There's A Gamble Where

I'm a Las Vegas native.

I know what gambling does to people, leonid.

and to have you make light of it just makes me sick.
__________________
Choofers is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-21-2013, 11:08 PM   #4
leonid
I am leonid
Retired StaffFFR Simfile AuthorFFR Music ProducerD7 Elite KeysmasherFFR Veteran
 
leonid's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: MOUNTAIN VIEW
Age: 34
Posts: 8,080
Default Re: Imagine There's A Gamble Where

I will prolly go for 95% or something
__________________



Proud member of Team No
leonid is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-21-2013, 11:09 PM   #5
Wayward Vagabond
Confirmed Heartbreaker
Retired StaffFFR Simfile AuthorFFR Veteran
 
Wayward Vagabond's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2012
Age: 35
Posts: 5,856
Default Re: Imagine There's A Gamble Where

does this have to do with some new google service you're working on because i don't like where this is going
__________________
Wayward Vagabond is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-21-2013, 11:09 PM   #6
Choofers
FFR Player
FFR Music Producer
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Age: 33
Posts: 6,205
Default Re: Imagine There's A Gamble Where

new yt feature, double your views or get all your videos deleted
__________________
Choofers is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-21-2013, 11:09 PM   #7
L.B.D.D
FFR Player
 
L.B.D.D's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: San Francisco, CA
Posts: 2,949
Default Re: Imagine There's A Gamble Where

70%
L.B.D.D is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-21-2013, 11:10 PM   #8
Choofers
FFR Player
FFR Music Producer
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Age: 33
Posts: 6,205
Default Re: Imagine There's A Gamble Where

t͈̤̤̗̦̘͢h̨̥̺̦̭i̥s̤̪͡ ̛i̶̲s̩̪̙̻̮̭ ̗̜j̸̠̠̯̹ú̘st̜͈̬͟ͅ ͎̟͙̩ṭhe͎̘ͅ ͏͕̖͍̰b̮͉͙̤e̥̙̩̬g̡͙̺͕̬̼͙͔i̶n͔̝̤͠n̩̘͉̲in̦̣͇͈̳g̴̯̪͇͇̗̺
__________________
Choofers is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-21-2013, 11:10 PM   #9
leonid
I am leonid
Retired StaffFFR Simfile AuthorFFR Music ProducerD7 Elite KeysmasherFFR Veteran
 
leonid's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: MOUNTAIN VIEW
Age: 34
Posts: 8,080
Default Re: Imagine There's A Gamble Where

nope but I do like how people relate to google every single thing I do

it's like i'm a walking google

in fact i'm a mere engineer that can be replaced any time
__________________



Proud member of Team No
leonid is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-21-2013, 11:11 PM   #10
Guest15937
One-handed elite
FFR Veteran
 
Guest15937's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 1,464
Default Re: Imagine There's A Gamble Where

100%, hands down (pardon the pun). This simply isn't a bet I could take.
__________________
The renegade has betrayed me.
Guest15937 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-21-2013, 11:12 PM   #11
One Winged Angel
Anime Avatars ( ◜◡^)っ✂╰⋃╯
Retired StaffFFR Simfile AuthorD8 Godly KeysmasherFFR Veteran
 
One Winged Angel's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Squat Rack
Age: 34
Posts: 10,837
Default Re: Imagine There's A Gamble Where

Nope, never.

I've seen roulette wheels spin the same colour 20+ times in a row and a bunch of other bullshit at casinos, fuck probability.
__________________


Quote:
Originally Posted by ilikexd View Post
i want to be cucked by cirno
One Winged Angel is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-21-2013, 11:18 PM   #12
DossarLX ODI
Batch Manager
Game Manager, Song Release Coordinator
Game ManagerSimfile JudgeFFR Simfile AuthorD7 Elite KeysmasherFFR Veteran
 
DossarLX ODI's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: USA
Age: 29
Posts: 14,855
Default Re: Imagine There's A Gamble Where

101%
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by hi19hi19 View Post
oh boy, it's STIFF, I'll stretch before I sit down at the computer so not I'm not as STIFF next time I step a file
DossarLX ODI is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-21-2013, 11:18 PM   #13
qqwref
stepmania archaeologist
Retired StaffFFR Simfile AuthorFFR Veteran
 
qqwref's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Age: 34
Posts: 4,090
Default Re: Imagine There's A Gamble Where

It would have to be pretty dang high (in the 90%s, I think). I could recover from losing all my monetary assets, but I really really wouldn't want to have to.
__________________
Best AAA: Policy In The Sky [Oni] (81)
Best SDG: PANTS (86)
Best FC: Future Invasion (93)
qqwref is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-21-2013, 11:19 PM   #14
Reincarnate
x'); DROP TABLE FFR;--
Retired StaffFFR Veteran
 
Reincarnate's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Posts: 6,332
Default Re: Imagine There's A Gamble Where

Edit: misread the question

I'll say 99.99%

If this were one time that is. Iterated version would go higher obv.

Last edited by Reincarnate; 10-21-2013 at 11:25 PM..
Reincarnate is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-21-2013, 11:23 PM   #15
ilikexd
Retired StaffFFR Simfile AuthorD7 Elite KeysmasherFFR Veteran
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 3,205
Default Re: Imagine There's A Gamble Where

The numbers are kind of arbitrary, but having no wealth would be about 20 times worse than having as much wealth as I have now; having twice as much wealth as I have now would be about 1.5 times better. So no wealth would be a loss of 19, and double wealth would be a gain of .5

.5 * x > 19 * (100-x) where 'x' is the chance of winning
approximately 97.4%

The % you'd reasonably be willing to accept depends on how much you value the change in wealth to no wealth and wealth to double wealth.
ilikexd is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-21-2013, 11:33 PM   #16
Reincarnate
x'); DROP TABLE FFR;--
Retired StaffFFR Veteran
 
Reincarnate's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Posts: 6,332
Default Re: Imagine There's A Gamble Where

It depends on your utility curve and where the different states fall

Shit is cray
Reincarnate is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-21-2013, 11:35 PM   #17
ilikexd
Retired StaffFFR Simfile AuthorD7 Elite KeysmasherFFR Veteran
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 3,205
Default Re: Imagine There's A Gamble Where

can you explain what you mean in layman's terms
ilikexd is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-21-2013, 11:38 PM   #18
leonid
I am leonid
Retired StaffFFR Simfile AuthorFFR Music ProducerD7 Elite KeysmasherFFR Veteran
 
leonid's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: MOUNTAIN VIEW
Age: 34
Posts: 8,080
Default Re: Imagine There's A Gamble Where

This game is the kind where you MUST win at any cost.

The question asks about how low a probability can go for you to stay confident that it will happen
__________________



Proud member of Team No
leonid is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-21-2013, 11:40 PM   #19
ilikexd
Retired StaffFFR Simfile AuthorD7 Elite KeysmasherFFR Veteran
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 3,205
Default Re: Imagine There's A Gamble Where

Quote:
Originally Posted by leonid View Post
This game is the kind where you MUST win at any cost.

The question asks about how low a probability can go for you to stay confident that it will happen
obviously 100% for anyone then

you can only be 99% confident that you'll win if you win 99% of the time
ilikexd is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-21-2013, 11:41 PM   #20
leonid
I am leonid
Retired StaffFFR Simfile AuthorFFR Music ProducerD7 Elite KeysmasherFFR Veteran
 
leonid's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: MOUNTAIN VIEW
Age: 34
Posts: 8,080
Default Re: Imagine There's A Gamble Where

Why do people always overthink my questions
is it because my avatar is a robot
__________________



Proud member of Team No
leonid is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 12:08 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.1
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright FlashFlashRevolution