TWG XCI: Waned Lichens - Page 2

Afrobean · 11-17-2009, 10:01 AM

If all we allowed for was HARD evidence, the only wolves lynched would be ones who are seer'd or caught definitively in lies.

And even then, there are cases of faked seerings or non-wolves lying so even that's not conclusive. Look at last game, our seer was guilty of both fake seering AND getting caught in a lie (faked log, no less).

Dev, you act like what I do, I do at random. That's not right. It's more like deduction through gut-infused over-analysis. It's not like I'm getting I'm rolling the die and getting lucky here. I'm picking my targets to attack when I see something that doesn't feel right to me.

Quote:

Because faulty reasoning means that your track record still is based on random chance

Just because ONE of the pillars my attack is based may be faulty doesn't mean they all are, and just because a person CLAIMS my attack on them is based on faulty reasons doesn't mean it truly is. Often the things I attack a person for are things they don't consciously do. For example, Viccica made a post stating "Activity post" and I pointed out this happened last game where she was a wolf. If she is a wolf this game, she might claim my attacking her for this wasn't a legitimate reason to attack, but I feel that it's something she might be doing subconsciously as a wolf to attempt to make herself stand out a little more (knowing that NOT standing out will make her appear more wolfy). Or how about Syhto last game where she was "too drunk to talk TWG" and I took this to mean she had something to hide. Was I right? Yeah, I was right. Would she admit that her minor inebriation caused this slip-up? No, she'd probably say I was reading too much into what she said. But she didn't consciously think about the implications of what she was saying, so is it really fair for her to say whether or not I did a good job of picking her brain?

FictionJunction · 11-17-2009, 10:01 AM

hi devonin o/

**devonin** · 11-17-2009, 10:05 AM

Good and reasoned logic != "Only hard facts" The only hard facts are "You're a wolf" or "You're a human" etc and especially with no seer, such information -should- never enter the game at all.

But someone posting "activity post" and turning out to be a wolf and then posting "activity post" in the next game, and saying "Well now you're under suspicion of being a wolf!" isn't good -or- reasoned logic IMO. Look back, all KINDS of people make "obligatory human post" posts whether they're red, green or blue.

IE. Whether she's a wolf or not this game, "That's not a valid reason to suspect me" IS a valid objection.

**devonin** · 11-17-2009, 10:05 AM

Ohai fic

FictionJunction · 11-17-2009, 10:09 AM

I'm in love with devonin.

FictionJunction · 11-17-2009, 10:10 AM

just throwing that out there

**devonin** · 11-17-2009, 10:24 AM

Afrobean · 11-17-2009, 10:28 AM

dev it sounds like you're defending vicc specifically

It sounds less like you're giving an attempt at refuting my methods and are merely mad that I'm attacking vicc.

**devonin** · 11-17-2009, 10:30 AM

I was trying to think of how to characterize your information gathering style at this game, and I've basically determined that your technique is to arbitrarily accuse everyone and see who looks flustered.

**devonin** · 11-17-2009, 10:31 AM

And if it would make you feel better, I could make a second post, which carried absolutely no new or useful information but referred to your use of Syhto's "Too drunk to talk" to prove that she was a wolf too. But I figured you'd be clever enough to see the point I was making, and not get hung up on the particular case I picked out of the two in the post?

Afrobean · 11-17-2009, 10:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by devonin

I was trying to think of how to characterize your information gathering style at this game, and I've basically determined that your technique is to arbitrarily accuse everyone and see who looks flustered.

Not quite "arbitrary", but even if that was so, the person's response is only a part of it. Sometimes a person's response makes me be less suspicious of them, other times more. It all depends on a case-by-case basis. Sometimes the lack of a real "response" tells me something about the person, sometimes it does not. It all depends on the sort of attack, the sort of person, the situation.

Things might appear random and stupid to you, but they're far from random (and only sometimes stupid). I assure you, I am not a lucky person. I wouldn't be guessing wolves on luck alone.

**devonin** · 11-17-2009, 10:43 AM

Still you have to admit that 6 posts into the game, you saying "I have all the wolves" even half in jest, looks a little ridiculous.

**devonin** · 11-17-2009, 10:45 AM

Off for a few hours for some errand running.

Afrobean · 11-17-2009, 10:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by devonin

Still you have to admit that 6 posts into the game, you saying "I have all the wolves" even half in jest, looks a little ridiculous.

Quote:

ridiculous

...

Yes, Devonin. That's the joke.

**DarkManticoreX2** · 11-17-2009, 10:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by devonin

Still you have to admit that 6 posts into the game, you saying "I have all the wolves" even half in jest, looks a little ridiculous.

Or it means he's a wolf, since wolves are the only people that "have all the wolves" on night 1

Afrobean · 11-17-2009, 11:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DarkManticoreX2

Or it means he's a wolf, since wolves are the only people that "have all the wolves" on night 1

aw you saw through my cunning ploy

**iggymatrixcounter** · 11-17-2009, 11:22 AM

Every game afro seems to get in some huge nonessential argument with someone. Devon, I expected more from you to not fall into this same trap he does EVERY GAME.

@afro: I admire your style, but bro you have to admit that most of the time people do not even pay attention to a lot of what you say. (Your wolf picks are usually better than random yes, but everything else is ignored most of the time).

That being said, I always start to suspect people who essentially say, "I'm here, I'm posting, and I'll be around if needed." but do not offer anything new to the table. So far gun, manti, freaky, freezin, and vic fall into this category. However, out of those 5 I really only have further suspicion on freezin and vic. But I do not think they could both be wolves together.

I like the night posting that's going on so far. Too bad it's mostly a battle between devon and afro. About half of the players have posted so far and the other half have yet to do so.

@fiction: you have managed to make 5 posts.... none of which have any sustenance at all. I think you can do better, or at least refrain from making useless posts anytime afro or devon say something.

My gut says that temote will be wolfed tonight. XD

Afrobean · 11-17-2009, 11:46 AM

why temote?

Why not you or gun? Why not me or fiction or manti? Why not someone who "DEFINITELY" wouldn't be guarded like freaky or frezinice?

Viccica · 11-17-2009, 12:25 PM

I was posting that to try and prove that I'm actually going to be active this game. I know I was really inactive last game and I don't want you guys to think I'm being inactive again...

As for not contributing anything to the thread well.. It's night one. Nothing's happened. I was inviting people to talk to me on AIM. I had nothing TO contribute at the time since I hadn't talked to anyone yet.

Viccica · 11-17-2009, 12:26 PM

Hiiii.... I'm here.

11-17-2009, 10:05 AM	#23
devonin Very Grave Indeed Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Ontario, Canada Age: 40 Posts: 10,098	Re: TWG XCI: Waned Lichens Good and reasoned logic != "Only hard facts" The only hard facts are "You're a wolf" or "You're a human" etc and especially with no seer, such information -should- never enter the game at all. But someone posting "activity post" and turning out to be a wolf and then posting "activity post" in the next game, and saying "Well now you're under suspicion of being a wolf!" isn't good -or- reasoned logic IMO. Look back, all KINDS of people make "obligatory human post" posts whether they're red, green or blue. IE. Whether she's a wolf or not this game, "That's not a valid reason to suspect me" IS a valid objection.

11-17-2009, 10:05 AM	#24
devonin Very Grave Indeed Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Ontario, Canada Age: 40 Posts: 10,098	Re: TWG XCI: Waned Lichens Ohai fic

11-17-2009, 10:24 AM	#27
devonin Very Grave Indeed Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Ontario, Canada Age: 40 Posts: 10,098	Re: TWG XCI: Waned Lichens <3

11-17-2009, 10:28 AM	#28
Afrobean Admiral in the Red Army Join Date: Dec 2003 Location: the moon Age: 36 Posts: 13,262	Re: TWG XCI: Waned Lichens dev it sounds like you're defending vicc specifically It sounds less like you're giving an attempt at refuting my methods and are merely mad that I'm attacking vicc. __________________

11-17-2009, 10:30 AM	#29
devonin Very Grave Indeed Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Ontario, Canada Age: 40 Posts: 10,098	Re: TWG XCI: Waned Lichens I was trying to think of how to characterize your information gathering style at this game, and I've basically determined that your technique is to arbitrarily accuse everyone and see who looks flustered.

11-17-2009, 10:31 AM	#30
devonin Very Grave Indeed Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Ontario, Canada Age: 40 Posts: 10,098	Re: TWG XCI: Waned Lichens And if it would make you feel better, I could make a second post, which carried absolutely no new or useful information but referred to your use of Syhto's "Too drunk to talk" to prove that she was a wolf too. But I figured you'd be clever enough to see the point I was making, and not get hung up on the particular case I picked out of the two in the post?

11-17-2009, 10:43 AM	#32
devonin Very Grave Indeed Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Ontario, Canada Age: 40 Posts: 10,098	Re: TWG XCI: Waned Lichens Still you have to admit that 6 posts into the game, you saying "I have all the wolves" even half in jest, looks a little ridiculous.

11-17-2009, 10:45 AM	#33
devonin Very Grave Indeed Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Ontario, Canada Age: 40 Posts: 10,098	Re: TWG XCI: Waned Lichens Off for a few hours for some errand running.

11-17-2009, 11:22 AM	#37
iggymatrixcounter FFR Veteran Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: OH Age: 37 Posts: 1,924	Re: TWG XCI: Waned Lichens Every game afro seems to get in some huge nonessential argument with someone. Devon, I expected more from you to not fall into this same trap he does EVERY GAME. @afro: I admire your style, but bro you have to admit that most of the time people do not even pay attention to a lot of what you say. (Your wolf picks are usually better than random yes, but everything else is ignored most of the time). That being said, I always start to suspect people who essentially say, "I'm here, I'm posting, and I'll be around if needed." but do not offer anything new to the table. So far gun, manti, freaky, freezin, and vic fall into this category. However, out of those 5 I really only have further suspicion on freezin and vic. But I do not think they could both be wolves together. I like the night posting that's going on so far. Too bad it's mostly a battle between devon and afro. About half of the players have posted so far and the other half have yet to do so. @fiction: you have managed to make 5 posts.... none of which have any sustenance at all. I think you can do better, or at least refrain from making useless posts anytime afro or devon say something. My gut says that temote will be wolfed tonight. XD __________________ lastfm PANDORA

11-17-2009, 11:46 AM	#38
Afrobean Admiral in the Red Army Join Date: Dec 2003 Location: the moon Age: 36 Posts: 13,262	Re: TWG XCI: Waned Lichens why temote? Why not you or gun? Why not me or fiction or manti? Why not someone who "DEFINITELY" wouldn't be guarded like freaky or frezinice? __________________

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